Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Jacksonville lost a key piece of its offense last week when WR Christian Kirk broke his collarbone late in the second half, while their other two starting WRs are also dealing with injuries.
- Philadelphia will likely be without tight end Dallas Goedert for the third straight game due to a hamstring injury.
- The Eagles’ offense had some struggles to start the season but seems to have found its groove recently, averaging 370 total yards and 32.5 points over the last two weeks.
- Philadelphia has been extremely run-heavy since its Week 5 bye, ranking 31st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) during that stretch.
- At least one team has scored 30+ points in each of the last four Jaguars games.
How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville has stumbled along this season to a 2-6 record, although its two wins have come in the last four games and they narrowly lost to a very good Packers team just last week. The Jaguars have continued to struggle after their epic collapse to end the 2023 season and head coach Doug Pederson could be on the hot seat very soon, especially with the murderer’s row of opponents the Jaguars have the next four weeks in the Eagles, Vikings, Lions, and Texans. The Jacksonville offense has been around the middle of the league this season and has had some nice games, but the Jaguars have had a few turnovers at the wrong times and have not been good enough to overcome their defensive struggles. While four of the Jaguars’ six losses have been by five points or less, the Jaguars rank 32nd in defensive DVOA and have been getting shredded through the air.
The Jaguars’ offense will be missing a key piece with WR Christian Kirk out for the season due to a collarbone injury, and he will likely be replaced by Parker Washington, who did some nice things last year when given opportunities late in the season. Their perimeter wide receivers, rookie phenom Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, both picked up injuries in Week 8 as well, although both were able to log a limited practice on Wednesday and have a decent shot to play in this game. Tight end Evan Engram has been back for a couple of weeks now and should have a massive role in the passing game with Kirk out of the picture. As for the running game, Tank Bigsby has outperformed Travis Etienne this season and seems to be “the guy” for the Jaguars now. Etienne has missed some time but is expected to return this week. We can expect a 1A/1B situation in the backfield, with Bigsby as the lead back and Etienne getting a few carries and playing in some passing situations.
The Jaguars have leaned heavier into the run this year than in past years as they try to mask their struggling defense. They rank 23rd in the league in PROE this year, and the loss of Kirk will likely keep them trying to tilt that direction for as long as they can. The Eagles also rank third in PFF pass rush grade and sixth in coverage grade, so a hobbled and short-handed passing game may struggle in this spot against Philadelphia. Another data point for Jacksonville trying to establish its ground game would be the Eagles’ uncharacteristically poor run defense, which is allowing the ninth-most adjusted line yards per rush attempt in 2024. The Eagles play a very high rate of man coverage and their best WRs against man have been Kirk and Thomas, which is yet another data point suggesting their passing game may struggle in this one. The Jaguars are heavy road underdogs that are dealing with a depleted skill-position corps and a dysfunctional defense, their best path to victory will be through shortening the game with a heavy dose of their running game and short-area passing through Engram, Washington, and the RBs.
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