Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
21.5) at

Bills (
27.5)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • After starting the season as one of the more attackable teams on the ground, the Bills have allowed just 3.73 yards per carry (fourth), 84.0 rush yards per game (fourth), a lowly 3.3% explosive-run rate (sixth), and two rushing scores while forcing four fumbles since Week 4.
  • The Dolphins scored more than 21 points for the first time all season in Week 8 by hitting 27 points against the lowly Cardinals. This Bills defense presents a much more difficult matchup in Week 9.
  • The Bills have leveraged a top-tier defense to have a pass rate over expectation (PROE) within one standard deviation of neutral in six of seven games, exceeding that only in a Week 7 trouncing of the Titans in which the team was never threatened.
  • The Dolphins had only their second game of the season with a positive PROE value in Week 8, clearing one standard deviation above neutral for the first time this season.
  • We should expect the Dolphins to remain aggressive throughout after dropping yet another game to the Cardinals in Week 8 as their season quietly slips away. The Bills, on the other hand, are likely to see their aggression dependent on the game environment.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

I think I’ve figured you out, Mr. Mike McDaniel. Honestly, evaluating McDaniel and his offensive tendencies has been a nightmare this season due to the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the offense with and without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. While Tua was out, I continued to see hints of the same offensive structure that made this team a matchup teams did not want to see on the schedule last season, with the problem being that they did not have a quarterback that could push the ball downfield. That left Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle completely hamstrung to the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, at one point not even running routes beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. That allowed opposing defenses to load the box and cheat safeties up without the threat of deep passing, which made this offense completely one-dimensional even with the same solid play structures on the ground. With Tua now healthy and back in the starting lineup, the threat of downfield passing has opened up the lanes for the run game and kept opposing defenses on their heels. The question then became, “how sharp is Mike McDaniel, really?” To which I responded, “I’m not so sure, but the structure of the offense was still there.” 

That lands me at the following conclusion regarding McDaniel and his level of offensive genius: I would call McDaniel one of the best offensive architects of the previous 20 years, but he has a long way to go as far as in-game adjustments and calling games on the fly are concerned. This is not uncommon for young head coaches and offensive play callers. Look at Bobby Slowik in Houston. The things we say about him are eerily similar in that the structure of the offense is impeccable but his situational play-calling tendencies are atrocious, routinely placing his team in a position they must overcome instead of staying out in front of the down-and-distance equation. All of that to say, McDaniel has now had two weeks of preparation with an again healthy Tua, meaning we should expect his game plan coming in to be solid.

The structure of the run game remained elite without Tua, but the team was routinely facing stacked boxes and cheating safeties which effectively double-covered the holes the blocking scheme was looking to create at the line of scrimmage. I expect those shortcomings to be considerably more improved moving forward. That said, and contrary to public perception, this is not an easy matchup on the ground. After starting the season as one of the more attackable teams on the ground, the Bills have allowed just 3.73 yards per carry (fourth), 84.0 rush yards per game (fourth), a lowly 3.3% explosive-run rate (sixth), and two rushing scores while forcing four fumbles since Week 4. This Bills defense is also healthy for the first time in a while, with only linebacker Terrel Bernard likely questionable heading into the weekend (two limited sessions to begin Week 9 preparations after missing Week 8). Consider this is a strength-on-strength matchup on the ground for the Dolphins, one that brings a wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to expected efficiency. De’Von Achane continues to operate in a true “lead back” role, handling 50% to 60% of the offensive snaps but seeing a much higher opportunity-to-snap ratio than either Raheem Mostert or Jaylen Wright. Furthermore, Achane has target counts of 7 // 7 // 8 in the three fully healthy Tua games this season, with production through the air that would equate to the WR8 this season. And that’s on top of the 10 carries he has seen in each game with both Tua and Mostert active. In other words, you’re getting the WR8 at a salary of $6,700 that also is a good bet for 10-12 carries, including red-zone work.

Tua attempted 38 passes in his first game back from a long absence in Week 8 after attempting 27 passes in his only other fully healthy game this season. In those two games, Hill logged target totals of 12 and nine while Waddle saw only five and six looks. I would call this offense closer to a “Hill and Achane and then everyone else” than I would “Waddle is a clear WR2,” at least as expected volume is concerned. The heavy utilization of fullback Alec Ingold has left the offense at the bottom of the league in 11-personnel utilization, going so far as a season-low 26.2% 11-personnel rate in Week 8. And while Jonnu Smith has finally started to see more featured usage when on the field, his only game above 50% of the offensive snaps played was his 66% last week, with four games in the 6-to-8-target range and three games with a combined six targets. In other words, Hill and Achane take up such a large portion of the volume and emphasis through the air that there typically isn’t a ton left over for the secondary pieces, a chunk that now includes Waddle as well. While the Bills have been borderline elite against the run since Week 4, they have slipped to 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt and have faced the second-most targets to the running back position this season. Achane really stands out as a top on-paper play here.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

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