Bears (

21.5) at
Cards (

23)

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Bears will try to recover from their Hail Mary failure in Washington last week with a trip to the desert against a Cardinals team that is heating up.
• Arizona has beaten the Chargers and Dolphins over the last two weeks by a combined three points to pull themselves into a 3-way tie for first place in the NFC West.
• Chicago’s defense is one of the bigger “run funnel” defenses in the league as their elite secondary and “bend but don’t break” mentality encourages teams to march the field slowly but efficiently.
• Caleb Williams should be able to have a bounce back game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to rush the passer.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears emerged from their Week 7 bye and had a rough go of it offensively for the first three quarters in Washington. They did find their way and fought back for a 15-12 lead before the infamous Hail Mary that cost them the game as time expired. While the outcome was disappointing, the reality is that Chicago fought through adversity and found a way to put up points when they needed to in a game where they had been struggling. This is a good sign. They now find themselves in fourth place in a loaded NFC North and travel to Arizona for a matchup with a rejuvenated Cardinals team this week.

The Bears offense is still a work in progress and has been extremely sensitive to their opponent this season. They have faced three teams that rank in the bottom-10 in the league in defensive DVOA – the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars. In those games, Chicago has averaged 32 points and 360 total yards. In the other four games, the Chicago offense has averaged 12.5 points and 264 total yards. The Cardinals defense ranks 26th in defensive DVOA and 24th in opponent scoring, while having pass defense metrics that are highly concerning. This is definitely a spot that points towards the “Dr. Jekyll” side of the Bears offense and a robust output.

So exactly how will the Bears look to attack this matchup? The Bears are in the bottom half of the league in pass rate relative to expectations as they have protected Williams in difficult spots and iced games with their running game when they are in control. They have yet to find a spot for high volume outside of Week 3 against the Colts. In that game, Williams attempted 52 passes but he has not reached 30 pass attempts in the four games since. D’Andre Swift has one of the bigger workloads in the NFL, despite the fact that he continues to cede some goal line work to Roschon Johnson. Swift is a talented back as a runner and receiver, although his receiving work has been limited against opponents that blitz often and get a lot of pressure on the QB, as he is then asked to stay in and block rather than running routes. The Cardinals rank 31st in blitz rate and 29th in QB pressure rate, so this should be a game where Swift is involved as a receiver, a week after not being targeted against Dan Quinn’s blitz-happy Commanders defense. Arizona also ranks 29th in PFF coverage grade and plays a very high rate of zone coverage. Their overall defensive philosophy is one that looks to eliminate big plays down the field and keep things in front of them while keeping a lot of defenders back in coverage, as evidenced by their low blitz rate. In general, this is a conservative defensive scheme that will try to “bend but not break.” Those types of defenses are most vulnerable in the short areas of the field and underneath routes, or in the middle of the field against receivers who can find openings and/or make plays after the catch. The Bears have the perfect weapons for attacking this scheme as Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet are solid interior options and DJ Moore and Swift are elite playmakers with the ball in their hands. Moore, in particular, is potentially set up for another big game after a couple of quiet ones. His advanced metrics against zone coverage are outstanding and Williams should have clean pockets to get him the ball this week.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::