XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 9 wraps up with the Bucs visiting the Chiefs for a 45.5 total game in which Kansas City is favored by 9. This would have been a much more exciting game if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin hadn’t gotten hurt, but here we are (I was told that RBs get hurt more than WRs so I should draft WRs in Best Ball . . . what the hell is happening this season?).
Kansas City
The Chiefs have installed Kareem Hunt in a really robust role, playing around 60% of the snaps each week and handling 28, 24, and 22 touches since he got fully ramped up with the offense. He hasn’t been good – he’s rocking just 3.7 yards per carry – but he’s been steady, he hasn’t fumbled, and the Chiefs seem to trust him. Carson Steele has been relegated to a change-of-pace role with just a couple of carries per week and then Samaje Perine is the 3rd-down back, though that’s only resulted in a total of 2 carries and 5 targets in the three full-Hunt games. Hunt’s role is awesome and the Bucs are not the elite run defense we’ve seen in years past. The Chiefs are huge home favorites and we generally invest in running backs more for the role than the talent, so we have to view him as a strong play here, especially with how run-heavy the Chiefs have been this season (possibly to somewhat hide the fact that Patrick Mahomes has looked awfully mortal this year and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns). Both Perine and Steele look like punt plays based on their current usage, though if the Chiefs blow the Bucs out, I could potentially see Steele picking up a few more 4th-quarter carries, and at his price, something like 40 yards and a touchdown would give him a good shot at showing up in optimal lineups.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the big question is how much will DeAndre Hopkins play. He played 32% of the snaps last week and caught 2 of 3 targets. I’m not sure he will get to a completely full-time role this week, but probably not that far off. I’d guess like 60-70% of the snaps, which at $7k puts him firmly in play for me in one of the league’s best passing game matchups. As I noted previously, Mahomes has not looked very good at all this season, but it’s hard for me to buy that he just sucks all of a sudden. He’s too young and was too good, there’s no injury explanation, my best guess is it’s some amount of bad luck on interceptions combined with a shaky receiving corps since Rashee Rice got hurt and Hollywood Brown never really made it on the field. Hopkins should help here, hopefully. Xavier Worthy has been the nominal WR1 since Rice got hurt, with 20 targets in his last three games, but only 10 catches for 81 yards. Worthy is fast – really fast – but he’s not yet a good route runner or catcher of footballs thrown in his direction. You’re hoping he catches a long one, which with his speed is certainly a possibility. I’m willing to take shots on him because I think he’s going to come in at pretty low ownership given how bad he’s been, but just be aware it’s a high-risk play even in what should be a solid role. Justin Watson has actually led the Chiefs wide receivers in snaps the last three weeks but it’s come with a grand total of 4 targets, leaving him as nothing more than a punt play. Finally, Mecole Hardman isn’t on the field as much but he’s getting used when he is – he’s also something of a punt play but they’re using him near the red zone as a gadgety kind of guy, similarly to how they used to use Jerick McKinnon – consider him a punt play who almost certainly needs a touchdown, but who has greater odds of getting one than most punt options.
At tight end, we have Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, both of whom have played at least 61% of the snaps in three straight weeks as the Chiefs run more 12-personnel sets to adjust to their weaker WR corps. It seemed clear early in the season that they were taking it easy on Kelce, but they’ve really gotten him involved of late with target counts of 9, 10, 5, and 12 in their last four games. If they’re going to take the brakes off, he’s too cheap at $8,800 and is pretty clearly the strongest pass catcher option on Kansas City. Expect him to be really chalky at this price (he’s only $400 more than Cade freaking Otton). There’s some volatility here given the early season lack of usage. I am slightly nervous that could pop up again at some point if the Chiefs decide to scale him back and try to protect him for the playoffs, a scenario which seems more likely if they’re winning handily. Noah Gray is playing a lot and has seen 2-4 targets in four straight games, making him a reasonable value option in a positive matchup at $2,800. I’d consider Gray a slightly stronger play than Watson and Hardman at similar prices.
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