Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- These two teams have a ridiculous amount of moving pieces this week.
- The Panthers just traded away their top wide receiver in Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing the previous five games while on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, rookie RB Jonathon Brooks got in a full practice as he ramps up for his professional debut, and QB Bryce Young was named the starter for Week 9 even though Andy Dalton returned to a full practice Wednesday.
- Saints QB Derek Carr returned to a limited session Wednesday and is reportedly on track to start in Week 9. CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and S Tyrann Mathieu (illness) were both held out of practice Wednesday, as were WRs Bub Means (ankle) and Cedrick Wilson (hip) and RB Kendre Miller (hamstring).
- Both teams should adopt more of a run-balanced approach on offense considering the state of each respective team, meaning there are very few paths for this game environment to develop into something you could not win without.
How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
After scoring the second-most points through two games in NFL history (91), the Saints have dropped six straight to the Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers while averaging just 15.67 points per game. Much of that second stint came while fighting through significant injuries including a season-ending knee injury to Rashid Shaheed, two games without Chris Olave, three games without Derek Carr, a banged-up Alvin Kamara fighting through a broken hand and rib injuries, four games without Taysom Hill, and numerous offensive-line injuries. Even so, we appeared to be a bit hasty in anointing Klint Kubiak the next coming of coaching Jesus (I was more than guilty of this myself). And with all that, it was probably the injuries to the offensive line that stung the most, as much of what Kubiak aimed to do revolved around a dynamic run game, behind which he brought in heavy play action and pre-snap motion rate designed to provide additional protection for one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league. Without the efficiency on the ground (and their quarterback, and their top two pass catchers, and Hill, etc.), the Saints were relegated to playing catchup with the sticks as opposed to never really falling behind the down-and-distance equation the first two weeks.
Even with the extensive injuries to the offensive line, the team’s run-blocking metrics are not atrocious. The Saints have blocked to a middling 1.91 yards before contact per attempt, which ranks 15th in the league just behind the perceived run-heavy Chargers. Miller’s team-leading 5.8 yards per carry and 4.00 yards after contact per attempt (on only nine carries) appears in legitimate danger of not being available in Week 9 after he picked up a hamstring injury in Week 8. That’s important to the workload of Kamara as two of his three lowest snap-rate games came in the previous two weeks with Miller active, when Kamara handled 14 and 21 opportunities (with a ridiculous 18 targets in that equation) on 57% and 55% snap rates. On that note, you have to go all the way back to Week 3 to find a game in which Kamara did not see seven or more targets, which is truly remarkable. Furthermore, the Saints have played just one opponent ranked in the bottom 10 in run defense all season, a game in which Kamara put up 115 yards and three touchdowns on the ground (Week 2 against the Cowboys). That is also important here considering the Panthers rank 25th in yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.31), 17th in yards allowed per carry (4.5), dead last in rush yards allowed per game (154.6), and dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields (29.3). There aren’t many backs who carry a greater-than-zero chance at a double bonus in the current state of the league, but Kamara is one of them.
The state of the New Orleans passing game has been thrust into shambles, with a core unit now led by Olave and rookie undrafted free agent Mason Tipton. Equanimeous St. Brown played 47% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 8, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of this unit. The Saints were already a 12-personnel-heavy team, something that has only increased through all the injuries out of necessity. With Means now looking unlikely to play due to an ankle injury, the passing game should be even more concentrated amongst Kamara and Olave, with Tipton, St. Brown, and a tight end trio of Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, and Hill (more of a utility man than a true tight end) mixing in for package work. The Panthers also allow the most yards per pass attempt this season at 7.8, so this team should find some level of efficiency through the air when they choose to attack in that manner. On that note, Carr has just one game all season of more than 28 pass attempts (36 against the Falcons), clearly indicating how this offense would prefer to attack when afforded the opportunity.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.