Kickoff Thursday, Oct 31st 8:15pm Eastern
Texans ( 20.25) at
Jets ( 22.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 9 and the official halfway point of the regular season begins with the Texans visiting the Jets. This game has a 42.5 total (which has already dropped 2.5 points from the open) with New York favored by 2. At first glance, having the 2-6 Jets coming off of a loss to the Patriots, favored against the 6-2 Texans feels weird. I don’t know, though. The Texans have scored 188 points and allowed 179, which indicates they’re at least a little bit lucky to be 6-2, and while the Jets aren’t great, their point differential doesn’t look like that of a 2-6 team at 150-170. Let’s see if we can figure out where the edge is on this one.
New York
On the Jets side, chalk Breece Hall flopped last week after RB2 Braelon Allen saw an increase in his snaps and handled 12 opportunities to Hall’s 19. Hall ran much, much better, but Allen stole the touchdown, disappointing quite a few DFS players. Allen has had his moments as a rookie but hasn’t exceeded even 4 yards per carry since way back in Week 4, so one wonders where this spike in volume came from. Overall, though, Hall’s role is robust. We did still see 19 opportunities last week, he leads Allen in touches inside the 10 yard line 8-2, and he’s averaging just shy of 6 targets per game. The matchup isn’t great against a Texans defense that is much easier to attack through the air, but Hall has the talent to succeed in any matchup, and the passing game role keeps him involved everywhere. The only real ding against him is Allen’s tendency to pop up with higher volume in unpredictable ways and the Jets tendency to go pass heavy when close to the end zone. Packers fans will recognize that Aaron Rodgers loves to throw when close in (gotta pad those stats!), leading Hall to have just 10 touches inside the 10 yard line compared to a total of 16 pass attempts. Hall has a bit less touchdown equity than you’d expect for a running back of his normal workload. Allen is a touchdown dependent RB2 who really needs a Hall injury or a broken play to pass off. At his salary, just a short yardage touchdown is unlikely to be enough.
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In the passing game, Rodgers will be missing former Green Bay buddy Allen Lazard, but of course, he did get Davante Adams so the plan of “bring all the Packers over so we can keep losing but just in new uniforms” is going swimmingly. We only have a one game sample of this crew of pass catchers, and on 28 pass attempts the target distribution looked like this: 8 to Garrett Wilson, 6 to Davante Adams, 4 to Tyler Conklin, 3 to each of Breece Hall and Jeremy Ruckert, and the rest to backup/rotational guys. Wilson and Davante are the clear main guys in this offense but they may be kind of sharing the WR1 role here, preventing either of them from ascending to the kind of target heights that we’re used to seeing from a Rodgers WR1. It’s just a one-game sample and I expect they’ll each have good games the rest of the way and that we’ll see volume skew one way or another on a game-by-game basis based on game planning and who’s playing well, but I’d guess the kind of games, like Wilson’s 22 target Week 5, are likely out of the picture. Priced next to each other, exposure to Wilson and Adams is a major decision point on this slate. I’m going to lean towards Wilson as he’s younger, seems to have established a strong connection with Rodgers in the earlier part of the season before Davante arrived, and has been better since Davante arrived with a 10/174/0 line on 17 targets while Adams has a 7/84/0 line on 15 targets. Small samples here, of course, and both are in play but I will have more Wilson. With Lazard out we only saw a modest increase in Mike Williams’ role, going from 33% of the snaps in Week 7 to 58% in Week 8 and seeing 0 targets. We have yet to really see Williams hit the “boom” end of his boom/bust range of outcomes, but I expect he’ll hit it at some point before the year is out. At $3,600, he’s a scary play with no real floor, but I believe there’s ceiling in there. He’s someone I want some exposure to in tournaments. Xavier Gipson and perhaps Malachi Corley will fill in for a few snaps here and there and can be used as punt plays.
At tight end, Tyler Conklin has the TE1 role locked down. His volume expectations are more modest with Adams now on the team but we’ll still see him used close in to the goal line, where he’s second on the team in targets inside the 10. $5,600 is getting to the point where I no longer consider him a real value play, he’s pretty fairly priced there, but he’s a reasonable option. TE2 Jeremy Ruckert has a few games of 2-3 targets but also three games of 0 so he’s another punt option but one I’d prefer to the WRs.
Houston
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Cowboys ( 24.25) at
Falcons ( 27.25)
GAME OVERVIEW::
By Hilow >>
- The Cowboys have three major injuries, all on the defensive side of the ball. CBs DaRon Bland (foot), Trevon Diggs (calf), and DE Micah Parsons (ankle) are all unable to practice Wednesday or Thursday this week. That trio encompasses both starting corners and the team’s true difference maker off the edge.
- I get the feeling Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson will go relatively overlooked on this slate, which would be a mistake.
- Kirk Cousins has just three games all season over 29 pass attempts and just one game all season over 35 pass attempts. He also has just two games all season over a modest 241 pass yards, both of which came against the Buccaneers.
HOW Dallas WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Cowboys rank 10th in pass rate over expectation this season but have just one game greater than one standard deviation from neutral this season, a Week 3 shootout loss to the Ravens. The other component of that equation is that the Cowboys have been expected to pass a metric ton due to their defense underperforming last season’s tallies while allowing the second most points per game (28.3), leading to the Cowboys averaging the most pass attempts per game this season at 39.4. Furthermore, an offense that averaged a 57.89% red zone touchdown rate a season ago has fallen to 31st in red zone touchdown rate in 2024 (42.11%), better than only the Giants. For whatever reason, the Cowboys have been more efficient both on the scoreboard and in the red zone on the road this season after leading the league in scoring per game at home in 2023, with a 30.0% red zone touchdown rate at home and a 55.56% red zone touchdown rate on the road. I almost never read into home-road splits, so take that for what it’s worth, but I found it interesting enough to include here.
Cowboys lead back Rico Dowdle was not listed on the team’s injury report on Wednesday or Thursday this week, meaning he has recovered from the illness that kept him from suiting up in the team’s Week 8 loss to the 49ers. Considering the state of the backfield behind Dowdle (veterans Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook), I would expect Dowdle to return to a lead back role that saw him account for more than a modest 13 opportunities only once all season while never playing more than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps. There isn’t much more to say than that as this backfield has not been fantasy relevant all season.
The Falcons rank third in the league in zone utilization this year, with a solid 36.1% of that coming from Cover-3. That has led to near-even utilizations of single-high versus two-high alignments behind elevated rates of Cover-4 and Cover-6. If you remember from previous weeks, we talked about how elevated rates of those two coverages correspond heavily to defenses that look to force opponents to march the field, leading to additional holes in the short-to-intermediate areas while playing over the top to take away deep passing. All of that is important for how it pertains to the expected usage from the Dallas pass offense as CeeDee Lamb has been the go-to target against both Cover-3 and single-high for the previous two seasons. In 2024, Lamb has amassed ridiculous numbers in each split, with a 34% targets per route run rate (TPRR), 2.90 yards per route run (YPRR), a 31.8% first-read target rate, and 0.57 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) against Cover-3, 31% TPRR, 3.09 YPRR, 33.3% first-read target rate, and 0.61 FP/RR against single-high, and 25% TPRR, 1.39 YPRR, 27.1% first-read target rate, and 0.24 FP/RR against the combination of Cover-4 and Cover-6. The only split he doesn’t lead the team by a massive margin is against the combination of Cover-4 and Cover-6, which has largely been where tight end Jake Ferguson excels over the middle of the field. Jalen Tolbert has been rather mid in all of those meaningful splits, meaning we should expect a large portion of the passing volume and production to flow through Lamb and Ferguson here. That exploration checks out as the Falcons have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to tight ends and 12th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season (and the eighth most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks). Most of that production has come from the relatively soft defense between the 20s, meaning the Cowboys primary pass pieces are in a solid spot to rack up the yardage in this spot.
HOW Atlanta WILL TRY TO WIN::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Broncos ( 18.75) at
Ravens ( 27.75)
GAME OVERVIEW::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Broncos offense has appeared to heat up in recent weeks but has played relatively poor competition during that stretch.
- The Ravens defense has been struggling recently, but is getting healthier and is likely very close to turning things around.
- Baltimore added wide receiver Diontae Johnson via trade this week, although his status for this week remains unclear and it will likely take some time for him to make a big impact.
- The Ravens are coming off a disappointing loss to the Browns in which they let several opportunities to make big plays on both sides of the ball slip away.
- Denver has a 5-3 record despite being the 24th-ranked offense in the league.
HOW Denver WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Broncos offense started the year slow but has seemed to get things rolling in recent weeks and there is a lot of excitement around this team and rookie QB Bo Nix right now. A deeper look, however, shows us that Denver’s recent success has come against sub-par competition. Denver scored 34 points in a dismantling of the Raiders in Week 5 and 33 against an injury-riddled Saints team on a short week in Week 7, before scoring 28 points fairly easily against the Panthers in Denver last week. The team defense DVOA of those three teams is currently 26th, 32nd, and 31st. Meanwhile, the Broncos have faced two defenses this season who currently rank top-12 in the NFL in DVOA – the Steelers and the Chargers. The Broncos were held scoreless through three quarters in both of those games. To say that the Denver offense has been opponent-sensitive is an understatement. That brings us to the Baltimore defense, which has been terrific against the run (ranking 5th in run defense DVOA, 2nd in PFF run defense grades, and 1st in opponents yards per rush attempt) but has struggled – especially in recent weeks – against the pass. The Ravens have taken a step back without Mike Macdonald as their defensive coordinator and they have dealt with injuries in their secondary over recent weeks. This week they appear to be getting back starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins, while the team brought in respected defensive mind Dean Pees to help iron out some of their defensive issues a couple of weeks ago. Baltimore is a well-coached team with a strong defensive reputation, we can expect them to be a better unit than recent games have shown. This will be a great litmus test for both the Broncos offense and the Ravens defense, as the Broncos will need to show they can produce against a quality opponent and the Ravens will look to bounce back to the championship-level defense they expect from themselves.
The Broncos offense has been so heavily focused on ball control and avoiding turnovers that they may have a relatively conservative game plan in this one. Bo Nix threw 2 interceptions in each of his first two games but has turned the ball over only once in the last six games. The Ravens are blitzing at a lower rate and generating less pressure than they did in 2023, which should relieve some pressure and allow Denver to not force the issue early in the game. Denver wisely let Nix cut it loose a bit in recent weeks against weaker opponents, but this is likely a game that Sean Payton will recognize the need to play things close to the vest in the early going. If the Broncos are aggressive early in this game, they may push Baltimore a bit or we could see Nix make some costly mistakes that give the Ravens short fields and put Denver into a negative game script in the first half. Sean Payton has been around long enough to know that is not a situation he wants to put his rookie signal caller in as it could hurt the confidence that has been built up in recent weeks. For as much negativity as the Baltimore defense is receiving right now, most of their issues have come up in the second half of games. Only the Bengals and Chiefs have scored more than 10 first half points against Baltimore this season. Baltimore is likely to play strong defense early in this game and the Denver offense will lean on their running game and, more specifically, the short area passing game by using a large variety of formations and personnel groupings to generate positive plays and move the chains. It is easy to think/hope the Denver offense will be aggressive and attack a secondary that has given up big numbers in recent weeks, but that situation is unlikely to evolve until the second half if Denver falls behind and in that scenario, it is hard to expect the same kind of success. Their best path to victory is a tight, lower-scoring affair.
HOW Baltimore WILL TRY TO WIN::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Dolphins ( 21.5) at
Bills ( 27.5)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- After starting the season as one of the more attackable teams on the ground, the Bills have allowed just 3.73 yards per carry (fourth), 84.0 rush yards per game (fourth), a lowly 3.3% explosive-run rate (sixth), and two rushing scores while forcing four fumbles since Week 4.
- The Dolphins scored more than 21 points for the first time all season in Week 8 by hitting 27 points against the lowly Cardinals. This Bills defense presents a much more difficult matchup in Week 9.
- The Bills have leveraged a top-tier defense to have a pass rate over expectation (PROE) within one standard deviation of neutral in six of seven games, exceeding that only in a Week 7 trouncing of the Titans in which the team was never threatened.
- The Dolphins had only their second game of the season with a positive PROE value in Week 8, clearing one standard deviation above neutral for the first time this season.
- We should expect the Dolphins to remain aggressive throughout after dropping yet another game to the Cardinals in Week 8 as their season quietly slips away. The Bills, on the other hand, are likely to see their aggression dependent on the game environment.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
I think I’ve figured you out, Mr. Mike McDaniel. Honestly, evaluating McDaniel and his offensive tendencies has been a nightmare this season due to the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the offense with and without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. While Tua was out, I continued to see hints of the same offensive structure that made this team a matchup teams did not want to see on the schedule last season, with the problem being that they did not have a quarterback that could push the ball downfield. That left Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle completely hamstrung to the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, at one point not even running routes beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. That allowed opposing defenses to load the box and cheat safeties up without the threat of deep passing, which made this offense completely one-dimensional even with the same solid play structures on the ground. With Tua now healthy and back in the starting lineup, the threat of downfield passing has opened up the lanes for the run game and kept opposing defenses on their heels. The question then became, “how sharp is Mike McDaniel, really?” To which I responded, “I’m not so sure, but the structure of the offense was still there.”
That lands me at the following conclusion regarding McDaniel and his level of offensive genius: I would call McDaniel one of the best offensive architects of the previous 20 years, but he has a long way to go as far as in-game adjustments and calling games on the fly are concerned. This is not uncommon for young head coaches and offensive play callers. Look at Bobby Slowik in Houston. The things we say about him are eerily similar in that the structure of the offense is impeccable but his situational play-calling tendencies are atrocious, routinely placing his team in a position they must overcome instead of staying out in front of the down-and-distance equation. All of that to say, McDaniel has now had two weeks of preparation with an again healthy Tua, meaning we should expect his game plan coming in to be solid.
The structure of the run game remained elite without Tua, but the team was routinely facing stacked boxes and cheating safeties which effectively double-covered the holes the blocking scheme was looking to create at the line of scrimmage. I expect those shortcomings to be considerably more improved moving forward. That said, and contrary to public perception, this is not an easy matchup on the ground. After starting the season as one of the more attackable teams on the ground, the Bills have allowed just 3.73 yards per carry (fourth), 84.0 rush yards per game (fourth), a lowly 3.3% explosive-run rate (sixth), and two rushing scores while forcing four fumbles since Week 4. This Bills defense is also healthy for the first time in a while, with only linebacker Terrel Bernard likely questionable heading into the weekend (two limited sessions to begin Week 9 preparations after missing Week 8). Consider this is a strength-on-strength matchup on the ground for the Dolphins, one that brings a wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to expected efficiency. De’Von Achane continues to operate in a true “lead back” role, handling 50% to 60% of the offensive snaps but seeing a much higher opportunity-to-snap ratio than either Raheem Mostert or Jaylen Wright. Furthermore, Achane has target counts of 7 // 7 // 8 in the three fully healthy Tua games this season, with production through the air that would equate to the WR8 this season. And that’s on top of the 10 carries he has seen in each game with both Tua and Mostert active. In other words, you’re getting the WR8 at a salary of $6,700 that also is a good bet for 10-12 carries, including red-zone work.
Tua attempted 38 passes in his first game back from a long absence in Week 8 after attempting 27 passes in his only other fully healthy game this season. In those two games, Hill logged target totals of 12 and nine while Waddle saw only five and six looks. I would call this offense closer to a “Hill and Achane and then everyone else” than I would “Waddle is a clear WR2,” at least as expected volume is concerned. The heavy utilization of fullback Alec Ingold has left the offense at the bottom of the league in 11-personnel utilization, going so far as a season-low 26.2% 11-personnel rate in Week 8. And while Jonnu Smith has finally started to see more featured usage when on the field, his only game above 50% of the offensive snaps played was his 66% last week, with four games in the 6-to-8-target range and three games with a combined six targets. In other words, Hill and Achane take up such a large portion of the volume and emphasis through the air that there typically isn’t a ton left over for the secondary pieces, a chunk that now includes Waddle as well. While the Bills have been borderline elite against the run since Week 4, they have slipped to 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt and have faced the second-most targets to the running back position this season. Achane really stands out as a top on-paper play here.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Saints ( 25.25) at
Panthers ( 18.25)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- These two teams have a ridiculous amount of moving pieces this week.
- The Panthers just traded away their top wide receiver in Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing the previous five games while on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, rookie RB Jonathon Brooks got in a full practice as he ramps up for his professional debut, and QB Bryce Young was named the starter for Week 9 even though Andy Dalton returned to a full practice Wednesday.
- Saints QB Derek Carr returned to a limited session Wednesday and is reportedly on track to start in Week 9. CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and S Tyrann Mathieu (illness) were both held out of practice Wednesday, as were WRs Bub Means (ankle) and Cedrick Wilson (hip) and RB Kendre Miller (hamstring).
- Both teams should adopt more of a run-balanced approach on offense considering the state of each respective team, meaning there are very few paths for this game environment to develop into something you could not win without.
How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
After scoring the second-most points through two games in NFL history (91), the Saints have dropped six straight to the Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers while averaging just 15.67 points per game. Much of that second stint came while fighting through significant injuries including a season-ending knee injury to Rashid Shaheed, two games without Chris Olave, three games without Derek Carr, a banged-up Alvin Kamara fighting through a broken hand and rib injuries, four games without Taysom Hill, and numerous offensive-line injuries. Even so, we appeared to be a bit hasty in anointing Klint Kubiak the next coming of coaching Jesus (I was more than guilty of this myself). And with all that, it was probably the injuries to the offensive line that stung the most, as much of what Kubiak aimed to do revolved around a dynamic run game, behind which he brought in heavy play action and pre-snap motion rate designed to provide additional protection for one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league. Without the efficiency on the ground (and their quarterback, and their top two pass catchers, and Hill, etc.), the Saints were relegated to playing catchup with the sticks as opposed to never really falling behind the down-and-distance equation the first two weeks.
Even with the extensive injuries to the offensive line, the team’s run-blocking metrics are not atrocious. The Saints have blocked to a middling 1.91 yards before contact per attempt, which ranks 15th in the league just behind the perceived run-heavy Chargers. Miller’s team-leading 5.8 yards per carry and 4.00 yards after contact per attempt (on only nine carries) appears in legitimate danger of not being available in Week 9 after he picked up a hamstring injury in Week 8. That’s important to the workload of Kamara as two of his three lowest snap-rate games came in the previous two weeks with Miller active, when Kamara handled 14 and 21 opportunities (with a ridiculous 18 targets in that equation) on 57% and 55% snap rates. On that note, you have to go all the way back to Week 3 to find a game in which Kamara did not see seven or more targets, which is truly remarkable. Furthermore, the Saints have played just one opponent ranked in the bottom 10 in run defense all season, a game in which Kamara put up 115 yards and three touchdowns on the ground (Week 2 against the Cowboys). That is also important here considering the Panthers rank 25th in yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.31), 17th in yards allowed per carry (4.5), dead last in rush yards allowed per game (154.6), and dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields (29.3). There aren’t many backs who carry a greater-than-zero chance at a double bonus in the current state of the league, but Kamara is one of them.
The state of the New Orleans passing game has been thrust into shambles, with a core unit now led by Olave and rookie undrafted free agent Mason Tipton. Equanimeous St. Brown played 47% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 8, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of this unit. The Saints were already a 12-personnel-heavy team, something that has only increased through all the injuries out of necessity. With Means now looking unlikely to play due to an ankle injury, the passing game should be even more concentrated amongst Kamara and Olave, with Tipton, St. Brown, and a tight end trio of Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, and Hill (more of a utility man than a true tight end) mixing in for package work. The Panthers also allow the most yards per pass attempt this season at 7.8, so this team should find some level of efficiency through the air when they choose to attack in that manner. On that note, Carr has just one game all season of more than 28 pass attempts (36 against the Falcons), clearly indicating how this offense would prefer to attack when afforded the opportunity.
How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Raiders ( 18.5) at
Bengals ( 26.5)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (quad) did not practice Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 8 game following a late-week quad injury sustained in practice.
- Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers was limited Wednesday as he manages his ankle injury, but he logged an 82% snap rate in Week 8 in his first game back from two missed contests.
- Ja’Marr Chase sees his aDOT shrink from 10.3 yards with Higgins on the field this season to 6.8 yards with him off the field.
- Bengals TE Mike Gesicki leads the team in yards per route run (YPRR), fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) and air-yards share with Higgins off the field this season.
- The Bengals are likely to utilize much more subdued offensive aggression as compared to their second-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) value on the season.
- The Raiders have scored more than 21 points just twice all season and rank 26th in points per game at just 18.0, with a season high of just 26 points.
How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::
Four consecutive losses have left the Raiders with a 2-6 record and in last place in an AFC West division dominated by the Chiefs. Furthermore, the Raiders have the fourth-lowest points differential in the league at -66 points, with an offense that has scored more than 21 points just twice all season. In other words, this team is clearly in mid-season rebuild mode after shipping away Davante Adams to the Jets for relatively modest returns. The quarterback situation was significantly uncertain heading into the season following a camp battle between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Most notable from that competition was a backing from Adams of O’Connell, who eventually lost out on the starting job to the veteran journeyman. Minshew started the first five games of the season before leaving Week 5 with an injury, then O’Connell started Week 6 and Week 7 before being placed on injured reserve due to an injury sustained in Week 7, bringing us full circle back to Minshew. The problem with this offense is they have been unable to sustain drives at a meaningful rate nor find the end zone when they enter the red zone, which has left each quarterback with sub-optimal, to put it lightly, fantasy-points-per- dropback marks of 0.32 (Minshew) and 0.28 (O’Connell). To put those numbers into perspective, they sandwich Deshaun Watson (0.31) at 43rd and 45th in the league, respectively.
The Raiders also have one of the most inefficient run games in the league, with their top two backs (Alexander Mattison and Zamir White) responsible for 3.2 and 3.0 yards per carry behind 2.43 and 2.09 yards after contact per attempt, respectively. As a team, they average just 79.0 rush yards per game (31st in the league). The pure rushing matchup is middling, at best, against a Bengals defense allowing 1.88 yards before contact per attempt and 22.1 DK points per game to opposing backfields. There really isn’t much left to say about this backfield other than we are almost never going here in DFS.
The Raiders have played just three games this season with Meyers and Brock Bowers both healthy and without Adams. In those three games (Week 4, Week 5, and Week 8), Meyers has returned 27% TPRR, 1.84 YPRR, a 32.8% first-read target rate, and 0.43 FP/RR to the 25% TPRR, 2.20 YPRR, 23.4% first-read target rate, and 0.50 FP/RR values of Bowers. No other pass catcher comes close to any of those metrics, with a likeliest scenario placing Tre Tucker in a near every-down role and DJ Turner and tight end John Samuel Shenker operating in situational roles. The Bengals have forced a middling 7.7-yard defensive aDOT and allowed a middling 6.5 yards per pass attempt by largely forcing opponents to march the field against them, which should play into where the Raiders will be likeliest to look to move the football through the air (Meyers and Bowers). That said, the upside from any singular pass catcher in this offense is relatively muted and requires piercing 100 yards through the air and scoring a touchdown, something this team has provided in just one such instance of the entire season (Adams in Week 2).
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Chargers ( 22.25) at
Browns ( 20.25)
Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The notable injuries on the Browns side are G Joel Bitonio (DNP) with a foot, LB Jordan Hicks (DNP) with an elbow, and Denzel Ward (DNP) with a concussion.
- The notable injuries on the Chargers side are TE Will Dissly (DNP) with a shoulder, TE Hayden Hurst (LP) with a groin, WR Ladd McConkey (LP) with a hip, DE Joey Bosa (LP) with a hip, and WR Quentin Johnson (LP) with an ankle.
- Nick Chubb played 61% of the snaps last week and looks ready to resume his lead-back role for the rest of the season.
- J.K. Dobbins played 82% of the snaps last week and has settled into a modern-day workhorse role.
- Jameis Winston gives all the Browns pass catchers hope for a big game but this matchup is far from ideal.
- Justin Herbert looks fully healthy but he is playing in a run-oriented offense where he’s being asked to manage games.
- The Chargers defense has given up the fewest points in the league.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The 4-3 Chargers come into Week 9 after taking care of business at home against a wounded Saints squad. The Chargers have the misfortune of playing in the same division as the Chiefs, which means it’s tough for them to get into the playoffs automatically. That leaves a wildcard berth, and if the season ended today, Los Angeles would get the final wildcard spot over the 4-4 Colts. Without much depth in the AFC, there is a good chance the Chargers will be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the year. Being a wildcard contender makes winning games on the road like this important because it could mean the difference in making or missing the playoffs. The Chargers are far from a playoff lock, but Jim Harbaugh must be happy with how they’ve performed to the start season.
They haven’t played many elite offenses but the Chargers 91 points allowed are the lowest in the league. The offense has been what we expected coming into the season. They play at a plodding pace (32nd in seconds per play) and like to run (14th in PROE) but you can’t argue with the results Greg Roman has produced throughout his career using his style. The Chargers O-line has improved this year (16th ranked by PFF) with their improvement largely impart to Rookie LT Joe Alt who has been as advertised allowing pressure on only 3% of pass plays this season. They’ll need to be able to protect against a Browns defense that has been getting to QBs (7th in sack percentage). The improvement of their offensive line and defense, along with a run first style, make this a very different Chargers team than the one we saw over the past several seasons. The Browns have been middling against the pass (17th in DVOA) and the run (16th in DVOA), which means there shouldn’t be a reason for the Chargers to change from their preferred style. Expect the Chargers to come out with their typical slow pace of play, and run oriented offense, for as long as the game stays competitive.
How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
WFT ( 24) at
Giants ( 20)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Jayden Daniels made it through the team’s Week 8 Hail Mary win without aggravating a ribs injury that had him listed as questionable entering the weekend, meaning it’s likely he is good to go against the Giants.
- Giants RB Tyrone Tracy has taken over as the lead back but suffered a concussion on Monday Night Football. The short week makes it unlikely he clears protocol in time for Week 9 with his practice participation is likely to tell the whole story. That said, the Giants are unlikely to hold a full practice on Wednesday, so we likely won’t have a better idea of his status until Thursday. He will need to first log a limited session (meaning he is symptom-free), log a full practice Friday, and be cleared by an independent neurologist before Sunday.
- That means we’re likely to see Devin Singletary back in a featured role for the Giants after rushing to 4.0 yards per carry and 3.17 yards after contact per attempt this season.
- It is highly likely the Commanders are able to assert control on this game via methodical and sustained drives, elevated rush rates, and muted pass volume.
- The Washington defense has played much better since Week 4 after a disastrous start (more on this below).
How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::
After not attempting more than 30 passes in each of his first five starts, Daniels has pass-attempt counts of 35 and 38 in his last two fully healthy games, having left after just two pass attempts in the team’s Week 7 trouncing of the Panthers. Those two games came against the Ravens and Bears, two teams whose defenses held the Commanders to 10 points or fewer in the first half. Things were a bit more as we expected them in the Week 7 win over the Panthers (the game Daniels left early with injury), with the team attempting just 25 total passes to 37 team rushes. The true emphasis of this team remains a run-balanced approach, although we now have two instances of them tilting more pass-heavy in game environments they are unable to control the first half, as was the case in Week 6 and Week 8. That’s important to understand here because the Giants present the eighth-most pass-funnel matchup but have scored just one offensive touchdown in four home games this season, making it likelier we see the Commanders able to attack this spot via their preferred method, which includes increased rush rates, a ball-control mentality built through sustaining drives, and muted passing volume. In other words, we should expect the Commanders to enter “control the game environment” mode as opposed to attacking the Giants’ underperforming secondary, a unit that went so far as benching 2023 first-round cornerback Deonte Banks a week ago.
Daniels made it through the team’s Week 8 Hail Mary win without aggravating a ribs injury that had him listed as questionable entering the weekend, meaning it is likely he is good to go against the Giants. Furthering the above exploration on the likeliest plan of attack is a Giants defense allowing the third-most yards before contact per attempt (2.59), the most yards per carry (5.4), and the sixth-most rush yards per game (141.8) this season, even while boasting one of the better true run-stopping assets in Dexter Lawrence. Lead back Brian Robinson has been nothing short of impressive this season, rushing to 4.5 yards per carry behind a solid 3.55 yards after contact per attempt. The Commanders rank fourth in yards before contact per attempt while the Giants rank 30th in yards allowed before contact per attempt, setting up a significant mismatch in the trenches for the Washington run game. Austin Ekeler has returned to his pre-injury efficiency with the Commanders, rushing to a robust 6.2 yards per carry behind a modest 2.67 yards after contact per attempt. Finally, the team also has special-teams ace Jeremy McNichols on hand to soak up touches in game environments that get out of hand. Robinson has seen 16-20 opportunities in all but two healthy games this season with just one game above 20 opportunities, giving him a clearly defined likeliest scenario of 18-20 opportunities in this spot. He’ll need to pierce 100 yards on the ground and score multiple touchdowns to return GPP viability, considering he has just five total targets since Week 3.
For the first time this season, Noah Brown out-snapped Terry McLaurin in Week 8, something we had been calling for at OWS since he was acquired just a week prior to the start of the season. On that note, McLaurin has played more than 72% of the offensive snaps just once since Week 4 as this team continues to rotate five wide receivers and three tight ends through its alignment packages. But from a macro perspective, it is McLaurin and Brown at the top and Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, John Bates, and Ben Sinnott in rotational roles dependent on matchup and game flow. McLaurin and Noah Brown offer solid per-target upside in their current roles but are likely to require a fluky play or two (long touchdown or multiple scores) on what is sure to be limited pass volume in this spot to matter for fantasy purposes.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 1:00pm Eastern
Patriots ( 17.5) at
Titans ( 21)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- These two teams rank 28th (Titans) and 29th (Patriots) in points per game and 30th (Titans) and 32nd (Patriots) in yards per game this season.
- The Titans rank first in yards allowed per game (265.4).
- Patriots QB Drake Maye and WR Ja’Lynn Polk both managed limited sessions on Wednesday as they progress through the league’s concussion protocol. That’s an important first step to gaining clearance for Week 9, with their respective practice statuses on Thursday and Friday likely to tell the full story on whether or not they will be available against the Titans. I currently expect both to gain clearance and play.
- The Titans had quite the injury report on Wednesday. RB Tony Pollard (foot), WR Calvin Ridley (shoulder), WR Tyler Boyd (shoulder), CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad), and NT T’Vondre Sweat (hip) did not practice to start the week, while RB Tyjae Spears (hamstring) and QB Will Levis (throwing shoulder) managed limited sessions as each attempts to return from two-game absences.
- Both offensive lines rank bottom five in yards before contact per attempt, which has limited each offense’s ability to sustain drives and generate meaningful play action.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
First off, Maye gives this team the best chance to succeed offensively, having thrown five touchdowns in two starts to the two touchdowns in the almost six full games worth of play from Jacoby Brissett. Maye has demonstrated better pocket presence, escapability, and downfield ability, giving the offense a better chance to sustain drives behind one of, if not, the worst offensive line in football (108 total pressured allowed ranks 31st, better than only the 109 allowed by the Seahawks, and 1.07 yards before contact per attempt created ranks dead last). Maye managed a limited showing on Wednesday after being placed in the concussion protocol Sunday, meaning he is at least symptom-free at this point. He’ll still need to log a full practice and gain clearance by an independent neurologist, but he appears to be on track to suit up against the Titans. Maye was a combined 46-for-70 (65.7%) in his two full games this season, in two game environments in which the Patriots played their opponent tough until halftime (down 14-7 against the Texans and down 22-10 after leading 10-0 against the Jaguars). The shortcomings of the offensive line have really altered how this team has been able to approach games, with a clear preference on a run-balanced approach hamstrung by their rushing woes. That has made the Patriots almost entirely reactive in their offensive structure this season, with an expectation going into games of a run-balanced approach.
That expectation doesn’t get any better against a Titans defense allowing the fewest yards of offense per game this season, although they have been more effectively attacked on the ground. The Titans have allowed 2.15 yards before contact per attempt (11th most) and 119.7 rush yards per game (16th most), which presents a clear path of least resistance to the Patriots. Even so, their offensive line has been so bad that it might not matter here. It then becomes rather impressive that Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have averaged 4.1 and 4.2 yards per carry this season, respectively, considering they have done much of the heavy lifting after contact (3.19 and 3.63 yards after contact per attempt, respectively). If they are to remain competitive in this spot, it is likely at the hands of one, or both, of these backs.
DeMario Douglas led the team in receiving in Maye’s first start against the Texans before seeing limited action against the Jaguars, during which tight end Hunter Henry stepped into the featured role through the air. Even so, the Titans allow the fewest pass yards per game (151.6) and fifth-lowest completion rate (61.58%), although the absence of Sneed has really hurt the previous two games against the Bills and Lions. Sneed has yet to practice while dealing with a quad injury, making the individual matchup slightly better for New England pass catchers. That said, the two primary pass catchers in the offense, Douglas and Henry, work primarily out of the slot and over the middle of the field and likely wouldn’t see Sneed coverage anyway. I would expect Polk back this week after missing Week 8 with a concussion, which should affect the snaps of both Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne. It is unclear which of the three would see the most snaps after Bourne missed the first four games before being eased back into action.
How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 4:05pm Eastern
Bears ( 21.5) at
Cards ( 23)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Bears will try to recover from their Hail Mary failure in Washington last week with a trip to the desert against a Cardinals team that is heating up.
- Arizona has beaten the Chargers and Dolphins over the last two weeks by a combined three points to pull themselves into a 3-way tie for first place in the NFC West.
- Chicago’s defense is one of the bigger “run funnel” defenses in the league as their elite secondary and “bend but don’t break” mentality encourages teams to march the field slowly but efficiently.
- Caleb Williams should be able to have a bounce back game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to rush the passer.
How Chicago Will Try To Win ::
The Bears emerged from their Week 7 bye and had a rough go of it offensively for the first three quarters in Washington. They did find their way and fought back for a 15-12 lead before the infamous Hail Mary that cost them the game as time expired. While the outcome was disappointing, the reality is that Chicago fought through adversity and found a way to put up points when they needed to in a game where they had been struggling. This is a good sign. They now find themselves in fourth place in a loaded NFC North and travel to Arizona for a matchup with a rejuvenated Cardinals team this week.
The Bears offense is still a work in progress and has been extremely sensitive to their opponent this season. They have faced three teams that rank in the bottom-10 in the league in defensive DVOA – the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars. In those games, Chicago has averaged 32 points and 360 total yards. In the other four games, the Chicago offense has averaged 12.5 points and 264 total yards. The Cardinals defense ranks 26th in defensive DVOA and 24th in opponent scoring, while having pass defense metrics that are highly concerning. This is definitely a spot that points towards the “Dr. Jekyll” side of the Bears offense and a robust output.
So exactly how will the Bears look to attack this matchup? The Bears are in the bottom half of the league in pass rate relative to expectations as they have protected Williams in difficult spots and iced games with their running game when they are in control. They have yet to find a spot for high volume outside of Week 3 against the Colts. In that game, Williams attempted 52 passes but he has not reached 30 pass attempts in the four games since. D’Andre Swift has one of the bigger workloads in the NFL, despite the fact that he continues to cede some goal line work to Roschon Johnson. Swift is a talented back as a runner and receiver, although his receiving work has been limited against opponents that blitz often and get a lot of pressure on the QB, as he is then asked to stay in and block rather than running routes. The Cardinals rank 31st in blitz rate and 29th in QB pressure rate, so this should be a game where Swift is involved as a receiver, a week after not being targeted against Dan Quinn’s blitz-happy Commanders defense. Arizona also ranks 29th in PFF coverage grade and plays a very high rate of zone coverage. Their overall defensive philosophy is one that looks to eliminate big plays down the field and keep things in front of them while keeping a lot of defenders back in coverage, as evidenced by their low blitz rate. In general, this is a conservative defensive scheme that will try to “bend but not break.” Those types of defenses are most vulnerable in the short areas of the field and underneath routes, or in the middle of the field against receivers who can find openings and/or make plays after the catch. The Bears have the perfect weapons for attacking this scheme as Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet are solid interior options and DJ Moore and Swift are elite playmakers with the ball in their hands. Moore, in particular, is potentially set up for another big game after a couple of quiet ones. His advanced metrics against zone coverage are outstanding and Williams should have clean pockets to get him the ball this week.
How Arizona Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 4:05pm Eastern
Jaguars ( 19.0) at
Eagles ( 26.5)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Jacksonville lost a key piece of its offense last week when WR Christian Kirk broke his collarbone late in the second half, while their other two starting WRs are also dealing with injuries.
- Philadelphia will likely be without tight end Dallas Goedert for the third straight game due to a hamstring injury.
- The Eagles’ offense had some struggles to start the season but seems to have found its groove recently, averaging 370 total yards and 32.5 points over the last two weeks.
- Philadelphia has been extremely run-heavy since its Week 5 bye, ranking 31st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) during that stretch.
- At least one team has scored 30+ points in each of the last four Jaguars games.
How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville has stumbled along this season to a 2-6 record, although its two wins have come in the last four games and they narrowly lost to a very good Packers team just last week. The Jaguars have continued to struggle after their epic collapse to end the 2023 season and head coach Doug Pederson could be on the hot seat very soon, especially with the murderer’s row of opponents the Jaguars have the next four weeks in the Eagles, Vikings, Lions, and Texans. The Jacksonville offense has been around the middle of the league this season and has had some nice games, but the Jaguars have had a few turnovers at the wrong times and have not been good enough to overcome their defensive struggles. While four of the Jaguars’ six losses have been by five points or less, the Jaguars rank 32nd in defensive DVOA and have been getting shredded through the air.
The Jaguars’ offense will be missing a key piece with WR Christian Kirk out for the season due to a collarbone injury, and he will likely be replaced by Parker Washington, who did some nice things last year when given opportunities late in the season. Their perimeter wide receivers, rookie phenom Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, both picked up injuries in Week 8 as well, although both were able to log a limited practice on Wednesday and have a decent shot to play in this game. Tight end Evan Engram has been back for a couple of weeks now and should have a massive role in the passing game with Kirk out of the picture. As for the running game, Tank Bigsby has outperformed Travis Etienne this season and seems to be “the guy” for the Jaguars now. Etienne has missed some time but is expected to return this week. We can expect a 1A/1B situation in the backfield, with Bigsby as the lead back and Etienne getting a few carries and playing in some passing situations.
The Jaguars have leaned heavier into the run this year than in past years as they try to mask their struggling defense. They rank 23rd in the league in PROE this year, and the loss of Kirk will likely keep them trying to tilt that direction for as long as they can. The Eagles also rank third in PFF pass rush grade and sixth in coverage grade, so a hobbled and short-handed passing game may struggle in this spot against Philadelphia. Another data point for Jacksonville trying to establish its ground game would be the Eagles’ uncharacteristically poor run defense, which is allowing the ninth-most adjusted line yards per rush attempt in 2024. The Eagles play a very high rate of man coverage and their best WRs against man have been Kirk and Thomas, which is yet another data point suggesting their passing game may struggle in this one. The Jaguars are heavy road underdogs that are dealing with a depleted skill-position corps and a dysfunctional defense, their best path to victory will be through shortening the game with a heavy dose of their running game and short-area passing through Engram, Washington, and the RBs.
How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 4:25pm Eastern
Lions ( 25.25) at
Packers ( 22.75)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- This battle for control of the NFC North features two teams who rank in the top five in the NFL in offensive DVOA and yards per play.
- Detroit’s offense started the year a little bit slow but has averaged 43 points per game over their last four games. They have almost twice as many touchdowns as punts during that span.
- The big question around the Packers is the availability of franchise QB Jordan Love, who departed halfway through Week 8 with a groin injury.
- Another important issue for this game will be Detroit’s ability to create pressure without Aidan Hutchinson against a Packers offensive line dealing with several injuries.
- The Lions will be the first team the Packers have faced that currently ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in offensive DVOA.
How DETROIT Will Try To Win ::
The Lions’ offense has been absolutely rolling this season and continued that trend with a 52-14 victory over the Titans in Week 8. I can’t imagine the last time a team scored over 50 points in a game while their QB threw for less than 100 yards, but that is exactly what the Lions pulled off in that game as Jared Goff had three touchdown passes despite only 85 passing yards. The Lions’ defense and special teams played a big part in that, as they created turnovers and had multiple long kick/punt returns that set their offense up with very short fields. Detroit started the year off a little shaky with an overtime victory over the Rams and then an ugly loss to the Bucs, but you can easily make the case that the Lions are the best and most well-rounded team in the NFL right now. Their offense and defense both rank top five in the league, and their special teams are consistently showing up as well.
Detroit’s offense is a blend of dominance up front, explosive playmakers, and creative play calling. This is what makes them so difficult to slow down and has led to their elite status among the NFL’s offenses. The Lions’ offensive line is arguably the best in the league, as they lead the NFL in adjusted line yards on rush attempts and do a very good job of giving Goff a clean pocket. Their offensive philosophy is basically to run the ball down their opponents’ throats and force them to commit to stopping them, with their passing game concepts getting their playmakers open in space for yards after catch and/or attacking downfield. The Lions will be without the explosive Williams once again this week as he finishes his two-game suspension for PEDs, which may condense their playbook and limit downfield shots a bit. Also of note is the fact that this will be the first outdoor game the Lions have played this season and Goff’s indoor/outdoor splits throughout his career have been extreme. Current forecasts in Green Bay call for 50-degree weather, moderate rain, and 15-20 mph winds. While we try not to overreact to weather in many situations, there is a large enough sample size and other context clues to point us to this being a spot where Detroit REALLY leans on its running game. The Lions know their QB is less effective in these elements, their main downfield weapon is out, and their opponent is likely to be playing with a backup QB. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will be carrying the load for this offense and are likely to combine for upwards of 40 touches in this spot.
Goff has not attempted more than 25 passes in a game since Week 2 and the Lions will want to keep that streak alive in this game. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta will likely be the main targets in the passing game and all of their skill sets fit the expected short-area focus they will have. LaPorta, in particular, may be a key in this game, as he had a 40% target share from Goff last week with Williams out of the lineup. Packers star cornerback Jaire Alexander is dealing with a knee injury and may have to miss this game. Green Bay plays around league-average rates of zone and man coverage but would seem likelier to lean zone-heavy if Alexander is indeed held out. ARSB and LaPorta excel against zone coverage and would likely be peppered with targets at a high rate, although the overall passing volume may not be there. Detroit’s overall offensive approach is an aggressive one that pursues points early and late, trying to build leads and never sitting on them. In this key NFC North matchup, we can expect much of the same.
How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 4:25pm Eastern
Rams ( 24.75) at
Hawks ( 23.75)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- This is an important battle in the NFC West prior to the Seahawks heading into their Week 10 bye.
- The Rams offense is finally fully healthy and is coming off their best game of the season, an upset victory over the Vikings.
- Seattle has lost three straight games at home while surrendering 32 points per game in those contests.
- DK Metcalf missed Week 8 with a knee injury and did not practice on Wednesday, putting his status for this game in doubt. The Seattle offense struggled immensely without his presence.
- This is a game where we can expect offensive success on both sides of the ball, but a likely lack of explosive plays means red zone efficiency and the turnover battle will likely determine the outcome.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams had a rough start to the season and there was a time when it felt like almost their entire roster was injured. However, they steadied the ship and did enough to stay alive until reinforcements arrived. Los Angeles has now won back-to-back games since their Week 6 bye and their offensive “Big 3” of Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua is now intact and positioned to help the Rams contend in the crowded NFC West, where all four teams are within a half a game. Last week, with the return of Kupp and Nacua, the Rams offense was humming. That game was the highest point total and yardage total that they have had in 2024, which is made even more impressive when you consider that Minnesota has the NFL’s #1 ranked defense in DVOA.
As for how the Rams will attack the Seahawks defense this week, player usage will be pretty straightforward with this team at full health. In last week’s game, the “Big 3” accounted for roughly 70% of the team’s targets, receptions, and yards from scrimmage while handling just under 80% of the team’s “opportunities” (carries plus targets). Third wide receiver Demarcus Robinson scored two of the team’s touchdowns, which slightly hides how concentrated this offense really was. The Rams play calling also tilted more pass heavy as they had their highest neutral pass rate since Week 1 when both Kupp and Nacua played as well. This does not mean they abandon the run by any means, but they will be a far more aggressive offense than what we saw in weeks 2 through 7. However they choose to attack in any game script, we can expect the overwhelming majority of their plays to go through their stars with a few scraps left for the others.
Seattle’s defense has been getting smashed on the ground and the Rams offense is built in a way that focuses on the running game and then expands into their other concepts based on that success. This matchup should allow Los Angeles to play exactly how they would like to, and the Seattle scheme and personnel do not in any way stand out as likely to stop the Rams from getting the ball to the players they want to. Seattle has a middling pass rush, blitzes at a bottom-10 rate in the NFL, and ranks in the middle of the league in both man and zone coverage rates, so there are no extreme factors in how they play that should push the Rams in a certain direction. Matthew Stafford has struggled under pressure this year, but that is largely due to the fact that he was playing without Kupp and Nacua. In 2023, he ranked 7th in PFF passing grade when under pressure, and even if the Seahawks are able to generate some pressure, he should be able to make them pay. Expect the Rams to have an aggressive game plan and feature their stars early on as they attempt to put their below-average defense in position to play with a lead.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 3rd 8:20pm Eastern
Colts ( 20.75) at
Vikings ( 25.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Colts visiting the Vikings for a 46.5 total game with Minnesota favored by 5.5. The big news, of course, is the benching of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe “old” Flacco. Richardson has been atrocious and so it’s hard to argue Flacco doesn’t give the Colts a better chance to win right now – he does – but it seems a shame to give up on the promise that Richardson showed last year and at times this year so quickly. Alas. Being a QB is hard.
Minnesota
The Vikings have gone from 5-0 to 5-2 after losing to Detroit (no shame) and to the Rams (plenty of shame). They would obviously like to get back on track here and the matchup is solid as the Colts have struggled against the run and the pass. In the backfield, the Vikings have given Aaron Jones the true RB1 role that he never really had with the Packers, with snap counts of 72%, 82%, and 92% in recent weeks. Jones has rewarded them by running for 5.5 yards per carry and catching 90% of the passes thrown his way – not shabby. With Green Bay, we would often see Jones capped out around 14-16 touches but the Vikings have given him 20+ in three of seven games (keep in mind he got hurt midway through one game and the Vikings have also blown out multiple opponents). With solid receiving work also in the cards, Jones is an extremely solid play at $9,600. About the only knock on him is the Vikings tendency to score from far away, leading to Jones having just 15 opportunities inside the 10 yard line, but when the entire rest of the team only has 14 such opportunities, his market share of them is solid and touchdown regression should trend his way as the season continues. He’s rock solid. RB2 Ty Chandler has been seeing his role diminish as the season has gone on (and hasn’t helped his cause by not running very well when given the opportunity). It’s odd to say for an RB2 but he’s really just a punt play here as is fullback CJ Ham.
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The passing game matchup looks fantastic as the Colts have bled production through the air all season. The Vikings passing game is awesome but they’ve been having to get by on efficiency as they’re averaging only 27 pass attempts per game (with just one game over 30) and an anemic 57 overall offensive plays per game, the lowest in the NFL. In addition, star tight end T.J. Hockenson is returning from IR this week, further muddying the target tree. What’s clear is that Justin Jefferson is an absolutely elite talent who can smash in any matchup. He hasn’t really found a ceiling game yet, in part because the Vikings often haven’t been passing in the second half of games, but despite just under 9 targets per game, he’s still passed 20 DK points in five of seven games. This offense doesn’t generate volume but Jefferson has a 32% market share of what volume there is, which gives him a strong floor even though the Vikings aren’t throwing a ton. Past him, though, it gets dubious. WR2 Jordan Addison has just 23 targets in five games (and only one game of more than 4 targets) – some ceiling here, sure, but the floor is terrifyingly low. WR3 Jordan Nailor is averaging under 3 targets per game. Hock will get some volume but we don’t know if he’ll play a full complement of snaps in his first game back. Basically, this entire receiving corps is “Jefferson and then a bunch of dart throws.” Good luck here. Personally I’d prefer taking the chance that Hock plays a lot. It’s risky and I wouldn’t be surprised if he played under 50% of the snaps, but I’m hopeful that the Vikings aren’t activating him until they’re fully confident that he’s ready to rock, and I think his upside at his price beats Addison and Nailor hands-down. You can put backup WRs Brandon Powell and Trent Sherfield as well as backup TEs Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver in your MME pools but they are extremely thin plays as they’ll all have target projections of 0-1.
Indianapolis
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Kickoff Monday, Nov 4th 8:15pm Eastern
Bucs ( 18.5) at
Chiefs ( 27.5)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 9 wraps up with the Bucs visiting the Chiefs for a 45.5 total game in which Kansas City is favored by 9. This would have been a much more exciting game if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin hadn’t gotten hurt, but here we are (I was told that RBs get hurt more than WRs so I should draft WRs in Best Ball . . . what the hell is happening this season?).
Kansas City
The Chiefs have installed Kareem Hunt in a really robust role, playing around 60% of the snaps each week and handling 28, 24, and 22 touches since he got fully ramped up with the offense. He hasn’t been good – he’s rocking just 3.7 yards per carry – but he’s been steady, he hasn’t fumbled, and the Chiefs seem to trust him. Carson Steele has been relegated to a change-of-pace role with just a couple of carries per week and then Samaje Perine is the 3rd-down back, though that’s only resulted in a total of 2 carries and 5 targets in the three full-Hunt games. Hunt’s role is awesome and the Bucs are not the elite run defense we’ve seen in years past. The Chiefs are huge home favorites and we generally invest in running backs more for the role than the talent, so we have to view him as a strong play here, especially with how run-heavy the Chiefs have been this season (possibly to somewhat hide the fact that Patrick Mahomes has looked awfully mortal this year and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns). Both Perine and Steele look like punt plays based on their current usage, though if the Chiefs blow the Bucs out, I could potentially see Steele picking up a few more 4th-quarter carries, and at his price, something like 40 yards and a touchdown would give him a good shot at showing up in optimal lineups.
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In the passing game, the big question is how much will DeAndre Hopkins play. He played 32% of the snaps last week and caught 2 of 3 targets. I’m not sure he will get to a completely full-time role this week, but probably not that far off. I’d guess like 60-70% of the snaps, which at $7k puts him firmly in play for me in one of the league’s best passing game matchups. As I noted previously, Mahomes has not looked very good at all this season, but it’s hard for me to buy that he just sucks all of a sudden. He’s too young and was too good, there’s no injury explanation, my best guess is it’s some amount of bad luck on interceptions combined with a shaky receiving corps since Rashee Rice got hurt and Hollywood Brown never really made it on the field. Hopkins should help here, hopefully. Xavier Worthy has been the nominal WR1 since Rice got hurt, with 20 targets in his last three games, but only 10 catches for 81 yards. Worthy is fast – really fast – but he’s not yet a good route runner or catcher of footballs thrown in his direction. You’re hoping he catches a long one, which with his speed is certainly a possibility. I’m willing to take shots on him because I think he’s going to come in at pretty low ownership given how bad he’s been, but just be aware it’s a high-risk play even in what should be a solid role. Justin Watson has actually led the Chiefs wide receivers in snaps the last three weeks but it’s come with a grand total of 4 targets, leaving him as nothing more than a punt play. Finally, Mecole Hardman isn’t on the field as much but he’s getting used when he is – he’s also something of a punt play but they’re using him near the red zone as a gadgety kind of guy, similarly to how they used to use Jerick McKinnon – consider him a punt play who almost certainly needs a touchdown, but who has greater odds of getting one than most punt options.
At tight end, we have Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, both of whom have played at least 61% of the snaps in three straight weeks as the Chiefs run more 12-personnel sets to adjust to their weaker WR corps. It seemed clear early in the season that they were taking it easy on Kelce, but they’ve really gotten him involved of late with target counts of 9, 10, 5, and 12 in their last four games. If they’re going to take the brakes off, he’s too cheap at $8,800 and is pretty clearly the strongest pass catcher option on Kansas City. Expect him to be really chalky at this price (he’s only $400 more than Cade freaking Otton). There’s some volatility here given the early season lack of usage. I am slightly nervous that could pop up again at some point if the Chiefs decide to scale him back and try to protect him for the playoffs, a scenario which seems more likely if they’re winning handily. Noah Gray is playing a lot and has seen 2-4 targets in four straight games, making him a reasonable value option in a positive matchup at $2,800. I’d consider Gray a slightly stronger play than Watson and Hardman at similar prices.
Tampa Bay
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