XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Colts visiting the Vikings for a 46.5 total game with Minnesota favored by 5.5. The big news, of course, is the benching of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe “old” Flacco. Richardson has been atrocious and so it’s hard to argue Flacco doesn’t give the Colts a better chance to win right now – he does – but it seems a shame to give up on the promise that Richardson showed last year and at times this year so quickly. Alas. Being a QB is hard.
Minnesota
The Vikings have gone from 5-0 to 5-2 after losing to Detroit (no shame) and to the Rams (plenty of shame). They would obviously like to get back on track here and the matchup is solid as the Colts have struggled against the run and the pass. In the backfield, the Vikings have given Aaron Jones the true RB1 role that he never really had with the Packers, with snap counts of 72%, 82%, and 92% in recent weeks. Jones has rewarded them by running for 5.5 yards per carry and catching 90% of the passes thrown his way – not shabby. With Green Bay, we would often see Jones capped out around 14-16 touches but the Vikings have given him 20+ in three of seven games (keep in mind he got hurt midway through one game and the Vikings have also blown out multiple opponents). With solid receiving work also in the cards, Jones is an extremely solid play at $9,600. About the only knock on him is the Vikings tendency to score from far away, leading to Jones having just 15 opportunities inside the 10 yard line, but when the entire rest of the team only has 14 such opportunities, his market share of them is solid and touchdown regression should trend his way as the season continues. He’s rock solid. RB2 Ty Chandler has been seeing his role diminish as the season has gone on (and hasn’t helped his cause by not running very well when given the opportunity). It’s odd to say for an RB2 but he’s really just a punt play here as is fullback CJ Ham.
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The passing game matchup looks fantastic as the Colts have bled production through the air all season. The Vikings passing game is awesome but they’ve been having to get by on efficiency as they’re averaging only 27 pass attempts per game (with just one game over 30) and an anemic 57 overall offensive plays per game, the lowest in the NFL. In addition, star tight end T.J. Hockenson is returning from IR this week, further muddying the target tree. What’s clear is that Justin Jefferson is an absolutely elite talent who can smash in any matchup. He hasn’t really found a ceiling game yet, in part because the Vikings often haven’t been passing in the second half of games, but despite just under 9 targets per game, he’s still passed 20 DK points in five of seven games. This offense doesn’t generate volume but Jefferson has a 32% market share of what volume there is, which gives him a strong floor even though the Vikings aren’t throwing a ton. Past him, though, it gets dubious. WR2 Jordan Addison has just 23 targets in five games (and only one game of more than 4 targets) – some ceiling here, sure, but the floor is terrifyingly low. WR3 Jordan Nailor is averaging under 3 targets per game. Hock will get some volume but we don’t know if he’ll play a full complement of snaps in his first game back. Basically, this entire receiving corps is “Jefferson and then a bunch of dart throws.” Good luck here. Personally I’d prefer taking the chance that Hock plays a lot. It’s risky and I wouldn’t be surprised if he played under 50% of the snaps, but I’m hopeful that the Vikings aren’t activating him until they’re fully confident that he’s ready to rock, and I think his upside at his price beats Addison and Nailor hands-down. You can put backup WRs Brandon Powell and Trent Sherfield as well as backup TEs Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver in your MME pools but they are extremely thin plays as they’ll all have target projections of 0-1.
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