Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Jayden Daniels made it through the team’s Week 8 Hail Mary win without aggravating a ribs injury that had him listed as questionable entering the weekend, meaning it’s likely he is good to go against the Giants.
- Giants RB Tyrone Tracy has taken over as the lead back but suffered a concussion on Monday Night Football. The short week makes it unlikely he clears protocol in time for Week 9 with his practice participation is likely to tell the whole story. That said, the Giants are unlikely to hold a full practice on Wednesday, so we likely won’t have a better idea of his status until Thursday. He will need to first log a limited session (meaning he is symptom-free), log a full practice Friday, and be cleared by an independent neurologist before Sunday.
- That means we’re likely to see Devin Singletary back in a featured role for the Giants after rushing to 4.0 yards per carry and 3.17 yards after contact per attempt this season.
- It is highly likely the Commanders are able to assert control on this game via methodical and sustained drives, elevated rush rates, and muted pass volume.
- The Washington defense has played much better since Week 4 after a disastrous start (more on this below).
How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::
After not attempting more than 30 passes in each of his first five starts, Daniels has pass-attempt counts of 35 and 38 in his last two fully healthy games, having left after just two pass attempts in the team’s Week 7 trouncing of the Panthers. Those two games came against the Ravens and Bears, two teams whose defenses held the Commanders to 10 points or fewer in the first half. Things were a bit more as we expected them in the Week 7 win over the Panthers (the game Daniels left early with injury), with the team attempting just 25 total passes to 37 team rushes. The true emphasis of this team remains a run-balanced approach, although we now have two instances of them tilting more pass-heavy in game environments they are unable to control the first half, as was the case in Week 6 and Week 8. That’s important to understand here because the Giants present the eighth-most pass-funnel matchup but have scored just one offensive touchdown in four home games this season, making it likelier we see the Commanders able to attack this spot via their preferred method, which includes increased rush rates, a ball-control mentality built through sustaining drives, and muted passing volume. In other words, we should expect the Commanders to enter “control the game environment” mode as opposed to attacking the Giants’ underperforming secondary, a unit that went so far as benching 2023 first-round cornerback Deonte Banks a week ago.
Daniels made it through the team’s Week 8 Hail Mary win without aggravating a ribs injury that had him listed as questionable entering the weekend, meaning it is likely he is good to go against the Giants. Furthering the above exploration on the likeliest plan of attack is a Giants defense allowing the third-most yards before contact per attempt (2.59), the most yards per carry (5.4), and the sixth-most rush yards per game (141.8) this season, even while boasting one of the better true run-stopping assets in Dexter Lawrence. Lead back Brian Robinson has been nothing short of impressive this season, rushing to 4.5 yards per carry behind a solid 3.55 yards after contact per attempt. The Commanders rank fourth in yards before contact per attempt while the Giants rank 30th in yards allowed before contact per attempt, setting up a significant mismatch in the trenches for the Washington run game. Austin Ekeler has returned to his pre-injury efficiency with the Commanders, rushing to a robust 6.2 yards per carry behind a modest 2.67 yards after contact per attempt. Finally, the team also has special-teams ace Jeremy McNichols on hand to soak up touches in game environments that get out of hand. Robinson has seen 16-20 opportunities in all but two healthy games this season with just one game above 20 opportunities, giving him a clearly defined likeliest scenario of 18-20 opportunities in this spot. He’ll need to pierce 100 yards on the ground and score multiple touchdowns to return GPP viability, considering he has just five total targets since Week 3.
For the first time this season, Noah Brown out-snapped Terry McLaurin in Week 8, something we had been calling for at OWS since he was acquired just a week prior to the start of the season. On that note, McLaurin has played more than 72% of the offensive snaps just once since Week 4 as this team continues to rotate five wide receivers and three tight ends through its alignment packages. But from a macro perspective, it is McLaurin and Brown at the top and Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, John Bates, and Ben Sinnott in rotational roles dependent on matchup and game flow. McLaurin and Noah Brown offer solid per-target upside in their current roles but are likely to require a fluky play or two (long touchdown or multiple scores) on what is sure to be limited pass volume in this spot to matter for fantasy purposes.
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