Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- This battle for control of the NFC North features two teams who rank in the top five in the NFL in offensive DVOA and yards per play.
- Detroit’s offense started the year a little bit slow but has averaged 43 points per game over their last four games. They have almost twice as many touchdowns as punts during that span.
- The big question around the Packers is the availability of franchise QB Jordan Love, who departed halfway through Week 8 with a groin injury.
- Another important issue for this game will be Detroit’s ability to create pressure without Aidan Hutchinson against a Packers offensive line dealing with several injuries.
- The Lions will be the first team the Packers have faced that currently ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in offensive DVOA.
How DETROIT Will Try To Win ::
The Lions’ offense has been absolutely rolling this season and continued that trend with a 52-14 victory over the Titans in Week 8. I can’t imagine the last time a team scored over 50 points in a game while their QB threw for less than 100 yards, but that is exactly what the Lions pulled off in that game as Jared Goff had three touchdown passes despite only 85 passing yards. The Lions’ defense and special teams played a big part in that, as they created turnovers and had multiple long kick/punt returns that set their offense up with very short fields. Detroit started the year off a little shaky with an overtime victory over the Rams and then an ugly loss to the Bucs, but you can easily make the case that the Lions are the best and most well-rounded team in the NFL right now. Their offense and defense both rank top five in the league, and their special teams are consistently showing up as well.
Detroit’s offense is a blend of dominance up front, explosive playmakers, and creative play calling. This is what makes them so difficult to slow down and has led to their elite status among the NFL’s offenses. The Lions’ offensive line is arguably the best in the league, as they lead the NFL in adjusted line yards on rush attempts and do a very good job of giving Goff a clean pocket. Their offensive philosophy is basically to run the ball down their opponents’ throats and force them to commit to stopping them, with their passing game concepts getting their playmakers open in space for yards after catch and/or attacking downfield. The Lions will be without the explosive Williams once again this week as he finishes his two-game suspension for PEDs, which may condense their playbook and limit downfield shots a bit. Also of note is the fact that this will be the first outdoor game the Lions have played this season and Goff’s indoor/outdoor splits throughout his career have been extreme. Current forecasts in Green Bay call for 50-degree weather, moderate rain, and 15-20 mph winds. While we try not to overreact to weather in many situations, there is a large enough sample size and other context clues to point us to this being a spot where Detroit REALLY leans on its running game. The Lions know their QB is less effective in these elements, their main downfield weapon is out, and their opponent is likely to be playing with a backup QB. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will be carrying the load for this offense and are likely to combine for upwards of 40 touches in this spot.
Goff has not attempted more than 25 passes in a game since Week 2 and the Lions will want to keep that streak alive in this game. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta will likely be the main targets in the passing game and all of their skill sets fit the expected short-area focus they will have. LaPorta, in particular, may be a key in this game, as he had a 40% target share from Goff last week with Williams out of the lineup. Packers star cornerback Jaire Alexander is dealing with a knee injury and may have to miss this game. Green Bay plays around league-average rates of zone and man coverage but would seem likelier to lean zone-heavy if Alexander is indeed held out. ARSB and LaPorta excel against zone coverage and would likely be peppered with targets at a high rate, although the overall passing volume may not be there. Detroit’s overall offensive approach is an aggressive one that pursues points early and late, trying to build leads and never sitting on them. In this key NFC North matchup, we can expect much of the same.
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