Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- I eventually expect the Dolphins to introduce heavier rates of 11-personnel after finishing near the bottom of the league last season. That said, we might be forced to wait for that to transpire due to OBJ starting the season on the PUP list and Malik Washington being a raw rookie.
- Although we shouldn’t expect heavier 11-personnel sets initially, we should expect Jonnu Smith to be moved around the formation as a unique new element to this offense.
- I don’t know if it will come in Week 1, but Smith will eventually wreck a DFS slate.
- We also don’t know if De’Von Achane will take on a higher opportunity share in his second professional season or if he will continue as the 1B to Raheem Mostert’s 1A.
- I always get amped for Dolphins-Jaguars games because the Dolphins have the fastest offense in the league, and the Jaguars have the fastest defense.
- You’ll have game-breaking speed and abilities present whenever the Dolphins take the field.
- I expect the Jaguars to ride Travis Etienne in the clear weakest point of attack against the Dolphins defense, with short area passing a necessity through the air due to the expectation of increased pressure on Trevor Lawrence.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The Jaguars finished each of the previous two seasons right around the same spot in total pass rate (59.34% and 59.40%). Head coach and offensive play caller Doug Pederson has largely been the same play caller in Jacksonville, sticking to a run-balanced approach. He has not shied away from pre-snap motion and play-action passing, nor has he failed to provide robust route trees to his receivers. All of that is designed to stress various areas of an opposing defense, putting his players in the best position to succeed before and after the reception. But there’s a twist. Press Taylor called plays for the Jaguars during the preseason, and Pederson has yet to say whether it will be him or Taylor calling the offense once games matter. Taylor called the offense for the entirety of the 2023 season after sharing duties with Pederson in 2022, but the most recent developments add significant uncertainties to that arrangement. We also know that Taylor worked with Pederson in Philadelphia from 2016 to 2020 before Pederson was fired and that Pederson immediately hired Taylor when announced as the head coach of the Jaguars. That is to say, these two operate extremely similarly as far as offensive tendencies are concerned.
I’m not yet ready to buy the speculation that Tank Bigsby has forced a heavier role in this offense based on his offseason. In the preseason, I saw more of the same indecision that handed Travis Etienne one of the most robust workloads in the league last season (15.7 carries and 4.3 targets per game). My biggest problem is an offensive line that looked atrocious in the preseason, after both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis ranked them as the 23rd unit entering the new season. The Dolphins surrendered just 3.8 yards per carry in 2023 and will likely shift to a 3-4 base front, considering the recent defensive coordinator change. That places a lot of emphasis on nose tackle Benito Jones, who has been ranked poorly by PFF in run-stopping metrics during his two-year career. It will likely be easier to run on the Dolphins than pass on them to start the season.
I would expect the pass-catching arrangements to be fairly straightforward as far as alignments and route responsibilities are concerned. Gabe Davis should operate in the clear Z-type receiver role, rookie Brian Thomas should immediately command the X-type receiver position, Christian Kirk should remain confined to the slot or Y-type role, and Evan Engram should maintain a heavy emphasis in the offense. It is also worth noting that Engram just finished the 2023 season with the 14th most targets by a tight end in NFL history. Continuing the discussion above on this offensive line, Jaguars QBs faced pressure at the second-highest rate during the preseason this year. That could spell trouble for Davis’ ability to be a consistent contributor to the offense, considering his downfield role, likely resulting in increased weekly targets for the trio of Thomas, Engram, and Kirk. As for defensive coverage tendencies from newcomer defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver for the Dolphins, I would expect something similar to what we’ve seen from the Ravens over the previous three seasons. This team has a similar assortment of elite players throughout the secondary and worked hard this offseason to address the linebackers and defensive line. That means disruption and getting after the quarterback, with a mix of Cover-1 and zone principles behind. Expect a ball-out-quick game plan against that setup.
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