XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 1 closes out with the Jets visiting the 49ers. Really? We had three awesome island game options and then . . . the Jets facing a team that made it to the Super Bowl last year. Yeah, I get that Aaron Rodgers is back, but yeesh. Alright. Moving on. This game has a mediocre 43.5 point total with SF favored by 4.5, so it’s not projected to be a super exciting game, but for Showdown, we don’t care about that, we just care about if we can figure out how to attack it in a +EV way.
San Francisco
The 49ers run game starts, of course, with Christian McCaffrey. CMC is the best running back in the league and has an incredibly strong role – he led all RBs in points-per-game scoring last year and it wasn’t even close (26.5 points per game is legitimately insane, with Kyren 2nd at 21.8 points per game, almost a five point gap!). He’s an incredibly expensive $11.6k, but this is actually shockingly cheaper (!) than his average Showdown salary last year. He’s going to be extremely popular. He’s a fantastic on-paper play even in a really tough matchup. He’s a pretty key decision point on the slate, and one that I can’t really make for you – just decide if you’re comfortable with the “great on paper play at high ownership” position or “fade the best play on the slate and just accept it if he burns you” position. The only real downside to CMC is that in noncompetitive games he has to “get his” on the way up because the 49ers have historically managed his workload in games in which they’re leading handily. Now, if the game is a blowout there’s still a strong chance CMC was part of making it a blowout, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least point out that potential path to failure. Behind CMC is Jordan Mason, whose role is likely to be minimal as long as the game is competitive, but who could see some extra 4th-quarter touches if the Jets can’t keep up. Because of this dynamic, I wouldn’t play CMC and Mason together except on 5-1 49ers onslaught builds, and I probably wouldn’t play Mason unless he was paired with at least two other 49ers (and maybe even three – the idea here is you want to play Mason in “49ers win easily” rosters, because those are the ones in which he’s likeliest to see a healthy workload).
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
The 49ers receiving corps has Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle all ready to go, with WR3 Juaun Jennings listed as questionable. Jennings’ status doesn’t really make a big difference to the main guys . . . but the main guys, ugh. I hate the 49ers for Showdowns because it’s so difficult to predict where the passing game production is going to come from. One thing worth noting is the matchup for San Francisco is much easier on the ground, but this is an elite offense that can score from anywhere on the field, so I don’t want to shy away from the pass catching options. Aiyuk is the favorite to lead the pass catchers in targets, while Deebo generally supplements his receiving work with a bit of run game activity (averaged roughly three carries per game last year and had five touchdowns), while Kittle’s big games tend to come out of nowhere (at least when everyone’s healthy) as he is often used as a blocker. Given how good the Jets D is, I expect a lot of Kittle blocking in this one, which lowers my level of interest in rostering him. Aiyuk and Deebo I’ll probably just split with a slight preference towards Deebo as he can also score on the ground, where as noted previously the Jets are more vulnerable. The 49ers depth pieces include such NFL luminaries as Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, and Jake Tonges – you can use them as punts, I suppose, in MME, and if Jennings is out I think Bell is his most likely direct backup, which would put him firmly in play as a value option at $200 (though with a questionable ceiling).
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.