XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 1 brings us a Friday night game (extra Showdown!) in Brazil, of all places. I guess we’re trying to convince them that football is actually soccer by showing them real football? I don’t know. Anyhow, we have a healthy 48.5 total with Philly favored by about 2 points (which may be kind of a bad line considering the Eagles were 11-6 last year and two years removed from making the Super Bowl, while the Packers were just an above-average 9-8). There’s also some extremely odd pricing in this one compared to Thursday’s game . . . we’ll get to that. I’m mainly just excited about getting an extra Showdown in the first week!
Philadelphia
On the Eagles side, their new-look backfield has Saquon Barkley in the lead back role, backed up by some combination of Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Will Shipley. The Eagles have a fairly long history of not using running backs in bell cow roles – it’s rare for an Eagles back to see 20+ carries (only twice last year). But, keep in mind, that’s trending down across the entire NFL these days. De’Andre Swift saw 229 carries and 49 targets last year in 15 full games, which comes out to a healthy by current NFL standards, 18.5 opportunities per game. I think that’s what we should view as a floor for Saquon with upside for more, which at $9,400, puts Saquon in play though not as some sort of screaming value. He’s solid, especially if you believe the 2 point spread is a bad line. Past Saquon, it’s unclear how we’ll see Shipley and Gainwell being used. The Eagles have had some kind of love affair with Gainwell for years now, keeping him consistently involved as a backup. I’d expect that role to continue and would estimate something like 6-10 touches for him, while Shipley’s role is more up in the air. Shipley should be more of a direct backup to Saquon should he go down, but as long as Saquon’s active, I think Shipley is likely to only get a couple of breather carries here and there. At $3,400, Gainwell’s a reasonable value play as his role is such that if he gets a touchdown, he’s probably in the optimal lineup, as he’ll also get a catch or two and a few carries.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Eagles bring back their primary guys: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, while replacing their WR3 role with Jahan Dotson. It’s always tough figuring out which Philly pass catcher is likeliest to go off and there are positives for both of the main WRs. For Brown, the Packers run some of the highest rates of Cover-1 and Cover-3, and Brown has absolute elite targets per route run and yards per route run numbers against those coverage schemes. Smith was running a lot of slot in training camp, or rather the current trend of the “uber slot” role (think Cooper Kupp a couple of years ago, CeeDee Lamb last year, etc.). If that role holds, we should see a really big season for Smith. Of the two, I lean towards Brown based on the matchup, but here’s where things get weird. As I mentioned earlier, pricing is strange in this one. Brown’s the strange one. $11k is a bizarre price for him – he’s even more expensive than Jalen Hurts! This is, quite simply, a bad price for Brown, but that said, we know he has the ceiling to pay it off and I’m hopeful that the price will keep his ownership a bit in check (say, 40-45% vs. the 55-60% I would expect if he were priced normally). I’m in.
Goedert’s a tough one to invest in, as last year we saw his role be fairly modest when the Eagles were otherwise healthy. You’re hoping for a touchdown here, but even if you get one, it’s possible he still doesn’t find his way into the optimal lineup. He’s not someone I’d want to X out by any means, but I think he’s likely to be over-owned relative to his likelihood of being in winning lineups. Dotson at WR3 is interesting as he replaces a series of fairly low-talent guys the Eagles have had in that role previously. Dotson was viewed as a breakout guy last year before disappointing, but that was on the Commanders with some atrocious QB play, so it’s entirely feasible to think Dotson is going to thrive in this much better offensive environment. Of course, he’s a clear fourth in the passing game pecking order, but priced below the kickers at $3,200, I think he makes a reasonable punt play. You can also take some MME shots on rotational pass catchers Britain Covey, Johnny Wilson, and Grant Calcaterra.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.