Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- New Panthers head coach Dave Canales fed Rachaad White the second-most touches amongst running backs last season (336, or 20.1 opportunities per game).
- The Panthers’ 18-point team total ranks second to last on the main slate, and we know touchdowns to be heavily correlated to both quarterback and running back fantasy production.
- This game “features” two teams with poor offensive lines (CAR – 20th, NO – 32nd per PFF and CAR – 20th, NO – 23rd per Sharp Football Analysis).
- Taysom Hill is probably going to “ruin” some DFS slates this season. His preseason usage, alignments, and snap rates all tell as much. That said, he’s likely going to need multiple touchdowns to find his way onto optimal rosters on a given week, but that’s very much within his weekly range of outcomes in this offense.
- I expect the Saints to be extremely run-heavy in the red zone this season, which reinforces the previous note. Alvin Kamara has struggled in the red zone as his career has progressed, Jamaal Williams has struggled in pretty much all areas since the start of the 2023 season, and Kendre Miller landed on injured reserve to start the season.
- This game provides very few paths to eruption, restricting our interest to the primary pieces from each offense. Even then, those players don’t necessarily bring immense upside here.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
The Panthers usher in a new era with the hiring of head coach Dave Canales. Canales, widely regarded as a quarterback whisperer after serving as the Seahawks’ quarterbacks coach during Geno Smith’s breakout in 2022 and the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers during Baker Mayfield’s career season in 2023, takes over for a franchise looking to overcome a dreadful rookie season from then-rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Although this will be Canales’ offense, new offensive coordinator Brad Idzik worked with Canales for each of the previous two seasons, serving as the wide receiver coach for both the Seahawks and Buccaneers in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Other changes this offseason include the arrival of two new wide receivers in Diontae Johnson and rookie first-rounder Xavier Legette, offensive guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, rookie second-round running back Jonathon Brooks (PUP list to start the season – will miss the first four games, at minimum), and a pair of starters in the secondary. Canales’ offense last season with the Bucs ranked 18th in pace of play (28.7 seconds per play) and 13th in both overall pass rate (60.9%) and first-half pass rate (62.1%). Most interestingly, Canales’ offense held a 23rd-ranked 48.0% first-down pass rate but a fourth-ranked 87.7% third-down pass rate.
What is most interesting about that split is the fact that White managed just 3.34 yards per carry on first down last season, which ranked 49th of 56 players to see at least 50 touches on first down in 2023. Even through that atrocious efficiency, Canales continued with above-average first-down rush rates with the Bucs. The other side of that story is the absolutely immense volume Canales fed his primary back, giving White 336 total touches (second in the league at running back behind only Christian McCaffrey).
With Brooks out the first four weeks of the regular season, the bulk of those opportunities are likeliest to fall onto former starting running back Chuba Hubbard’s shoulders to start the year. Hubbard managed middling metrics behind one of the worst offensive lines in the leagues last season, to the tune of a 3.8% explosive rush rate, 3.79 yards-per-carry mark, a ridiculous 45.8% stuffed-run rate, and 0.16 missed tackles forced per attempt. Last year with Canales, White saw 55.5% of his carries behind zone concepts and 44.1% behind man/gap concepts, effectively in line with what Hubbard saw a season ago (57.1% zone, 42.4% man/gap).
Hubbard largely lacked success behind both concepts a season ago, with a 43.4% success rate, 4.04 yards per carry, and just one touchdown behind zone-blocking concepts and a 53.5% success rate, 351 yards, and four touchdowns behind man/gap blocking concepts. Pro Football Focus has the Panthers as the 20th-ranked offensive line heading into 2024, with the largest improvements likely found in pass protection Hunt and Taylor Moton forming “one of the better right guard-right tackle combinations in the league.” The Saints allowed 4.4 yards per carry in 2023 under returning defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Woods has a large pass-game influence to his defensive coaching career and his defenses were nothing to write home about against the run during his time in Cleveland (2020-2022), allowing 4.7 yards per carry (25th), 4.2 yards per carry (12th), and 4.3 yards per carry (13th) in that span. Hubbard is likely to be backed up, as he was in 2023, by Miles Sanders.
Canales largely kept his cards close to the vest during the preseason, playing Young on just 12 offensive snaps. Johnson led the way amongst pass catchers, playing all 12 of the offensive snaps with Young, followed by Adam Thielen (11). The WR3 role was largely split between Jonathan Mingo and Legette. Canales utilized 11-personnel near league-average rates during the preseason at 66%, augmenting that with 31% 12-personnel mixed in. The rest of the pass-catching snaps should be split in some fashion amongst tight ends Ian Thomas (27.6% route participation rate in 2023), Tommy Tremble (40.6% route participation rate in 2023), and rookie fourth-rounder Ja’Tavion Sanders.
One of the biggest cases for upside in Canales’ offense is a robust and layered route tree from his wide receivers, which simultaneously increases the upside for veterans Johnson and Thielen while diminishing the upside for the unproven players in Mingo and Legette, the latter two of whom have yet to demonstrate the ability to command large portions of the route tree in their respective careers. The Legette pick in this year’s draft, in particular, left me scratching my head considering he is about as raw as they come out of college. That is likely to leave his snap rates fairly low to start the season, in my opinion. Canales hinted at an offense built around Johnson early in the offseason but also said that his quarterback will be charged with making it through his progressions as defenses adapt. Young’s 63.0% first-read target rate and 19.9% off-target throw rate from his rookie year indicate there might be some growing pains in that plan to start the season.
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