XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football brings us the Rams visiting the Lions for a game with a whopping 52.5 total (highest of the week by a comfortable margin) with Detroit favored by 4.5. Of note here is that Fanduel has decided to include this game on their main slate, and as of now, they do not have any large single-game contests for this one. Boo, I say. Boo (update: FD did add single game contests). I thought this spread looked close at first glance until I realized that the Rams scored 23.7 points per game last year while both teams were below average in points allowed per game to opponents…this one looks like a barn-burner.
Detroit
The Lions are bringing back the same two-headed backfield that they used to great success last year with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery splitting the work. While sometimes frustrating for DFS purposes as the split capped their volume, this offense was productive enough that both were successful throughout the season, largely on the back of 24 combined touchdowns between the two of them. The question is whether this will recur again. Montgomery was historically kept around the 15-ish carry mark in most games and averaged just about 1.5 targets per game, so he’s heavily reliant on some kind of breakaway run and/or touchdowns in order to pay off. It’s hard to find a big ceiling on 15 carries and 1 target unless you get into the end zone at least once, and even then it’s no guarantee he would be in the optimal (call it like 13-15 DK points for a 15 carry, 1 target, 1 touchdown scenario). At $6,600, he’s priced for a timeshare, but I’m concerned about his ability to win us tournaments even if things go his way – it feels like he needs a multi-touchdown game to really break the slate open. Gibbs is more expensive at $8,400 but his big play ability (5.2 YPC vs. 4.6 for Monty) and especially his passing game role in DK’s PPR format give him access to a higher ceiling. I’m likely going to end up overweight on Gibbs and underweight on Monty.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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The Lions passing game is largely the same as last year. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the alpha wide receiver with Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond (previously on the team but behind Josh Reynolds, who is now departed) rounding out the primary WR trio. Backing them up are…well, Isaiah Williams according to their depth chart, with nobody else on the active roster, but I expect they’ll call someone up from the practice squad to serve as their WR5. St. Brown is the clear big dog here with a whopping 30.2% target share (5th in the NFL last year) – it’s basically impossible to say anything negative about him except that he’s the highest priced player on the slate at $11,000 (and the only player over $10k). Williams has had a slow start to his career but has drawn rave reviews in training camp. At $5,400, I feel like it’s a spot to bet on talent and be overweight on a player who is probably going to be more expensive in a few weeks. Raymond’s kind of just a guy – he’s a capable NFL receiver but doesn’t really stand out. He should be on the field plenty but he’s going to be behind the other wide receivers, Sam LaPorta, and Gibbs in the target tree. He’s a punt play.
At tight end, we have the aforementioned LaPorta, who broke the “rookie tight ends struggle to adjust to the NFL” stereotype last year with 1,065 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He brings a strong combination of floor and ceiling to the table at $7,400, and I would go so far as to say I am tempted to force at least 1 of St. Brown and LaPorta in every roster I build for this game (I may include Gibbs in that and have it be a “between 1 and 2” rule).
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