GAME OVERVIEW::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Cowboys have had a tumultuous offseason as their stars seek contract extensions. Last week, CeeDee Lamb finally landed his big payday and returned to practice while Dak Prescott is still waiting. Both are set to play in Week 1.
- The Cowboys receiving corps behind Lamb has a lot of questions with Brandin Cooks battling a knee injury and then a slew of receivers with limited experience and pedigree.
- This will be the first game with a new defensive coordinator and scheme for the Dallas defense. They will also be without some key defenders, which could lead to some early season issues.
- The Browns will be without Nick Chubb for the first four games of the season but will have Deshaun Watson back under center for the first time since his severe shoulder injury ended his 2023 season.
- Cleveland has historically been a run-heavy offense under Kevin Stefanski and may continue that trend this year as they look to protect Watson’s shoulder and limit hits.
- This game’s projected point total is far lower than most Cowboys games from 2023, in large part due to the Browns defensive strength.
HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Cowboys offense revolves primarily around two players – Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. After a 2023 season which saw them move to a pass-heavy and aggressive approach after their Week 7 bye with a great deal of success, we can assume similar splits for them this year. The concerns entering the year stem around those two primary players and their statuses with the team. Lamb “held in” for most of training camp before signing a massive contract last week. The Cowboys will have him back for Week 1, but we have seen many times where a player who misses large chunks of training camp will have a tough ramp-up period in terms of being more susceptible to injuries. This means that the Cowboys will either have to temper down their usage of Lamb or potentially be putting him at risk of injury. He led the NFL in targets last season and was also given about one rushing attempt per game. He should still be the focal point, but he may not have the target ceiling we are used to seeing for him as the Cowboys have to think about the long haul.
The Dallas running game was mediocre last season and has had some downgrades on the offensive line while their running back room is made up of career special teamer Rico Dowdle, trusted veteran Ezekiel Elliott, and potentially recent veteran pickup Dalvin Cook. This week they face a stout Cleveland defense that will almost certainly leave Dallas with a very inefficient rushing attack that may force them to abandon ship early in the game and become the pass-happy unit we saw in 2023. If Dallas tries to force the issue on the ground, they will be leaving themselves in a lot of “2nd and 8” to “second and 12” situations. The last thing you want to do is be behind the chains against Myles Garrett and the Browns pass rush, so I would expect a very high first down pass rate for the Cowboys in this game.
We know the Cowboys will likely be forced to throw at a high rate, the Browns have a great pass rush, and the Cowboys defense is going to be more “bend but don’t break” under Mike Zimmer than they were under the uber-aggressive Dan Quinn. The Browns also played man coverage at a top-10 rate in 2023 as they relied heavily on their Cover-1 scheme and outstanding secondary personnel. All of these factors lead to a situation where the Cowboys are unlikely to fall behind substantially and be pushed by the Browns to where they have to force the issue downfield, leading to a high rate of checkdowns and underneath targets. Obviously, Lamb will likely be the leading target for Dallas, but tight end Jake Ferguson and the running backs will likely be very involved as well. Dallas may take some shots downfield to secondary receivers Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert if Cleveland gives Lamb too much attention, but this doesn’t have the feel of a game where Dallas comes out with an aggressive vertical attack considering the strength of Cleveland’s pass rush, the expected lack of rushing success, and the lack of reps for the first team offense. To sum it all up, expect a high pass rate (especially on early downs) with the ball being spread around a bit and Dallas being more conservative than usual.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.