GAME OVERVIEW::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Bo Nix era will start in Denver as the rookie looks to build on an impressive training camp and preseason.
- Denver made some cuts of veterans who can still play a bit, as they seem intent on resetting things this year.
- After over a decade with Pete Carroll running the show, Seattle will welcome in the Mike Macdonald era. Macdonald will bring his quality, but complex, defensive scheme from the Ravens, and new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will look to spark the Seahawks offense with the same concepts that led to high-flying offense at the University of Washington.
- Denver was bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in 2023 and has an improved running back room. Sean Payton offenses have historically used their backs extensively and it won’t be surprising if Broncos backs combine for 35 opportunities in this one.
- One of the most critical matchups for this game will be the weak Seattle offensive line dealing with a Broncos defense that blitzed at the 5th highest rate in the NFL last year.
HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Broncos are clearly committed to the future, with first round pick Bo Nix inserted as the starting quarterback and the releases of veterans Samaje Perine and Tim Patrick (who were quickly picked up by contenders). The Broncos have sent a clear signal about their direction. Surrounding Nix will be a supporting cast that has a lot of questions. Javonte Williams will lead the running back room with Jaleel McLaughlin likely to play a meaningful role as well. Rookie Audric Estime has generated a lot of buzz from the coaching staff and should get opportunities as the year progresses and Denver likely fades from playoff contention. The release of Patrick from the wide receiver room opens up opportunities for the younger options Denver has. Courtland Sutton is clearly the top option and Denver passed on some trade offers for him while veteran Josh Reynolds appears set to have a large role in terms of snap share as well. Second year wide receiver Marvin Mims profiled well entering the league and made some big plays as a rookie but never carved out a consistent role or production in 2023. The release of Patrick should secure a spot in 11-personnel for Mims. The Broncos will likely rotate tight ends, with Greg Dulcich likely to play most passing downs as long as he can stay healthy after an injury-riddled 2023.
Bo Nix loved the check-down in college, as he led the nation in passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Part of that can be attributed to scheme, but that is also a big reason why the Broncos took him with the 12th overall pick in April’s draft. Sean Payton’s offenses have historically targeted running backs at a very high rate and both Williams and McLaughlin are very capable receivers. We should expect those two backs to combine for double digit targets in Week 1 as Denver looks to ease Nix into things and play to his strengths and tendencies. Adding to that likelihood is the exotic blitzes that Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is likely to throw at Nix, which should necessitate check downs and hot routes to get rid of the ball quickly. Some schemed short area work for Mims would also make sense, with Sutton, Reynolds, and Dulcich likely to dominate the intermediate work, and Sutton likely to be the one on the receiving end of any deep shots they may take thanks to his contested catch ability.
The Broncos play at a relatively slow pace, ranking 28th in the NFL in seconds per snap in 2023 despite trailing in many games and struggling to an 8-9 record. This is consistent with Sean Payton’s tendencies from his New Orleans days, as the Saints ranked bottom 10 in raw pace of play in Payton’s last three seasons there. The Broncos will likely try to use most, if not all, of the play clock each snap against the Seahawks to allow Nix to evaluate what Seattle is doing and not get lit up by their exotic blitzes. Overall, Denver’s approach to this one is going to be a methodical pace of play and a heavy emphasis on the running game and short area passing. Nix showed he was capable of pushing the ball downfield a bit during the preseason, but preseason defenses are generally very “vanilla” compared to what you see in the regular season, and that dichotomy is only exaggerated by Macdonald’s scheme. Denver will try to keep this one close and win a lower scoring game.
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