GAME OVERVIEW::
By Hilow >>
- The Patriots are sure to run their offense through the running backs for as long as they are within striking distance here.
- The biggest problem with that is that they are instilled with the lowest team total on the slate and running backs derive so much value from touchdowns.
- New England’s pass-catching corps is going to give Best Ballers fits to start the season – not fun.
- Ja’Marr Chase is still executing a “hold-in” as he lobbies for a new contract. Although I expect them to reach an agreement and for Chase to play, the loss of camp repetitions and conditioning could influence the Bengals offensive game plan in Week 1.
- The Patriots have a stout secondary on paper but should struggle to generate pressure in the backfield, something that is likely to result in opposing passing offenses eventually breaking through against them this season.
HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN::
The post-Bill Belichick era has begun in New England, with former Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo making the leap to head coach after spending five seasons with the franchise as the inside linebackers coach. The team also hired from within to fill their defensive coordinator position with the hiring of DeMarcus Covington, who previously served as the outside linebackers coach (2019) and defensive line coach (2020-2023) for the Patriots. They then brought in former Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to serve in the same position. On top of all the coaching changes this offseason, the Patriots completely retooled their pass-catching corps in addition to entering the 2024 season with an almost entirely new front six on the defensive side of the ball. Their secondary, for what it’s worth, remains pretty stout on paper. When examining how we expect this team to try to win games this season, we likely must start with the defense. Until last season, Van Pelt’s offenses had been more reserved in Cleveland as far as pace of play and pass rates are concerned, typically in the bottom 10 in the league in both metrics. Considering the presence of a defensive-minded head coach and an offense entirely lagging in skill as compared to their defense, it’s safe to assume we see this team dial back the aggression until otherwise prompted. The Patriots enter the regular season with longtime journeyman backup Jacoby Brissett under center, although first-round rookie Drake Maye will see starts at some point. In my opinion, the decision to start Brissett to begin the year was made not because he is the better quarterback, but as a way to figure out their bottom-barrel offensive line prior to throwing their potential franchise quarterback to the wolves.
That discussion also means we’re likely to see an even more reserved offense to start the season with Brissett under center. Starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson saw little work during the preseason, handling just seven carries and seeing no targets through two games before resting in the team’s final tilt. Even so, the offensive game plan likely runs through the veteran to begin the season. The problem is he’ll likely find the sledding difficult behind an offensive line ranked 30th in the league by Sharp Football Analysis and 28th by PFF. That isn’t a lot to instill confidence in this rushing attack coming off a season where Patriots backs averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. Lou Anarumo’s 4-3 base defense remains largely unchanged as far as the expected scheme goes heading into 2024, with the major additions to personnel being DT Sheldon Rankins and a pair of veteran safeties in Vonn Bell and Geno Stone. Rankins struggled mightily against the run a season ago, suffering poor grades from PFF. Considering the Bengals are coming off a season in which they ceded 4.7 yards per carry and failed to significantly address their run defense this offseason, I expect the Patriots to have some level of success on the ground for as long as this game remains within striking distance. This then brings the expected game environment into play, which does the Patriots no favors considering the largest spread of the weekend (CIN -8.5). Finally, the Patriots are instilled with the lowest team total on the slate at just 16.0 points. Add it up and it likely creates a situation where the Patriots want to try and run for as long as possible but their final rush volume is subject to a game environment not working in their favor. Offseason addition Antonio Gibson is likely to serve as the change of pace back with the inside track to playing on clear passing downs.
I legitimately have no clue what this pass-catching corps is going to look like to open the season. Rookie wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk is clearly the most talented player they have but preseason usage indicates we might see a head-scratching rotation to start. In the team’s final preseason tilt, it was K.J. Osborn and Tyquan Thornton that drew the start from 12-personnel, with Polk mixing in with the two after two drives. The three places where we have a little more fidelity are at tight end, with Hunter Henry the clear “starter,” and at slot receiver, which should be controlled by second-year receiver DeMario Douglas; and the fact that Javon Baker is likely not going to see the field much to begin the season. While Douglas is expected to command the slot reps, he is likely capped around 60-65% of the weekly snaps after he played zero perimeter snaps in the preseason for a team that ran 11-personnel near league-average rates at 67%. My best guess here is that Best Ballers are going to be in an uproar over Polk’s opportunities initially. With Kendrick Bourne’s return also looming, this could be a difficult wide receiver group to nail down on a weekly basis. And then there’s the matchup against a Bengals team expected to be far better against the pass than they are against the run yet again. Not much to love here even if this team falls behind big early.
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