XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Welcome, friends, to the 2024 NFL season! It kicks off with the Ravens visiting the Chiefs for a 46.5 total game in which the defending champs are favored by 2.5. This is a weird matchup in that we tend to think of these teams as both being high-powered offenses, but last year they ranked 1st and 2nd in fewest opponent points allowed per game, while Baltimore was 4th in offensive points scored and the Chiefs were middle of the pack at 14th. My sense is that the Chiefs offense underperformed last year. Patrick Mahomes had the lowest touchdown rate of his career, something that should see some positive regression (especially because his receiving corps looks a lot better this year than it did last year). We’re also dealing with two teams that have historically been very difficult to pick apart for Showdown because they both run deep skill position player groups and it can be tough to figure out where the ball is likeliest to go. Let’s dig in and see if we can figure out how to attack this one. 

Week 1 Reminder

First, a caveat I talk about every year: we know very little in Week 1. Oh, we have some ideas. We generally know who the starters are. But our level of confidence in what we think we know should be low, because every year we’re surprised by how teams play. Some teams just play much better or worse than expected, some teams use players in ways that are different from what any analyst expected, some guys we thought would have full-time roles do not, etc. The point is, in tournaments, embrace the variance. Recognize that the field (and the DFS analyst community, including yours truly) could be very wrong about things, and if you have a strong lean on something, go for it. 

Baltimore

On the Ravens side, the backfield is made up of new acquisition Derrick Henry, backed up by old familiar face Justice Hill. Past those two guys, Rasheen Ali is in the concussion protocol. I’d expect the Ravens not to take any risk with him (he’s the RB3 who is likely to barely see the field, after all) and to sign or elevate someone, but really this is going to be about Henry and Hill. Henry is someone we’re going to have to start viewing very differently for DFS purposes compared to his time on the Titans. With Tennessee, we often saw him with enormous volume (25+ carry games were not uncommon), while Baltimore has very rarely allowed a running back to touch the ball even 20 times in a game. But, he’s also likely to see more trips to the red zone on a much better offense. The likelihood of big yardage games goes down, but the touchdown equity goes up. At his price, I’m not especially enthusiastic as a road underdog running back with an unlikely path to big volume, but the RB1 on this offense carries ceiling due to how the Ravens score on the ground, and he’s also one of the clearest leverage points on Lamar Jackson, who will be extremely highly owned, so I don’t think he’s a complete stay away for me. I will probably aim to be overweight on him at captain and roughly equal or slightly under in flex. Hill is someone I’m not likely to be on much as he only had three games of double-digit DK points last season (what you’d need for him at his $4,400 salary) and one of them took two touchdowns (with just nine rushing yards). 

In the air, we’ll see the Ravens trot out a receiving corps of Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, and Rashod Bateman at wide receiver with Mark Andrews at tight end. Flowers and Andrews are the key guys here. Flowers had a healthy 24.4% target share last season while Andrews was at 22.2% (though as you’d expect from a big tight end, Andrews dominated the red zone targets with a 37.7% share). Past those two guys, things really spread out for the Ravens. Bateman was next with just a 12.4% share of targets. Baltimore was also tied for last place in pass attempts per game last year with just 29.1, so we have a low volume passing offense that is concentrated in its top two guys but then spread out beyond that. When price is factored in, Andrews is the top play here for me – he’s just $6,400, and he was more expensive than that in every single game last season (in fact his cheapest regular season Showdown salary was $8,000). Overall, the pricing looks a bit soft in this game, but it’s especially so on Andrews. Flowers is, of course, a reasonable play as well but the old “don’t play wide receivers against the Chiefs” narrative still held true last year as they were consistently strong against the position, and Andrews just seems like a stronger play for a lower salary. As will almost always be the case this season, every other pass catcher on Baltimore is something of a dart throw. We can’t reasonably project more than three or four targets at most for anyone else so it’s going to come down to if anyone finds the end zone. Of the starters, I do have a modest lean towards Agholor over Bateman as I think they’re fairly similar but Agholor is a lot cheaper. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

One guy I’m interested in as a punt play is Isaiah Likely, who is of course the direct backup to Mark Andrews. Andrews is listed questionable as I write this (on Saturday). He’s expected to play, but he was in a car accident just a couple of weeks ago so maybe Baltimore takes it a bit easy on him in Week 1? Or maybe, they just realize that Likely is a highly talented pass catcher and it’s silly to bury him on the bench when the NFL rules do, in fact, allow you to have two tight ends on the field at the same time. Early in the season when this stuff is totally unknown is an interesting spot to bet on talent, and Likely has tons of talent. At $2,600, he’s the right price for a “he just needs a touchdown” punt play, and I think we won’t see a lot of ownership here with Andrews active and Likely not down at the sub-$1k price level. We’ll probably also see a bit of guys like Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker, and Deonte Harty rotating in for a few snaps and they can be used as punt options. I’d prefer Wallace of them but they are all, of course, very thin. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 brings us a Friday night game (extra Showdown!) in Brazil, of all places. I guess we’re trying to convince them that football is actually soccer by showing them real football? I don’t know. Anyhow, we have a healthy 48.5 total with Philly favored by about 2 points (which may be kind of a bad line considering the Eagles were 11-6 last year and two years removed from making the Super Bowl, while the Packers were just an above-average 9-8). There’s also some extremely odd pricing in this one compared to Thursday’s game . . . we’ll get to that. I’m mainly just excited about getting an extra Showdown in the first week!

Philadelphia

On the Eagles side, their new-look backfield has Saquon Barkley in the lead back role, backed up by some combination of Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Will Shipley. The Eagles have a fairly long history of not using running backs in bell cow roles – it’s rare for an Eagles back to see 20+ carries (only twice last year). But, keep in mind, that’s trending down across the entire NFL these days. De’Andre Swift saw 229 carries and 49 targets last year in 15 full games, which comes out to a healthy by current NFL standards, 18.5 opportunities per game. I think that’s what we should view as a floor for Saquon with upside for more, which at $9,400, puts Saquon in play though not as some sort of screaming value. He’s solid, especially if you believe the 2 point spread is a bad line. Past Saquon, it’s unclear how we’ll see Shipley and Gainwell being used. The Eagles have had some kind of love affair with Gainwell for years now, keeping him consistently involved as a backup. I’d expect that role to continue and would estimate something like 6-10 touches for him, while Shipley’s role is more up in the air. Shipley should be more of a direct backup to Saquon should he go down, but as long as Saquon’s active, I think Shipley is likely to only get a couple of breather carries here and there. At $3,400, Gainwell’s a reasonable value play as his role is such that if he gets a touchdown, he’s probably in the optimal lineup, as he’ll also get a catch or two and a few carries.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Eagles bring back their primary guys: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, while replacing their WR3 role with Jahan Dotson. It’s always tough figuring out which Philly pass catcher is likeliest to go off and there are positives for both of the main WRs. For Brown, the Packers run some of the highest rates of Cover-1 and Cover-3, and Brown has absolute elite targets per route run and yards per route run numbers against those coverage schemes. Smith was running a lot of slot in training camp, or rather the current trend of the “uber slot” role (think Cooper Kupp a couple of years ago, CeeDee Lamb last year, etc.). If that role holds, we should see a really big season for Smith. Of the two, I lean towards Brown based on the matchup, but here’s where things get weird. As I mentioned earlier, pricing is strange in this one. Brown’s the strange one. $11k is a bizarre price for him – he’s even more expensive than Jalen Hurts! This is, quite simply, a bad price for Brown, but that said, we know he has the ceiling to pay it off and I’m hopeful that the price will keep his ownership a bit in check (say, 40-45% vs. the 55-60% I would expect if he were priced normally). I’m in. 

Goedert’s a tough one to invest in, as last year we saw his role be fairly modest when the Eagles were otherwise healthy. You’re hoping for a touchdown here, but even if you get one, it’s possible he still doesn’t find his way into the optimal lineup. He’s not someone I’d want to X out by any means, but I think he’s likely to be over-owned relative to his likelihood of being in winning lineups. Dotson at WR3 is interesting as he replaces a series of fairly low-talent guys the Eagles have had in that role previously. Dotson was viewed as a breakout guy last year before disappointing, but that was on the Commanders with some atrocious QB play, so it’s entirely feasible to think Dotson is going to thrive in this much better offensive environment. Of course, he’s a clear fourth in the passing game pecking order, but priced below the kickers at $3,200, I think he makes a reasonable punt play. You can also take some MME shots on rotational pass catchers Britain Covey, Johnny Wilson, and Grant Calcaterra.

Green Bay

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• James Conner is in a solid on-paper spot here.
• Drew Petzing’s run scheme is phenomenal, but his pass scheme is borderline ridiculously bad. Low pre-snap motions rates, low play action rates, and a low emphasis on downfield passing are going to be hard to overcome for the primary pass-catchers in this offense all season unless he changes the way he has built his offense during the offseason.
• There aren’t many clear paths for this game to elevate beyond its game total due to how we expect both of these teams to game plan coming in.
• Taking a step back from name recognition and offseason hype, there are currently 14 teams with a Vegas-implied team total higher than the Cardinals’ 21 points on the main slate.
• The Bills pass offense is a breeding ground of uncertainty entering the year.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Head coach Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals did what they could to keep their collective heads above water last season with a poor mix of personnel on the defensive side of the ball, quarterback Kyler Murray starting the season on the PUP list, and no true alpha pass-catcher. Things, understandably, did not go well as they surrendered a 31st-ranked 26.8 points per game while scoring just 19.4 points per game. Things got slightly better once Murray returned in Week 10 as they averaged 22.4 points per game over their final eight contests (would have ranked 14th over the full season, ahead of the Chiefs). Most notably, Petzing’s 2023 offense finished the regular season ranked second in yards per carry (5.0) and 29th in yards per pass attempt (6.2). Petzing, a longtime offensive assistant in the league, shied away from pre-snap motion and play action in 2023, something that hindered Murray’s ability to attack the deep areas of the field. His 7.3 intended air yards per pass attempt ranked 24th in the league, and that was with the speed of Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore on the field. The more straightforward passing game concepts rest in stark contrast to his dynamic run scheme, which, in my opinion, will place a hard cap on this pass offense for as long as his tendencies remain unchanged. Yes, they have one of the most dynamic young tight ends in Trey McBride and arguably the top wide receiver prospect to enter the league since Justin Jefferson, but this pass offense is static on paper and lacks much creativity, placing the responsibility on the pass-catcher to win as opposed to placing him in the best opportunity to win. To that end, I expect the Cardinals to continue pounding the ball on the ground for as long as possible against the Bills here.

Lead back James Conner’s participation in the passing game continues to fall as his career has progressed, but the Leukemia survivor’s yards per carry and underlying rushing metrics were nothing short of spectacular last season. His 6.3% breakaway run rate ranked seventh in the league while evading the 10th most tackles. Some of that revival should be attributed to Petzing’s run-blocking scheme, which remains one of the better designs in the league. Even so, Conner was in a route at a lowly 33.6% clip last season and managed just 27 receptions. As in, he’ll need to maintain extreme efficiency, hold off a budding rookie nipping at his heels, stay healthy, and maintain a robust red zone role in order to hit this season. That’s a lot of hoops to jump through. But in this spot, all of that aligns with how we expect the Cardinals to approach their game plan against the Bills, and Trey Benson is likely not ready for more than strict change of pace duties. The Bills are fresh off a season in which they allowed a robust 4.7 yards per carry and lost multiple members of the linebacker and secondary units during the offseason. Conner is in a solid on-paper spot here, albeit one that likely requires 100 yards and multiple touchdowns to return GPP goodness.

Kyler Murray attempted 268 passes in 10 games last season, only 65 of which came behind play action. For comparison, Jared Goff attempted 606 passes, and 160 of them were behind play action. I use those as the comparison because of the similarities between the two offenses, primarily with their respective run games. All of that boils down to mean that Petzing does little to leverage his elite run game through the air, instead treating it as a relative afterthought. Murray also saw a lowly 23.0% yards per attempt boost behind play action, which ranked 21st in the league (that’s about the same as Bryce Young and Russell Wilson at 21.0%). Until I see Petzing ramping up the downfield aggression and layering more dynamic routes, it will be hard for me to target this passing game, personally. But they still have one of the most dynamic young tight ends and wide receivers in the game, so time will tell. I’m simply relaying what I saw on tape last season. There’s also little doubt that both McBride and Harrison Jr will absolutely dominate the targets in this offense, and volume means a lot in PPR formats. Second-year wide receiver Michael Wilson should start opposite Harrison in heavy alignments, while it finally appears Greg Dortch will see a full (slot) allotment of snaps. We’ve continued to rave about Dortch’s abilities against man coverage and his ability to win within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage, something that could come into play when this team faces an elite pass rush. The Bills did manage 54 sacks a season ago but lost some elite players in the second level this offseason.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW::

By Hilow >>

• The Patriots are sure to run their offense through the running backs for as long as they are within striking distance here.
• The biggest problem with that is that they are instilled with the lowest team total on the slate and running backs derive so much value from touchdowns.
• New England’s pass-catching corps is going to give Best Ballers fits to start the season – not fun.
• Ja’Marr Chase is still executing a “hold-in” as he lobbies for a new contract. Although I expect them to reach an agreement and for Chase to play, the loss of camp repetitions and conditioning could influence the Bengals offensive game plan in Week 1.
• The Patriots have a stout secondary on paper but should struggle to generate pressure in the backfield, something that is likely to result in opposing passing offenses eventually breaking through against them this season.

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

The post-Bill Belichick era has begun in New England, with former Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo making the leap to head coach after spending five seasons with the franchise as the inside linebackers coach. The team also hired from within to fill their defensive coordinator position with the hiring of DeMarcus Covington, who previously served as the outside linebackers coach (2019) and defensive line coach (2020-2023) for the Patriots. They then brought in former Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to serve in the same position. On top of all the coaching changes this offseason, the Patriots completely retooled their pass-catching corps in addition to entering the 2024 season with an almost entirely new front six on the defensive side of the ball. Their secondary, for what it’s worth, remains pretty stout on paper. When examining how we expect this team to try to win games this season, we likely must start with the defense. Until last season, Van Pelt’s offenses had been more reserved in Cleveland as far as pace of play and pass rates are concerned, typically in the bottom 10 in the league in both metrics. Considering the presence of a defensive-minded head coach and an offense entirely lagging in skill as compared to their defense, it’s safe to assume we see this team dial back the aggression until otherwise prompted. The Patriots enter the regular season with longtime journeyman backup Jacoby Brissett under center, although first-round rookie Drake Maye will see starts at some point. In my opinion, the decision to start Brissett to begin the year was made not because he is the better quarterback, but as a way to figure out their bottom-barrel offensive line prior to throwing their potential franchise quarterback to the wolves.

That discussion also means we’re likely to see an even more reserved offense to start the season with Brissett under center. Starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson saw little work during the preseason, handling just seven carries and seeing no targets through two games before resting in the team’s final tilt. Even so, the offensive game plan likely runs through the veteran to begin the season. The problem is he’ll likely find the sledding difficult behind an offensive line ranked 30^th in the league by Sharp Football Analysis and 28th by PFF. That isn’t a lot to instill confidence in this rushing attack coming off a season where Patriots backs averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. Lou Anarumo’s 4-3 base defense remains largely unchanged as far as the expected scheme goes heading into 2024, with the major additions to personnel being DT Sheldon Rankins and a pair of veteran safeties in Vonn Bell and Geno Stone. Rankins struggled mightily against the run a season ago, suffering poor grades from PFF. Considering the Bengals are coming off a season in which they ceded 4.7 yards per carry and failed to significantly address their run defense this offseason, I expect the Patriots to have some level of success on the ground for as long as this game remains within striking distance. This then brings the expected game environment into play, which does the Patriots no favors considering the largest spread of the weekend (CIN -8.5). Finally, the Patriots are instilled with the lowest team total on the slate at just 16.0 points. Add it up and it likely creates a situation where the Patriots want to try and run for as long as possible but their final rush volume is subject to a game environment not working in their favor. Offseason addition Antonio Gibson is likely to serve as the change of pace back with the inside track to playing on clear passing downs.

I legitimately have no clue what this pass-catching corps is going to look like to open the season. Rookie wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk is clearly the most talented player they have but preseason usage indicates we might see a head-scratching rotation to start. In the team’s final preseason tilt, it was K.J. Osborn and Tyquan Thornton that drew the start from 12-personnel, with Polk mixing in with the two after two drives. The three places where we have a little more fidelity are at tight end, with Hunter Henry the clear “starter,” and at slot receiver, which should be controlled by second-year receiver DeMario Douglas; and the fact that Javon Baker is likely not going to see the field much to begin the season. While Douglas is expected to command the slot reps, he is likely capped around 60-65% of the weekly snaps after he played zero perimeter snaps in the preseason for a team that ran 11-personnel near league-average rates at 67%. My best guess here is that Best Ballers are going to be in an uproar over Polk’s opportunities initially. With Kendrick Bourne’s return also looming, this could be a difficult wide receiver group to nail down on a weekly basis. And then there’s the matchup against a Bengals team expected to be far better against the pass than they are against the run yet again. Not much to love here even if this team falls behind big early.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Vikings will enter the post-Kirk Cousins era in 2024 with Sam Darnold under center and seeking a career resurgence.
• Daniel Jones returns from last season’s torn ACL and will start the year as the QB1 for the Giants while looking over his shoulder at Drew Lock, who could replace him at some point if things don’t go well.
• Minnesota will likely run the ball at a higher rate than we have seen in past seasons due to its QB situation and the improved strength of their offensive line.
• New York will likely have a more concentrated offensive attack than we are used to seeing from them as Brian Daboll looks to utilize his new toys.
• Turnovers will be the name of the game as Darnold and Jones play a game of “chicken” to see who can keep it together the longest.

How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is a terrific offensive mind and is great at putting his players in position to succeed. His task this year will be the biggest he has had in Minnesota as he tries to revitalize the career of Darnold and does so without TJ Hockenson for at least a few weeks and with Jordan Addison’s injury and legal status in limbo. As Greg Brainos at Coachspeak Index pointed out to us this summer, the Vikings re-signed fullback C.J. Ham to an extension last offseason and have been talking him up all summer. This is relevant because he will likely be a critical piece to their running game and this team is likely to be far more run-oriented than recent years, when they ranked near the top of the league in PROE (pass rate over expectation). 

The Giants’ defense ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in 2023 in both run defense DVOA and yards per carry allowed. They have a new defensive coordinator in Shane Bowen, who was previously with the Titans. The Giants were second in the league in blitz rate last season under former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, while Bowen’s Titans ranked near the bottom of the league in blitz rate throughout his tenure. Tennessee’s defense usually operated as a bit of a “pass funnel” due to their strength against the run and leaky back end. Considering the Giants’ struggles against the run last season, we should expect them to have a focus on shoring up that area, and they will likely be especially focused on that as they try to force Darnold to beat them.

The basic idea for the Vikings will likely be to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and the running backs. Playing without Hockenson, who led all tight ends in targets per game, should narrow the target tree a bit for Minnesota, as his replacements are nowhere near his ability as a receiver. Offseason signing Aaron Jones will lead the running-back room but will be complemented extensively by Ty Chandler as the Vikings try to keep Jones fresh and healthy deep into the season. Both backs are relatively explosive and are capable pass catchers, so it seems likely that they will combine for close to 30 touches in this game as the Vikings lean on the running game and look for ways to replicate Hockenson’s short-area production. Addison and Jalen Nailor will be the other two primary receivers and could have some opportunities for deep targets if the Giants sell out to stop Jefferson. It will just be a matter of whether or not O’Connell lets Darnold take those types of shots. 

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• This is expected to be a low-scoring game between two teams who want to run the ball. 
• Both teams feature offensive lines ranked in the top 10 by PFF. The Falcons bring back all five starters, and the Steelers have invested a heap of draft picks up front the past two years.
• Both teams have new offensive coordinators. The Falcons brought in Zac Robinson, who is expected to install a scheme like that of the Rams. The Steelers brought in Arthur Smith, who is expected to run the damn ball. 
• Najee Harris is cheap, but it’s hard to trust Smith to feature one RB.
• Bijan Robinson is priced as an elite option. He has upside, but it’s difficult to know how he’ll be used.
• Joey Porter Jr. was used in shadow coverage more than any corner in the league once he became a starter in Week 8 last season. He was lights out. There is a good chance he will chase Drake London. 
• Kyle Pitts should be the most involved he has been in his career. His price is reasonable, and he has the best matchup on the Falcons’ offense.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers finished a surprising 10-7 in 2023. They managed to be one of three teams who emerged from a loaded AFC North that also featured the 13-4 Ravens, 11-6 Browns, and 9-8 Bengals. It’s incredible that the AFC North included the No. 1 seed in the conference, three playoff teams, and four teams above .500. The division’s success was ridiculous, considering two of the teams (Browns/Bengals) played long stretches without their starting quarterbacks, and the Steelers used a horrific combination of Kenny Pickett/Mitch Trubisky/Mason Rudolph. At least Lamar Jackson won MVP. 

The Steelers were understandably displeased with their QB room and made the rare move of dismissing all three. Pickett/Trubisky/Rudolph are gone and have been replaced by the ambiguously bad duo of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Even though Wilson looks washed late in his career, and Fields looks like he plays the wrong position, they are still an upgrade over what Pittsburgh trotted out last year. 

The Steelers trio of terrible QBs wasn’t the only culprit behind last year’s inept offense. Matt “send me to” Canada finished his tenure as one of the worst offensive coordinators in history when he was let go midseason. It was the first time since 1941 that the Steelers made a mid-season coaching change. The Steelers decided they meant business this year, so they hired Arthur Smith. Smith is a simple man. He likes doughnuts, flip phones, Nintendo, and running the damn ball. Hey, the 90s were great, and Smith sees no reason to change anything. Last year, Smith’s Falcons hated passing. They placed dead last in pass rate over expectations (PROE), and second to last in pass rate (44%). Curiously, they also played fast (2^nd in pace) which you wouldn’t normally associate with a team who wants to run all the time. 

The Steelers’ roster is well set up for Smith’s old-school style. They’ve invested a ton of draft capital (RT Broderick Jones- first round/TE Darnell Washington- third round/LT Troy Fautanu- first round/C Zac Frazier- third round/RG Mason McCormick- fourth round) up front over the past two years. They also spent free-agent dollars on RG James Daniel and LG Isaac Seumalo. PFF ranks the Steelers line No. 9 overall, and with Smith’s history of getting the most out of his O-line talent, that might be conservative. They are a young but talented unit, with the upside to be one of the best in the league. 

The Falcons were respectable against the run last season (No. 9 in yards per rush allowed), and struggled to generate a pass rush (18^th in sack rate), but when has Smith ever cared about what the other team does well? Expect the Steelers to come out with a win-on-the-ground-and-defense mentality.

HOW atlanta WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Bears have a lot of hype surrounding them entering the 2024 season, but that also brings heaps of uncertainty.
• Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron continued his aversion to 11-personnel from his Seattle days into the preseason this year, which, in all honesty, does not make a ton of sense considering this team’s depth chart right now.
• The Titans completely cleaned house this offseason and took the franchise in a new direction, signing head coach Brian Callahan, offensive coordinator Nick Holz, and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson. The only thing we can say with certainty is this team is going to look much different after years of smashmouth football under Mike Vrabel.
• Vegas appears to have no clue what to do with this game environment. Surprisingly enough, this game currently has the fourth-highest game total on the slate and a spread of just four points.
• Expect new Bears defensive coordinator Eric Washington to bring the heat and get after Will Levis here after consistently talking about disruption this offseason. He has overseen some remarkable sack numbers in his coaching career.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Titans ownership went in a completely new direction this offseason, firing the triad and bringing in Callahan, Holz, and Wilson to lead the charge. Callahan comes from the Bengals, which were near the top of the league in pass rates in each of the previous three seasons. That said, offseason remarks to the media seem to indicate Callahan’s vision is to be pass-balanced, as opposed to all-out pass-heavy. This team has the defense to pull that off, but I expect the ultimate pass-rush rates to be dictated by the performance of an offensive line with numerous holes.

The addition of rookie left tackle JC Latham will help in that regard, but this is still a unit graded 26^th by Sharp Football Analysis and 30^th by PFF. Most notably, the right side of the offensive line is youthful but unproven between right guard Dillon Radunz and right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere. Radunz excelled in run-blocking metrics a season ago but struggled in pass protection, while Petit-Frere was one of the lowest graded tackles in the league. As expected under Callahan, the Titans utilized 11-personnel at an above average 75% clip during the preseason, something that is a staple of his coaching tree.

Callahan has continued to state that he views Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears as co-starters, even naming them as such in each iteration of the depth chart that has been released by the team. Most notably, he continues to say that both backs are largely interchangeable, meaning this is likely to be a strict timeshare between the two with both backs capable of executing all aspects of the game plan. I wouldn’t put it past Callahan to ride a hot hand should one develop in a given week, meaning either back could feasibly find their way into GPP consideration throughout the season. The difficult part about that is the unpredictability in volume. That simply screams large-field consideration and small-field avoidance.

The Bears were great against the run a season ago, ceding just 3.8 yards per carry and the second-fewest rushing scores, but they too have a defensive-coordinator change. Washington re-enters the defensive-coordinator ranks for the first time since 2019 with the Panthers after serving as the defensive-line coach for the Bills for the previous four seasons, including two seasons in more robust coaching roles as senior defensive assistant and assistant head coach. Washington has been coaching in the league since 2008 and brings a lot of experience to the Bears. As such, the matchup on the ground is far from ideal on paper.

The Titans also made strides to address their pass game this offseason, signing Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in addition to the drafting of Latham. All signs point to a more pass-balanced offense, as GM Ran Carthon did his best to surround second-year quarterback Levis with the best possible supporting cast to continue his growth under center. I would expect the trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley, and Boyd to have clearly defined roles in this offense, with Hopkins the prototypical “X” receiver, Ridley the prototypical “Z” receiver, and Boyd the prototypical “Y” receiver, although Treylon Burks could feasibly force his way into the lineup with continued growth. I don’t necessarily see that happening at great frequency early in the season, but offseason reports were steadily positive on Burks this year. 

As clear-cut as the wide-receiver shakeout is, the tight-end situation is far from stable. The team held four tight ends on the 53-man roster through cut downs and Chigoziem Okonkwo did not see the expectedly high snap rates with the starters during preseason, although it was Nick Vannett that was rotated through with Okonkwo and he was released in final cuts. Okonkwo’s athletic profile screams upside but it will come down to his ability to earn consistent snaps in a new-look offense. 

We should expect Washington to bring the pressure since his defensive scheme is rooted in disruption, which could force Levis into more catch-and-release passing over the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. Washington’s last stop as defensive coordinator was in Carolina during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. In that second year with the Panthers, his defense ranked second in the league in sacks with 53. His Bills defenses (defensive-line coach) ranked 11^th, 16^th, and fourth in sacks over the previous three seasons.  

HOW CHICAGO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Texans and Colts collide in a divisional tilt with the second-highest game total on the slate.
• All three Texans wide receivers are in an absolute dream spot – the problem isn’t figuring out if one of these guys will pop off here, it’s figuring out who will pop off. “At least one Texans wide receiver” is very much on the table on this slate.
• We expect the Texans to find offensive success here, leaving the ultimate game environment largely up to the Colts to dictate. If they can keep up, look out.
• Jonathan Taylor should have one of the highest snap rates and opportunity shares in the league this season. This spot, however, is not the best on-paper matchup.
• I expect DeMeco Ryans’ defense to deploy heavy rates of zone from nickel and dime personnel groupings, likely utilizing a linebacker or safety spy on Anthony Richardson. In conjunction, look for Ryans to scheme away Richardson’s first read, forcing him to make it through progressions to beat them.
• This should result in heavier than usual secondary contributions from the Colts’ pass catchers.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

If you were with us last season, you know the drill with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik by now. Slowik hails from the Gary Kubiak-Kyle Shanahan-Mike McDaniel coaching tree and his play designs are reminiscent of his pedigree. They are elite. That said, we continued to harp on his poor situational play-calling tendencies throughout the 2023 season. In case you missed it, Shanahan’s 49ers led the league in pre-snap motion rate (82.8%) while McDaniel’s Dolphins ranked second (75.4%) in 2023. Slowik’s Texans ranked 13^th at 53.5%. Pre-snap motion helps quarterbacks diagnose coverages and confuse opposing defenders while helping to generate communication issues that lead to broken coverages, something that is highly beneficial against the ever-increasing zone coverage rates found in the league. 

The NFL rules are clear – motion is not allowed upfield until the ball is snapped and there can only be one player in motion (without being set) at a time. These forward-leaning offensive play callers have pushed those rules to their limits, and I expect Slowik to follow suit at increasing rates moving forward. But in order to take this Texans offense to new heights, Slowik must improve upon his situational play calling, most notably his borderline asinine early-down rush rates from a season ago. For what it’s worth, both Shanahan and McDaniel also had extreme first-down rush rates, but the 49ers and Dolphins were far more efficient on those plays, averaging almost 5.6 yards per attempt (49ers) and 6.44 yards per attempt (lol, Dolphins) compared to just 3.67 for the combination of Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce in Houston. Finally, the addition of Stefon Diggs is going to make covering the pass game a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Slowik’s run-blocking scheme is far from straightforward. As in, it isn’t as simple as saying “Slowik calls this percentage of man/gap principles and this percentage of zone principles.” There is a little bit of all of that mixed in. As such, we want a running back with above-average vision and patience running behind this blocking scheme. That’s why Singletary played over Pierce last year, the latter of whom is more of a one-read, one-cut, straight-ahead running back. 

Joe Mixon has those traits. He also has robust experience running from shotgun in 11-personnel from his time in Cincinnati, something I presume he will be asked to do in Houston following the offseason addition of Diggs. Last season, the Texans ran from 11-personnel just 29.4% of the time (26^th in the league), largely tipping off opposing defenses that they intended to pass from 11. This seemingly small change in the offensive design should provide fewer early-down stacked boxes due to the threat of Diggs, Collins, and Dell from 11-personnel, and will (hopefully) help Slowik’s play calling shortcomings from a season ago. 

So yea, while most view Mixon as a kind of “meh” signing, I actually think he is just as important to where this offense wants to be as Diggs. And I am here for every second of it. Finally, I expect Mixon to be on the field as much as possible for Houston this year. After the team’s Week 7 bye in 2023, lead back Devin Singletary played 70% or more of the offensive snaps in eight of 13 games to finish the season, playoffs included. Finally, the Colts ceded a near-league-average 4.1 yards per carry in 2023 under the same coaching staff.

As was mentioned above, the addition of Diggs gives Slowik and quarterback C.J. Stroud three elite weapons at wide receiver. Furthermore, all three of Diggs, Collins, and Dell can play wide, slot, as the motion man, and run full and robust route trees. Yea, absolute nightmare fuel for opposing defensive coordinators. The Texans already ranked in the top half of the league in motion rate a year ago and now have three players capable of being the motion man before the snap. Now consider the intricate route designs, layered route trees, and elite scheme, and the ceiling is the roof for this team’s pass game. Oh yea, and Dalton Schultz is no slouch at tight end and Mixon is no slouch through the air out of the backfield. 

The Texans also have some of the lowest personnel and coaching turnover in the league from last season to 2024, meaning they likely will avoid the standard “ramp-up” time most teams contend with and should be firing on all cylinders from the jump. That’s bad news for Gus Bradley’s Cover-3-heavy Colts defense. As you should also know if you were with us last year, Cover-3 is now the preferred zone coverage alignment in a league that has seen man-coverage rates fall for six consecutive seasons – and Bradley is one of the kings of Cover-3. He utilized that primary coverage shell at a ridiculous 48.5% rate in 2023. Cover-3 is great for its malleability and ability to “cheat” additional men into the box after diagnosing a run, providing a way to simultaneously limit downfield passing and add additional defenders to stop the run.

That said, Cover-3 typically is weak over the intermediate middle of the field behind the linebackers/in front of the secondary and to the deep perimeter, two areas of the field that Stroud should have no issues picking apart here. Check out the metrics of current Texans wide receivers against Cover-3 last season (stats courtesy Fantasy Points Data Suite):

• Nico Collins – 0.73 FP/RR (third), 4.1 yards per target over expectation (seventh – Noah Brown ranked first while playing for the Texans last year), 0.164 first downs per route run (FD/RRfourth)
• Tank Dell – 0.58 FP/RR, 0.117 FD/RR
• Stefon Diggs – 0.58 FP/RR, 0.132 FD/RR

These are not normal numbers, these are ridiculous numbers. In other words, any one of these wide receivers could completely pop off in this spot. Finally, the relative weakness of the Colts’ defense is their secondary, as they have a rather stout front six (remember, high rates of Cover-3 and it’s a formation run primarily from nickel alignments, meaning five defensive backs on the field).

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• I eventually expect the Dolphins to introduce heavier rates of 11-personnel after finishing near the bottom of the league last season. That said, we might be forced to wait for that to transpire due to OBJ starting the season on the PUP list and Malik Washington being a raw rookie.
• Although we shouldn’t expect heavier 11-personnel sets initially, we should expect Jonnu Smith to be moved around the formation as a unique new element to this offense.
• I don’t know if it will come in Week 1, but Smith will eventually wreck a DFS slate.
• We also don’t know if De’Von Achane will take on a higher opportunity share in his second professional season or if he will continue as the 1B to Raheem Mostert’s 1A.
• I always get amped for Dolphins-Jaguars games because the Dolphins have the fastest offense in the league, and the Jaguars have the fastest defense.
• You’ll have game-breaking speed and abilities present whenever the Dolphins take the field.
• I expect the Jaguars to ride Travis Etienne in the clear weakest point of attack against the Dolphins defense, with short area passing a necessity through the air due to the expectation of increased pressure on Trevor Lawrence.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars finished each of the previous two seasons right around the same spot in total pass rate (59.34% and 59.40%). Head coach and offensive play caller Doug Pederson has largely been the same play caller in Jacksonville, sticking to a run-balanced approach. He has not shied away from pre-snap motion and play-action passing, nor has he failed to provide robust route trees to his receivers. All of that is designed to stress various areas of an opposing defense, putting his players in the best position to succeed before and after the reception. But there’s a twist. Press Taylor called plays for the Jaguars during the preseason, and Pederson has yet to say whether it will be him or Taylor calling the offense once games matter. Taylor called the offense for the entirety of the 2023 season after sharing duties with Pederson in 2022, but the most recent developments add significant uncertainties to that arrangement. We also know that Taylor worked with Pederson in Philadelphia from 2016 to 2020 before Pederson was fired and that Pederson immediately hired Taylor when announced as the head coach of the Jaguars. That is to say, these two operate extremely similarly as far as offensive tendencies are concerned.

I’m not yet ready to buy the speculation that Tank Bigsby has forced a heavier role in this offense based on his offseason. In the preseason, I saw more of the same indecision that handed Travis Etienne one of the most robust workloads in the league last season (15.7 carries and 4.3 targets per game). My biggest problem is an offensive line that looked atrocious in the preseason, after both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis ranked them as the 23rd unit entering the new season. The Dolphins surrendered just 3.8 yards per carry in 2023 and will likely shift to a 3-4 base front, considering the recent defensive coordinator change. That places a lot of emphasis on nose tackle Benito Jones, who has been ranked poorly by PFF in run-stopping metrics during his two-year career. It will likely be easier to run on the Dolphins than pass on them to start the season.

I would expect the pass-catching arrangements to be fairly straightforward as far as alignments and route responsibilities are concerned. Gabe Davis should operate in the clear Z-type receiver role, rookie Brian Thomas should immediately command the X-type receiver position, Christian Kirk should remain confined to the slot or Y-type role, and Evan Engram should maintain a heavy emphasis in the offense. It is also worth noting that Engram just finished the 2023 season with the 14th most targets by a tight end in NFL history. Continuing the discussion above on this offensive line, Jaguars QBs faced pressure at the second-highest rate during the preseason this year. That could spell trouble for Davis’ ability to be a consistent contributor to the offense, considering his downfield role, likely resulting in increased weekly targets for the trio of Thomas, Engram, and Kirk. As for defensive coverage tendencies from newcomer defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver for the Dolphins, I would expect something similar to what we’ve seen from the Ravens over the previous three seasons. This team has a similar assortment of elite players throughout the secondary and worked hard this offseason to address the linebackers and defensive line. That means disruption and getting after the quarterback, with a mix of Cover-1 and zone principles behind. Expect a ball-out-quick game plan against that setup.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• New Panthers head coach Dave Canales fed Rachaad White the second-most touches amongst running backs last season (336, or 20.1 opportunities per game).
• The Panthers’ 18-point team total ranks second to last on the main slate, and we know touchdowns to be heavily correlated to both quarterback and running back fantasy production.
• This game “features” two teams with poor offensive lines (CAR – 20^th, NO – 32^nd per PFF and CAR – 20^th, NO – 23^rd per Sharp Football Analysis).
• Taysom Hill is probably going to “ruin” some DFS slates this season. His preseason usage, alignments, and snap rates all tell as much. That said, he’s likely going to need multiple touchdowns to find his way onto optimal rosters on a given week, but that’s very much within his weekly range of outcomes in this offense.
• I expect the Saints to be extremely run-heavy in the red zone this season, which reinforces the previous note. Alvin Kamara has struggled in the red zone as his career has progressed, Jamaal Williams has struggled in pretty much all areas since the start of the 2023 season, and Kendre Miller landed on injured reserve to start the season.
• This game provides very few paths to eruption, restricting our interest to the primary pieces from each offense. Even then, those players don’t necessarily bring immense upside here.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers usher in a new era with the hiring of head coach Dave Canales. Canales, widely regarded as a quarterback whisperer after serving as the Seahawks’ quarterbacks coach during Geno Smith’s breakout in 2022 and the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers during Baker Mayfield’s career season in 2023, takes over for a franchise looking to overcome a dreadful rookie season from then-rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Although this will be Canales’ offense, new offensive coordinator Brad Idzik worked with Canales for each of the previous two seasons, serving as the wide receiver coach for both the Seahawks and Buccaneers in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

Other changes this offseason include the arrival of two new wide receivers in Diontae Johnson and rookie first-rounder Xavier Legette, offensive guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, rookie second-round running back Jonathon Brooks (PUP list to start the season – will miss the first four games, at minimum), and a pair of starters in the secondary. Canales’ offense last season with the Bucs ranked 18^th in pace of play (28.7 seconds per play) and 13^th in both overall pass rate (60.9%) and first-half pass rate (62.1%). Most interestingly, Canales’ offense held a 23^rd-ranked 48.0% first-down pass rate but a fourth-ranked 87.7% third-down pass rate.

What is most interesting about that split is the fact that White managed just 3.34 yards per carry on first down last season, which ranked 49^th of 56 players to see at least 50 touches on first down in 2023. Even through that atrocious efficiency, Canales continued with above-average first-down rush rates with the Bucs. The other side of that story is the absolutely immense volume Canales fed his primary back, giving White 336 total touches (second in the league at running back behind only Christian McCaffrey). 

With Brooks out the first four weeks of the regular season, the bulk of those opportunities are likeliest to fall onto former starting running back Chuba Hubbard’s shoulders to start the year. Hubbard managed middling metrics behind one of the worst offensive lines in the leagues last season, to the tune of a 3.8% explosive rush rate, 3.79 yards-per-carry mark, a ridiculous 45.8% stuffed-run rate, and 0.16 missed tackles forced per attempt. Last year with Canales, White saw 55.5% of his carries behind zone concepts and 44.1% behind man/gap concepts, effectively in line with what Hubbard saw a season ago (57.1% zone, 42.4% man/gap). 

Hubbard largely lacked success behind both concepts a season ago, with a 43.4% success rate, 4.04 yards per carry, and just one touchdown behind zone-blocking concepts and a 53.5% success rate, 351 yards, and four touchdowns behind man/gap blocking concepts. Pro Football Focus has the Panthers as the 20^th-ranked offensive line heading into 2024, with the largest improvements likely found in pass protection Hunt and Taylor Moton forming “one of the better right guard-right tackle combinations in the league.” The Saints allowed 4.4 yards per carry in 2023 under returning defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Woods has a large pass-game influence to his defensive coaching career and his defenses were nothing to write home about against the run during his time in Cleveland (2020-2022), allowing 4.7 yards per carry (25^th), 4.2 yards per carry (12^th), and 4.3 yards per carry (13^th) in that span. Hubbard is likely to be backed up, as he was in 2023, by Miles Sanders. 

Canales largely kept his cards close to the vest during the preseason, playing Young on just 12 offensive snaps. Johnson led the way amongst pass catchers, playing all 12 of the offensive snaps with Young, followed by Adam Thielen (11). The WR3 role was largely split between Jonathan Mingo and Legette. Canales utilized 11-personnel near league-average rates during the preseason at 66%, augmenting that with 31% 12-personnel mixed in. The rest of the pass-catching snaps should be split in some fashion amongst tight ends Ian Thomas (27.6% route participation rate in 2023), Tommy Tremble (40.6% route participation rate in 2023), and rookie fourth-rounder Ja’Tavion Sanders. 

One of the biggest cases for upside in Canales’ offense is a robust and layered route tree from his wide receivers, which simultaneously increases the upside for veterans Johnson and Thielen while diminishing the upside for the unproven players in Mingo and Legette, the latter two of whom have yet to demonstrate the ability to command large portions of the route tree in their respective careers. The Legette pick in this year’s draft, in particular, left me scratching my head considering he is about as raw as they come out of college. That is likely to leave his snap rates fairly low to start the season, in my opinion. Canales hinted at an offense built around Johnson early in the offseason but also said that his quarterback will be charged with making it through his progressions as defenses adapt. Young’s 63.0% first-read target rate and 19.9% off-target throw rate from his rookie year indicate there might be some growing pains in that plan to start the season.

How New ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Bo Nix era will start in Denver as the rookie looks to build on an impressive training camp and preseason. 
• Denver made some cuts of veterans who can still play a bit, as they seem intent on resetting things this year.
• After over a decade with Pete Carroll running the show, Seattle will welcome in the Mike Macdonald era. Macdonald will bring his quality, but complex, defensive scheme from the Ravens, and new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will look to spark the Seahawks offense with the same concepts that led to high-flying offense at the University of Washington.
• Denver was bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in 2023 and has an improved running back room. Sean Payton offenses have historically used their backs extensively and it won’t be surprising if Broncos backs combine for 35 opportunities in this one.
• One of the most critical matchups for this game will be the weak Seattle offensive line dealing with a Broncos defense that blitzed at the 5th highest rate in the NFL last year.

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Broncos are clearly committed to the future, with first round pick Bo Nix inserted as the starting quarterback and the releases of veterans Samaje Perine and Tim Patrick (who were quickly picked up by contenders). The Broncos have sent a clear signal about their direction. Surrounding Nix will be a supporting cast that has a lot of questions. Javonte Williams will lead the running back room with Jaleel McLaughlin likely to play a meaningful role as well. Rookie Audric Estime has generated a lot of buzz from the coaching staff and should get opportunities as the year progresses and Denver likely fades from playoff contention. The release of Patrick from the wide receiver room opens up opportunities for the younger options Denver has. Courtland Sutton is clearly the top option and Denver passed on some trade offers for him while veteran Josh Reynolds appears set to have a large role in terms of snap share as well. Second year wide receiver Marvin Mims profiled well entering the league and made some big plays as a rookie but never carved out a consistent role or production in 2023. The release of Patrick should secure a spot in 11-personnel for Mims. The Broncos will likely rotate tight ends, with Greg Dulcich likely to play most passing downs as long as he can stay healthy after an injury-riddled 2023.

Bo Nix loved the check-down in college, as he led the nation in passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Part of that can be attributed to scheme, but that is also a big reason why the Broncos took him with the 12th overall pick in April’s draft. Sean Payton’s offenses have historically targeted running backs at a very high rate and both Williams and McLaughlin are very capable receivers. We should expect those two backs to combine for double digit targets in Week 1 as Denver looks to ease Nix into things and play to his strengths and tendencies. Adding to that likelihood is the exotic blitzes that Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is likely to throw at Nix, which should necessitate check downs and hot routes to get rid of the ball quickly. Some schemed short area work for Mims would also make sense, with Sutton, Reynolds, and Dulcich likely to dominate the intermediate work, and Sutton likely to be the one on the receiving end of any deep shots they may take thanks to his contested catch ability.

The Broncos play at a relatively slow pace, ranking 28th in the NFL in seconds per snap in 2023 despite trailing in many games and struggling to an 8-9 record. This is consistent with Sean Payton’s tendencies from his New Orleans days, as the Saints ranked bottom 10 in raw pace of play in Payton’s last three seasons there. The Broncos will likely try to use most, if not all, of the play clock each snap against the Seahawks to allow Nix to evaluate what Seattle is doing and not get lit up by their exotic blitzes. Overall, Denver’s approach to this one is going to be a methodical pace of play and a heavy emphasis on the running game and short area passing. Nix showed he was capable of pushing the ball downfield a bit during the preseason, but preseason defenses are generally very “vanilla” compared to what you see in the regular season, and that dichotomy is only exaggerated by Macdonald’s scheme. Denver will try to keep this one close and win a lower scoring game.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Raiders enter the season with a new quarterback, a new(ish) head coach, and new weapons in their offensive skill personnel.
• The Chargers have new faces all over the place. They had a complete coaching staff overhaul and lost their top two wide receivers, top two running backs, and top two tight ends from 2023.
• Both of these teams have shown us signs, directly and indirectly, that they want to have a run-oriented offensive game plan.
• Justin Herbert had a foot injury in training camp but is allegedly back to full strength to start the year.
• There are elite pass rushers on both sides of the ball, making the prospect of having to come from behind daunting for either team.

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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders finished 2023 strong after jettisoning former head coach Josh McDaniels in the middle of the season. They appointed Antonio Pierce as the Interim Head Coach, and he finished the year on a positive note, with the team demonstrating clear improvement in execution and energy. That strong finish and the blessing of most of the Raiders roster led to Pierce being named the permanent head coach this offseason.

The aforementioned strong finish for the Raiders 2023 season was built on a foundation of ball control and defense. The Raiders committed to the running game and were unafraid to pound their opponents mercilessly as long as the game script allowed. They had a “statement” win over the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs on Christmas Eve in which they did not complete a single pass after the first quarter. That game is the blueprint for how Pierce and the Raiders would likely want to handle many games this season, as their QB room consists of current starter Gardner Minshew (a career journeyman) and second-year prospect Aidan O’Connell. While Minshew won the starting job during the preseason, one would think he will have a bit of a short leash. Minshew has had some success throughout his career but is also a bit of a “gunslinger” with a propensity for untimely turnovers that could quickly land him in Pierce’s doghouse as they try to win games by taking care of the ball.

Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offense in Chicago last season ranked 26th in pass rate over expectation, and one would think, based on how Pierce wants the Raiders to play, that it will look similar this season in Vegas. The big difference for Getsy will be that he has quite the cast of skilled receivers to get the ball to if/when he chooses to. Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and rookie tight end Brock Bowers make for one of the NFL’s better and most underrated trios of pass catchers. Starting running back Zamir White has never been a huge threat as a pass catcher, and the Raiders overall pass rate is likely to be low, meaning that those three (Adams, Meyers, Bowers) will likely account for a huge portion of the team’s targets. I would expect most of the Raiders passing attack to try to get the ball out quickly and let their guys make plays after the catch – something all three of them are very good at – rather than having Minshew trying to squeeze the ball in tight windows. Expect Vegas to have a conservative game plan until forced to do something different.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Commanders look to start the Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels era on a good note as they travel to Tampa Bay.
• Kliff Kingsbury returns to an NFL sideline for the first time since his “horizontal raid” offense left the Cardinals.
• The Bucs are coming off a multi-game playoff run and look to defend their NFC South title with Baker Mayfield firmly entrenched as their quarterback.
• Tampa Bay’s personnel is largely the same as 2023 but has a new offensive coordinator in Liam Coen, who came over from the Rams.
• The Washington defense projects to be one of the weaker ones in the league and Dan Quinn generally likes to be very aggressive, meaning the Bucs could be in store for some big plays.

HOW Washington WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Commanders selected Jayden Daniels with the #2 overall pick in the NFL Draft in April and he immediately became their present and future quarterback. Just over a decade ago, the Commanders selected Robert Griffin III second overall and he walked into a similar situation with a rebuilding team with a lot of holes on it. Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last season and is a polished and experienced player entering the league at 23 years old with five years of college experience under his belt. While his elevated age for a rookie can be used as a negative when evaluating him, he should also be much more ready to transition into the NFL than many other QBs who declare early. Daniels is a dynamic athlete who can throw the ball to all levels of the field and makes explosive plays with his legs, as he led the NCAA in yards per carry last year. The entire offense can and will be built around his strengths.

Third-year running back Brian Robinson appears to be hitting his stride as he enters his prime and he will be playing in the best offense with the widest running lanes of his career. He will be accompanied in the backfield by Austin Ekeler who reportedly has his “juice” back after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign. This duo should form one of the more formidable tandems in the league and both are capable in all facets of the game thanks to Robinson’s improved pass-catching chops. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the snap share breaks down as it truly wouldn’t be surprising to see either of these backs take the “lead” role. We could see a situation where the backs alternate series or one where they rotate throughout every series. However, the most likely outcome seems to be Robinson as the primary early-down running back with Ekeler playing more in hurry-up and passing down situations, while the two split work in the red zone.

The Commanders traded former first-round pick wide receiver Jahan Dotson this preseason and signed Noah Brown after he was cut from the Texans. Terry McLaurin is the clear “alpha” in this offense and some combination of Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, and Luke McCaffrey will comprise the rest of the receiving corps. McCaffrey is a rookie who failed to jump the vets during camp, a concerning sign for the long-term and making it hard to see him having a role early. The second and third receiver spots will be something to watch during Week 1 and may involve a rotation of several players and change as the season progresses. As for the tight ends, Zach Ertz is the starter and has been praised for his red zone presence in team practices during training camp. He could be a security blanket for Daniels given the receiver options on the roster. John Bates and rookie Ben Sinnott will mix in when the team is in “12” personnel (two tight end sets), which will be another data point to keep an eye on this week.

Kliff Kingsbury comes into this situation in Washington with a bit of a rough reputation from the general public and avid fantasy football players, but he may be a far better fit than people realize. Kingsbury wasn’t a great head coach, but he has been very good offensive coordinator throughout his career. Even in Arizona where he took a lot of heat (no pun intended), Kingsbury had some very good offenses when he had the personnel to make it work. Washington is still probably a year away from having the weaponry they would like to complement Daniels, but this should be a serviceable and somewhat fun unit in 2023. Kingsbury’s offenses play with good pace/tempo and run the ball at an above-average rate. Notably, the Cardinals had a successful rushing attack early in Kingsbury’s time there despite a poor offensive line, a weakness that the Commanders also have. As for play calling, the biggest complaint to Kingsbury’s scheme was the “horizontal raid” nature of it with most of the passing game being within a few yards of the line of scrimmage, along with a lack of creativity in motion and varying route concepts. 

For Week 1, there is nothing exceptional either way for the Bucs defense that should influence Washington’s play calling. They are neither elite nor poor against the run or the pass, while Kingsbury’s offenses have traditionally been the “this is who we are and how we play” type who makes defenses adjust to them rather than severely changing weekly game plans. This means that we should get a very accurate portrayal of where this offense is at this week. Something similar to the big picture concepts we saw in Arizona are likely, with a slightly elevated rate of running plays and short and intermediate focus in the passing game. Terry McLaurin will be peppered with targets, while Ertz and the running backs will likely be the other primary targets.

HOW Tampa BAy WILL TRY TO WIN::

GAME OVERVIEW::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Cowboys have had a tumultuous offseason as their stars seek contract extensions. Last week, CeeDee Lamb finally landed his big payday and returned to practice while Dak Prescott is still waiting. Both are set to play in Week 1.
• The Cowboys receiving corps behind Lamb has a lot of questions with Brandin Cooks battling a knee injury and then a slew of receivers with limited experience and pedigree.
• This will be the first game with a new defensive coordinator and scheme for the Dallas defense. They will also be without some key defenders, which could lead to some early season issues.
• The Browns will be without Nick Chubb for the first four games of the season but will have Deshaun Watson back under center for the first time since his severe shoulder injury ended his 2023 season.
• Cleveland has historically been a run-heavy offense under Kevin Stefanski and may continue that trend this year as they look to protect Watson’s shoulder and limit hits.
• This game’s projected point total is far lower than most Cowboys games from 2023, in large part due to the Browns defensive strength.

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Cowboys offense revolves primarily around two players – Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. After a 2023 season which saw them move to a pass-heavy and aggressive approach after their Week 7 bye with a great deal of success, we can assume similar splits for them this year. The concerns entering the year stem around those two primary players and their statuses with the team. Lamb “held in” for most of training camp before signing a massive contract last week. The Cowboys will have him back for Week 1, but we have seen many times where a player who misses large chunks of training camp will have a tough ramp-up period in terms of being more susceptible to injuries. This means that the Cowboys will either have to temper down their usage of Lamb or potentially be putting him at risk of injury. He led the NFL in targets last season and was also given about one rushing attempt per game. He should still be the focal point, but he may not have the target ceiling we are used to seeing for him as the Cowboys have to think about the long haul. 

The Dallas running game was mediocre last season and has had some downgrades on the offensive line while their running back room is made up of career special teamer Rico Dowdle, trusted veteran Ezekiel Elliott, and potentially recent veteran pickup Dalvin Cook. This week they face a stout Cleveland defense that will almost certainly leave Dallas with a very inefficient rushing attack that may force them to abandon ship early in the game and become the pass-happy unit we saw in 2023. If Dallas tries to force the issue on the ground, they will be leaving themselves in a lot of “2nd and 8” to “second and 12” situations. The last thing you want to do is be behind the chains against Myles Garrett and the Browns pass rush, so I would expect a very high first down pass rate for the Cowboys in this game. 

We know the Cowboys will likely be forced to throw at a high rate, the Browns have a great pass rush, and the Cowboys defense is going to be more “bend but don’t break” under Mike Zimmer than they were under the uber-aggressive Dan Quinn. The Browns also played man coverage at a top-10 rate in 2023 as they relied heavily on their Cover-1 scheme and outstanding secondary personnel. All of these factors lead to a situation where the Cowboys are unlikely to fall behind substantially and be pushed by the Browns to where they have to force the issue downfield, leading to a high rate of checkdowns and underneath targets. Obviously, Lamb will likely be the leading target for Dallas, but tight end Jake Ferguson and the running backs will likely be very involved as well. Dallas may take some shots downfield to secondary receivers Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert if Cleveland gives Lamb too much attention, but this doesn’t have the feel of a game where Dallas comes out with an aggressive vertical attack considering the strength of Cleveland’s pass rush, the expected lack of rushing success, and the lack of reps for the first team offense. To sum it all up, expect a high pass rate (especially on early downs) with the ball being spread around a bit and Dallas being more conservative than usual.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football brings us the Rams visiting the Lions for a game with a whopping 52.5 total (highest of the week by a comfortable margin) with Detroit favored by 4.5. Of note here is that Fanduel has decided to include this game on their main slate, and as of now, they do not have any large single-game contests for this one. Boo, I say. Boo (update: FD did add single game contests). I thought this spread looked close at first glance until I realized that the Rams scored 23.7 points per game last year while both teams were below average in points allowed per game to opponents…this one looks like a barn-burner. 

Detroit

The Lions are bringing back the same two-headed backfield that they used to great success last year with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery splitting the work. While sometimes frustrating for DFS purposes as the split capped their volume, this offense was productive enough that both were successful throughout the season, largely on the back of 24 combined touchdowns between the two of them. The question is whether this will recur again. Montgomery was historically kept around the 15-ish carry mark in most games and averaged just about 1.5 targets per game, so he’s heavily reliant on some kind of breakaway run and/or touchdowns in order to pay off. It’s hard to find a big ceiling on 15 carries and 1 target unless you get into the end zone at least once, and even then it’s no guarantee he would be in the optimal (call it like 13-15 DK points for a 15 carry, 1 target, 1 touchdown scenario). At $6,600, he’s priced for a timeshare, but I’m concerned about his ability to win us tournaments even if things go his way – it feels like he needs a multi-touchdown game to really break the slate open. Gibbs is more expensive at $8,400 but his big play ability (5.2 YPC vs. 4.6 for Monty) and especially his passing game role in DK’s PPR format give him access to a higher ceiling. I’m likely going to end up overweight on Gibbs and underweight on Monty. 

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The Lions passing game is largely the same as last year. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the alpha wide receiver with Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond (previously on the team but behind Josh Reynolds, who is now departed) rounding out the primary WR trio. Backing them up are…well, Isaiah Williams according to their depth chart, with nobody else on the active roster, but I expect they’ll call someone up from the practice squad to serve as their WR5. St. Brown is the clear big dog here with a whopping 30.2% target share (5th in the NFL last year) – it’s basically impossible to say anything negative about him except that he’s the highest priced player on the slate at $11,000 (and the only player over $10k). Williams has had a slow start to his career but has drawn rave reviews in training camp. At $5,400, I feel like it’s a spot to bet on talent and be overweight on a player who is probably going to be more expensive in a few weeks. Raymond’s kind of just a guy – he’s a capable NFL receiver but doesn’t really stand out. He should be on the field plenty but he’s going to be behind the other wide receivers, Sam LaPorta, and Gibbs in the target tree. He’s a punt play. 

At tight end, we have the aforementioned LaPorta, who broke the “rookie tight ends struggle to adjust to the NFL” stereotype last year with 1,065 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He brings a strong combination of floor and ceiling to the table at $7,400, and I would go so far as to say I am tempted to force at least 1 of St. Brown and LaPorta in every roster I build for this game (I may include Gibbs in that and have it be a “between 1 and 2” rule). 

Los Angeles

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 closes out with the Jets visiting the 49ers. Really? We had three awesome island game options and then . . . the Jets facing a team that made it to the Super Bowl last year. Yeah, I get that Aaron Rodgers is back, but yeesh. Alright. Moving on. This game has a mediocre 43.5 point total with SF favored by 4.5, so it’s not projected to be a super exciting game, but for Showdown, we don’t care about that, we just care about if we can figure out how to attack it in a +EV way. 

San Francisco

The 49ers run game starts, of course, with Christian McCaffrey. CMC is the best running back in the league and has an incredibly strong role – he led all RBs in points-per-game scoring last year and it wasn’t even close (26.5 points per game is legitimately insane, with Kyren 2nd at 21.8 points per game, almost a five point gap!). He’s an incredibly expensive $11.6k, but this is actually shockingly cheaper (!) than his average Showdown salary last year. He’s going to be extremely popular. He’s a fantastic on-paper play even in a really tough matchup. He’s a pretty key decision point on the slate, and one that I can’t really make for you – just decide if you’re comfortable with the “great on paper play at high ownership” position or “fade the best play on the slate and just accept it if he burns you” position. The only real downside to CMC is that in noncompetitive games he has to “get his” on the way up because the 49ers have historically managed his workload in games in which they’re leading handily. Now, if the game is a blowout there’s still a strong chance CMC was part of making it a blowout, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least point out that potential path to failure. Behind CMC is Jordan Mason, whose role is likely to be minimal as long as the game is competitive, but who could see some extra 4th-quarter touches if the Jets can’t keep up. Because of this dynamic, I wouldn’t play CMC and Mason together except on 5-1 49ers onslaught builds, and I probably wouldn’t play Mason unless he was paired with at least two other 49ers (and maybe even three – the idea here is you want to play Mason in “49ers win easily” rosters, because those are the ones in which he’s likeliest to see a healthy workload). 

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The 49ers receiving corps has Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle all ready to go, with WR3 Juaun Jennings listed as questionable. Jennings’ status doesn’t really make a big difference to the main guys . . . but the main guys, ugh. I hate the 49ers for Showdowns because it’s so difficult to predict where the passing game production is going to come from. One thing worth noting is the matchup for San Francisco is much easier on the ground, but this is an elite offense that can score from anywhere on the field, so I don’t want to shy away from the pass catching options. Aiyuk is the favorite to lead the pass catchers in targets, while Deebo generally supplements his receiving work with a bit of run game activity (averaged roughly three carries per game last year and had five touchdowns), while Kittle’s big games tend to come out of nowhere (at least when everyone’s healthy) as he is often used as a blocker. Given how good the Jets D is, I expect a lot of Kittle blocking in this one, which lowers my level of interest in rostering him. Aiyuk and Deebo I’ll probably just split with a slight preference towards Deebo as he can also score on the ground, where as noted previously the Jets are more vulnerable. The 49ers depth pieces include such NFL luminaries as Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, and Jake Tonges – you can use them as punts, I suppose, in MME, and if Jennings is out I think Bell is his most likely direct backup, which would put him firmly in play as a value option at $200 (though with a questionable ceiling). 

New York