Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Vikings will enter the post-Kirk Cousins era in 2024 with Sam Darnold under center and seeking a career resurgence.
- Daniel Jones returns from last season’s torn ACL and will start the year as the QB1 for the Giants while looking over his shoulder at Drew Lock, who could replace him at some point if things don’t go well.
- Minnesota will likely run the ball at a higher rate than we have seen in past seasons due to its QB situation and the improved strength of their offensive line.
- New York will likely have a more concentrated offensive attack than we are used to seeing from them as Brian Daboll looks to utilize his new toys.
- Turnovers will be the name of the game as Darnold and Jones play a game of “chicken” to see who can keep it together the longest.
How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is a terrific offensive mind and is great at putting his players in position to succeed. His task this year will be the biggest he has had in Minnesota as he tries to revitalize the career of Darnold and does so without TJ Hockenson for at least a few weeks and with Jordan Addison’s injury and legal status in limbo. As Greg Brainos at Coachspeak Index pointed out to us this summer, the Vikings re-signed fullback C.J. Ham to an extension last offseason and have been talking him up all summer. This is relevant because he will likely be a critical piece to their running game and this team is likely to be far more run-oriented than recent years, when they ranked near the top of the league in PROE (pass rate over expectation).
The Giants’ defense ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in 2023 in both run defense DVOA and yards per carry allowed. They have a new defensive coordinator in Shane Bowen, who was previously with the Titans. The Giants were second in the league in blitz rate last season under former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, while Bowen’s Titans ranked near the bottom of the league in blitz rate throughout his tenure. Tennessee’s defense usually operated as a bit of a “pass funnel” due to their strength against the run and leaky back end. Considering the Giants’ struggles against the run last season, we should expect them to have a focus on shoring up that area, and they will likely be especially focused on that as they try to force Darnold to beat them.
The basic idea for the Vikings will likely be to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and the running backs. Playing without Hockenson, who led all tight ends in targets per game, should narrow the target tree a bit for Minnesota, as his replacements are nowhere near his ability as a receiver. Offseason signing Aaron Jones will lead the running-back room but will be complemented extensively by Ty Chandler as the Vikings try to keep Jones fresh and healthy deep into the season. Both backs are relatively explosive and are capable pass catchers, so it seems likely that they will combine for close to 30 touches in this game as the Vikings lean on the running game and look for ways to replicate Hockenson’s short-area production. Addison and Jalen Nailor will be the other two primary receivers and could have some opportunities for deep targets if the Giants sell out to stop Jefferson. It will just be a matter of whether or not O’Connell lets Darnold take those types of shots.
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