Ravens (

21.75) at
Chiefs (

24.25)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Welcome, friends, to the 2024 NFL season! It kicks off with the Ravens visiting the Chiefs for a 46.5 total game in which the defending champs are favored by 2.5. This is a weird matchup in that we tend to think of these teams as both being high-powered offenses, but last year they ranked 1st and 2nd in fewest opponent points allowed per game, while Baltimore was 4th in offensive points scored and the Chiefs were middle of the pack at 14th. My sense is that the Chiefs offense underperformed last year. Patrick Mahomes had the lowest touchdown rate of his career, something that should see some positive regression (especially because his receiving corps looks a lot better this year than it did last year). We’re also dealing with two teams that have historically been very difficult to pick apart for Showdown because they both run deep skill position player groups and it can be tough to figure out where the ball is likeliest to go. Let’s dig in and see if we can figure out how to attack this one. 

Week 1 Reminder

First, a caveat I talk about every year: we know very little in Week 1. Oh, we have some ideas. We generally know who the starters are. But our level of confidence in what we think we know should be low, because every year we’re surprised by how teams play. Some teams just play much better or worse than expected, some teams use players in ways that are different from what any analyst expected, some guys we thought would have full-time roles do not, etc. The point is, in tournaments, embrace the variance. Recognize that the field (and the DFS analyst community, including yours truly) could be very wrong about things, and if you have a strong lean on something, go for it. 

Baltimore

On the Ravens side, the backfield is made up of new acquisition Derrick Henry, backed up by old familiar face Justice Hill. Past those two guys, Rasheen Ali is in the concussion protocol. I’d expect the Ravens not to take any risk with him (he’s the RB3 who is likely to barely see the field, after all) and to sign or elevate someone, but really this is going to be about Henry and Hill. Henry is someone we’re going to have to start viewing very differently for DFS purposes compared to his time on the Titans. With Tennessee, we often saw him with enormous volume (25+ carry games were not uncommon), while Baltimore has very rarely allowed a running back to touch the ball even 20 times in a game. But, he’s also likely to see more trips to the red zone on a much better offense. The likelihood of big yardage games goes down, but the touchdown equity goes up. At his price, I’m not especially enthusiastic as a road underdog running back with an unlikely path to big volume, but the RB1 on this offense carries ceiling due to how the Ravens score on the ground, and he’s also one of the clearest leverage points on Lamar Jackson, who will be extremely highly owned, so I don’t think he’s a complete stay away for me. I will probably aim to be overweight on him at captain and roughly equal or slightly under in flex. Hill is someone I’m not likely to be on much as he only had three games of double-digit DK points last season (what you’d need for him at his $4,400 salary) and one of them took two touchdowns (with just nine rushing yards). 

In the air, we’ll see the Ravens trot out a receiving corps of Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, and Rashod Bateman at wide receiver with Mark Andrews at tight end. Flowers and Andrews are the key guys here. Flowers had a healthy 24.4% target share last season while Andrews was at 22.2% (though as you’d expect from a big tight end, Andrews dominated the red zone targets with a 37.7% share). Past those two guys, things really spread out for the Ravens. Bateman was next with just a 12.4% share of targets. Baltimore was also tied for last place in pass attempts per game last year with just 29.1, so we have a low volume passing offense that is concentrated in its top two guys but then spread out beyond that. When price is factored in, Andrews is the top play here for me – he’s just $6,400, and he was more expensive than that in every single game last season (in fact his cheapest regular season Showdown salary was $8,000). Overall, the pricing looks a bit soft in this game, but it’s especially so on Andrews. Flowers is, of course, a reasonable play as well but the old “don’t play wide receivers against the Chiefs” narrative still held true last year as they were consistently strong against the position, and Andrews just seems like a stronger play for a lower salary. As will almost always be the case this season, every other pass catcher on Baltimore is something of a dart throw. We can’t reasonably project more than three or four targets at most for anyone else so it’s going to come down to if anyone finds the end zone. Of the starters, I do have a modest lean towards Agholor over Bateman as I think they’re fairly similar but Agholor is a lot cheaper. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

One guy I’m interested in as a punt play is Isaiah Likely, who is of course the direct backup to Mark Andrews. Andrews is listed questionable as I write this (on Saturday). He’s expected to play, but he was in a car accident just a couple of weeks ago so maybe Baltimore takes it a bit easy on him in Week 1? Or maybe, they just realize that Likely is a highly talented pass catcher and it’s silly to bury him on the bench when the NFL rules do, in fact, allow you to have two tight ends on the field at the same time. Early in the season when this stuff is totally unknown is an interesting spot to bet on talent, and Likely has tons of talent. At $2,600, he’s the right price for a “he just needs a touchdown” punt play, and I think we won’t see a lot of ownership here with Andrews active and Likely not down at the sub-$1k price level. We’ll probably also see a bit of guys like Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker, and Deonte Harty rotating in for a few snaps and they can be used as punt options. I’d prefer Wallace of them but they are all, of course, very thin.