Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- This game features two teams that are 30th and 31st in situation-neutral pass rate.
- Matchup and injury could force these teams away from how they choose to attack offensively.
- This is a game with big playoff implications for both teams as they could end up vying for one of the last wildcard spots based on current records and future outlook.
- The injury statuses of Alvin Kamara and Dallas Goedert will have a huge impact on the fantasy potential of this game.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
New Orleans is 30th in situation-neutral run rate and plays at the 29th fastest pace (seconds per snap) in the league. The strength of this team is their defense and coaching, which is how they try to win games. The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games, and those losses have been a pair of two-point losses that came down to the wire and an overtime loss. They focus on playing fundamental football, trying to force their opponent into mistakes, and hoping to pull-out close games late.
This week the Saints travel to face an Eagles team with a middling defense by most metrics, but one that has performed very well against non-elite offenses. Team splits by opponents:
- ATL, SF, CAR, DET, DEN: 12 points per game
- DAL, KC, TB, LV, LAC: 34.2 points per game
What this tells us is that Philadelphia’s defense is a problem for weaker offenses but lacks the personnel to keep up with more explosive teams. The Saints are trotting out former third-string QB Trevor Siemian and, outside of Alvin Kamara, the Saints have possibly the worst skill position group in the league. This leads us down a path of realizing they fit much more closely with the first group of teams listed above than the high-powered second group. While Siemian has looked decent the last two weeks in bringing his team back from late deficits to make games close, he is not at the point where Sean Payton will put the game in his hands voluntarily. If Alvin Kamara plays, the Saints will lean on him and Mark Ingram because they will recognize that is the strongest area on their offense. If Kamara is unable to play, they will still likely lean heavily towards the run as their complete lack of explosive skill players will make them want to slow this game down and hope things break right late.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
Philadelphia has turned from the 10th highest situation-neutral pass rate through Week 6 to, by far, the most run-heavy team in the league over the last four weeks. The Eagles have run the ball at a 68% rate over a three-week period, but those games have come against the 32nd, 23rd, and 29th ranked teams in rush defense DVOA. This week will be an interesting litmus test for the Eagles as they host the Saints’ #1 ranked run defense. Since their Week 6 bye, the Saints have held opponents to only 65 rushing yards per game. While they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of rushing offenses, those numbers are truly elite and show how consistently stout this defensive front is. Christian McCaffery’s 72 rushing yards in Week 2 is the most an individual player has managed, and the only game all season that a team has managed 100 rushing yards was Week 5 against Washington, and that was primarily due to Taylor Heinicke rushing for 40 yards on scrambles.
Heinicke’s success on the ground may point to what the Eagles have to rely on here in order to move the football consistently. Jalen Hurts is able to run the ball successfully on designed runs or scrambles, and while he hasn’t needed to run much over the last three weeks, this is a spot where he will likely have to take off fairly often. The Saints have not played a true rushing QB yet this year, and the new dynamic may shake things up a bit for them. Dallas Goedert was knocked out of Week 10 with a concussion, and his potential absence would make things difficult for the passing game as well, with Marshon Lattimore likely able to lock into Devonta Smith. The Eagles are most successful as a team when they are able to run the ball effectively and with volume, but that is going to be a tough task this week. Jalen Hurts, or the Eagles defense is going to have to win this game for them.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Both teams are likely to struggle to move the football and will play conservatively in the hopes that the opponent blinks first by making some mistakes. Each team has one dynamic weapon that would have a chance to break things open in Kamara and Hurts, assuming Kamara is healthy. However, the lack of other viable threats for each team will allow the talented and well-coached defenses to key on those players and keep the chances low of a high-paced, high-scoring game breaking out.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- Jalen Hurts’ first win and Taysom Hill’s first loss came in NOR @ PHI in 2020
- Miles Sanders & Jalen Hurts both broke a 3-season long streak of NOR not allowing a 100-yd rusher, with 82 of Sanders 115 yds coming on one breakaway TD
- No PHI player finished with more than 50 rec yds in that game
- Devonta Smith has 60+ rec yds in 6 games already (71, 122, 77, 61, 116, 66)
- NOR has allowed 15 QB TDs to 11 INTs on 36 pass att/g
- Hurts has scored 18 TDs to 5 INT on 29.6 pass att/g
- QB rushing vs NOR: Mac (28) // Dimes (27) // Heinicke (40) // Ryan (TD) // Tanny (TD)
- Hurts rushed for 106 yds vs NOR in 2020
- Hurts rushing in 2021: 62 // 82:1 // 35 // 47 // 30:2 // 44:2 // 61 // 71 // 62 // 53
- Total QB yds allowed by NOR: 201 // 312 // 298 // 429 // 288 // 179 // 377 // 354 // 214
- Watkins hasn’t produced more than 48 yds since W2, though drops are holding him back from some huge plays
- NOR has allowed the 3rd highest rate of explosive pass plays to WRs
- Smith has 15+ DK pts in 5/10 games: 19.1 // 22.2 // 15.7 // 25.6 // 22.6
- Smith has sub-6 DK pts in 4 of the other 5 games: 3.6 // 5.8 // 5.1 // 2.5
- 10 WRs have 70+ yds vs NOR this season
- NOR has allowed 10 WR TDs, with 5 of them from TB/ATL
- #1 WRs vs NOR: Adams (5:56) // Moore (8:79:1) // Meyers (9:94) // Golladay (6:116) // McLaurin (4:46) // Metcalf (2:96:1) // Evans (2:48:1) // AJ Brown (1:16)
- Targets without Ertz: 5 // 7 // 6 // 2
- Yards without Ertz: 70 // 72 // 43 // 28
- NOR has allowed the 4th lowest success rate to TEs
- No TE has scored 10+ DK pts vs NOR in 2021
- Pruitt’s TD last week was the first TE TD allowed by NOR
- Rush att leader for PHI by week: Sanders (15, 13, 2, 7, 11, 9, 6) // Gainwell (13) // Howard (17, 12)
- Lead RB rushing vs NOR: Jones (5:9) // CMC (24:72:1) // Harris (6:14) // Saquon (13:52:1) // Gibson (20:60:2) // Collins (16:35) // Fournette (8:26) // Davis (9:13) // Foreman (11:30)
- RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6)
- That’s 14 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 62 games, and just 6 of 25+
- 13/14 scored a TD /// 6/14 scored 2 TDs /// 10/14 had 5+ rec /// 13/14 had 6+ DK rec pts
- Of the four without 5 rec, one had 82 yd TD, one caught a deep WR pass TD, one had 28 rush att, and all four scored 2 TDs
- CPatt had 21.6 of his 22.6 DK pts come through the air in W9, and before his 64 yd rec on the final comeback drive, he had 12.2 total DK pts
- 2021: CMC, Saquon, CPatt combined for 16 rec, 51.5 DK rec pts vs NOR
- 2021: CMC, Saquon, & Gibson combined for 5 TDs vs NOR
- Sanders & Gainwell each have just one game of 5+ rec (Sanders: 5:6 // Gainwell: 6:58)
- Sanders has yet to score this year
- Sanders has one game of more than 10.1 DK pts this year (17.3 vs ATL)
- Each RB’s season-high in DK pts: Sanders (17.3) // Gainwell (20.9) // Scott (18) // Howard (17.7)
- Siemian has 249:2 & 298:2 on 37.5 pass att/g in his two starts, with a lot of production coming in comeback mode in the 4th
- Herbert & Carr are the only QBs to pass for 300+ yds vs PHI, and Mahomes & Brady are the only others to pass for 250+ yds
- PHI is facing just 34.1 pass att/g (11th lowest)
- Taysom passing in starts: 233:0 // 78:0:1 // 232:2 // 291:2:1
- Taysom rushing in starts: 10:49:2 // 10:44:2 // 14:83 // 5:33
- Michael Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders received 54 of his 114 passes in those games
- QB rushing vs PHI: Jimmy (20:1) // Mahomes (26) // Herbert (14:1)
- Even with TDs in both of Siemian’s starts, Callaway hasn’t topped 12 DK pts as he’s only produced 62 yds in those games
- Tre’Quan since returning: 1:11 // 3:33:1 // 3:53 // 4:44:1
- Deonte Harris has been the most productive NOR WR, with five games of 50+ rec yds (72, 52, 72, 52, 84)
- PHI has allowed the 3rd fewest WR DK pts/g (29) and the 2nd fewest WR rec yds
- Callaway is the only NOR WR with 20+ DK pts this season, and it required a Hail Mary TD
- Kamara’s total touches: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 23 // 20 // –
- Ingram back in NOR: (6 att, 2 tg) // (9, 5) // (14, 7)
- The CAR blowout loss is the only game in which Kamara has fewer touches than the two games with Ingram
- RBs with 15+ touches vs PHI (total yds:TDs): Davis (72) // Mitchell (53) // Zeke (116:2) // CEH (114:1) // Chuba (134) // Fournette (127:2) // Drake (79:1) // Swift (51) // Ekeler (82)
- 13 RBs have 40+ rush yds vs PHI, 7 RBs have 60+ rush yds
- PHI has allowed the 4th highest success rate on RB targets
- RB rec in Siemian starts: AK (4:54, –) // Ingram (5:21, 4:61)
- AK vs PHI in 2020: 11:50:1, 7:44
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