Bengals (

26.25) at
Raiders (

24.25)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• If there is a game that has a chance to be overlooked on this slate, this is probably the one.
• These teams both have below average pass defenses and above average pass rates recently.
• Cincinnati plays slow, but their elite pass rate recently has covered that up for their game environments.
• As weather starts to become a factor, this is one of only two games on the main slate being played indoors — with only one game being played in warm weather.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

It has been talked about extensively over the last few weeks, but it is worth mentioning again: the Bengals ran the ball at a very high rate early in the year in an effort to protect Joe Burrow in his return from an ACL tear and over the past few weeks have become extremely pass-heavy. Cincinnati is coming off their bye week, which was preceded by an embarrassing home loss to the Browns and an ugly loss to the bottom-feeding Jets — the bye couldn’t have come at any better of a time. What better recipe to get back on track than a matchup with a Raiders team that is falling apart on and off the field right now?

Las Vegas’ defense is middling against both the pass and the run. It is hard to explain, but looking back at the Raiders’ last few games, it feels like their defense is about as average as it gets and just lets the opposing offense “be who they are.” Here is what I mean by that:

• The Chiefs were dominant with an explosive passing offense.
• The Giants failed to put up many yards or threaten for explosive plays but found a way to do just enough to win a low-scoring game.
• The Eagles were solid when they could stay balanced but struggled when forced into a pass-heavy game script.
• The Broncos were overly conservative until it was too late and then got a large amount of production in the passing game when they opened things up.
• The Bears were extremely conservative and played at a slow pace, controlling the ball and relying on their defense to win the game.

Those could all just as easily be general statements about those teams as descriptions of their games against the Raiders. The question then becomes, “if the Raiders let teams ‘be who they are, then who are the Bengals?” 

The Bengals are a team that is playing more aggressively with each passing week and is blessed with a blossoming young star quarterback, a trio of playmaking wide receivers, and an underrated all-purpose running back. I would expect the Bengals to come out of their bye very aggressively and play sharp, unlike some veteran teams who have struggled out of their bye recently (Seahawks, Bucs, Raiders, Vikings). If the Bengals are aggressive and attack the intermediate areas with Tee Higgins and downfield with Ja’Marr Chase, they should move the ball with efficiency on chunk plays.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas has struggled to run the ball all season and will likely face the same difficulties here against a top-10 Bengals rush defense (by DVOA and PFF). The Raiders are getting no push from their 31st graded offensive line, and the loss of Henry Ruggs has only created more traffic in the box for their backs to deal with. Cincinnati has been far more susceptible to the pass this year, making a high volume, short-area passing attack seem to make sense given the Raiders’ personnel.

Las Vegas has scored 26 or more points in all five of their victories this year while scoring 16 points or less in all four of their losses. Perhaps no team is more reliant on their offense to win games for them, yet also, their offense has proved almost incapable of bringing them back in games. All of the Raiders’ wins have been played from ahead or at least kept within one score at all times. This makes sense from a broader perspective, as the Raiders are lacking in talent at the skill positions, so they rely on creative play calling and catching defenses off guard to have high-end offensive outputs. In games where the Raiders fall behind and become predictable, defenses can take away what they are trying to do and tee off on them. The Raiders are much better off in this spot if they attack through the air early, when it is less predictable, in an attempt to build a lead than they would be by playing it safe and then having to turn to the pass if/when they fall behind.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likely game flow here involves both teams turning pass-heavy either by design (Bengals) or out of necessity (Raiders). As you can say with any game with heavy pass volume, the results that will follow are highly variable. The Bengals are highly likely to have success because of the talent and scheme they are bringing in, while the Raiders are not the same team they started the year as but should be able to move the ball with some regularity through the air. The Bengals play at the 31st situation-neutral pace, but their ability to attack through the air at all levels of the field and also use a playmaker out of the backfield should suppress any worries that may cause about the game’s outlook. The only other cause for concern from my perspective is the Raiders’ #1 graded pass rush by PFF against a below-average Bengals offensive line.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::