Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- If there is a game that has a chance to be overlooked on this slate, this is probably the one.
- These teams both have below average pass defenses and above average pass rates recently.
- Cincinnati plays slow, but their elite pass rate recently has covered that up for their game environments.
- As weather starts to become a factor, this is one of only two games on the main slate being played indoors — with only one game being played in warm weather.
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
It has been talked about extensively over the last few weeks, but it is worth mentioning again: the Bengals ran the ball at a very high rate early in the year in an effort to protect Joe Burrow in his return from an ACL tear and over the past few weeks have become extremely pass-heavy. Cincinnati is coming off their bye week, which was preceded by an embarrassing home loss to the Browns and an ugly loss to the bottom-feeding Jets — the bye couldn’t have come at any better of a time. What better recipe to get back on track than a matchup with a Raiders team that is falling apart on and off the field right now?
Las Vegas’ defense is middling against both the pass and the run. It is hard to explain, but looking back at the Raiders’ last few games, it feels like their defense is about as average as it gets and just lets the opposing offense “be who they are.” Here is what I mean by that:
- The Chiefs were dominant with an explosive passing offense.
- The Giants failed to put up many yards or threaten for explosive plays but found a way to do just enough to win a low-scoring game.
- The Eagles were solid when they could stay balanced but struggled when forced into a pass-heavy game script.
- The Broncos were overly conservative until it was too late and then got a large amount of production in the passing game when they opened things up.
- The Bears were extremely conservative and played at a slow pace, controlling the ball and relying on their defense to win the game.
Those could all just as easily be general statements about those teams as descriptions of their games against the Raiders. The question then becomes, “if the Raiders let teams ‘be who they are, then who are the Bengals?”
The Bengals are a team that is playing more aggressively with each passing week and is blessed with a blossoming young star quarterback, a trio of playmaking wide receivers, and an underrated all-purpose running back. I would expect the Bengals to come out of their bye very aggressively and play sharp, unlike some veteran teams who have struggled out of their bye recently (Seahawks, Bucs, Raiders, Vikings). If the Bengals are aggressive and attack the intermediate areas with Tee Higgins and downfield with Ja’Marr Chase, they should move the ball with efficiency on chunk plays.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
Las Vegas has struggled to run the ball all season and will likely face the same difficulties here against a top-10 Bengals rush defense (by DVOA and PFF). The Raiders are getting no push from their 31st graded offensive line, and the loss of Henry Ruggs has only created more traffic in the box for their backs to deal with. Cincinnati has been far more susceptible to the pass this year, making a high volume, short-area passing attack seem to make sense given the Raiders’ personnel.
Las Vegas has scored 26 or more points in all five of their victories this year while scoring 16 points or less in all four of their losses. Perhaps no team is more reliant on their offense to win games for them, yet also, their offense has proved almost incapable of bringing them back in games. All of the Raiders’ wins have been played from ahead or at least kept within one score at all times. This makes sense from a broader perspective, as the Raiders are lacking in talent at the skill positions, so they rely on creative play calling and catching defenses off guard to have high-end offensive outputs. In games where the Raiders fall behind and become predictable, defenses can take away what they are trying to do and tee off on them. The Raiders are much better off in this spot if they attack through the air early, when it is less predictable, in an attempt to build a lead than they would be by playing it safe and then having to turn to the pass if/when they fall behind.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
The likely game flow here involves both teams turning pass-heavy either by design (Bengals) or out of necessity (Raiders). As you can say with any game with heavy pass volume, the results that will follow are highly variable. The Bengals are highly likely to have success because of the talent and scheme they are bringing in, while the Raiders are not the same team they started the year as but should be able to move the ball with some regularity through the air. The Bengals play at the 31st situation-neutral pace, but their ability to attack through the air at all levels of the field and also use a playmaker out of the backfield should suppress any worries that may cause about the game’s outlook. The only other cause for concern from my perspective is the Raiders’ #1 graded pass rush by PFF against a below-average Bengals offensive line.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Dwprix >>
- Fourth highest total (49.5) with CIN favored by 1
- Line has moved 3.5 points towards LV
- CIN is coming off a blowout loss in Week 9 (16-41) vs CLE & had their bye Week 10
- Zach Taylor is 0-2 coming off CINs bye week
- CIN was 5-2 but have lost their last two to drop to 5-4
- CIN had scored 30+ pts in the three straight before Week 9s 16 pts vs CLE
- LV has scored 30+ in four of nine but hasn’t topped 16 the past two weeks
- CIN ranks ninth in pts/g (26.2) // JAX allows the sixth most pts/g (25.8)
- JAX scores the second fewest pts/g (16.6) // CIN allows the sixth fewest pts/g (22.6)
- First game with no TDs came last week
- Had previously scored 20+ DK pts in five straight
- DK pts: 9.4 // 21.3 // 30.6 // 23.8 // 20.3 // 25.3 // 18.6 // 13.3 // 18.6
- $6.6k is the cheapest he’s been since Week 7
- Burrow has scored 20+ DK pts in nine of 19 career games & 30 plus twice
- LV allows 20.4 DK pts/g to QBs, 12th most
- Tgt Share last three: Ja’Marr Chase-29% // Tee Higgins-26% // Tyler Boyd-17
- RZ tgts: Chase-10 // Higgins-10 // Boyd-6
- Chase had zero 10 tgt games Weeks 1-4 // He has three since
- His price has came down to $7.2k after a season high $7.6k in Week 9
- This makes him the eighth most expensive WR this week
- Higgins has yet to top 20+ DK pts this season & only has two TDs which came in the first two weeks of the season
- His price ($5.4k) is tied for the most expensive it’s been all season
- Boyd’s price ($4.8k) is just $100 more than his season low of $4.7k
- He’s only topped 20 DK pts once this season in Week 4 on an 11 tgt game
- LV allows 31.4 DK pts to WRs, sixth most
- 10% tgt share on the season
- Five TDs w/ four coming in two games
- Two 20+ DK pt games (24.1 Week 7, 26.5 Week 4)
- Just three RZ tgts on the season
- Price of $3.5k is in the middle of his season long range ($3k-$3.9k)
- LV allows the second most DK pts/g to TEs (18.5)
- Most expensive he’s been all season after his price went up $400 from last week
- Mixon hasn’t broke 100 rush yds since Week 1 when he got 29 atts
- 62% rush share over last three (only got 50% in blowout win over Ravens)
- Nine total TDs (seven rush, two rec)
- Four of nine games w/ 25+ DK pts (three in last four)
- Every game Mixon has scored 25+ he’s gotten at least four tgts
- DK pts:tgts: 28:5 // 25:5 // 11:0 // 26:6 // 10:1 // 13:2 // 10:1 // 8:2 // 28:4
- LV allows the ninth most DK pts/g to RBs (27.0)
- Carr’s season high price ($6k) came in Weeks 1 & 7
- He’s been $5.9k the past three weeks
- Carr hasn’t topped 20 DK pts since their bye in Week 9
- DK pts: 19.2 // 13.3 // BYE // 23.0 // 24.5 // 8.2 // 15.4 // 25.2 // 27.2 // 28.0
- DK pts in games LV scores 30+: 23.0 // 24.5 // 25.2 // 27.2 // 28.0
- LV averages 38.6 pass atts/g, eighth most
- They pass on 64.9% of plays, sixth most
- CIN allows 20.0 DK pts/g to QBs, 16th
- Tgt share since Henry Ruggs release: Hunter Renfrow-23% // Bryan Edwards-10% // Zay Jones-9%
- Renfrow has tied his season high in tgts each of the last three weeks: 7 // 7 // Bye // 7 // 3 // 6 // 6 // 5 // 5 // 6
- $5.8k is the most Renfrow has been all season
- His previous season high was last week ($5.4k)
- Renfrow has only one game w/ less than 10 DK pts but none over 20
- LV RZ tgts: Renfrow-14 // Edwards-9 // Jones-2
- CIN allows 37.0 DK pts/g to WRs, 15th most
- Waller leads team in tgt share (21%) even with missing one game
- He has only two games with 10+ tgts
- Tgts: 7 // 11 // Bye // DNP // 5 // 8 // 7 // 7 // 7 // 19
- Second in team RZ tgts (13)
- Price ($6.1k) has came down from a season high $7.6k Week 2
- CIN allows 10.4 DK pts to TEs, 10th least
- Josh Jacobs (Questionable) atts: 7 // 13 // Bye // 6 // 16 // 15 // 13 // DNP // DNP // 10
- Tgts: 5 // 4 // Bye // 3 // 1 // 5 // 5 // DNP // DNP // 2
- Jacobs has yet to top 20 DK pts
- His price ($6k) has been in the $5.7k-$6.2 range this season
- Kenyan Drake has seen 8 atts with Jacobs back the last two weeks
- He did have eight tgts two weeks ago in a 23-16 loss to NYG
- CIN allows 29.3 DK pts/g to RBs, fourth most