Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
20.5) at

Bears (
19.5)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
23rd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
15th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
22nd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
19th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game is likely to play out at a slow pace
  • Lamar Jackson has the highest raw ceiling on the slate
  • David Montgomery saw 85% of the snaps in his last game and is mispriced for his role
  • The Ravens WRs have an excellent matchup

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 6-3 Ravens are coming off a “mini bye” after a disappointing loss to a Dolphins team they were expected to beat since they were starting a backup QB (Personal side complaint: if Tua Tagovailoa was healthy enough to play, which he clearly was, why didn’t he start the game? Why do teams do that?). Against a mix of Jacoby Brissett and Tua, the Ravens allowed over 300 yards passing, and it was done without (arguably) their best skill position player (Mike Gesicki) catching a pass, and Devante Parker missing the game. The Ravens are a pathetic Steelers tie against the Lions away from having given up control of the AFC North. Jim Harbaugh is one of the better coaches in the NFL, and will have his team ready to play after such a disappointing showing. With ten days to prepare for the Bears, expect a strong game from the Ravens.

The disappointing Bears defense is below average against the pass and run (19th in DVOA/21st in DVOA), which doesn’t present a clear path of least resistance. The Ravens should be fine with that, as they tend to run “their offense” more than adapt for an opponent. The Ravens experience success because their offense is unique, and when it’s run well, it’s difficult to stop. The Bears (like most of the Ravens opponents) will have to alter their defense to try and contain the unique things Lamar Jackson brings to the table, rather than the other way around. Expect the Ravens to attack in their typical manner, using Jackson as a hybrid QB/RB, but being far more willing to let him throw over 40 times if the game requires it than they have been in previous years.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-6 Bears are riding a four-game losing streak against the Packers/Bucs/49ers/Steelers, and while none of those teams are pushovers, only the Steelers game was competitive. This looks like a lost season for Chicago as they try to rebuild around a rookie QB that needs more time before he’s ready for the NFL. Matt Nagy can’t afford to give up, as the Bears are technically only two games out of the Wildcard, and he could lose his job if this year finishes in a disappointing fashion.

The Bears draw a Baltimore defense in Week 11 that has been more reputation that results, showing poorly against the pass (24th in DVOA), while being middling against the run (15th in DVOA). The Ravens are weaker against the pass, but the difference isn’t likely to tilt the Bears away from doing everything they can to hide Justin Fields. Matt Nagy wants his offense to move painfully slow when the game is close (26th situational neutral pace), but speeded up when winning (5th pace when ahead), and slowed back down when losing (25th in pace when behind). Those splits don’t make much sense, except when you factor in that the Bears have been willing to essentially “give up” several times this year when hopelessly behind. Nagy has limited Fields to under 30 attempts in three out of the past four games (Fields had 32 attempts in a 38-3 blowout to the Bucs), and there is every reason to expect Fields to attempt under 30 passes in this spot. The Bears will come out trying to play slowly and run, hoping something breaks their way early to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Ravens have been installed as confident six-point road favorites early in the week, with Vegas expecting them to take care of a Bears team coming off a bye. The Ravens traditionally beat up on bad defenses, and this year’s Bears squad is a bad defense. The Ravens 26 point team total feels low, with the main obstacle to them reaching that threshold being the pace at which this game is likely to play out. The Ravens main weakness has been against the pass, and the Bears set up poorly to exploit that deficiency. The most likely game flow feels highly likely in this spot, with the Ravens pulling ahead in the first half, before cruising to an easy victory late


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • 45.5 Vegas total is the sixth lowest
  • CHI’s 19.5 implied total is tied for the third lowest on the week
  • CHI averages just 16.7 ppg, tied for third lowest
  • CHI ranks 8th in rush yds, 32nd in pass yds, and 31st in total yds
  • BAL ranks 3rd in rush yds, 12th in pass yds, and 4th in total yds
  • BAL’s 26 implied total is tied for ninth highest on the week
  • Both defenses allow 24+ ppg
  • Per numberFire’s adjusted seconds per play metric, CHI ranks second at 28.1 and BAL ranks 30th at 31.8
  • Per numberFire’s adjusted pass rate, CHI ranks 32nd at 46.1% and BAL ranks 30th at 50.9%

Lamar Jackson

  • Ranks 15th in PFF passing grade
  • 7.9 YPA ranks ninth and 10.5 ADoT ranks second
  • Threw for the fewest YPA and received his lowest passing grade of the season in Week 10 @ MIA
  • His 16.42 DK pts in Week 10 were the second lowest output on the season
  • 26.1 DK ppg average ranks third
  • CHI ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20)
  • CHI held Ben Roethlisberger to 16.2 DK pts prior to their Week 10 bye
  • Prior to that, they allowed 30.28 to Jimmy Garoppolo, 24.44 to Tom Brady, and 23.7 to Aaron Rodgers

BAL Passing Attack

  • Personnel usage rate (league average): 11 personnel 38% (59%) // 12 personnel 4% (22%) // 21 personnel 29% (7%) // 22 personnel 19% (3%)
  • Total snaps since Rashod Bateman entered the lineup in Week 6: Marquise Brown 249 // Mark Andrews 221 // Rashod Bateman 196 // Devin Duvernay 155
  • Total targets from Week 6 onwards: Brown 44 // Andrews 31 // Bateman 28 // Duvernay 10
  • Sammy Watkins returned in Week 10, and appeared on 23 snaps with 3 targets
  • Among all WRs, Brown ranks second in total air yards, 11th in target share, 15th in air yard market share, and 13th in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • Browns 18.8 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • Bateman’s had 6-8 targets in every game
  • Bateman’s DK log: 6.9 // 11 // 10.2 // 14
  • Duvernay did not see a snap reduction with Watkins back in Week 10 (from 41 snaps to 44, and 2 targets to 4)
  • Duvernay has only scored double digit DK pts once this year
  • CHI has allowed the highest percentage of their receiving yardage against to go opposing WRs (75.1%), per JJ Zachariason
  • CHI ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (41.5)
  • Among all qualified TEs, Andrews ranks fifth in total air yards, fourth in target share, sixth in air yard market share, and fifth in WOPR
  • His 16 DK ppg ranks second
  • CHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.2)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Tyler Higbee 11.8 // TJ Hockenson 8.2 // Darren Waller 8.5 // Robert Tonyan 3 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

BAL RBs

  • Le’Veon Bell was just cut from the team
  • Snap share: Devonta Freeman 32.7% // Latavius Murray 26.3% // Ty’Son Williams 23.3%
  • Target share: Freeman 5% // Williams 3.4% // Murray 1.6%
  • Touches per game: Murray 10.5 // Freeman 6.8 // Williams 6
  • No BAL RB has scored 20+ DK pts this year
  • There have been only two instances of 15+ pts: Devonta Freeman 16.3 // Ty’Son Williams 18.4
  • CHI ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.8)

Justin Fields

  • On the season, ranks 29th in PFF passing grade
  • Led all QBs in PFF passing grade in his last start (Week 9)
  • DK log: 3.92 // 8.26 // 8.84 // 14.26 // 6.16 // 29.3 // 19.14
  • BAL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.9)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Carson Wentz 26.58 // Justin Herbert 12 // Joe Burrow 30.64 // Kirk Cousins 21.58

CHI Passing Attack

  • Personnel usage rate (league average): 11 personnel 71% (59%) // 12 personnel 25% (22%)
  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 85.5% // Allen Robinson 83.9% // Cole Kmet 83.4% // Marquise Goodwin 43.9%
  • Target share: Mooney 24.9% // Robinson 21.1% // Kmet 18.6% // Goodwin 10.1%
  • Among all WRs, Mooney ranks 18th in target share, 21st in air yard market share, and 21st in WOPR
  • Mooney has three games of 15+ DK pts and is averaging 11.61
  • Robinson has yet to score 11 DK pts and is averaging 7.77
  • Goodwin has yet to hit double digit DK pts and is averaging 3.65
  • BAL ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.4)
  • There have been only three WRs who posted 15+ DK pts vs. BAL: Justin Jefferson 17 // Michael Pittman 20.9 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1
  • Among all qualified TEs, Kmet ranks seventh in total air yards, ninth in target share, eighth in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • Kmet’s DK log: 9.2 // 1 // 2.1 // 1.6 // 4.2 // 8.9 // 9.3 // 5.4 // 14.7
  • BAL ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (18.8)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mo Alie-Cox 8 // Tyler Conklin 9.5 // Jared Cook 12.5 // Noah Fant 16.6 // CJ Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

David Montgomery

  • David Montgomery returned to the lineup in Week 9, before the Week 10 bye
  • Week 9 snap counts: Montgomery 53 // Khalil Herbert 10
  • Week 9 target counts: Montgomery 2
  • Week 9 touches: Montgomery 15 // Herbert 4
  • Last season, Montgomery averaged 18.3 DK ppg (eighth best)
  • Montgomery’s DK log this year: 21.8 // 10.9 // 7.5 // 25.6 // 10
  • BAL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (26.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Josh Jacobs 17 // Dalvin Cook 18.2 // D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9