Colts (

21) at
Bills (

28)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two teams rank first and second in the NFL in turnover margin; their offenses simply don’t turn the ball over and their defenses are predicated on attacking the football until the whistle.
• Injuries of note include DeForest Buckner (abs, back, throat???), Darius Leonard (ankle, hand), TJ Carrie (knee, but it appears likely defensive back teammate Xavier Rhodes makes his return), and Cole Beasley (ribs).
• One of the higher game totals on the slate, but one that comes with a wide range of potential outcomes as far as true game flow goes.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts operate the slowest situation-neutral offense in the league and run a largely balanced offense. A lot has been made of the rushing success shown over the previous seven games through Jonathan Taylor, but this offense checks in at 13^th in the NFL in pass rate (59%) with the score within seven points (as in, competitive games). The foundation of Frank Reich’s offensive system revolves around layered routes and heavy 11 and 12-personnel rates, creating a dynamic environment that defenses are forced to adjust to in-game. The return to health of wide receiver TY Hilton has given them a dynamic playmaker in the “Z” wider receiver position capable of stretching the field vertically (the duo of Parris Campbell and TY Hilton have missed a combined 13 games this season), which opens up additional room underneath for the running back duo of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, as well as “X” and “Y” wide receivers Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Although the complexities of the route trees are designed to put pressure on a defense at multiple levels, the three primary wide receivers typically align in more traditional roles (“X”, “Y”, “Z”).

Frank Reich has long been hailed as a true technician of the game, tailoring an offense best suited to the personnel available to him, which is no different this year. The problems have largely been just that, the personnel available to him have been hit or miss each week. The main constant has been the running back room, which has devolved into a loose timeshare between Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, with snap rates and opportunity shares largely dictated by the game flow.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve uncovered throughout the site over the preceding four to five weeks, this Bills offense is not the same unit we grew accustomed to attacking with last year. Bankable weekly volume is a bit more convoluted than it has been in the past with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and the expanded role of breakout tight end Dawson Knox. Brian Daboll has shown more muted offensive aggression as far as late-game play calling goes when games have been in hand, and we’ve seen a higher emphasis on the run game in the red zone this season (37.5% rush score rate, compared to 25.37% last year). To put that in another way, we know this pass offense is still one of the top units in the league, but we can’t just close our eyes and click on Josh Allen and two of his pass-catchers and call it good as we could last year. We need to be methodical in our approach to this team now. The Bills run the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play in the league this year, with a blistering pace in games they trail (first-ranked 19.89 seconds per play). They’ve also run the fifth most offensive plays per game at 67.1 and rank fifth in total offense per game (401.1 yards per game).

On the ground, the matchup yields a slightly above average 4.31 net-adjusted line yards metric, but from a macro perspective, the matchup hinges a good deal around the health of Colts linebacker Darius Leonard. Zach Moss and Devin Singletary continue to operate in a tightly split backfield, each typically seeing 45-55% snap rates on a standard week. Matt Breida entered the conversation last week, scoring two touchdowns on only eight offensive snaps. Both Moss and Singletary are each typically good for only eight to 12 running back opportunities on a standard week and shouldn’t warrant our consideration this week in a neutral-at-best matchup.

The money is made (figuratively and literally) through the Bills pass offense, which currently ranks sixth in the NFL in total pass yards per game at 279.2. Week 10 marked just the third time all season that Stefon Diggs out-snapped “Queen Chess piece” Emmanuel Sanders, the latter of whom has been deployed all over the formation this year. Keep an eye on the injury status of slot-man Cole Beasley, who missed practice on Wednesday with his ribs ailment. I’d expect it to simply be a case of load management, but it is a situation worth monitoring, nonetheless. We’ll get into the matchups for each pass-catcher in the DFS Interpretation section below. WR4 Gabriel Davis continues to play a moderate role as a situational receiver, while Isaiah McKenzie typically sees 20-25% of the offensive snaps himself. Breakout tight end Dawson Knox has gotten by on an unsustainable touchdown rate and typically sees between four and five targets.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bills should have no problem passing against a very pass-funnel Colts defense, and while the Colts are presented with a difficult matchup on the offensive side of the ball, they create enough pressure over multiple levels that we’re likely to see them generate some level of success here. Although the chances of this game erupting for a “had to have it” game environment are fairly low, we should see this game played close throughout. The deciding factor may very well be which team wins the turnover battle, as each offense simply doesn’t turn the ball over at a high rate but each defense is built to attack the football in every area (aggressively pursue generating turnovers). So while the actual likeliest game flow depends heavily on if and when one of these defenses can force a timely turnover, we should see a tightly contested game here. That makes nailing down the likeliest game flow rather difficult, but gives us a game environment where we are likely to be able to narrow down the likeliest flow of volume to a point where select players should warrant our consideration from this game.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::