Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- Houston is coming off a bye and, since a Week 1 victory over the Jaguars, have lost eight straight games. Of those games, only one was within one score.
- Houston’s defense has actually been pretty solid while the offense has been the worst in the league.
- Tennessee has continued their string of success even as they are still finding their post-Derrick Henry identity.
- This game pits two relatively slow paced teams against each other who are both short on playmakers.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
Houston is a pretty straightforward team to evaluate. They are slightly above league-average in situation-neutral pass rate and slightly below average in situation-neutral pace — their issues lie in personnel, talent, and execution. Houston’s offensive line PFF ranks are 27th in pass-blocking grade and 32nd in run blocking. Their skill players consist of journeyman veterans and/or young, inexperienced fringe NFL prospects. This combination of poor blocking and lack of playmakers makes it nearly impossible to create offense, as Houston ranks 31st in DVOA for both rush offense and passing offense. While Houston is “trying to win games,” really what they are doing is trying to keep their heads above water and fighting for jobs for next year (for both coaches and players).
Houston has not had over 15 running back rush attempts in any of their last three games, while they have failed to score double-digit points in five of nine games. Tennessee is best attacked on the ground, but Houston’s complete ineptitude in run blocking, along with below-average talent at running back, will make rushing success difficult to count on. Houston will likely continue a balanced attack and hope that Tyrod Taylor’s legs, a big play from Brandin Cooks, or a couple of broken plays can keep them in it.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
Tennessee is trying to establish its identity in a post-Derrick Henry world. Over the last two weeks, the defense has stepped up and led them to victories with impressive performances against the Rams and Saints. In each of the last two weeks, the Titans took control early and did not have to ask much of the offense, which allowed them to remain conservative and run-heavy. This week’s game sets up a similar script, however, meaning we will likely have to wait at least another week to see what it takes to push this offense out of its comfort zone.
Houston’s defense is actually pretty respectable, ranking 17th out of 32 teams in defensive DVOA. The problem is the offense’s complete inability to move the ball or sustain drives, which gives opponents ample opportunity to score points, along with 17 turnovers through nine games leading to short fields. Tennessee is lacking in playmakers but has an above-average quarterback, high-end wide receiver, and a good all-around scheme. Houston’s defense has shown their greatest vulnerability in the running game, and Tennessee will likely lean into that while counting on their defense to feast on the porous Texans offense. When Tennessee does throw the ball, we should expect AJ Brown to feast on the 32nd graded coverage unit by PFF. Tennessee likely won’t need to throw with heavy volume, but we should expect high efficiency and potentially explosiveness when they do.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Both teams are bottom-10 in situation-neutral pace, suggesting a game with relatively low play volume. Houston is not a great running team but will be encouraged to keep things on the ground rather than challenging the #2 graded secondary by PFF. Tennessee ranks 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and in a game that they are heavily favored, are likely to control how it is played and will attack in their most comfortable, familiar fashion — high run rate with some play action and bootleg passing concepts mixed in to make the defense pay for over pursuing the running game.
The combination of these factors sets up a slow-paced game with both teams running at a high rate — meaning the clock will be running and teams will be milking the play clock on both sides. Houston will eventually need to turn more pass-heavy as they fall further behind but are unlikely to see much success in that regard due to their lack of blocking and talent. This means that the Titans will get the ball back quickly after short Texans drives and run the clock even more. Don’t be surprised if this game is done 20 to 30 minutes before the rest of the early games on Sunday.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- TEN offensive pts: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34 // 21 // 23
- HOU has allowed the 4th most points
- Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 4 of his 27 starts since 2020
- Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
- That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
- HOU has allowed 30+ pts to CLE, BUF, IND, ARI, LAR
- Only BUF and ARI have scored more pts than TEN from that group
- HOU ranks a solid 14th in def pass DVOA
- HOU has allowed 21.2 DK pts/g to QBs (8th most)
- WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80) // Kupp (115:1), Van (88) // Waddle (83)
- Brown has 70+ yds in 3 of 8 games this year
- HOU has allowed four 20+ DK pt scores to WRs
- HOU has allowed the 2nd highest success rate to WRs
- Brown vs HOU: 8:114:1 // 4:124:1 // 5:58:2 // 10:151:1
- Touches without Henry (2g): McNichols (11 att, 6 tg) // Peterson (18 att, 2 tg) // Foreman (16 att, 2 tg)
- 15 RBs in nine games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
- Tyrod’s 2.5 games: 291:2, 4:40 // 125:1, 1:25:1 // 240:0:3, 3:23
- TEN has jumped all the way from 27th to 9th in def pass DVOA after facing KC, IND, LAR, NOR the past month (8 INT in the last 7 games)
- 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1) // Lawrence (273:1:1) // Allen (353:3:1) // KC (288:0:1) // Wentz (231:3:2) // Stafford (294:1:2) // Siemian (298:2)
- QB rushing vs TEN: Kyler (20:1) // Russ (16) // Lawrence (28:1) // Allen (26) // Mahomes (35) // Taysom (23)
- Cooks in 5.5 games with Mills: 4:28:1 // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21 // 6:83:1
- Cooks in 2.5 games with Taylor: 5:132 // 5:50 // 6:56
- HOU WR tg with all of Amendola, Collins, Cooks playing last month: Cooks (7, 6, 13) // Collins (5, 4, 3) // Amendola (5, 5, 7)
- Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
- TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021 (46.9)
- Nine WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5)
- TEN has allowed 14 WR TDs
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