Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
26.75) at
Chiefs (
29.25)

Over/Under 56.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Five of the nine games that the Cowboys have played so far this year have gone for 60 combined points or more.
  • Six of the nine games that the Chiefs have played so far this year have gone for 54 combined points or more.
  • Dallas ranks 23rd in red zone touchdown rate allowed at 65.38%, while the Chiefs rank 27th at 68.75%.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire needs to put in a solid week of practice before the Chiefs activate him, but a return is possible this week.
  • The number one and number two most efficient offenses in the league.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Dallas pass rates when leading, in neutral situations, and when trailing, stand at 46%, 56%, and 66% on the season, which all rank in the top ten in the league in each respective category. Dallas defense also ranks fifth in drive success rate allowed. So, how in the hell have over half of the Cowboys games gone for 60 points or more, with half of the remaining four games coming in blowouts over the previous two weeks? They weren’t even all against top offenses, as they combined for more than 60 points against the Bucs, the Eagles, the Panthers, the Giants, and the Patriots. It’s a good question, I’m glad you asked! The Dallas defense ranks seventh in the league in opponent completion rate allowed but 25th in yards allowed per completion. This team has repeatedly been a victim of the deep ball, a recipe for relative disaster against the high octane Chiefs passing attack (third-most passing yards per game at 295.1). We also get a pretty solid glimpse into the tendencies of this offense through their changing pass rates in different situations. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has designed this offense to maximize the talents available to him on the roster and is continually putting this team in the best position to succeed.

In six of the seven games that weren’t blowouts, Ezekiel Elliott has seen a 70% or greater snap rate, leading to an average of 20.6 running back opportunities per game over that seven-game sample. Although no longer asked to carry the football 30+ times as he was earlier in his career, Zeke is still very much a major part of this offense. Spelling Zeke is backup extraordinaire Tony Pollard, who has seen anywhere between six and 18 running back opportunities in games this season. The matchup on the ground yields an ungodly 4.81 net-adjusted line yards metric against an underperforming Chiefs defense allowing 23.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (held down by the only six total touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs this season, which is interesting considering their struggles in the red zone).

Quarterback Dak Prescott has multiple touchdown passes in all but one healthy game this season but has only two games all year over 30 fantasy points, a nod to the balanced nature of this Cowboys offense. Five of his eight games started have seen him attempt 32 passes or fewer, with an overtime game against the Patriots, and a Week 1 shootout against the Bucs standing as two outlier games at over 50 pass attempts apiece. All of that was to highlight the moderate weekly volume expectation of the Dallas pass-catchers in all but extreme game environments, as all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs command their fair share of the pass volume. Furthering that assertion, all Dallas pass-catchers have combined for only four games of an individual seeing double-digit targets. Put another way, this is a spread pass offense. As such, individual pass-catchers must rely on efficiency and touchdowns in order to provide GPP-worthy scores. Keep that in mind as we dive further into this offense below.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

We’ve talked extensively about the offensive tendencies of the Chiefs in this space, so I’ll simply go over the most pertinent information for this game. Patrick Mahomes ranks second in the league in total intended air yards, and the Cowboys defense has struggled with discipline on the back end (overly aggressive). The biggest possible change for the Chiefs this week is the possible return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has been out of action since Week 5 with a knee injury. Even through all the perceived struggles of this Chiefs offense, they maintain their hold as the most efficient offense in the league from a drive success rate perspective, have scored the third-most points per drive, and pick up the most yards per drive. 

Should CEH return to action this week, I would expect more of a split backfield than what we have seen so far this season, with CEH and Darrel Williams splitting the “lead back” role and Jerick McKinnon on hand for the back most likely to be used in obvious pass situations. That muddies the picture a good bit when considering any member of this backfield. Should CEH miss, it is likeliest that Williams maintains the same lead-back role that has led to an average of 19.4 running back opportunities per game in the absence of CEH. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.30 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an offensive line that has largely struggled in most run-blocking metrics. Dallas has allowed just 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.

The pass game all but starts and stops with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who combine for 49.8% of the team’s total available targets on the year. Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, and Josh Gordon have been jockeying back and forth for snaps over the previous three games, with a single receiver amongst those four playing over 60% of the offensive snaps just twice over that time. Again, we’ll get into the matchup a bit more below.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

These two teams like to score points. These two teams also have been susceptible to giving up points. The Cowboys struggle with deep passing via an overly aggressive secondary, while the Chiefs primarily force teams to march the field while limiting splash plays against. Kellen Moore knows this and is likely to design a game plan around his running backs and short-area passing in an attempt to maximize his team’s chances of coming away with a victory. All of this comes together to make the likeliest game flow one of a back and forth, high scoring affair, in which each team is well equipped to attack the weakness of the opposing defense. We’re also unlikely to see one team pull away from the other, giving us a likeliest game environment ripe for fantasy goodness. Okay, that was already too many words to tell you something you already know: this game presents the best game environment on paper on the slate.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • DAL game totals: 60 // 37 // 62 // 64 // 64 // 64 // 36 // 46 // 46
  • KC game totals: 62 // 71 // 54 // 72 // 58 // 48 // 30 // 37 // 20 // 55
  • KC ranks 27th in def pass DVOA & 26th in def rush DVOA
  • DAL ranks 2nd in off pass DVOA & 17th in off rush DVOA

Dak Prescott:

  • Dak has 3+ TDs in six of eight games
  • QB TDs vs KC: 0 // 3 // 4 // 2 // 4 // 1 // 2 // 2 // 1 // 2
  • KC has an INT in five straight
  • Dak has thrown just 5 INT in 8 games
  • KC has allowed the 2nd most QB DK pts/g
  • Dak has scored 25+ DK pts in 5/8 2021 games
  • Dak as road dog in 50+ total games (DK pts): 22.8, 14.8, 17.6, 33.5, 31.4, 8.5

DAL WRs:

  • Lamb has 70+ yds in 6 of 9 games
  • Cooper has 70+ yds in 2 of 9 games
  • Cooper’s only 2 games both surpassed 100 yds, and both came in games Lamb also surpassed 100 yds
  • WR targets with Dak: Lamb (65) // Cooper (51) // Wilson (24) // Gallup (12)
  • WR targets with Gallup: Lamb (15, 7) // Cooper (16, 4) // Gallup (7, 5)
  • WRs with 8+ tg vs KC: Hollywood (6:113:1) // Williams (7:122:2), Allen (8:50:1) // Smith (7:122) // McLaurin (4:28) // AJ Brown (8:133:1) // Adams (6:42) // Renfrow (7:46:1)
  • KC has allowed the 13th lowest success rate to WRs on the 6th lowest WR tg rate faced
  • Lamb has three scores under 10 DK pts (9.5, 3.3, 4.3)
  • Lamb has three scores over 25 DK pts (26.4, 39.1, 28.6)
  • Cooper has games of 41.9 & 29.2 DK pts
  • Cooper’s other scores: 5.4, 5.6, 5.7, 9.1, 10.5, 15.0, 15.9
  • Gallup with Dak & McCarthy: 3:50 // 2:58 // 6:138:1 // 2:29 // 4:36 // 3:42

Dalton Schultz:

  • TEs vs KC: CLE (120) // Andrews (67) // LAC (67) // PHI (116:1) // Knox (117:1) // RSJ (58:1) // Pruitt (27:1) // NYG (27:2) // Deguara (16) // Waller (24)
  • Schultz targets: 6, 2, 7, 8, 8, 6, 7, 5, 2
  • Schultz has just two games below 45 yds with Dak: 45, 18, 80, 58, 79, 79, 54, 14

Ezekiel Elliott:

  • Elliott’s rush att: 11, 16, 17, 20, 21, 17, 16, 10, 14
  • Elliott’s targets: 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 9, 6, 3, 3
  • Elliott’s touches: 13, 18, 20, 21, 24, 26, 22, 13, 17
  • Elliott’s total yds: 39, 97, 116, 143, 112, 119, 73, 76, 56
  • RBs with 15+ touches vs KC: Chubb (101:2) // Williams (93) // Ekeler (107:1) // Moss (92) // McKissic (110) // Henry (102) // Booker (125)
  • Henry & Chubb are the only RBs with 80+ rush yds vs KC
  • 40+ rec yds vs KC: Ekeler (52:1) // Gainwell (58) // Moss (55) // McKissic (65) // Booker (65) // Dillon (44)
  • KC allowed 6 RB TDs in first four games
  • KC has allowed 0 RB TDs in last six games
  • Criteria: underdog, 50+ pt total, 12-16 avg rush att:::
  • 192 RBs match that criteria since 2014, with just 15 scores of 25+ DK pts and 6 scores of 30+ DK pts (CMC, Drake, Gordon, Hunt, Forsett, Murray)
  • When sample shrunk to 14-16 avg rush att, 10 of 92 have 25+ DK pts, 5 have 30+
  • Elliott is averaging 15.8 rush att & 3.6 tg in 2021

Patrick Mahomes:

  • After holding Matt Ryan to 2.7 DK pts, DAL jumped from allowing the 4th most QB DK pts/g to the 13th most QB DK pts/g
  • Brady, Herbert, Hurts, Darnold all threw for 300+ yds vs DAL in the opening month
  • No QB has thrown for 250 yds since (Glennon, Mac, Cousins, Teddy, Ryan)
  • Mahomes has thrown for 250+ yds in 8/10 games, and 300+ yds in 4 of them
  • DAL ranks 3rd in def pass DVOA, as they’ve allowed 14 pass TDs to 14 INTs
  • Mahomes threw 10 INT in first 8 g, and 0 in the last 2 g
  • Mahomes has played 23 games as a Home Favorite in a game implied for 50+ pts; he has scored 25+ DK pts in 12 of them, and 30+ DK pts in 8 of them

KC WRs:

  • Tyreek Hill has finished above 60 rec yds in 42 of his 56 full games since 2018
  • The final game scores of Hill’s 25+ pt scores since 2020: (35-9), (33-31), (35-31), (27-24), (33-27), (38-24), (33-29), (42-30), (20-17), (41-14)
  • Hill targets: 15 // 4 // 7 // 12 // 13 // 12 // 9 // 18 // 11 // 10
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs DAL: AB (121), Godwin (105) // Allen (108), Williams (91) // Moore (113) // Toney (189) // Bourne (75) // Thielen (78) // Patrick (85)
  • All but Allen & Toney scored at least one TD as well
  • DAL has allowed the 8th highest rate of explosive pass plays to WRs
  • Hill has played in 21 of the 23 aforementioned Mahomes games, scoring 25+ DK pts in 7 of them, and 30+ DK pts in 3 of them
  • Since 2014, 126 WRs averaging 10+ tg/g in games implied for 50+ pts have averaged 21.01 DK pts/g, and 24 have scored 30+ DK pts (19%)
  • Since 2019 (48 games), the quartet of Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle has produced just five scores of 20+ DK pts, and the two biggest came during the absence of Hill

Travis Kelce:

  • Since 2020: Kelce has produced 70+ yds in 19/28 games, including 12 100yd games and 19 TDs
  • TEs vs DAL: Gronk (8:90:2) // Cook (3:28) // Goedert (2:66), Ertz (4:53:1) // Engram (4:55) // Henry (2:25:1) // Conklin (5:57) // Pitts (4:60); Both Parham & Cook had TDs called back vs DAL in W2
  • DAL has allowed the 6th highest yds/att to TEs
  • Kelce has scored 17+ DK pts in 7/10 games; 20+ in 4g
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill sub-15 DK pts: 22.5 // 30.6 // 22.8 // 26.9 // 20.4 // 17.7 // 12.5 // 17.8
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill 25+ DK pts: 27.9 // 28.9 // 29.9 // 16.2 // 30.6 // 25.6 // 6.3 // 4.7 // 22.9

KC RBs:

  • DAL ranks 18th in def rush DVOA
  • RBs with 50+ rush yds vs DAL: Ekeler (54) // Hubbard (57) // Harris (101:1) // Cook (78) // Gordon (80:1), Williams (111) // Gallman (55)
  • CEH had two 100 yd rush outings before getting hurt vs BUF
  • Williams rushing without CEH: 62:2 // 20 // 49 // 70 // 43
  • Notable RB receiving vs DAL: TB (39) // Ekeler (61) // PHI (65) // CAR (62) // Booker (16:1) // Stevenson (39)
  • CEH hasn’t received more than 3 tg in a game this season
  • Williams targets without CEH: 4 // 4 // 6 // 4 // 9
  • Williams rec yds without CEH: 27 // 30 // 61 // 7 // 101:1
  • Lead RB touches for KC: CEH (17, 13, 19, 17, 9) // Williams (25, 9, 19, 23, 20)