Week 11 Matchups

Mid Season Recaps!

By :: MJohnson



Final 6 Divisions Released Next Week

Kickoff Thursday, Nov 18th 8:20pm Eastern

Patriots (
27) at

Falcons (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass


Week 11 is here and now it’s clear we’re on the back half of the NFL season, counting down towards the end (sigh). We start here with the Patriots visiting the Falcons for a 47.5 total game with New England favored by seven. I’m not actually sure about Patriots team totals this year, I haven’t really kept track, but I bet this is one of the highest they’ve had (if not the highest). You can count me as one of the people who somewhat disregarded the Patriots this season, with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
19.5) at

Eagles (

Over/Under 42.0


Key Matchups
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game features two teams that are 30th and 31st in situation-neutral pass rate.
  • Matchup and injury could force these teams away from how they choose to attack offensively.
  • This is a game with big playoff implications for both teams as they could end up vying for one of the last wildcard spots based on current records and future outlook.
  • The injury statuses of Alvin Kamara and Dallas Goedert will have a huge impact on the fantasy potential of this game.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

New Orleans is 30th in situation-neutral run rate and plays at the 29th fastest pace (seconds per snap) in the league. The strength of this team is their defense and coaching, which is how they try to win games. The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games, and those losses have been a pair of two-point losses that came down to the wire and an overtime loss. They focus on playing fundamental football, trying to force their opponent into mistakes, and hoping to pull-out close games late. 

This week the Saints travel to face an Eagles team with a middling defense by most metrics, but one that has performed very well against non-elite offenses. Team splits by opponents:

  • ATL, SF, CAR, DET, DEN: 12 points per game
  • DAL, KC, TB, LV, LAC: 34.2 points per game

What this tells us is that Philadelphia’s defense is a problem for weaker offenses but lacks the personnel to keep up with more explosive teams. The Saints are trotting out former third-string QB Trevor Siemian and, outside of Alvin Kamara, the Saints have possibly the worst skill position group in the league. This leads us down a path of realizing they fit much more closely with the first group of teams listed above than the high-powered second group. While Siemian has looked decent the last two weeks in bringing his team back from late deficits to make games close, he is not at the point where Sean Payton will put the game in his hands voluntarily. If Alvin Kamara plays, the Saints will lean on him and Mark Ingram because they will recognize that is the strongest area on their offense. If Kamara is unable to play, they will still likely lean heavily towards the run as their complete lack of explosive skill players will make them want to slow this game down and hope things break right late.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Philadelphia has turned from the 10th highest situation-neutral pass rate through Week 6 to, by far, the most run-heavy team in the league over the last four weeks. The Eagles have run the ball at a 68% rate over a three-week period, but those games have come against the 32nd, 23rd, and 29th ranked teams in rush defense DVOA. This week will be an interesting litmus test for the Eagles as they host the Saints’ #1 ranked run defense. Since their Week 6 bye, the Saints have held opponents to only 65 rushing yards per game. While they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of rushing offenses, those numbers are truly elite and show how consistently stout this defensive front is. Christian McCaffery’s 72 rushing yards in Week 2 is the most an individual player has managed, and the only game all season that a team has managed 100 rushing yards was Week 5 against Washington, and that was primarily due to Taylor Heinicke rushing for 40 yards on scrambles. 

Heinicke’s success on the ground may point to what the Eagles have to rely on here in order to move the football consistently. Jalen Hurts is able to run the ball successfully on designed runs or scrambles, and while he hasn’t needed to run much over the last three weeks, this is a spot where he will likely have to take off fairly often. The Saints have not played a true rushing QB yet this year, and the new dynamic may shake things up a bit for them. Dallas Goedert was knocked out of Week 10 with a concussion, and his potential absence would make things difficult for the passing game as well, with Marshon Lattimore likely able to lock into Devonta Smith. The Eagles are most successful as a team when they are able to run the ball effectively and with volume, but that is going to be a tough task this week. Jalen Hurts, or the Eagles defense is going to have to win this game for them.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams are likely to struggle to move the football and will play conservatively in the hopes that the opponent blinks first by making some mistakes. Each team has one dynamic weapon that would have a chance to break things open in Kamara and Hurts, assuming Kamara is healthy. However, the lack of other viable threats for each team will allow the talented and well-coached defenses to key on those players and keep the chances low of a high-paced, high-scoring game breaking out.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Jalen Hurts’ first win and Taysom Hill’s first loss came in NOR @ PHI in 2020
  • Miles Sanders & Jalen Hurts both broke a 3-season long streak of NOR not allowing a 100-yd rusher, with 82 of Sanders 115 yds coming on one breakaway TD
  • No PHI player finished with more than 50 rec yds in that game
  • Devonta Smith has 60+ rec yds in 6 games already (71, 122, 77, 61, 116, 66)

Jalen Hurts:

  • NOR has allowed 15 QB TDs to 11 INTs on 36 pass att/g
  • Hurts has scored 18 TDs to 5 INT on 29.6 pass att/g
  • QB rushing vs NOR: Mac (28) // Dimes (27) // Heinicke (40) // Ryan (TD) // Tanny (TD)
  • Hurts rushed for 106 yds vs NOR in 2020
  • Hurts rushing in 2021: 62 // 82:1 // 35 // 47 // 30:2 // 44:2 // 61 // 71 // 62 // 53
  • Total QB yds allowed by NOR: 201 // 312 // 298 // 429 // 288 // 179 // 377 // 354 // 214


  • Watkins hasn’t produced more than 48 yds since W2, though drops are holding him back from some huge plays
  • NOR has allowed the 3rd highest rate of explosive pass plays to WRs
  • Smith has 15+ DK pts in 5/10 games: 19.1 // 22.2 // 15.7 // 25.6 // 22.6
  • Smith has sub-6 DK pts in 4 of the other 5 games: 3.6 // 5.8 // 5.1 // 2.5
  • 10 WRs have 70+ yds vs NOR this season
  • NOR has allowed 10 WR TDs, with 5 of them from TB/ATL
  • #1 WRs vs NOR: Adams (5:56) // Moore (8:79:1) // Meyers (9:94) // Golladay (6:116) // McLaurin (4:46) // Metcalf (2:96:1) // Evans (2:48:1) // AJ Brown (1:16)

Dallas Goedert:

  • Targets without Ertz: 5 // 7 // 6 // 2
  • Yards without Ertz: 70 // 72 // 43 // 28
  • NOR has allowed the 4th lowest success rate to TEs
  • No TE has scored 10+ DK pts vs NOR in 2021
  • Pruitt’s TD last week was the first TE TD allowed by NOR


  • Rush att leader for PHI by week: Sanders (15, 13, 2, 7, 11, 9, 6) // Gainwell (13) // Howard (17, 12)
  • Lead RB rushing vs NOR: Jones (5:9) // CMC (24:72:1) // Harris (6:14) // Saquon (13:52:1) // Gibson (20:60:2) // Collins (16:35) // Fournette (8:26) // Davis (9:13) // Foreman (11:30)
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6)
  • That’s 14 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 62 games, and just 6 of 25+
  • 13/14 scored a TD /// 6/14 scored 2 TDs /// 10/14 had 5+ rec /// 13/14 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Of the four without 5 rec, one had 82 yd TD, one caught a deep WR pass TD, one had 28 rush att, and all four scored 2 TDs
  • CPatt had 21.6 of his 22.6 DK pts come through the air in W9, and before his 64 yd rec on the final comeback drive, he had 12.2 total DK pts
  • 2021: CMC, Saquon, CPatt combined for 16 rec, 51.5 DK rec pts vs NOR
  • 2021: CMC, Saquon, & Gibson combined for 5 TDs vs NOR
  • Sanders & Gainwell each have just one game of 5+ rec (Sanders: 5:6 // Gainwell: 6:58)
  • Sanders has yet to score this year
  • Sanders has one game of more than 10.1 DK pts this year (17.3 vs ATL)
  • Each RB’s season-high in DK pts: Sanders (17.3) // Gainwell (20.9) // Scott (18) // Howard (17.7)


  • Siemian has 249:2 & 298:2 on 37.5 pass att/g in his two starts, with a lot of production coming in comeback mode in the 4th
  • Herbert & Carr are the only QBs to pass for 300+ yds vs PHI, and Mahomes & Brady are the only others to pass for 250+ yds
  • PHI is facing just 34.1 pass att/g (11th lowest)
  • Taysom passing in starts: 233:0 // 78:0:1 // 232:2 // 291:2:1
  • Taysom rushing in starts: 10:49:2 // 10:44:2 // 14:83 // 5:33
  • Michael Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders received 54 of his 114 passes in those games
  • QB rushing vs PHI: Jimmy (20:1) // Mahomes (26) // Herbert (14:1)


  • Even with TDs in both of Siemian’s starts, Callaway hasn’t topped 12 DK pts as he’s only produced 62 yds in those games
  • Tre’Quan since returning: 1:11 // 3:33:1 // 3:53 // 4:44:1
  • Deonte Harris has been the most productive NOR WR, with five games of 50+ rec yds (72, 52, 72, 52, 84)
  • PHI has allowed the 3rd fewest WR DK pts/g (29) and the 2nd fewest WR rec yds
  • Callaway is the only NOR WR with 20+ DK pts this season, and it required a Hail Mary TD


  • Kamara’s total touches: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 23 // 20 // –
  • Ingram back in NOR: (6 att, 2 tg) // (9, 5) // (14, 7)
  • The CAR blowout loss is the only game in which Kamara has fewer touches than the two games with Ingram
  • RBs with 15+ touches vs PHI (total yds:TDs): Davis (72) // Mitchell (53) // Zeke (116:2) // CEH (114:1) // Chuba (134) // Fournette (127:2) // Drake (79:1) // Swift (51) // Ekeler (82)
  • 13 RBs have 40+ rush yds vs PHI, 7 RBs have 60+ rush yds
  • PHI has allowed the 4th highest success rate on RB targets
  • RB rec in Siemian starts: AK (4:54, –) // Ingram (5:21, 4:61)
  • AK vs PHI in 2020: 11:50:1, 7:44

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
24.25) at

Jets (

Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The Jets will be starting Joe Flacco, who brings career 6.8 yards per attempt and 10.9 yards per completion marks to the table against a defense allowing 42.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, while ranking 28th in the league in yards allowed per pass.
  • The Miami defense blitzes at the second highest rate in the league, a large contributing factor to the Jets’ decision to start Flacco here.
  • New York’s pace of play jumps from a 32.22 second per play situation-neutral mark all the way up to 24.85 seconds per play in the second half this season, which is a significant jump. That also means that Jets game environments are highly reliant on their opposition to generate positive environments.
  • The Dolphins will be playing this game with a depleted pass-catching corps and a quarterback with a “banged up finger” on his throwing hand.

How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s situation-neutral pass rates in all games in which Tua Tagovailoa started sits at 64% this season, a tick below their season average of 66%. Their pace of play sits at a 14th-ranked 30.30 situation-neutral mark and eighth-ranked 26.61 mark overall. In neutral-to-positive game flows, Tua averages just over 13 pass attempts per half (only six quarters in this sample size this season), as the team has been forced into continual negative game scripts due to an underperforming defense. Speaking of that defense, the Dolphins blitz at the league’s second highest rate and play elevated man coverages because of it. Miami’s pass rates are top five in the league in almost every split (first half, second half, with a lead, with a lead in the second half, etc), meaning the expected pass volume this week depends almost entirely on Tua’s health.

Myles Gaskin has emerged as the borderline workhorse running back on this offense in the absence of Malcolm Brown, who has already been ruled out for this weekend. Over the last four weeks, his snap rates have been 63%, 58%, 72%, and 61%, leading to running back opportunity counts of 19, 16, 26, and 16. The efficiency has been extremely lacking behind an atrocious offensive line, but the volume has been, and should continue to be there. Expect Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird to operate sparingly in change of pace roles. The matchup on the ground yields a gross-on-paper 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric, held low via Miami’s second to last rank. Four to six targets with 14-16 rush attempts should be considered Gaskin’s standard range of outcomes as far as expected workload goes here.

Preston Williams appeared to remain in the proverbial doghouse in Week 10 after being held out for two consecutive contests, landing a modest 26% snap rate. Albert Wilson continues to operate in a modified third wide receiver role, primarily out of the slot, leaving Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki as the only true every-down pass-catchers on this offense. The second wide receiver role was split between Williams, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford last week, and unless Preston is removed from the doghouse, all three are likely to split the role again here. Via the previous discussion, Miami has really only controlled the game environment for six quarters with Tua under center, leading to an average of 13.3 pass attempts per quarter. Are we likely to only see 27 pass attempts here? No, I’d say we’re likeliest to see somewhere in the range of 32-35 pass attempts from the Dolphins based on their season-to-date tendencies, leaving seven to nine targets for Waddle, six to eight targets for Gesicki, four to six targets for the aforementioned running back Myles Gaskin, and 15 or so targets split amongst Albert Wilson, Preston Williams, Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, Salvon Ahmed, and Patrick Laird. Not a ton to love here.

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

Things get shaken up a good bit for the Jets this week with the news that Joe Flacco will garner the start. Number two overall pick Zach Wilson apparently isn’t healthy enough to return to a starting role and the team is moving on from the Mike White experiment, paving the way for Flacco to draw the start after being recently acquired from the Eagles. On the season, the Jets rank second in the league in situation-neutral pass rates, checking in just behind the Bucs at 67%. Their situation-neutral pace of play ranks 25th at 32.22 seconds per play, which jumps to a third-ranked 24.85 seconds per play in the second half (that, my friends, is a substantial jump!). We should consider the Jets a team that required outside influence to force the issue as far as game environment goes, which has been the case fairly often this year. 

The return of Tevin Coleman muddied the waters of this Jets backfield further, who returned to his standard, pre-injury role as the primary early-down, change of pace rusher. Those snaps came to the direct detriment of starter Michael Carter, while Ty Johnson maintained his role as the primary “obvious pass down” back. The pure rushing matchup returns a below-average 4.015 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a slight downgrade against the pass-funnel nature of the Dolphins defense. The biggest impact to this backfield, more so than the return of Tevin Coleman, is the change at quarterback, as Flacco has targeted the running back position at a whopping 23.5% over his career. For perspective, the NFL average for running back target rate this season is just over 18%. This would seem to result in a significant boost to the back on the field the most in Michael Carter, who would still require efficiency and multiple trips to the end zone in order to provide a GPP-worthy score, but who also sees a slightly elevated floor compared to weeks prior (more on this below).

Similar to our discussion on the running back position, we can gain a glimpse of the expected target distribution for the Jets this week by examining the career positional target rates for new starter Joe Flacco. Flacco has targeted the slot wide receiver position at one of the lower rates of qualifying quarterbacks over his career at just over 16%. What does this mean? When we take a big picture look at Flacco and his underlying metrics over his career, we find that his first read is fairly often a perimeter wide receiver on intermediate-to-deep routes, and if forced into second and third reads (either through pressure or sticky coverage on the back end), he is more than willing to simply check the ball down to his running back. Back to Michael Carter, who is in a route on 42.7% of the team’s passing plays this season. When we then consider the heavy blitz rates of the Miami defense, we’re left with a good path to six to eight targets for Michael Carter here, with possible paths to more should Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage continue. Speaking of those struggles, Davis holds a 12.0 yards per target mark against zone this season and a 6.0 yards per target mark against man, a glaring split to consider against the heavy man coverages shown by the Dolphins this season with the return to health by perimeter corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So, while Davis is the “deep threat” in this offense (13.4 aDOT, compared to 5.4 for Jamison Crowder and 11.9 for Elijah Moore), the chances for him returning a strong GPP-worthy score here are much lower than I initially thought, before diving into the setup of this game. In all, no one player profiles as a strong on-paper play from the Jets this week with Flacco at quarterback, although Michael Carter should be considered the top play from this team.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Because the Jets don’t force the issue on their own, but they up their pace of play to extreme levels if forced to do so, the overall game environment from this one depends almost entirely on Miami’s ability to put points up on the scoreboard in the first half. Considering the heavy injuries to Miami’s pass-catching corps, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ailing finger injury, and Miami’s propensity to let games come to them depending on their defense’s ability to limit scoring, we’re left with a situation where the percentage solution here is a game environment largely devoid of paths to upside. To put that another way, in order for this game to really take off, it would likely require aggression to be initiated by Miami, which we are extremely unlikely to see here considering the current state of the Dolphins. That gives us a likeliest game flow where the first half is played to a relative slugfest, with Miami eventually asserting control later in the game. Joe Flacco’s career 61.7% completion rate and low touchdown totals (only 225 passing scores in 175 career starts) make first-half success for the Jets highly unlikely here, particularly considering de facto alpha Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage so far this year. Since the Dolphins are likely to take a conservative approach with a depleted pass-catching corps and an injury to the throwing hand of their starting quarterback, and since the Jets don’t show aggression unless forced to do so, we’re likeliest to see a game decided late in the fourth quarter or by the Miami defense. All of that to say, this game environment is not one to go out of our way to attack this week.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Vegas total of 45 is the fourth lowest on the week
  • MIA averages the fifth lowest ppg, NYJ averages the sixth lowest
  • NYJ allows the most ppg in the league (32.9)
  • MIA allows 25.2 ppg, ninth most
  • MIA is coming off an upset of BAL, as an +8.5 underdog
  • NYJ has allowed 24+ pts in all but one game, 30+ in the last four games including two 45 pt beatdowns and 54 pts to NE
  • Per numberFire, MIA ranks 20th in adjusted seconds per play and third in adjusted pass rate
  • NYJ ranks 24th in adjusted seconds per play and ninth in adjusted pass rate

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Ranks 24th in PFF passing grade
  • 7.0 YPA ranks tied for 27th and 7.7 ADoT ranks tied for 28th
  • DK log: 17.18 // 25.36 // 28.54 // 16.2
  • If only including games he started and finished, his 21.82 DK pts would rank in the top 10 among QBs
  • NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.1)
  • Six out of nine opposing QBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. NYJ: Sam Darnold 20.06 // Matt Ryan 24.58 // Mac Jones 25.18 // Joe Burrow 21.26 // Carson Wentz 24.18 // Josh Allen 24.94

MIA Passing Attack

  • MIA uses 11 personnel at the second lowest rate in the league at 32% (league average is 59%) and 12 personnel at the highest rate by far at 58% (average is 22%)
  • Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 83.8% // Mike Gesicki 73.1% // Durham Smythe 52.5% // Adam Shaheen 37.9% // Mack Hollins 36.7%
  • Target counts for the last two weeks (Parker was placed on IR following Week 8’s 11 target game): Waddle 16 // Gesicki 15 // Albert Wilson 7 // Hollins 7 // Shaheen 6 // Isaiah Ford 4 // Smythe 3
  • Waddle has yet to hit 20 DK pts, but he has hit double digits in six out of 10 games
  • Hollins has hit double digits twice, Wilson and Ford have yet to do so
  • NYJ ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.4)
  • There have only been six WR scores of 15+ vs. NYJ: DJ Moore 15.4 // Kendrick Bourne 15.8 // Gabriel Davis 16.5 // Michael Pittman 17.4 // Tyler Boyd 19.74 // Stefon Diggs 33.2
  • Among all qualified TEs, Gesicki ranks fourth in air yards, ninth in target share, fourth in air yard market share, and seventh in WOPR
  • Despite scoring 0 pts last week and in Week 1, Gesicki’s 11.4 DK ppg still ranks ninth among TEs
  • DK log: 0 // 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7 // 8.3 // 22.5 // 21.5 // 9.8 // 9.4 // 0
  • NYJ ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.1)
  • Kyle Pitts had the only must have TE score against NYJ (29.9)
  • No other TE has hit 15 pts

Myles Gaskin

  • Among qualified RBs, Gaskin ranks 12th in target share, 12th in WOPR, and 22nd in RBOPR
  • In the last two weeks, his 41 total touches ranks sixth
  • He scored 16.7 and 5.5 DK pts in those two weeks
  • His only GPP worthy score was 31.9 @ TB
  • He has no other 20+ DK pt scores
  • NYJ ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (40.5)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Nyheim Hines 20.8 // Joe Mixon 25.1 // CMC 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Jonathan Taylor 37

Joe Flacco

  • Since 2014, averages 15.87 DK ppg
  • MIA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (21.5)
  • Opposing QB scores: Mac Jones 15.24 // Josh Allen 17.66 // Derek Carr 25.24 // Carson Wentz 17.92 // Tom Brady 40.74 // Trevor Lawrence 19.86 // Matt Ryan 22.44 // Josh Allen 29.46 // Tyrod Taylor 8.9 // Lamar Jackson 16.42

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Ryan Griffin 63.6% // Corey Davis 60.3% // Elijah Moore 52% // Jamison Crowder 49% // Tyler Kroft 43.6% // Keelan Cole 42.6%
  • Target share: Davis 13.6% // Moore 12.7% // Crowder 11.9% // Braxton Berrios 8.6% // Cole 8% // Griffin 7.5% // Kroft 4.2%
  • Among qualified WRs, Davis is 23rd in air yard market share
  • Davis’s DK log: 26.7 // 2.8 // 9.1 // 24.1 // 8.5 // 14.7 // 13.3
  • Moore’s DK log: 0.7 // 8.7 // 5.2 // 10.2 // 13.1 // 27.4 // 13.4
  • Crowder’s DK log: 19.1 // 8.4 // 7.4 // 17.4 // 18.8 // 5
  • No other WR has hit 15 DK pts
  • MIA ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (42.3)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Stefon Diggs 16 // Russell Gage 16.7 // Nelson Agholor 18.2 // Hunter Renfrow 18.7 // Cole Beasley 24 // Marvin Jones 26 // Mike Evans 32.3 // Antonio Brown 34.4
  • There have only been two TE scores in the double digits: Tyler Kroft 10 (Week 8 @ CIN) // Ryan Griffin 12.8 (Week 9 vs. IND)
  • MIA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.6)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Darren Waller 10.4 // Mark Andrews 18.3 // Mo Alie-Cox 19.2 // Kyle Pitts 26.3

Michael Carter

  • Michael Carter took command of the backfield starting in Week 7
  • Snap counts since then: Carter 191 // Ty Johnson 102 // Tevin Coleman 17 (all in Week 10)
  • Target counts: Carter 31 // Johnson 24 // Coleman 3
  • Touch counts: Carter 77 // Johnson 33 // Coleman 6
  • Among qualified RBs, Carter ranks 13th in goal line share, eighth in total targets, ninth in target share, ninth in WOPR, and 11th in RBOPR
  • Carter’s DK log since Week 7: 17.4 // 32.2 // 9.6 // 18.2
  • MIA ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Damien Harris 15.7 // Zack Moss 16.4 // Devin Singletary 17.1 // James Robinson 19.1 // Leonard Fournette 21 // Jonathan Taylor 23.4 // Peyton Barber 26.2

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

20) at

Panthers (

Over/Under 43.0


Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • Washington is likely overrated by most people after a surprising upset of the Bucs.
  • Carolina is a new team with Cam Newton under center and has one of the best defenses in the league.
  • Washington will lean into the run due to recent results and the strength of the Panthers’ pass defense.
  • Carolina has the advantage of the unknown as Washington has very little game film to prepare for Cam Newton as the full-time QB, while Washington is also without their two best defensive linemen in Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::

Ron Rivera is an old-school coach at heart. While he got some praise for some aggressive 4th down play-calling during his time in Carolina, that really wasn’t him behind most of it and, when it comes down to it, he is a defensive coach with conservative play-calling tendencies. Last week was a signature win for Washington against the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs where they won with defense and a conservative approach. Rivera is now returning to Carolina and facing a team with Cam Newton, his former QB from his time there who he has passed up acquiring multiple times since. While “narratives” are often overblown for players, coaches have a huge impact on games as their decisions and mindsets can set the course of a game. While last week’s win likely had more to do with a depleted Bucs offense laying a dud in a flat performance coming out of a bye week than it did with anything Washington was doing, Rivera will be of the belief that they’ve found a recipe that they need to continue using.

Washington ran the ball on over 50% of their plays last week despite averaging under three yards per carry. Rivera is likely to follow the “results over process” mindset here and attempt to slug it out on the ground. The matchup with the Panthers also dictates that as the likely method of attack as Carolina’s loaded secondary and pass rush give them the #2 ranked DVOA pass defense as opposed to ranking 19th in rush defense. I expect it to be very hard for Washington to move the ball through the air, especially if Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones both miss the game and leave them down to their third-string tight end. Terry McLaurin is a great player and can overcome tough individual matchups but the Panthers have maybe the most talented secondary in the league. With no other serious threats to draw attention, it will be tough for him to be a focal point of moving the ball. Washington will have a heavy dose of running back usage with Heinicke sprinkling in short area passes spread out among the rest of the receivers and running backs, usually using motions and schemed plays to create easier throws.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Christian McCaffery and Cam Newton are back together in the Carolina backfield and give the Panthers a dynamic look that is much different than the Panthers’ offense from most of the first half of the season. McCaffery handled 23 opportunities (13 carries and 10 targets) in Week 10 before sitting out the 4th quarter of a blowout, signaling that he is back and will see the elite usage that we expect. Newton will also open some things up for Carolina in the running game and short area. His presence can not be understated, as he changes the entire dynamic for the defense. The Panthers spent much of the season without any true playmaking threats in their backfield, which let teams bring pressure and/or get exotic in the secondary to pick on their average to mediocre quarterback play. The presence of both CMC and Cam now stretches defenses both horizontally and vertically, while creating confusion on read-option and play-action plays. Cam isn’t necessarily an elite passer, but what his rushing threat does to a defense along with CMC’s presence in the short area will make things much easier for him in intermediate and deep passing than it was for Sam Darnold and PJ Walker.

Carolina will lean into their new identity and I trust offensive coordinator Joe Brady to use his weapons creatively. Washington ranks 6th in rush defense DVOA, but just lost all-pro DE Chase Young for the season and has not faced anything close to the threats out of the backfield that the Panthers possess. Carolina should be able to use read-option and play-action passing to keep Washington’s front seven off balance while attacking a very beatable secondary (29th in PFF coverage grade and 29th in DVOA pass defense) in one-on-one situations with their talented receivers.

Likeliest Game flow ::

If any team is going to take control of this game, it is overwhelmingly likely that it would be the Panthers. While this is definitely a winnable game for Washington, the range of outcomes in this game leans much further towards Carolina than the 3-point spread would seem to indicate at first glance. While many people will be high on Washington after their big win over the Bucs, the reality is that this is still a below-average offensive team who just lost their best defensive player. 

The likeliest game flow is a moderately paced and moderate scoring first half, with Carolina gradually taking control as the game wears on. Washington will be conservative when the game is close and even more conservative if they get any kind of a lead. If Carolina can build a lead, they will force Heinicke to throw into the teeth of their defense and will be able to attack Washington on the ground and through the air in a positive game script — Cam has always been at his best when playing with a lead.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
21) at

Bills (

Over/Under 49.0


Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • These two teams rank first and second in the NFL in turnover margin; their offenses simply don’t turn the ball over and their defenses are predicated on attacking the football until the whistle.
  • Injuries of note include DeForest Buckner (abs, back, throat???), Darius Leonard (ankle, hand), TJ Carrie (knee, but it appears likely defensive back teammate Xavier Rhodes makes his return), and Cole Beasley (ribs).
  • One of the higher game totals on the slate, but one that comes with a wide range of potential outcomes as far as true game flow goes.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts operate the slowest situation-neutral offense in the league and run a largely balanced offense. A lot has been made of the rushing success shown over the previous seven games through Jonathan Taylor, but this offense checks in at 13th in the NFL in pass rate (59%) with the score within seven points (as in, competitive games). The foundation of Frank Reich’s offensive system revolves around layered routes and heavy 11 and 12-personnel rates, creating a dynamic environment that defenses are forced to adjust to in-game. The return to health of wide receiver TY Hilton has given them a dynamic playmaker in the “Z” wider receiver position capable of stretching the field vertically (the duo of Parris Campbell and TY Hilton have missed a combined 13 games this season), which opens up additional room underneath for the running back duo of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, as well as “X” and “Y” wide receivers Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Although the complexities of the route trees are designed to put pressure on a defense at multiple levels, the three primary wide receivers typically align in more traditional roles (“X”, “Y”, “Z”).

Frank Reich has long been hailed as a true technician of the game, tailoring an offense best suited to the personnel available to him, which is no different this year. The problems have largely been just that, the personnel available to him have been hit or miss each week. The main constant has been the running back room, which has devolved into a loose timeshare between Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, with snap rates and opportunity shares largely dictated by the game flow.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve uncovered throughout the site over the preceding four to five weeks, this Bills offense is not the same unit we grew accustomed to attacking with last year. Bankable weekly volume is a bit more convoluted than it has been in the past with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and the expanded role of breakout tight end Dawson Knox. Brian Daboll has shown more muted offensive aggression as far as late-game play calling goes when games have been in hand, and we’ve seen a higher emphasis on the run game in the red zone this season (37.5% rush score rate, compared to 25.37% last year). To put that in another way, we know this pass offense is still one of the top units in the league, but we can’t just close our eyes and click on Josh Allen and two of his pass-catchers and call it good as we could last year. We need to be methodical in our approach to this team now. The Bills run the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play in the league this year, with a blistering pace in games they trail (first-ranked 19.89 seconds per play). They’ve also run the fifth most offensive plays per game at 67.1 and rank fifth in total offense per game (401.1 yards per game).

On the ground, the matchup yields a slightly above average 4.31 net-adjusted line yards metric, but from a macro perspective, the matchup hinges a good deal around the health of Colts linebacker Darius Leonard. Zach Moss and Devin Singletary continue to operate in a tightly split backfield, each typically seeing 45-55% snap rates on a standard week. Matt Breida entered the conversation last week, scoring two touchdowns on only eight offensive snaps. Both Moss and Singletary are each typically good for only eight to 12 running back opportunities on a standard week and shouldn’t warrant our consideration this week in a neutral-at-best matchup.

The money is made (figuratively and literally) through the Bills pass offense, which currently ranks sixth in the NFL in total pass yards per game at 279.2. Week 10 marked just the third time all season that Stefon Diggs out-snapped “Queen Chess piece” Emmanuel Sanders, the latter of whom has been deployed all over the formation this year. Keep an eye on the injury status of slot-man Cole Beasley, who missed practice on Wednesday with his ribs ailment. I’d expect it to simply be a case of load management, but it is a situation worth monitoring, nonetheless. We’ll get into the matchups for each pass-catcher in the DFS Interpretation section below. WR4 Gabriel Davis continues to play a moderate role as a situational receiver, while Isaiah McKenzie typically sees 20-25% of the offensive snaps himself. Breakout tight end Dawson Knox has gotten by on an unsustainable touchdown rate and typically sees between four and five targets.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bills should have no problem passing against a very pass-funnel Colts defense, and while the Colts are presented with a difficult matchup on the offensive side of the ball, they create enough pressure over multiple levels that we’re likely to see them generate some level of success here. Although the chances of this game erupting for a “had to have it” game environment are fairly low, we should see this game played close throughout. The deciding factor may very well be which team wins the turnover battle, as each offense simply doesn’t turn the ball over at a high rate but each defense is built to attack the football in every area (aggressively pursue generating turnovers). So while the actual likeliest game flow depends heavily on if and when one of these defenses can force a timely turnover, we should see a tightly contested game here. That makes nailing down the likeliest game flow rather difficult, but gives us a game environment where we are likely to be able to narrow down the likeliest flow of volume to a point where select players should warrant our consideration from this game.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Josh Allen:

  • IND has given up season-best passing days to Russ, Tanny (x2), Brissett, Lamar, Josh Johnson
  • IND does have the most forced TOs (21) behind 10 INT & 11 FF
  • Josh Allen has 6 INT & 2 FL in 9 games
  • Allen has four games of 300+ pass yds, and three more of 300+ total yds
  • Allen has 8+ rush TDs in every season
  • Allen’s rushing DK pts in 2021 of 4.4 // 3.5 // 6.9 // 4.1 // 11.9 // 2.6 // 11.5 // 5.0 // 0.3
  • QB rushing vs IND: Tanny (56, 26) // Lamar (62) // Lawrence (33)


  • IND has allowed 16 WR TDs in 10 games
  • IND’s success vs JAC jumped them from the 8th highest success rate and 9th highest yds/att allowed to WRs, to just the 15th & 16th highest
  • Top WR vs IND by week: Lockett (4:100:2) // Kupp (9:163:2) // Westbrook (4:53:1) // Parker (4:77:1) // Hollywood (9:125:2) // Cooks (9:89) // Deebo (7:100:1) // AJ Brown (10:155:1) // Moore (7:84:2) // MJJ (2:35)
  • 11 WRs have 60+ yds vs IND
  • 60+ yd games: Diggs (8/9) // Beasley (4/9) // Sanders (4/9)
  • WRs with 8+ tg vs IND: Kupp (9:163:2) // Parker (4:77:1) // Brown (9:125:2) // Cooks (9:89) // Deebo (7:100:1) // AJ Brown (10:155:1) // Moore (7:84:2), Cole (5:66) // Viska (3:15)
  • 8+ tg games: Diggs (7/9) // Beasley (5/9) // Sanders (3/9)
  • Diggs has 10+ targets in 16/28 games with BUF and 8+ targets in 8 more (5, 6, 7, 7 in the only games below 8)
  • Diggs has 11 games of 100+ yds with BUF, and 3 more with 90+ yds
  • Diggs has just three 20+ pt DK scores this year (21.4, 23.9, 33.2), and only last week’s even reached 3x his W11 salary
  • Diggs now has 25+ DK pts with BUF in 8 of 28 games, but just one so far in 2021
  • Beasley has three games of 80+ yds this season (11:98, 7:88:1, 10:110), but also five games with a combined 105 yds
  • Sanders’ role as the intermediate/deep WR has led to two scores of 20+ DK pts (26.4, 20.4), both in which he caught 2 TDs
  • Sanders has maxed out at 5 rec this season

Dawson Knox:

  • IND has allowed the 3rd highest success rate to TEs
  • Notable TEs vs IND: Everett (2:20:1) // Higbee (1:8) // Gesicki (5:57:1) // Andrews (11:147:2) // Akins (4:41) // Swaim (3:27, 4:23:1) // Griffin (4:28:1) // Arnold (5:67)
  • Knox targets: 4, 3, 5, 8, 4, 3, 1
  • Knox scored 5 TDs from W2-W5


  • Season high in DK pts: Moss (18.1) // Singletary (17.1) // Breida (19)
  • Season high in touches: Moss (16) // Singletary (16) // Breida (6)
  • Moss/Singletary season-highs both came in first MIA blowout, Breida’s in NYJ blowout
  • IND has allowed the 3rd fewest DK pts/g to RBs

Carson Wentz:

  • Wentz’s 2+ pass TDs streak of 6 games ended last week vs JAC, the 32nd ranked pass def by DVOA heading into that game
  • BUF ranks 1st in def pass DVOA
  • Mahomes & White are the only QBs with more than just 216 pass yds vs BUF (272, 251), and they needed 54 & 44 pass att to even get there
  • Wentz pass att: 38 // 31 // 37 // 32 // 35 // 20 // 26 // 51 // 30 // 34
  • BUF has allowed just 6 pass TDs to 15 INT
  • Wentz has only thrown 3 INT this year
  • Wentz went for 172:1:0 vs McDermott’s 2019 BUF Def


  • BUF has allowed the fewest DK pts to WRs: 27.2 DK pts/g
  • BUF has allowed: three WR TDs, zero 20+ pt DK scores, six WRs of 60+ yds
  • The six WRs: McLaurin (4:62) // Hardman (9:76), Hill (7:63) // AJ Brown (7:91) // Parker (8:85) // Davis (5:93)
  • Pittman’s games of 70+ yds: LAR (8:123) // BAL (6:89:1) // SF (4:105:1) // TEN (6:68, 10:86:2) // NYJ (5:64:1) // JAC (5:71)
  • IND WRs vs BUF in 2020: Pittman (5:90) // Pascal (3:37:1) // Hilton (2:32)

Jonathan Taylor:

  • BUF has allowed the fewest DK pts/g to RBs (17.8); NOR at 19 pts/g next closest
  • Only TB & NOR have allowed fewer RB rush yds, and no team has allowed fewer than the 5 RB TDs allowed by BUF
  • Taylor’s rush att: 17 // 15 // 10 // 16 // 15 // 14 // 18 // 16 // 19 // 21
  • RBs with 10+ rush att vs BUF: Najee (16:45) // Gibson (12:31) // Henry (20:143:3) // Gaskin (12:36) // Hyde (21:67) // Carter (16:39:1)
  • Only five RBs have topped 50 total yds vs BUF
  • Taylor has topped 50 total yds in every game, and 100+ total yds in 8/10 games
  • Taylor has scored 10 TDs in the last seven games
  • The 5 RB TDs allowed by BUF were a 72-yd screen to Gibson, 3 from Henry, garbage time GL score from Carter
  • Taylor did have a 70+ yd screen TD in a game this year himself
  • Taylor has 50 RZ rush att; Henry’s 32 are the next closest
  • Taylor has 16 rush att inside-5 (4 TDs); Harris’s 10 are the next closest
  • 31% of Taylor’s rush att have come in the red-zone

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
14.75) at

Browns (

Over/Under 42.5


Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • If Nick Chubb misses, D’Ernest Johnson will again be a “must play.”
  • The Browns defense is underpriced for a home date with the Lions.
  • D’Andre Swift is likely to see usage similar to Weeks 1-7 with the return of Williams.
  • T.J. Hockenson has been more involved in weeks following his disappearing acts.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions aren’t going to go 0-16! A collective half sigh of relief must’ve been felt in Detroit as they avoided suffering the indignity of being the only franchise to go 0-16 twice. Is 0-15-1 better? It’s a little better. Dan Campbell deserves credit since unlike the 2008 Lions who at least had Calvin Johnson, the 2021 Lions truly have an 0-16 roster. Dan Campbell is now outperforming his talent. The Lions aren’t rolling over either, playing most of their games close, and pushing several playoff teams to the brink. They are loaded with draft picks, and it will be fun in the coming years to see if Campbell can turn this franchise around.

This week they face a Browns team that is weak against the pass (26th in DVOA), and above-average against the run (12th in DVOA), creating a pass funnel defense. The Lions seem to come into every game ready to brawl, more than with a specific plan to attack the team they are playing. They’ll basically try whatever is working and keep at that approach if it’s keeping them in the game. They’ll also cut bait and totally switch styles if what they’re doing isn’t working. This is evidenced by their normally slow pace (27th situational neutral) but their willingness to throw caution into the wind and speed up (10th in pace when behind) if they’re trying to catch up. They showed this tendency last week when they slammed Swift into the relative strength of the Steelers defense 33 times (averaging only 3.9 YPC) because, hey, it was keeping the game close! This game profiles as a game the Lions are likely to be losing, so there is a good chance of another 35 passing attempts or more for the Lions. Further complicating matters is the health of Jared Goff, who looks likely to play through an injury.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns come into this game a middling 5-5, disappointing against expectations after a 3-1 start, and currently sitting in the basement of the AFC North. The Browns have built the most effective running game in the NFL, behind an elite O-line and two of the best backs in the league. Unfortunately, their coaching staff continues to squander this massive advantage, and Baker Mayfield has looked more like a game manager than a franchise QB. Further highlighting this coaching staff’s inability to maximize their talent is the departure of Odell Beckham. OBJ passed the eye test in a Rams uniform, and his Dad politely pointed out on social media that he was routinely open and never got the ball. Kevin Stefanski needs to turn this season around or he might rightly be shown the door.

It’s no secret by now how the Browns want to attack. They play slowly (28th situational neutral pace) and run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. Mayfield has been held under 33 attempts in every game this year, including back-to-back 21 attempt games. The Lions talent deficient defense is equally bad against the pass (28th in DOVA), as the run (29th in DVOA), and there is no reason for the Browns to deviate from their preferred method of attack. It is easy to predict with high confidence that the Browns will slam their running game down the Lions throats all afternoon.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 44 point total and sets up as a potential blowout spot (aren’t all Lions games) as the Browns are well-positioned to be able to move the ball against Detriot’s poor run D. Vegas has installed the Browns as a large 10 point home favorite, and in these spots we normally must worry about QBs/WRs sitting in the fourth quarter. Here, we know the Browns are going to run the ball all game, regardless of the scoreboard. The most likely game flow is highly likely, which has the Browns running all over the Lions from start to finish, with the scrappy Lions trying to pass to catch up late, before ultimately taking another loss.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Vegas total of 45 tied for fourth lowest in Week 11
  • 10 point spread is the third largest
  • DET’s 17.5 implied total is second lowest
  • CLE’s 27.5 implied total is tied for fourth highest
  • Per numberFire, DET ranks 23rd in adjusted seconds per play and 31st in adjusted pass rate
  • CLE ranks 28th in adjusted seconds per play and 27th in adjusted pass rate
  • DET allows 28.9 ppg, third worst in the league

Jared Goff

  • Ranks 28th in PFF passing grade
  • 6.3 YPA ranks 35th and 6.4 ADoT ranks 36th
  • Hasn’t hit 20+ DK pts since Week 2
  • DK log from Week 3 onwards: 9.08 // 18.76 // 8.12 // 9.18 // 13.02 // 8.88 // 4.56
  • CLE ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (21.2)

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: TJ Hockenson 84.1% // Kalif Raymond 74.5% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 64.6% // Trinity Benson 37.5%
  • Target share: Hockenson 19.1% // Raymond 13.7% // Amon 13.1% // Benson 5.4%
  • Among still active WRs, Raymond still holds the only two 15+ DK pt efforts: 19.6 // 20.6
  • CLE ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.6)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Justin Jefferson 20.4 // DeAndre Hopkins 20.5 // Brandin Cooks 22.8 // Kendrick Bourne 24.1 // Mike Williams 39.5 // Tyreek Hill 40.1
  • All of those players rank among the top 32 WRs in PFF receiving grade
  • DET’s best, still active WR in PFF receiving grade ranks 70th (Amon)
  • Among qualified TEs, Hockenson ranks sixth in air yards, sixth in target share, fifth in air yard market share, and sixth in WOPR
  • His 11.9 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • CLE ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Travis Kelce 25.6 // Cole Kmet 2.1 // Donald Parham 12.9 / Noah Fant 8.9 // Pat Freiermuth 14.4 // Hunter Henry 19.7

D’Andre Swift

  • Among all qualified RBs, Swift ranks third in target share, fourth in WOPR, and fifth in RBOPR
  • His rush share ranks 14th and goal line rush share ranks 21st
  • He leads all RBs with seven targets per game
  • 18.4 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • CLE ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (23)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Javonte Williams 17.2 // Najee Harris 21 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Austin Ekeler 33.9

Baker Mayfield

  • Baker’s health is in question as of Wednesday evening
  • Ranks 22nd in PFF passing grade
  • 8.1 YPA ranks tied for seventh and 9.3 ADoT ranks tied for sixth
  • Only one 20+ DK pt performance (26 pts), the Week 5 game @ LAC that ended in a 42-47 loss
  • Otherwise he hasn’t hit 19 DK pts
  • His 14.74 DK ppg ranks down with the two Trevors (Siemian and Lawrence)
  • DET ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.8)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Lamar Jackson 20.28 // Joe Burrow 23.84 // Matthew Stafford 30.16

CLE Passing Attack

  • CLE utilizes 13 personnel (3 TEs) at the highest rate in the league by far at 21% (league average is 4% and no other team is in the double digits) 
  • Since OBJ’s exit from the team following Week 8, here are the snap totals: Donovan Peoples-Jones 79 // Jarvis Landry 79 // Austin Hooper 72 // David Njoku 70 // Harrison Bryant 48 // Anthony Schwartz 37 // Rashard Higgins 29
  • Target totals from Week 8 onwards: Landry 10 // D’Ernest Johnson 8 // DPJ 8 // Hooper 7 // Njoku 7 // Bryant 4 // Schwartz 2 // Higgins 1
  • Landry’s DK log: 19.4 // 1.9 // 8.7 // 11 // 4.1 // 6.6
  • DPJ’s health is up in the air as of Wednesday, but he has two of the three highest DK scores from the WR room: 16.6 // 29.1
  • Schwartz and Higgins have yet to hit 12 DK pts
  • DET ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.8)
  • On the season, Hooper has an 11.9% target share and Njoku has a 10.5%
  • Njoku had the outlier score of 30.9 in Week 5 (the second highest TE score league wide this year)
  • Otherwise, no TE has cracked 13 pts
  • DET ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.9)


  • CLE is tied with BAL for the most rushing yards per game, first in yards per attempt, and tied for first in rushing TDs per game (1.6)
  • DET allows the third most rushing yards per game
  • Chubb is likely to return, taking back the reins from D’Ernest Johnson
  • Chubb’s 18.3 DK ppg ranks ninth at the position
  • DET ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (30.5)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 20.3 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
25.75) at

Jaguars (

Over/Under 45.0


Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • San Francisco starting running back Elijah Mitchell underwent a procedure on Tuesday to address a finger fracture but is apparently not ruled out yet.
  • JaMycal Hasty missed practice to start the week with an ankle injury.
  • Jacksonville starting running back James Robinson added an ankle injury to his heel injury and missed practice on Wednesday.
  • Both teams see their situation-neutral rush rates skyrocket if playing with a lead, as each team ranks in the top three in the league in rush rates with a lead (SF: 60%; JAX: 62%).

How SAN FRANSICO Will Try To Win ::

The best glimpse into how the 49ers would like to try to win games comes by examining their run-pass rates with a lead. San Francisco ranks third in the NFL this year in rush rates with a lead at 60% (interestingly enough, Jacksonville ranks first in this metric at 62%). Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranks third to last in the league in intended air yards per game, ahead of only Jameis Winston and Ben Roethlisberger. On the defensive side of the ball, the Niners continue their “blanket defense” approach, focusing on strength against the run, a swarming second level, and a back end that limits depth of target. When we combine these ideas, we’re left with a team that attempts to win games by limiting splash plays against on defense and building its offense around the run and ball-out-quick to its primary playmakers (Deebo Samuel and George Kittle).

The run game brings a bit of uncertainty this week with the news that Elijah Mitchell underwent a procedure on Tuesday to surgically repair a fracture in his finger. All early week news from the Niners is that they expect Mitchell to play this weekend. Furthering the unknowns is the uncertainty surrounding pass-catching running back JaMycal Hasty, who followed up a missed game in Week 10 with a missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury. In all, I would expect Mitchell to play but see a limited pass game role with his injured finger, while it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hasty miss a second consecutive game, leaving Jeff Wilson, Jr. as the primary change of pace option. The matchup yields a slightly below average 4.12 net-adjusted line yards metric, while the Jaguars cede the fifth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backfields.

We’ve finally seen this pass-catching corps return to where we thought it would be entering the season, with tight end George Kittle fully healthy and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk seemingly out of the doghouse. The Niners run 11-personnel at a bottom-five rate this season, instead utilizing 21-personnel at the league’s highest rate (two running backs). Often we find that increased 21-personnel rate comes through the presence of fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who has played more than 40% of the offensive snaps in every game since Week 1, including six games of 55% or more. That gives us an extremely concentrated pass-catching corps consisting primarily of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, with rotational pieces of Trent Sherfield and Jauan Jennings. The Jaguars present the Niners with an extreme pass-funnel matchup (seventh in DVOA against the run and 31st in DVOA against the pass), but offensive tendencies limit the appeal based on expected game environment and to-date pass volume (over 30 pass attempts in only two games this season). As such, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Aiyuk will require efficiency and touchdowns to return GPP-worthy scores, which is boosted by the matchup.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars are basically akin to the Batman villain Two-Face with respect to their play-calling tendencies and how the team is run. With a lead this season, the Jaguars lead the league in rush rates at 62%. When trailing, however, they rank 10th in the league in pass rates at 69%. Their pace of play jumps all over the place as well, from a situation-neutral value of 30.70 seconds per play (15th) to a 22nd-ranked 30.09 when leading by seven or more points, to an eighth-ranked 23.93 seconds per play when trailing by seven or more points. Overall, their pace of play on the season ranks first at just 25.86 seconds. Put this all together and how Jacksonville will try to win and the ways they have been forced to try to win are far from equal. Consider the Jaguars a team highly reactive and reliant on game flow as far as tendencies are concerned.

Before dealing with multiple injuries, running back James Robinson controlled this backfield with standard snap rates in the 65%-85% range. That has changed over the previous three games with Robinson dealing with a heel injury (has since added a “minor ankle injury” to the fold, as well). Over the first six weeks of the season, Robinson averaged 17.67 running back opportunities per game. Since the team’s Week 7 bye, Robinson has missed one game and played only 11% of the offensive snaps in another. His only healthy game since the team’s bye came in Week 10, where he saw a 59% snap rate and 17 running back opportunities. If he can take the field this week, the likeliest range of outcomes puts him in the 17-21 running back opportunity range, with game flow likely to dictate his receiving totals. Behind Robinson, the ageless Carlos Hyde operates as the primary backup, typically seeing between 25% and 35% of the offensive snaps, but capable of filling the lead back role should Robinson miss or be limited. The pure rushing matchup yields a slightly below average 4.155 net-adjusted line yards metric and should very much be considered a strength-on-strength matchup for the Jags.

The pass-catching corps has settled into a tight distribution of opportunities after the team added Marvin Jones, Jr. in the offseason, traded for tight end Dan Arnold after Week 3, and saw DJ Chark lost for the season during Week 4. Marvin Jones, Jr., Laviska Shenault, Jr., Jamal Agnew, and Dan Arnold now operate in “majority share” roles, each playing lead roles at their respective positions. Jones operates as the intermediate-to-deep threat with an aDOT of 12.1, Jamal Agnew operates in a short-to-intermediate role with an aDOT of 7.8, while Laviska Shenault operates in an underneath role with an aDOT of 6.6. Dan Arnold’s aDOT falls just below league average at 5.8 yards. Consider this offense one that is still trying to find their identity with all the new faces in the building, as far as coaching personnel goes. With the previous discussion of tendencies in mind, it should make sense that rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had an extremely wide range of outcomes as far as his pass attempts have gone, with two games below 26 pass attempts, four games between 33 and 35 pass attempts, one game of 41 pass attempts, and two games of 51 or more (!!!) pass attempts on the season. The 49ers have continued their “blanket defense” design under first-year defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans (following the departure of Robert Saleh), providing a strong defensive front against the run and a secondary designed to limit downfield passing against and “swarm tackle” after the catch. On the season, the 49ers have forced the second-fewest air yards, behind only the Bills.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Instead of trying to beat our collective heads against a cinderblock wall trying to figure out the exact likeliest scenario here, it is much more optimal to try and decipher what scenarios could evolve from this one, and who would benefit the most in each case. Since each team would prefer to run the football for as long as they are afforded the opportunity to do so, and since each team primarily attacks the short-to-intermediate areas of the field and relies on yards after the catch through the air, and since the Jaguars have shown play-calling tendencies that are drawn to the extremes (as far as run-pass rates are concerned), the lone scenario where we can confidently predict volume for each side is one where the 49ers are able to control the flow. We know the Jaguars would respond with elevated pass rates and an increased pace of play in this scenario, resulting in bankable volume for the Jacksonville pass-catchers in addition to a bump in expected offensive plays run from scrimmage and volume for the San Francisco run game. All other game flows, environments, and scenarios lead to a wide range of outcomes as far as volume and expected production goes, so it doesn’t make much sense to dissect each here, as they would leave little room for fantasy interest.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • Seventh highest total (45.5) with SF favored by 6.5
  • Line has moved 2.5 pts towards SF
  • SF ranks first in RZ scoring percentage (79.17)
  • JAX D ranks 15th in RZ scoring percentage (58.82)
  • SF ranks 16th in pts/g // JAX ranks 27th in pts/g allowed (25.8)
  • JAX ranks 31st in pts/g (16.6) // SF is T-17th in pts/g allowed (23.6)
  • SF gains 6.0 yds/play (7th most) // JAX allows 5.8 yds/play (25th)
  • SF is in the NFC Wild Card hunt at 4-5 (LAR 7-3,NO 5-4, CAR 5-5, MIN 4-5, ATL 4-5)

Jimmy Garoppolo:

  • Jimmy has 6 total TDs in his last three games (4 pass, 2 rush)
  • 20+ DK pts in two of eight games (Weeks 8 & 9)
  • 300+ pass yds in Weeks 1, 8, & 9
  • He’s $5.6k this week and has been in the $5.4k-$5.7k range all season
  • JAX allows 19.8 DK pts/g to QBs, 12th most

49ers RBs

  • Jeff Wilson played no snaps in his first game this season two weeks ago but 22 of 68 last week
  • JaMycal Hasty played no snaps last week w/ Wilson playing
  • Elijah Mitchell saw 27 atts in a blowout win over LAR last week
  • Mitchell atts: 27 // 8 // 18 // 18 // DNP // 9 (Trey Lance had 16 atts) // Bye // DNP // 17 // 19
  • Mitchell ($5.8k) is tied this week for his season high price
  • He has 12 RZ rush atts but only 3 TDs even though SF ranks first in RZ scoring percent
  • JAX allows 24.3 DK pts/g to RBs, 16th


  • Deebo Samuel tgts w/ George Kittle back: 5 // 9
  • He had five rush atts last week w/ 36 yds & 1 TD
  • Samuel has three 30+ DK pts games & two other game with 20+ DK pts
  • Tgts: 5 // 9 // 9 // 11 // Bye // 9 // 13 // 10 // 8 // 12
  • Samuel has broke 100 rec yds in four games & has two others w/ 90+
  • He’s ranked second in rec yds/g (108.8), first in YAC (519 in only nine games), seventh in tgts/g (9.6), & second in WR DK pts/g (23.3)
  • Aiyuk tgts: 4 // 8 // 7 // 1 // Bye // 4 // 3 // 6 // 2 // 0
  • He’s priced as the 5th highest WR this week (7.8k) & tied for his season high price
  • Aiyuk tgts last three: 4 (blowout win) // 8 // 7
  • JAX allows 39.3 DK pts/g to WRs, eighth most

George Kittle:

  • Kittle since return: 5:50:1 TD, 7 tgts // 6:101:1TD, 8 tgts
  • He’s priced $100 cheaper than his season high of $6.4k which came back in Week 2
  • $6.3k makes him the second highest priced TE behind only Travis Kelce ($7.1k)
  • JAX allows 14.2 DK pts/g to TEs, 11th most

Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lawrence is the cheapest he’s been all season ($5.2k)
  • He has two games of 20+ DK pts but none in his last four
  • TD:INT ratio: 8:9
  • JAX ranks 11th in pass atts/g (37.0) but 24th in pass yds/g (213.7)
  • SF allows the fifth least pass atts/g (32.2) & fifth least pass yds/g (208.7)
  • Rushing: 4.11 atts/g // 18.8 yds/g // 2 total rush TDs
  • SF allows 21.0 DK pts/g to QBs, 10th most


  • Tgts: Marvin Jones: 66 // Laviska Shenult-57 // Jamal Agnew-36
  • Of eight total JAX rec TDs, Jones has 3
  • Jones ($5.2k) is the cheapest he’s been since Week 3
  • He has the only JAX 100 yd rec game which came Week 6 (Shenault had 99 Week 4)
  • RZ tgts: Jones-7 // Agnew-4 // Shenault-4
  • SF allows 35.5 DK pts/g to WRs, 11th fewest


  • Robinson has 6 RZ rush TDs on 19 RZ rush atts
  • He’s fifth in tgts (29) while missing one game
  • Three games of 20+ DK pts coming three weeks in a row (Weeks 3-5)
  • SF allows the 24.4 DK pts/g to RBs, 14th most


  • Dan Arnold is third in team tgts in just six games w/ JAX (40)
  • Tgts: 8 // 7 // 10 // 5 // 8 // 2
  • Other JAX TEs have received just three tgts since his arrival
  • He’s priced at $4.1k, the highest he’s been this season by $400
  • SF allows 9.9 DK pts to TEs, ninth least

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
17.25) at

Titans (

Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Houston is coming off a bye and, since a Week 1 victory over the Jaguars, have lost eight straight games. Of those games, only one was within one score.
  • Houston’s defense has actually been pretty solid while the offense has been the worst in the league.
  • Tennessee has continued their string of success even as they are still finding their post-Derrick Henry identity.
  • This game pits two relatively slow paced teams against each other who are both short on playmakers.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston is a pretty straightforward team to evaluate. They are slightly above league-average in situation-neutral pass rate and slightly below average in situation-neutral pace — their issues lie in personnel, talent, and execution. Houston’s offensive line PFF ranks are 27th in pass-blocking grade and 32nd in run blocking. Their skill players consist of journeyman veterans and/or young, inexperienced fringe NFL prospects. This combination of poor blocking and lack of playmakers makes it nearly impossible to create offense, as Houston ranks 31st in DVOA for both rush offense and passing offense. While Houston is “trying to win games,” really what they are doing is trying to keep their heads above water and fighting for jobs for next year (for both coaches and players).

Houston has not had over 15 running back rush attempts in any of their last three games, while they have failed to score double-digit points in five of nine games. Tennessee is best attacked on the ground, but Houston’s complete ineptitude in run blocking, along with below-average talent at running back, will make rushing success difficult to count on. Houston will likely continue a balanced attack and hope that Tyrod Taylor’s legs, a big play from Brandin Cooks, or a couple of broken plays can keep them in it.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee is trying to establish its identity in a post-Derrick Henry world. Over the last two weeks, the defense has stepped up and led them to victories with impressive performances against the Rams and Saints. In each of the last two weeks, the Titans took control early and did not have to ask much of the offense, which allowed them to remain conservative and run-heavy. This week’s game sets up a similar script, however, meaning we will likely have to wait at least another week to see what it takes to push this offense out of its comfort zone.

Houston’s defense is actually pretty respectable, ranking 17th out of 32 teams in defensive DVOA. The problem is the offense’s complete inability to move the ball or sustain drives, which gives opponents ample opportunity to score points, along with 17 turnovers through nine games leading to short fields. Tennessee is lacking in playmakers but has an above-average quarterback, high-end wide receiver, and a good all-around scheme. Houston’s defense has shown their greatest vulnerability in the running game, and Tennessee will likely lean into that while counting on their defense to feast on the porous Texans offense. When Tennessee does throw the ball, we should expect AJ Brown to feast on the 32nd graded coverage unit by PFF. Tennessee likely won’t need to throw with heavy volume, but we should expect high efficiency and potentially explosiveness when they do.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams are bottom-10 in situation-neutral pace, suggesting a game with relatively low play volume. Houston is not a great running team but will be encouraged to keep things on the ground rather than challenging the #2 graded secondary by PFF. Tennessee ranks 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and in a game that they are heavily favored, are likely to control how it is played and will attack in their most comfortable, familiar fashion — high run rate with some play action and bootleg passing concepts mixed in to make the defense pay for over pursuing the running game.

The combination of these factors sets up a slow-paced game with both teams running at a high rate — meaning the clock will be running and teams will be milking the play clock on both sides. Houston will eventually need to turn more pass-heavy as they fall further behind but are unlikely to see much success in that regard due to their lack of blocking and talent. This means that the Titans will get the ball back quickly after short Texans drives and run the clock even more. Don’t be surprised if this game is done 20 to 30 minutes before the rest of the early games on Sunday.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Ryan Tannehill:

  • TEN offensive pts: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34 // 21 // 23
  • HOU has allowed the 4th most points
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 4 of his 27 starts since 2020
  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
  • That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • HOU has allowed 30+ pts to CLE, BUF, IND, ARI, LAR
  • Only BUF and ARI have scored more pts than TEN from that group
  • HOU ranks a solid 14th in def pass DVOA
  • HOU has allowed 21.2 DK pts/g to QBs (8th most)

AJ Brown:

  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80) // Kupp (115:1), Van (88) // Waddle (83)
  • Brown has 70+ yds in 3 of 8 games this year
  • HOU has allowed four 20+ DK pt scores to WRs
  • HOU has allowed the 2nd highest success rate to WRs
  • Brown vs HOU: 8:114:1 // 4:124:1 // 5:58:2 // 10:151:1


  • Touches without Henry (2g): McNichols (11 att, 6 tg) // Peterson (18 att, 2 tg) // Foreman (16 att, 2 tg)
  • 15 RBs in nine games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU

Tyrod Taylor:

  • Tyrod’s 2.5 games: 291:2, 4:40 // 125:1, 1:25:1 // 240:0:3, 3:23
  • TEN has jumped all the way from 27th to 9th in def pass DVOA after facing KC, IND, LAR, NOR the past month (8 INT in the last 7 games)
  • 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1) // Lawrence (273:1:1) // Allen (353:3:1) // KC (288:0:1) // Wentz (231:3:2) // Stafford (294:1:2) // Siemian (298:2)
  • QB rushing vs TEN: Kyler (20:1) // Russ (16) // Lawrence (28:1) // Allen (26) // Mahomes (35) // Taysom (23)

Brandin Cooks:

  • Cooks in 5.5 games with Mills: 4:28:1 // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21 // 6:83:1
  • Cooks in 2.5 games with Taylor: 5:132 // 5:50 // 6:56
  • HOU WR tg with all of Amendola, Collins, Cooks playing last month: Cooks (7, 6, 13) // Collins (5, 4, 3) // Amendola (5, 5, 7)
  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021 (46.9)
  • Nine WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5)
  • TEN has allowed 14 WR TDs

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
24) at

Vikings (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • The Packers are in a mid-season hurt locker as far as injuries go to the offense. All of David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones (duh), Allen Lazard, Aaron Rodgers, and Malik Taylor have yet to practice as of Thursday.
  • The Vikings rank tied for first in giveaways per game, while the Packers rank tied for fifth; neither offense gives the ball away!
  • Both defenses rank 25th or worse in red zone touchdown rate allowed, with the Vikings checking in at 68.00% and the Packers checking in at 73.08%.
  • One of the better expected game environments on the slate.

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Aaron Rodgers “F U” tour continues in Week 10 as the Packers visit the Vikings. Tied for the best record in the league with the Cardinals and Titans, the Packers come into Week 11 with a clear identity. Their prevent-zone defense has rounded into form as the year has progressed, allowing Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers to control games through a methodical and slow-paced offense, designed to wear teams down as the game goes on. Although the Vikings have generated 29 sacks on the season, they have forced only 12 total turnovers over their first nine games and the Packers rank fifth in the league in giveaways. Expect the Packers to largely find success moving the ball in a neutral-on-paper matchup.

Aaron Jones is out. Kylin Hill is out (somehow, the industry isn’t talking about this). Patrick Taylor is the only other running back on the active roster currently, with Ryquell Armstead and Kerrith Whyte currently the only running backs on the practice squad. This. Is. Dillon’s. Backfield. The matchup against the Vikings yields an absolutely elite 4.725 net-adjusted line yards against the team ranked dead last in the NFL in the metric. The Packers’ high marks have also come with a piecemealed offensive line that has seen its fair share of injuries and change this season. Not much else to say with this one, to be honest.

The passing game sees a slew of injuries to regular contributors, as Allen Lazard and Malik Taylor have yet to practice this week. Lazard split the WR2 role with Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the two games without Robert Tonyan, so his absence would be of particular importance considering the necessary shift to heavier 11-personnel alignments seen over the previous two games. Davante Adams remains the alpha and the omega of this pass-catching corps, and would likely be counted on even more should Lazard miss as their route trees and responsibilities overlap a good bit. There are very few players in the NFL that can realistically approach 15-20 targets in a single game (well, other than Najee Harris lolz), and Davante Adams is one of them. The tight end unit has devolved into a three-headed blocking unit made up of veteran Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, and Tyler Davis. The Vikings do an excellent job of limiting completions against, ranking fourth in the league in completion rate allowed at just 61.56%, but they don’t play Davante Adams every week, and they allow a well below average 10.9 yards per completion on the season.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have proven time and time again that they aim to be a team built around minimizing mistakes, limiting pass production against via a complex zone scheme, and allowing the game to come to them. A massive eight of their nine games so far this season have been decided by seven points or less (the only game that was decided by more than one score was a 30-17 win over the Seahawks). That is absolutely incredible! Kirk Cousins has turned the ball over only three times all season (two picks and one fumble lost), which allows this team to remain in almost every game. Their moderate situation-neutral rush-pass rates indicate a team looking to control the time of possession battle and capitalize on their opponents’ mistakes. Finally, this is one of the more concentrated offenses in the league, with only four regular offensive play-maker contributors (three if you don’t want to count Ty Conklin, which is valid).

This backfield is Dalvin Cook’s, and a good chunk of the offense is designed around his effectiveness. Dalvin averages the third most running back touches per game at 19.8, and we saw his targets tick back up to the levels we’ve grown accustomed to last week (four to six targets is a viable weekly expectation). The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.385 net-adjusted line yards metric in one of the more run-funnel spots the Vikings will see all year. All of that to say, Dalvin Cook is in a great spot this week. Behind Dalvin, expect Alexander Mattison to be used sparingly in a change of pace role.

The passing game runs primarily through two bodies in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, both of whom play almost every offensive snap each week. KJ Osborn typically resides in the 50-60% snap rate range, with the pass-catching corps rounded out by near every-down tight end Ty Conklin. That’s it, and that’s the beauty of this offense. Justin Jefferson’s above-average 11.6 aDOT and above-average 69.6% catch rate come together to highlight one of the league’s top up and coming young wide receivers. What is sure to be missed by the field are the 15 red zone targets Jefferson has seen this season, which ranks ninth in the league amongst all pass-catchers (four more than his teammate, Adam Thielen). Thielen’s shorter area role (9.5 aDOT) typically requires additional volume and multiple trips to the end zone to reach a GPP-worthy score, but he remains a regular contributor to this offense. KJ Osborn and Ty Conklin have two combined games of more than seven targets (each with one such game) and should be considered “bet on touchdown variance” pieces.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We’re likely to see a closely contested game in the first half, with each team almost unwilling to make offensive mistakes. It almost doesn’t matter which team asserts themselves first here, as each offense’s play-calling tendencies align almost to a T. Situation-neutral pass rates land at 58% and 57% for the Packers and Vikings, respectively. Pass rates with a lead land at 52% for each team. Pass rates when trailing land are at 59% for Green Bay and 67% for Minnesota. Considering the injuries to the offensive pieces of the Packers, the game environment would reach an optimal scenario should the Packers eventually seize control of the game, forcing the Vikings into elevated pass rates, and raising the fantasy goodness from the game overall. This stands as the likeliest scenario, but we’re likely to see a tightly contested contest in this divisional showdown. When you get two teams that are good at the same things and struggle at similar things together, in a divisional matchup nonetheless, we typically find games where there is a wide range of outcomes as far as actual game flow goes. That said, and bringing this thought full circle, it almost doesn’t matter here as either team is highly unlikely to jump out to a multi-score lead at any point, creating a game environment where each team can continue to run their desired game plan (and making it much more predictable as far as volume and range of outcomes go!). 



DFS+ Interpretation ::

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
20.5) at

Bears (

Over/Under 40.0


Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game is likely to play out at a slow pace
  • Lamar Jackson has the highest raw ceiling on the slate
  • David Montgomery saw 85% of the snaps in his last game and is mispriced for his role
  • The Ravens WRs have an excellent matchup

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 6-3 Ravens are coming off a “mini bye” after a disappointing loss to a Dolphins team they were expected to beat since they were starting a backup QB (Personal side complaint: if Tua Tagovailoa was healthy enough to play, which he clearly was, why didn’t he start the game? Why do teams do that?). Against a mix of Jacoby Brissett and Tua, the Ravens allowed over 300 yards passing, and it was done without (arguably) their best skill position player (Mike Gesicki) catching a pass, and Devante Parker missing the game. The Ravens are a pathetic Steelers tie against the Lions away from having given up control of the AFC North. Jim Harbaugh is one of the better coaches in the NFL, and will have his team ready to play after such a disappointing showing. With ten days to prepare for the Bears, expect a strong game from the Ravens.

The disappointing Bears defense is below average against the pass and run (19th in DVOA/21st in DVOA), which doesn’t present a clear path of least resistance. The Ravens should be fine with that, as they tend to run “their offense” more than adapt for an opponent. The Ravens experience success because their offense is unique, and when it’s run well, it’s difficult to stop. The Bears (like most of the Ravens opponents) will have to alter their defense to try and contain the unique things Lamar Jackson brings to the table, rather than the other way around. Expect the Ravens to attack in their typical manner, using Jackson as a hybrid QB/RB, but being far more willing to let him throw over 40 times if the game requires it than they have been in previous years.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-6 Bears are riding a four-game losing streak against the Packers/Bucs/49ers/Steelers, and while none of those teams are pushovers, only the Steelers game was competitive. This looks like a lost season for Chicago as they try to rebuild around a rookie QB that needs more time before he’s ready for the NFL. Matt Nagy can’t afford to give up, as the Bears are technically only two games out of the Wildcard, and he could lose his job if this year finishes in a disappointing fashion.

The Bears draw a Baltimore defense in Week 11 that has been more reputation that results, showing poorly against the pass (24th in DVOA), while being middling against the run (15th in DVOA). The Ravens are weaker against the pass, but the difference isn’t likely to tilt the Bears away from doing everything they can to hide Justin Fields. Matt Nagy wants his offense to move painfully slow when the game is close (26th situational neutral pace), but speeded up when winning (5th pace when ahead), and slowed back down when losing (25th in pace when behind). Those splits don’t make much sense, except when you factor in that the Bears have been willing to essentially “give up” several times this year when hopelessly behind. Nagy has limited Fields to under 30 attempts in three out of the past four games (Fields had 32 attempts in a 38-3 blowout to the Bucs), and there is every reason to expect Fields to attempt under 30 passes in this spot. The Bears will come out trying to play slowly and run, hoping something breaks their way early to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Ravens have been installed as confident six-point road favorites early in the week, with Vegas expecting them to take care of a Bears team coming off a bye. The Ravens traditionally beat up on bad defenses, and this year’s Bears squad is a bad defense. The Ravens 26 point team total feels low, with the main obstacle to them reaching that threshold being the pace at which this game is likely to play out. The Ravens main weakness has been against the pass, and the Bears set up poorly to exploit that deficiency. The most likely game flow feels highly likely in this spot, with the Ravens pulling ahead in the first half, before cruising to an easy victory late



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • 45.5 Vegas total is the sixth lowest
  • CHI’s 19.5 implied total is tied for the third lowest on the week
  • CHI averages just 16.7 ppg, tied for third lowest
  • CHI ranks 8th in rush yds, 32nd in pass yds, and 31st in total yds
  • BAL ranks 3rd in rush yds, 12th in pass yds, and 4th in total yds
  • BAL’s 26 implied total is tied for ninth highest on the week
  • Both defenses allow 24+ ppg
  • Per numberFire’s adjusted seconds per play metric, CHI ranks second at 28.1 and BAL ranks 30th at 31.8
  • Per numberFire’s adjusted pass rate, CHI ranks 32nd at 46.1% and BAL ranks 30th at 50.9%

Lamar Jackson

  • Ranks 15th in PFF passing grade
  • 7.9 YPA ranks ninth and 10.5 ADoT ranks second
  • Threw for the fewest YPA and received his lowest passing grade of the season in Week 10 @ MIA
  • His 16.42 DK pts in Week 10 were the second lowest output on the season
  • 26.1 DK ppg average ranks third
  • CHI ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20)
  • CHI held Ben Roethlisberger to 16.2 DK pts prior to their Week 10 bye
  • Prior to that, they allowed 30.28 to Jimmy Garoppolo, 24.44 to Tom Brady, and 23.7 to Aaron Rodgers

BAL Passing Attack

  • Personnel usage rate (league average): 11 personnel 38% (59%) // 12 personnel 4% (22%) // 21 personnel 29% (7%) // 22 personnel 19% (3%)
  • Total snaps since Rashod Bateman entered the lineup in Week 6: Marquise Brown 249 // Mark Andrews 221 // Rashod Bateman 196 // Devin Duvernay 155
  • Total targets from Week 6 onwards: Brown 44 // Andrews 31 // Bateman 28 // Duvernay 10
  • Sammy Watkins returned in Week 10, and appeared on 23 snaps with 3 targets
  • Among all WRs, Brown ranks second in total air yards, 11th in target share, 15th in air yard market share, and 13th in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • Browns 18.8 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • Bateman’s had 6-8 targets in every game
  • Bateman’s DK log: 6.9 // 11 // 10.2 // 14
  • Duvernay did not see a snap reduction with Watkins back in Week 10 (from 41 snaps to 44, and 2 targets to 4)
  • Duvernay has only scored double digit DK pts once this year
  • CHI has allowed the highest percentage of their receiving yardage against to go opposing WRs (75.1%), per JJ Zachariason
  • CHI ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (41.5)
  • Among all qualified TEs, Andrews ranks fifth in total air yards, fourth in target share, sixth in air yard market share, and fifth in WOPR
  • His 16 DK ppg ranks second
  • CHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.2)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Tyler Higbee 11.8 // TJ Hockenson 8.2 // Darren Waller 8.5 // Robert Tonyan 3 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3


  • Le’Veon Bell was just cut from the team
  • Snap share: Devonta Freeman 32.7% // Latavius Murray 26.3% // Ty’Son Williams 23.3%
  • Target share: Freeman 5% // Williams 3.4% // Murray 1.6%
  • Touches per game: Murray 10.5 // Freeman 6.8 // Williams 6
  • No BAL RB has scored 20+ DK pts this year
  • There have been only two instances of 15+ pts: Devonta Freeman 16.3 // Ty’Son Williams 18.4
  • CHI ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.8)

Justin Fields

  • On the season, ranks 29th in PFF passing grade
  • Led all QBs in PFF passing grade in his last start (Week 9)
  • DK log: 3.92 // 8.26 // 8.84 // 14.26 // 6.16 // 29.3 // 19.14
  • BAL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.9)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Carson Wentz 26.58 // Justin Herbert 12 // Joe Burrow 30.64 // Kirk Cousins 21.58

CHI Passing Attack

  • Personnel usage rate (league average): 11 personnel 71% (59%) // 12 personnel 25% (22%)
  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 85.5% // Allen Robinson 83.9% // Cole Kmet 83.4% // Marquise Goodwin 43.9%
  • Target share: Mooney 24.9% // Robinson 21.1% // Kmet 18.6% // Goodwin 10.1%
  • Among all WRs, Mooney ranks 18th in target share, 21st in air yard market share, and 21st in WOPR
  • Mooney has three games of 15+ DK pts and is averaging 11.61
  • Robinson has yet to score 11 DK pts and is averaging 7.77
  • Goodwin has yet to hit double digit DK pts and is averaging 3.65
  • BAL ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.4)
  • There have been only three WRs who posted 15+ DK pts vs. BAL: Justin Jefferson 17 // Michael Pittman 20.9 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1
  • Among all qualified TEs, Kmet ranks seventh in total air yards, ninth in target share, eighth in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • Kmet’s DK log: 9.2 // 1 // 2.1 // 1.6 // 4.2 // 8.9 // 9.3 // 5.4 // 14.7
  • BAL ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (18.8)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mo Alie-Cox 8 // Tyler Conklin 9.5 // Jared Cook 12.5 // Noah Fant 16.6 // CJ Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

David Montgomery

  • David Montgomery returned to the lineup in Week 9, before the Week 10 bye
  • Week 9 snap counts: Montgomery 53 // Khalil Herbert 10
  • Week 9 target counts: Montgomery 2
  • Week 9 touches: Montgomery 15 // Herbert 4
  • Last season, Montgomery averaged 18.3 DK ppg (eighth best)
  • Montgomery’s DK log this year: 21.8 // 10.9 // 7.5 // 25.6 // 10
  • BAL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (26.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Josh Jacobs 17 // Dalvin Cook 18.2 // D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 4:05pm Eastern

Bengals (
26.25) at

Raiders (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • If there is a game that has a chance to be overlooked on this slate, this is probably the one.
  • These teams both have below average pass defenses and above average pass rates recently.
  • Cincinnati plays slow, but their elite pass rate recently has covered that up for their game environments.
  • As weather starts to become a factor, this is one of only two games on the main slate being played indoors — with only one game being played in warm weather.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

It has been talked about extensively over the last few weeks, but it is worth mentioning again: the Bengals ran the ball at a very high rate early in the year in an effort to protect Joe Burrow in his return from an ACL tear and over the past few weeks have become extremely pass-heavy. Cincinnati is coming off their bye week, which was preceded by an embarrassing home loss to the Browns and an ugly loss to the bottom-feeding Jets — the bye couldn’t have come at any better of a time. What better recipe to get back on track than a matchup with a Raiders team that is falling apart on and off the field right now?

Las Vegas’ defense is middling against both the pass and the run. It is hard to explain, but looking back at the Raiders’ last few games, it feels like their defense is about as average as it gets and just lets the opposing offense “be who they are.” Here is what I mean by that:

  • The Chiefs were dominant with an explosive passing offense.
  • The Giants failed to put up many yards or threaten for explosive plays but found a way to do just enough to win a low-scoring game.
  • The Eagles were solid when they could stay balanced but struggled when forced into a pass-heavy game script.
  • The Broncos were overly conservative until it was too late and then got a large amount of production in the passing game when they opened things up.
  • The Bears were extremely conservative and played at a slow pace, controlling the ball and relying on their defense to win the game.

Those could all just as easily be general statements about those teams as descriptions of their games against the Raiders. The question then becomes, “if the Raiders let teams ‘be who they are, then who are the Bengals?” 

The Bengals are a team that is playing more aggressively with each passing week and is blessed with a blossoming young star quarterback, a trio of playmaking wide receivers, and an underrated all-purpose running back. I would expect the Bengals to come out of their bye very aggressively and play sharp, unlike some veteran teams who have struggled out of their bye recently (Seahawks, Bucs, Raiders, Vikings). If the Bengals are aggressive and attack the intermediate areas with Tee Higgins and downfield with Ja’Marr Chase, they should move the ball with efficiency on chunk plays.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas has struggled to run the ball all season and will likely face the same difficulties here against a top-10 Bengals rush defense (by DVOA and PFF). The Raiders are getting no push from their 31st graded offensive line, and the loss of Henry Ruggs has only created more traffic in the box for their backs to deal with. Cincinnati has been far more susceptible to the pass this year, making a high volume, short-area passing attack seem to make sense given the Raiders’ personnel.

Las Vegas has scored 26 or more points in all five of their victories this year while scoring 16 points or less in all four of their losses. Perhaps no team is more reliant on their offense to win games for them, yet also, their offense has proved almost incapable of bringing them back in games. All of the Raiders’ wins have been played from ahead or at least kept within one score at all times. This makes sense from a broader perspective, as the Raiders are lacking in talent at the skill positions, so they rely on creative play calling and catching defenses off guard to have high-end offensive outputs. In games where the Raiders fall behind and become predictable, defenses can take away what they are trying to do and tee off on them. The Raiders are much better off in this spot if they attack through the air early, when it is less predictable, in an attempt to build a lead than they would be by playing it safe and then having to turn to the pass if/when they fall behind.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likely game flow here involves both teams turning pass-heavy either by design (Bengals) or out of necessity (Raiders). As you can say with any game with heavy pass volume, the results that will follow are highly variable. The Bengals are highly likely to have success because of the talent and scheme they are bringing in, while the Raiders are not the same team they started the year as but should be able to move the ball with some regularity through the air. The Bengals play at the 31st situation-neutral pace, but their ability to attack through the air at all levels of the field and also use a playmaker out of the backfield should suppress any worries that may cause about the game’s outlook. The only other cause for concern from my perspective is the Raiders’ #1 graded pass rush by PFF against a below-average Bengals offensive line.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • Fourth highest total (49.5) with CIN favored by 1
  • Line has moved 3.5 points towards LV
  • CIN is coming off a blowout loss in Week 9 (16-41) vs CLE & had their bye Week 10
  • Zach Taylor is 0-2 coming off CINs bye week
  • CIN was 5-2 but have lost their last two to drop to 5-4
  • CIN had scored 30+ pts in the three straight before Week 9s 16 pts vs CLE
  • LV has scored 30+ in four of nine but hasn’t topped 16 the past two weeks
  • CIN ranks ninth in pts/g (26.2) // JAX allows the sixth most pts/g (25.8)
  • JAX scores the second fewest pts/g (16.6)  // CIN allows the sixth fewest pts/g (22.6)

Joe Burrow:

  • First game with no TDs came last week
  • Had previously scored 20+ DK pts in five straight 
  • DK pts: 9.4 // 21.3 // 30.6 // 23.8 // 20.3 // 25.3 // 18.6 // 13.3 // 18.6
  • $6.6k is the cheapest he’s been since Week 7
  • Burrow has scored 20+ DK pts in nine of 19 career games & 30 plus twice
  • LV allows 20.4 DK pts/g to QBs, 12th most


  • Tgt Share last three: Ja’Marr Chase-29% // Tee Higgins-26% // Tyler Boyd-17
  • RZ tgts: Chase-10 // Higgins-10 // Boyd-6
  • Chase had zero 10 tgt games Weeks 1-4 // He has three since
  • His price has came down to $7.2k after a season high $7.6k in Week 9
  • This makes him the eighth most expensive WR this week 
  • Higgins has yet to top 20+ DK pts this season & only has two TDs which came in the first two weeks of the season
  • His price ($5.4k) is tied for the most expensive it’s been all season
  • Boyd’s price ($4.8k) is just $100 more than his season low of $4.7k
  • He’s only topped 20 DK pts once this season in Week 4 on an 11 tgt game 
  • LV allows 31.4 DK pts to WRs, sixth most

CJ Uzomah:

  • 10% tgt share on the season
  • Five TDs w/ four coming in two games
  • Two 20+ DK pt games (24.1 Week 7, 26.5 Week 4)
  • Just three RZ tgts on the season
  • Price of $3.5k is in the middle of his season long range ($3k-$3.9k)
  • LV allows the second most DK pts/g to TEs (18.5)

Joe Mixon:

  • Most expensive he’s been all season after his price went up $400 from last week
  • Mixon hasn’t broke 100 rush yds since Week 1 when he got 29 atts
  • 62% rush share over last three (only got 50% in blowout win over Ravens)
  • Nine total TDs (seven rush, two rec)
  • Four of nine games w/ 25+ DK pts (three in last four)
  • Every game Mixon has scored 25+ he’s gotten at least four tgts
  • DK pts:tgts: 28:5 // 25:5 // 11:0 // 26:6 // 10:1 // 13:2 // 10:1 // 8:2 // 28:4
  • LV allows the ninth most DK pts/g to RBs (27.0)

Derek Carr

  • Carr’s season high price ($6k) came in Weeks 1 & 7
  • He’s been $5.9k the past three weeks
  • Carr hasn’t topped 20 DK pts since their bye in Week 9
  • DK pts: 19.2 // 13.3 // BYE // 23.0 // 24.5 // 8.2 // 15.4 // 25.2 // 27.2 // 28.0
  • DK pts in games LV scores 30+: 23.0 // 24.5 // 25.2 // 27.2 // 28.0 
  • LV averages 38.6 pass atts/g, eighth most
  • They pass on 64.9% of plays, sixth most
  • CIN allows 20.0 DK pts/g to QBs, 16th


  • Tgt share since Henry Ruggs release: Hunter Renfrow-23% // Bryan Edwards-10% // Zay Jones-9%
  • Renfrow has tied his season high in tgts each of the last three weeks: 7 // 7 // Bye // 7 // 3 // 6 // 6 // 5 // 5 // 6
  • $5.8k is the most Renfrow has been all season 
  • His previous season high was last week ($5.4k)
  • Renfrow has only one game w/ less than 10 DK pts but none over 20
  • LV RZ tgts: Renfrow-14 // Edwards-9 // Jones-2
  • CIN allows 37.0 DK pts/g to WRs, 15th most

Darren Waller:

  • Waller leads team in tgt share (21%) even with missing one game
  • He has only two games with 10+ tgts
  • Tgts: 7 // 11 // Bye // DNP // 5 // 8 // 7 // 7 // 7 // 19
  • Second in team RZ tgts (13)
  • Price ($6.1k) has came down from a season high $7.6k Week 2
  • CIN allows 10.4 DK pts to TEs, 10th least


  • Josh Jacobs (Questionable) atts: 7 // 13 // Bye // 6 // 16 // 15 // 13 // DNP // DNP // 10
  • Tgts: 5 // 4 // Bye // 3 // 1 // 5 // 5 // DNP // DNP // 2
  • Jacobs has yet to top 20 DK pts
  • His price ($6k) has been in the $5.7k-$6.2 range this season
  • Kenyan Drake has seen 8 atts with Jacobs back the last two weeks
  • He did have eight tgts two weeks ago in a 23-16 loss to NYG
  • CIN allows 29.3 DK pts/g to RBs, fourth most

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 4:25pm Eastern

Cards (
20.75) at

Hawks (

Over/Under 45.0


Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Welcome to the “injuries could change the entire dynamic of the game,” game of the week.
  • Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have been out the past two games, and with the Cardinals on bye in Week 12, there is a legitimate concern for projecting either to play this week, with the team in contention down the stretch (yes, current reports out of Arizona are that Kyler is “nearing a return,” but keep an eye on the late week statuses of both).
  • Although both teams exhibit conservative tendencies, this game has the offensive pieces to turn into a divisional shootout, assuming Kyler Murray plays.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona’s approach to this game likely depends largely on the status of quarterback Kyler Murray, who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury sustained late in their loss to the Packers three weeks ago. The Colt McCoy led Cardinals turned in a record of 1-1 in his absence, but with the Cardinals in the driver’s seat in the NFC West (and currently in a three-way tie for the best record in the NFL), and the fact that the team finally gets their bye next week, there is merit to the team giving Kyler an additional two weeks to fully heal up here. Further muddying those waters is the fact that backup quarterback Colt McCoy suffered a strained pectoral in their Week 10 loss last week and has practiced on a limited basis to start the week. The Cardinals have been a much different team this year when compared to last season (similar to the Bills), in that their pace-up nature in close games (eighth-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) has devolved into a slow-paced, balanced offense in games they are able to control with their top-five defense. Furthermore, they are a much more balanced team this season, after the offseason additions of AJ Green and James Conner gave us the sense that they would continue their pass-happy ways into the 2021 season.

The ground game became fairly straightforward when Chase Edmonds suffered an ankle injury that required a stint on the IR two weeks ago, paving the way for James Conner to act as a true workhorse running back (77% and 82% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks), leading to games of 26 opportunities and 14 opportunities (extremely negative game script). Consider Conner a favorite to end the week with a top-five raw workload at the running back position, in a matchup that yields an average 4.22 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Seattle defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (32.0). Behind Conner, expect Eno Benjamin to operate in a loose change of pace role. The possible return of Kyler Murray would greatly strengthen the expected fantasy range of outcomes for Conner, simultaneously boosting his raw matchup (the threat of a rushing quarterback) and the overall effectiveness of the Arizona offense.

Although the absence of alpha wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins supposedly condenses the expected pass volume, we’ve seen a relatively ineffective offense in his absence as the team deals with multiple changes to offensive personnel (the absences of Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and AJ Green, and the midseason acquisition of tight end Zach Ertz). It appears likely that Nuk will miss his third contest in a row, paving the way for Christian Kirk to once again be treated as this offense’s de facto number one (96% and 85% snap rates past two games). While not the prototypical alpha, Kirk has shown to be capable in all offensive alignments. The direct fill-in for Nuk has been Antoine Wesley for consecutive weeks, playing 77% and 76% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks. Rondale Moore took the biggest hit with the return of AJ Green to the lineup, who missed the team’s Week 9 contest, playing only 33% of the offensive snaps in Week 10. I’d expect all of Christian Kirk, AJ Green, Zach Ertz, and the aforementioned James Conner to operate as near every-down players this week, and all would see a significant boost to their individual ranges of outcomes should Kyler return. Seattle’s defense ranks middle of the pack in both completion rate allowed (15th) and yards allowed per reception (16th).

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Man, oh man, the Seahawks looked bad last week, and man, oh man, Russell Wilson looked not healthy last week. With that out of the way, the Seahawks continue their slow-paced, conservative-balanced approach on offense, not fully willing to unleash Russ until absolutely required to. This week also marks the 89th week in a row where head coach Pete Carroll has stated that the team needs to run the football more. Pete’s so cute when his team fails. All kidding aside, Pete Carroll seems to have this idea that the only way to win football games with an underperforming defense is to slow the game down, run the football, and keep the ball away from his opponents (as if scoring more points than the opponent won’t win games). Keep that in mind as we continue our exploration into this game.

The establish the run crew will be delighted to know that Pete Carroll is still a head coach in the NFL; however, this team’s backfield became a little less convoluted over the previous two weeks, where Alex Collins served as the clear early-down back and Travis Homer served as the clear change of pace and passing down back (compared to earlier where Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas were also in the mix). Consider each highly reliant on game flow to drive their expected volume. The matchup on the ground yields a respectable 4.29 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the Cardinals have really clamped down on opposing backfields in the red zone, ceding only three total touchdowns to the position.

Tight end Gerald Everett appears in danger of missing this week after failing to practice through Thursday. As such, expect Will Dissly to step into the lead role, while fellow tight end Colby Parkinson jumps up to a 60-65% snap rate (because, establish the run). Wide receiver Tyler Lockett has out-snapped DK Metcalf in every game since Week 2, which should continue to be the case moving forward. Freddie Swain continued to operate as the WR3 for the Seahawks after rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge returned from a lengthy absence last week. In all, we know this drill with the pass game by now: moderate volume and intermediate-to-deep roles make Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf highly reliant on volume and trips to the paint, but each carries pretty significant ceilings.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Alrighty then, we have one team that would prefer to slow the game down when playing with a lead, that is also struggling through a multitude of injuries (Cardinals), and we have one team who would prefer to “establish the run so we can hide an underperforming defense and attempt to win the game in the fourth quarter,” that is also playing with a quarterback not yet 100% healthy. That said, the actual flow of this game likely depends largely on Kyler Murray’s health and the Cardinals ability to assert control on the scoreboard. In every viable game script, however, we should have at minimum one of these two teams attempting to slow the game down, with the likeliest scenario (Kyler returns and the Cardinals can control the game through their defense and sustained drives) leading to a game environment that is largely underwhelming. As such, I am much more interested in one-offs and correlated pairings than I am in attacking this one with a game stack or two.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • 4th highest total that has moved down 2 pts
  • ARZ favored by 1 pt
  • ARZ had won every game until last week (7 straight)
  • ARZ/SEA totals w/ Cliff Kingsbury & Kyler Murray (2 seasons): 49 // 71 // 40 // 37
  • Teams are split at 2-2
  • The 71 pt total game went to OT, each team scored 30+, the only game where either teams reached 30+
  • SEA has allowed only 12.3 pts/g the last 3 (Packers, Jags, Saints)
  • ARZ pts last 3: 10 (McCoy) // 31 // 21 // Avg-20.7
  • SEA pts last 3: 0 (Wilson) // 31 (Geno Smith) // 10 (Geno)
  • ARZ pts allowed: 34 // 17 // 24 // Avg-25.0

Kyler Murray:

  • Murray missed the last 2 with an ankle injury
  • In 8 games Murray has 2 with 300+ pass yds (316-WK 3, 400-WK 4)
  • Pass TDs: 0 // 3 // 4 // 1 // 2 // 0 // 1 // 2 // 1
  • Murray has 5, 6, or 7 rush atts in every game (6.1 atts/g)
  • He scored a rushing TD in the first 3 games of the season but has none since
  • His longest rush is only 18 yds on the season
  • Murray ($7.9k) topped 30+ DK pts Weeks 1 & 2 // Since: 11.1 // 22.4 // 25.6 // 13.7 // 22.6 // 22.5
  • To pay off: 3x-23.7 // 4x-31.6 // 5x-39.5
  • Price range: $7.6k (Week 1)-$8.5k (Week 7) 
  • SEA allows the 11th least DK pts to QBs (18.5)


  • Hopkins may miss his 2nd straight game (hamstring)
  • Tgts last 2 w/ no Hopkins or Murray: Christian Kirk (8,6) // Rondale Moore (4 5) // AJ Green (5, DNP) // Antoine Wesley (1,3)
  • Snaps last 2: Kirk-(47,67) // Moore-(18, 7) // Green-(38,DNP) // Wesley-42,54)
  • Kirk has lined up in the slot on 77% of snaps
  • His price is a season high this week ($5.7k) // Season range: $4.5k-$5.7k
  • SEA allows 35.9 DK pts to WRs (13th least), 10.6 yds/rec (17th), & 275.3 rec yds/g (4th most)

Zach Ertz:

  • Since joining ARZ: 4:46 (6 tgts) // 3:27 (5 tgts) // 4:42 (4 tgts) // 3:66:1 TD (5 tgts)
  • $4.8k is a season high price
  • SEA allows 13.0 DK pts/g to TEs (15th least)


  • Chase Edmonds (IR) has missed the last 2
  • James Conner last 2: Rush-10:39:1 TD Rec-3:25 (4 tgts) // Rush-21:96:2 TDs Rec-5:77:1TD
  • Eno Benjamin last 2: 6:22 // 9:39:1 TD 
  • Conner has a rush TD in 7 of 10 games + 1 rec TD
  • DK pts/g: 15.4 // 40.3 // 14.2 // 12.4 // 8.1 // 10.7 // 20.6 // 18.3 // 2.6 // 5.3
  • SEA allows the 2nd most DK pts to RBs (32.0)
  • ARZ played SF in Conner’s 40.3 pt game // SF allows the 13th most DK pts/g to RBs (24.4)

Russell Wilson:

  • DK pts last 4 vs ARZ: 20.08 // 35.92 // 10.96 // 14.3
  • Wilson completed only 50% of his passes last week
  • DK pts: 7.6 (injured) // 10.1 // 22.6 // 16.6 // 26.3 // 27.1
  • He has one game w// 300+ pass yds & hasn’t had a game w/ 3+ pass TDs since Week 1 (4 TDs)
  • SEA ranks 31st in pass atts/g (28.9) & 30th in yds/g (202.4)
  • SEA QB sacks/g: 3.2 (2nd most) // ARZ QB sacks/g: 2.5 (9th most) 
  • His price ($6.5k) is a season low
  • Price Range: $6.5k-$7.6k
  • ARZ allows 16.8 DK pts/g to QBs (6th least), 5th least pass yds/g (206.4), & 11th least pass TDs/g 1.4

DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett:

  • Lockett had his biggest game of his career in the 1st matchup that went to OT last season (15:200:3 TDs:20 tgts:56.0 DK pts)
  • He had one of his worst games in the second matchup in 2019 (2.2 DK pts)
  • Avg DK pts vs SEA last 4 matchups: Metcalf-(4.9) // Lockett-(22.25)
  • Tgts last 3 games: Metcalf-(8, 6, 5) // Lockett-(8, 13, 3)
  • Metcalf has 2 10+ tgt games // Lockett has 3
  • Lockett DK pts: 4.3 // 29.2 // 3.2 // 5.5 // 10.7 // 6.4 // 7.1 // 34.8 // 29.0
  • Metcalf DK pts: 5.8 // 22.3 // 17.6 // 11.8 // 26.8 // 16.5 // 25.7 // 11.3 // 16.0
  • ARZ 20+ DK pt WRs allowed: Donovan Peoples-Jones (29.1-WK 6) // Van Jefferson (21.0-WK 4) // KJ Osborn (20.1-WK 2) 
  • No WR priced over $3.9k has scored 20 DK pts vs ARZ
  • ARZ allows the ninth least DK pts to WRs (34.6), 5th least rec yds/g (206.4), allows the 2nd to lowest yds/rec (9.2)


  • Tgts: Everett: (8, 2, 3, 3, 5, 2, 2) // Dissly (2, 2, 4, 2, 1, 3) 
  • SEA TEs have only two TDs (Everett-1, Dissly-1)
  • ARZ allows the least DK pts/g to TEs (7.6)


  • Chris Carson is unlikely to return from IR this week
  • Alex Collins atts w/o Carson: 10 // 10 // 16 // 20 // 15 
  • No other SEA RB has over 7 atts in a game since Carson was placed on IR
  • Collins season high DK pts was 19.8 pts vs PIT Week 6
  • Including Carson, no SEA RB has scored over 20 DK pts
  • SEA RBs have been targeted the least of any team (34)
  • ARZ allows the 14th least rush yds/g (116.6) // SEA ranks 22nd in rush yds/g (99.8) 
  • SEA atts 23.6 rushes/g (9th least)
  • ARZ allows the 12th least DK pts/g to RBs (23.3)

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
26.75) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 56.0


Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Five of the nine games that the Cowboys have played so far this year have gone for 60 combined points or more.
  • Six of the nine games that the Chiefs have played so far this year have gone for 54 combined points or more.
  • Dallas ranks 23rd in red zone touchdown rate allowed at 65.38%, while the Chiefs rank 27th at 68.75%.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire needs to put in a solid week of practice before the Chiefs activate him, but a return is possible this week.
  • The number one and number two most efficient offenses in the league.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Dallas pass rates when leading, in neutral situations, and when trailing, stand at 46%, 56%, and 66% on the season, which all rank in the top ten in the league in each respective category. Dallas defense also ranks fifth in drive success rate allowed. So, how in the hell have over half of the Cowboys games gone for 60 points or more, with half of the remaining four games coming in blowouts over the previous two weeks? They weren’t even all against top offenses, as they combined for more than 60 points against the Bucs, the Eagles, the Panthers, the Giants, and the Patriots. It’s a good question, I’m glad you asked! The Dallas defense ranks seventh in the league in opponent completion rate allowed but 25th in yards allowed per completion. This team has repeatedly been a victim of the deep ball, a recipe for relative disaster against the high octane Chiefs passing attack (third-most passing yards per game at 295.1). We also get a pretty solid glimpse into the tendencies of this offense through their changing pass rates in different situations. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has designed this offense to maximize the talents available to him on the roster and is continually putting this team in the best position to succeed.

In six of the seven games that weren’t blowouts, Ezekiel Elliott has seen a 70% or greater snap rate, leading to an average of 20.6 running back opportunities per game over that seven-game sample. Although no longer asked to carry the football 30+ times as he was earlier in his career, Zeke is still very much a major part of this offense. Spelling Zeke is backup extraordinaire Tony Pollard, who has seen anywhere between six and 18 running back opportunities in games this season. The matchup on the ground yields an ungodly 4.81 net-adjusted line yards metric against an underperforming Chiefs defense allowing 23.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (held down by the only six total touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs this season, which is interesting considering their struggles in the red zone).

Quarterback Dak Prescott has multiple touchdown passes in all but one healthy game this season but has only two games all year over 30 fantasy points, a nod to the balanced nature of this Cowboys offense. Five of his eight games started have seen him attempt 32 passes or fewer, with an overtime game against the Patriots, and a Week 1 shootout against the Bucs standing as two outlier games at over 50 pass attempts apiece. All of that was to highlight the moderate weekly volume expectation of the Dallas pass-catchers in all but extreme game environments, as all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs command their fair share of the pass volume. Furthering that assertion, all Dallas pass-catchers have combined for only four games of an individual seeing double-digit targets. Put another way, this is a spread pass offense. As such, individual pass-catchers must rely on efficiency and touchdowns in order to provide GPP-worthy scores. Keep that in mind as we dive further into this offense below.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

We’ve talked extensively about the offensive tendencies of the Chiefs in this space, so I’ll simply go over the most pertinent information for this game. Patrick Mahomes ranks second in the league in total intended air yards, and the Cowboys defense has struggled with discipline on the back end (overly aggressive). The biggest possible change for the Chiefs this week is the possible return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has been out of action since Week 5 with a knee injury. Even through all the perceived struggles of this Chiefs offense, they maintain their hold as the most efficient offense in the league from a drive success rate perspective, have scored the third-most points per drive, and pick up the most yards per drive. 

Should CEH return to action this week, I would expect more of a split backfield than what we have seen so far this season, with CEH and Darrel Williams splitting the “lead back” role and Jerick McKinnon on hand for the back most likely to be used in obvious pass situations. That muddies the picture a good bit when considering any member of this backfield. Should CEH miss, it is likeliest that Williams maintains the same lead-back role that has led to an average of 19.4 running back opportunities per game in the absence of CEH. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.30 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an offensive line that has largely struggled in most run-blocking metrics. Dallas has allowed just 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.

The pass game all but starts and stops with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who combine for 49.8% of the team’s total available targets on the year. Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, and Josh Gordon have been jockeying back and forth for snaps over the previous three games, with a single receiver amongst those four playing over 60% of the offensive snaps just twice over that time. Again, we’ll get into the matchup a bit more below.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

These two teams like to score points. These two teams also have been susceptible to giving up points. The Cowboys struggle with deep passing via an overly aggressive secondary, while the Chiefs primarily force teams to march the field while limiting splash plays against. Kellen Moore knows this and is likely to design a game plan around his running backs and short-area passing in an attempt to maximize his team’s chances of coming away with a victory. All of this comes together to make the likeliest game flow one of a back and forth, high scoring affair, in which each team is well equipped to attack the weakness of the opposing defense. We’re also unlikely to see one team pull away from the other, giving us a likeliest game environment ripe for fantasy goodness. Okay, that was already too many words to tell you something you already know: this game presents the best game environment on paper on the slate.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • DAL game totals: 60 // 37 // 62 // 64 // 64 // 64 // 36 // 46 // 46
  • KC game totals: 62 // 71 // 54 // 72 // 58 // 48 // 30 // 37 // 20 // 55
  • KC ranks 27th in def pass DVOA & 26th in def rush DVOA
  • DAL ranks 2nd in off pass DVOA & 17th in off rush DVOA

Dak Prescott:

  • Dak has 3+ TDs in six of eight games
  • QB TDs vs KC: 0 // 3 // 4 // 2 // 4 // 1 // 2 // 2 // 1 // 2
  • KC has an INT in five straight
  • Dak has thrown just 5 INT in 8 games
  • KC has allowed the 2nd most QB DK pts/g
  • Dak has scored 25+ DK pts in 5/8 2021 games
  • Dak as road dog in 50+ total games (DK pts): 22.8, 14.8, 17.6, 33.5, 31.4, 8.5


  • Lamb has 70+ yds in 6 of 9 games
  • Cooper has 70+ yds in 2 of 9 games
  • Cooper’s only 2 games both surpassed 100 yds, and both came in games Lamb also surpassed 100 yds
  • WR targets with Dak: Lamb (65) // Cooper (51) // Wilson (24) // Gallup (12)
  • WR targets with Gallup: Lamb (15, 7) // Cooper (16, 4) // Gallup (7, 5)
  • WRs with 8+ tg vs KC: Hollywood (6:113:1) // Williams (7:122:2), Allen (8:50:1) // Smith (7:122) // McLaurin (4:28) // AJ Brown (8:133:1) // Adams (6:42) // Renfrow (7:46:1)
  • KC has allowed the 13th lowest success rate to WRs on the 6th lowest WR tg rate faced
  • Lamb has three scores under 10 DK pts (9.5, 3.3, 4.3)
  • Lamb has three scores over 25 DK pts (26.4, 39.1, 28.6)
  • Cooper has games of 41.9 & 29.2 DK pts
  • Cooper’s other scores: 5.4, 5.6, 5.7, 9.1, 10.5, 15.0, 15.9
  • Gallup with Dak & McCarthy: 3:50 // 2:58 // 6:138:1 // 2:29 // 4:36 // 3:42

Dalton Schultz:

  • TEs vs KC: CLE (120) // Andrews (67) // LAC (67) // PHI (116:1) // Knox (117:1) // RSJ (58:1) // Pruitt (27:1) // NYG (27:2) // Deguara (16) // Waller (24)
  • Schultz targets: 6, 2, 7, 8, 8, 6, 7, 5, 2
  • Schultz has just two games below 45 yds with Dak: 45, 18, 80, 58, 79, 79, 54, 14

Ezekiel Elliott:

  • Elliott’s rush att: 11, 16, 17, 20, 21, 17, 16, 10, 14
  • Elliott’s targets: 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 9, 6, 3, 3
  • Elliott’s touches: 13, 18, 20, 21, 24, 26, 22, 13, 17
  • Elliott’s total yds: 39, 97, 116, 143, 112, 119, 73, 76, 56
  • RBs with 15+ touches vs KC: Chubb (101:2) // Williams (93) // Ekeler (107:1) // Moss (92) // McKissic (110) // Henry (102) // Booker (125)
  • Henry & Chubb are the only RBs with 80+ rush yds vs KC
  • 40+ rec yds vs KC: Ekeler (52:1) // Gainwell (58) // Moss (55) // McKissic (65) // Booker (65) // Dillon (44)
  • KC allowed 6 RB TDs in first four games
  • KC has allowed 0 RB TDs in last six games
  • Criteria: underdog, 50+ pt total, 12-16 avg rush att:::
  • 192 RBs match that criteria since 2014, with just 15 scores of 25+ DK pts and 6 scores of 30+ DK pts (CMC, Drake, Gordon, Hunt, Forsett, Murray)
  • When sample shrunk to 14-16 avg rush att, 10 of 92 have 25+ DK pts, 5 have 30+
  • Elliott is averaging 15.8 rush att & 3.6 tg in 2021

Patrick Mahomes:

  • After holding Matt Ryan to 2.7 DK pts, DAL jumped from allowing the 4th most QB DK pts/g to the 13th most QB DK pts/g
  • Brady, Herbert, Hurts, Darnold all threw for 300+ yds vs DAL in the opening month
  • No QB has thrown for 250 yds since (Glennon, Mac, Cousins, Teddy, Ryan)
  • Mahomes has thrown for 250+ yds in 8/10 games, and 300+ yds in 4 of them
  • DAL ranks 3rd in def pass DVOA, as they’ve allowed 14 pass TDs to 14 INTs
  • Mahomes threw 10 INT in first 8 g, and 0 in the last 2 g
  • Mahomes has played 23 games as a Home Favorite in a game implied for 50+ pts; he has scored 25+ DK pts in 12 of them, and 30+ DK pts in 8 of them


  • Tyreek Hill has finished above 60 rec yds in 42 of his 56 full games since 2018
  • The final game scores of Hill’s 25+ pt scores since 2020: (35-9), (33-31), (35-31), (27-24), (33-27), (38-24), (33-29), (42-30), (20-17), (41-14)
  • Hill targets: 15 // 4 // 7 // 12 // 13 // 12 // 9 // 18 // 11 // 10
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs DAL: AB (121), Godwin (105) // Allen (108), Williams (91) // Moore (113) // Toney (189) // Bourne (75) // Thielen (78) // Patrick (85)
  • All but Allen & Toney scored at least one TD as well
  • DAL has allowed the 8th highest rate of explosive pass plays to WRs
  • Hill has played in 21 of the 23 aforementioned Mahomes games, scoring 25+ DK pts in 7 of them, and 30+ DK pts in 3 of them
  • Since 2014, 126 WRs averaging 10+ tg/g in games implied for 50+ pts have averaged 21.01 DK pts/g, and 24 have scored 30+ DK pts (19%)
  • Since 2019 (48 games), the quartet of Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle has produced just five scores of 20+ DK pts, and the two biggest came during the absence of Hill

Travis Kelce:

  • Since 2020: Kelce has produced 70+ yds in 19/28 games, including 12 100yd games and 19 TDs
  • TEs vs DAL: Gronk (8:90:2) // Cook (3:28) // Goedert (2:66), Ertz (4:53:1) // Engram (4:55) // Henry (2:25:1) // Conklin (5:57) // Pitts (4:60); Both Parham & Cook had TDs called back vs DAL in W2
  • DAL has allowed the 6th highest yds/att to TEs
  • Kelce has scored 17+ DK pts in 7/10 games; 20+ in 4g
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill sub-15 DK pts: 22.5 // 30.6 // 22.8 // 26.9 // 20.4 // 17.7 // 12.5 // 17.8
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill 25+ DK pts: 27.9 // 28.9 // 29.9 // 16.2 // 30.6 // 25.6 // 6.3 // 4.7 // 22.9


  • DAL ranks 18th in def rush DVOA
  • RBs with 50+ rush yds vs DAL: Ekeler (54) // Hubbard (57) // Harris (101:1) // Cook (78) // Gordon (80:1), Williams (111) // Gallman (55)
  • CEH had two 100 yd rush outings before getting hurt vs BUF
  • Williams rushing without CEH: 62:2 // 20 // 49 // 70 // 43
  • Notable RB receiving vs DAL: TB (39) // Ekeler (61) // PHI (65) // CAR (62) // Booker (16:1) // Stevenson (39)
  • CEH hasn’t received more than 3 tg in a game this season
  • Williams targets without CEH: 4 // 4 // 6 // 4 // 9
  • Williams rec yds without CEH: 27 // 30 // 61 // 7 // 101:1
  • Lead RB touches for KC: CEH (17, 13, 19, 17, 9) // Williams (25, 9, 19, 23, 20)

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 8:20pm Eastern

Steelers (
20.5) at

Chargers (

Over/Under 47.5


Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass


Sunday night football brings us the Steelers at the Chargers, with a middling 47.5 total and the Chargers favored by 5.5. The hapless Steelers have only averaged about 20 points per game with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm this season (about what they’re projected for here). I’d be lying if I said this looked like a fun game, but there are still Showdowns to play and money to be won, so let’s figure out how to best attack it.

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On the Pittsburgh side, the . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 22nd 8:15pm Eastern

Giants (
19.5) at

Bucs (

Over/Under 50.0


Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass


Week 11 closes out with a game I am disappointed to have to write up as the Giants visit the Bucs. The game has a healthy 50 team total, but the Bucs account for the lion’s share of that as they are favored by a whopping 11 points (the Giants are only implied to score 19.5 points, yikes). This makes sense if you’ve watched any of these games because the Giants look just awful, while aside from their weird Week 10 loss, the Bucs have looked elite. Let’s pick this one apart . . .

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