Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game features two teams that are 30th and 31st in situation-neutral pass rate.
• Matchup and injury could force these teams away from how they choose to attack offensively.
• This is a game with big playoff implications for both teams as they could end up vying for one of the last wildcard spots based on current records and future outlook.
• The injury statuses of Alvin Kamara and Dallas Goedert will have a huge impact on the fantasy potential of this game.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

New Orleans is 30th in situation-neutral run rate and plays at the 29th fastest pace (seconds per snap) in the league. The strength of this team is their defense and coaching, which is how they try to win games. The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games, and those losses have been a pair of two-point losses that came down to the wire and an overtime loss. They focus on playing fundamental football, trying to force their opponent into mistakes, and hoping to pull-out close games late. 

This week the Saints travel to face an Eagles team with a middling defense by most metrics, but one that has performed very well against non-elite offenses. Team splits by opponents:

• ATL, SF, CAR, DET, DEN: 12 points per game
• DAL, KC, TB, LV, LAC: 34.2 points per game

What this tells us is that Philadelphia’s defense is a problem for weaker offenses but lacks the personnel to keep up with more explosive teams. The Saints are trotting out former third-string QB Trevor Siemian and, outside of Alvin Kamara, the Saints have possibly the worst skill position group in the league. This leads us down a path of realizing they fit much more closely with the first group of teams listed above than the high-powered second group. While Siemian has looked decent the last two weeks in bringing his team back from late deficits to make games close, he is not at the point where Sean Payton will put the game in his hands voluntarily. If Alvin Kamara plays, the Saints will lean on him and Mark Ingram because they will recognize that is the strongest area on their offense. If Kamara is unable to play, they will still likely lean heavily towards the run as their complete lack of explosive skill players will make them want to slow this game down and hope things break right late.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Philadelphia has turned from the 10th highest situation-neutral pass rate through Week 6 to, by far, the most run-heavy team in the league over the last four weeks. The Eagles have run the ball at a 68% rate over a three-week period, but those games have come against the 32nd, 23rd, and 29th ranked teams in rush defense DVOA. This week will be an interesting litmus test for the Eagles as they host the Saints’ #1 ranked run defense. Since their Week 6 bye, the Saints have held opponents to only 65 rushing yards per game. While they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of rushing offenses, those numbers are truly elite and show how consistently stout this defensive front is. Christian McCaffery’s 72 rushing yards in Week 2 is the most an individual player has managed, and the only game all season that a team has managed 100 rushing yards was Week 5 against Washington, and that was primarily due to Taylor Heinicke rushing for 40 yards on scrambles. 

Heinicke’s success on the ground may point to what the Eagles have to rely on here in order to move the football consistently. Jalen Hurts is able to run the ball successfully on designed runs or scrambles, and while he hasn’t needed to run much over the last three weeks, this is a spot where he will likely have to take off fairly often. The Saints have not played a true rushing QB yet this year, and the new dynamic may shake things up a bit for them. Dallas Goedert was knocked out of Week 10 with a concussion, and his potential absence would make things difficult for the passing game as well, with Marshon Lattimore likely able to lock into Devonta Smith. The Eagles are most successful as a team when they are able to run the ball effectively and with volume, but that is going to be a tough task this week. Jalen Hurts, or the Eagles defense is going to have to win this game for them.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams are likely to struggle to move the football and will play conservatively in the hopes that the opponent blinks first by making some mistakes. Each team has one dynamic weapon that would have a chance to break things open in Kamara and Hurts, assuming Kamara is healthy. However, the lack of other viable threats for each team will allow the talented and well-coached defenses to key on those players and keep the chances low of a high-paced, high-scoring game breaking out.

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Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Jets will be starting Joe Flacco, who brings career 6.8 yards per attempt and 10.9 yards per completion marks to the table against a defense allowing 42.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, while ranking 28^th in the league in yards allowed per pass.
• The Miami defense blitzes at the second highest rate in the league, a large contributing factor to the Jets’ decision to start Flacco here.
• New York’s pace of play jumps from a 32.22 second per play situation-neutral mark all the way up to 24.85 seconds per play in the second half this season, which is a significant jump. That also means that Jets game environments are highly reliant on their opposition to generate positive environments.
• The Dolphins will be playing this game with a depleted pass-catching corps and a quarterback with a “banged up finger” on his throwing hand.

How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s situation-neutral pass rates in all games in which Tua Tagovailoa started sits at 64% this season, a tick below their season average of 66%. Their pace of play sits at a 14^th-ranked 30.30 situation-neutral mark and eighth-ranked 26.61 mark overall. In neutral-to-positive game flows, Tua averages just over 13 pass attempts per half (only six quarters in this sample size this season), as the team has been forced into continual negative game scripts due to an underperforming defense. Speaking of that defense, the Dolphins blitz at the league’s second highest rate and play elevated man coverages because of it. Miami’s pass rates are top five in the league in almost every split (first half, second half, with a lead, with a lead in the second half, etc), meaning the expected pass volume this week depends almost entirely on Tua’s health.

Myles Gaskin has emerged as the borderline workhorse running back on this offense in the absence of Malcolm Brown, who has already been ruled out for this weekend. Over the last four weeks, his snap rates have been 63%, 58%, 72%, and 61%, leading to running back opportunity counts of 19, 16, 26, and 16. The efficiency has been extremely lacking behind an atrocious offensive line, but the volume has been, and should continue to be there. Expect Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird to operate sparingly in change of pace roles. The matchup on the ground yields a gross-on-paper 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric, held low via Miami’s second to last rank. Four to six targets with 14-16 rush attempts should be considered Gaskin’s standard range of outcomes as far as expected workload goes here.

Preston Williams appeared to remain in the proverbial doghouse in Week 10 after being held out for two consecutive contests, landing a modest 26% snap rate. Albert Wilson continues to operate in a modified third wide receiver role, primarily out of the slot, leaving Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki as the only true every-down pass-catchers on this offense. The second wide receiver role was split between Williams, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford last week, and unless Preston is removed from the doghouse, all three are likely to split the role again here. Via the previous discussion, Miami has really only controlled the game environment for six quarters with Tua under center, leading to an average of 13.3 pass attempts per quarter. Are we likely to only see 27 pass attempts here? No, I’d say we’re likeliest to see somewhere in the range of 32-35 pass attempts from the Dolphins based on their season-to-date tendencies, leaving seven to nine targets for Waddle, six to eight targets for Gesicki, four to six targets for the aforementioned running back Myles Gaskin, and 15 or so targets split amongst Albert Wilson, Preston Williams, Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, Salvon Ahmed, and Patrick Laird. Not a ton to love here.

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

Things get shaken up a good bit for the Jets this week with the news that Joe Flacco will garner the start. Number two overall pick Zach Wilson apparently isn’t healthy enough to return to a starting role and the team is moving on from the Mike White experiment, paving the way for Flacco to draw the start after being recently acquired from the Eagles. On the season, the Jets rank second in the league in situation-neutral pass rates, checking in just behind the Bucs at 67%. Their situation-neutral pace of play ranks 25^th at 32.22 seconds per play, which jumps to a third-ranked 24.85 seconds per play in the second half (that, my friends, is a substantial jump!). We should consider the Jets a team that required outside influence to force the issue as far as game environment goes, which has been the case fairly often this year. 

The return of Tevin Coleman muddied the waters of this Jets backfield further, who returned to his standard, pre-injury role as the primary early-down, change of pace rusher. Those snaps came to the direct detriment of starter Michael Carter, while Ty Johnson maintained his role as the primary “obvious pass down” back. The pure rushing matchup returns a below-average 4.015 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a slight downgrade against the pass-funnel nature of the Dolphins defense. The biggest impact to this backfield, more so than the return of Tevin Coleman, is the change at quarterback, as Flacco has targeted the running back position at a whopping 23.5% over his career. For perspective, the NFL average for running back target rate this season is just over 18%. This would seem to result in a significant boost to the back on the field the most in Michael Carter, who would still require efficiency and multiple trips to the end zone in order to provide a GPP-worthy score, but who also sees a slightly elevated floor compared to weeks prior (more on this below).

Similar to our discussion on the running back position, we can gain a glimpse of the expected target distribution for the Jets this week by examining the career positional target rates for new starter Joe Flacco. Flacco has targeted the slot wide receiver position at one of the lower rates of qualifying quarterbacks over his career at just over 16%. What does this mean? When we take a big picture look at Flacco and his underlying metrics over his career, we find that his first read is fairly often a perimeter wide receiver on intermediate-to-deep routes, and if forced into second and third reads (either through pressure or sticky coverage on the back end), he is more than willing to simply check the ball down to his running back. Back to Michael Carter, who is in a route on 42.7% of the team’s passing plays this season. When we then consider the heavy blitz rates of the Miami defense, we’re left with a good path to six to eight targets for Michael Carter here, with possible paths to more should Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage continue. Speaking of those struggles, Davis holds a 12.0 yards per target mark against zone this season and a 6.0 yards per target mark against man, a glaring split to consider against the heavy man coverages shown by the Dolphins this season with the return to health by perimeter corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So, while Davis is the “deep threat” in this offense (13.4 aDOT, compared to 5.4 for Jamison Crowder and 11.9 for Elijah Moore), the chances for him returning a strong GPP-worthy score here are much lower than I initially thought, before diving into the setup of this game. In all, no one player profiles as a strong on-paper play from the Jets this week with Flacco at quarterback, although Michael Carter should be considered the top play from this team.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Because the Jets don’t force the issue on their own, but they up their pace of play to extreme levels if forced to do so, the overall game environment from this one depends almost entirely on Miami’s ability to put points up on the scoreboard in the first half. Considering the heavy injuries to Miami’s pass-catching corps, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ailing finger injury, and Miami’s propensity to let games come to them depending on their defense’s ability to limit scoring, we’re left with a situation where the percentage solution here is a game environment largely devoid of paths to upside. To put that another way, in order for this game to really take off, it would likely require aggression to be initiated by Miami, which we are extremely unlikely to see here considering the current state of the Dolphins. That gives us a likeliest game flow where the first half is played to a relative slugfest, with Miami eventually asserting control later in the game. Joe Flacco’s career 61.7% completion rate and low touchdown totals (only 225 passing scores in 175 career starts) make first-half success for the Jets highly unlikely here, particularly considering de facto alpha Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage so far this year. Since the Dolphins are likely to take a conservative approach with a depleted pass-catching corps and an injury to the throwing hand of their starting quarterback, and since the Jets don’t show aggression unless forced to do so, we’re likeliest to see a game decided late in the fourth quarter or by the Miami defense. All of that to say, this game environment is not one to go out of our way to attack this week.

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Game Overview ::

By MJOHNSON86 >>

• Washington is likely overrated by most people after a surprising upset of the Bucs.
• Carolina is a new team with Cam Newton under center and has one of the best defenses in the league.
• Washington will lean into the run due to recent results and the strength of the Panthers’ pass defense.
• Carolina has the advantage of the unknown as Washington has very little game film to prepare for Cam Newton as the full-time QB, while Washington is also without their two best defensive linemen in Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::

Ron Rivera is an old-school coach at heart. While he got some praise for some aggressive 4th down play-calling during his time in Carolina, that really wasn’t him behind most of it and, when it comes down to it, he is a defensive coach with conservative play-calling tendencies. Last week was a signature win for Washington against the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs where they won with defense and a conservative approach. Rivera is now returning to Carolina and facing a team with Cam Newton, his former QB from his time there who he has passed up acquiring multiple times since. While “narratives” are often overblown for players, coaches have a huge impact on games as their decisions and mindsets can set the course of a game. While last week’s win likely had more to do with a depleted Bucs offense laying a dud in a flat performance coming out of a bye week than it did with anything Washington was doing, Rivera will be of the belief that they’ve found a recipe that they need to continue using.

Washington ran the ball on over 50% of their plays last week despite averaging under three yards per carry. Rivera is likely to follow the “results over process” mindset here and attempt to slug it out on the ground. The matchup with the Panthers also dictates that as the likely method of attack as Carolina’s loaded secondary and pass rush give them the #2 ranked DVOA pass defense as opposed to ranking 19th in rush defense. I expect it to be very hard for Washington to move the ball through the air, especially if Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones both miss the game and leave them down to their third-string tight end. Terry McLaurin is a great player and can overcome tough individual matchups but the Panthers have maybe the most talented secondary in the league. With no other serious threats to draw attention, it will be tough for him to be a focal point of moving the ball. Washington will have a heavy dose of running back usage with Heinicke sprinkling in short area passes spread out among the rest of the receivers and running backs, usually using motions and schemed plays to create easier throws.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Christian McCaffery and Cam Newton are back together in the Carolina backfield and give the Panthers a dynamic look that is much different than the Panthers’ offense from most of the first half of the season. McCaffery handled 23 opportunities (13 carries and 10 targets) in Week 10 before sitting out the 4th quarter of a blowout, signaling that he is back and will see the elite usage that we expect. Newton will also open some things up for Carolina in the running game and short area. His presence can not be understated, as he changes the entire dynamic for the defense. The Panthers spent much of the season without any true playmaking threats in their backfield, which let teams bring pressure and/or get exotic in the secondary to pick on their average to mediocre quarterback play. The presence of both CMC and Cam now stretches defenses both horizontally and vertically, while creating confusion on read-option and play-action plays. Cam isn’t necessarily an elite passer, but what his rushing threat does to a defense along with CMC’s presence in the short area will make things much easier for him in intermediate and deep passing than it was for Sam Darnold and PJ Walker.

Carolina will lean into their new identity and I trust offensive coordinator Joe Brady to use his weapons creatively. Washington ranks 6th in rush defense DVOA, but just lost all-pro DE Chase Young for the season and has not faced anything close to the threats out of the backfield that the Panthers possess. Carolina should be able to use read-option and play-action passing to keep Washington’s front seven off balance while attacking a very beatable secondary (29th in PFF coverage grade and 29th in DVOA pass defense) in one-on-one situations with their talented receivers.

Likeliest Game flow ::

If any team is going to take control of this game, it is overwhelmingly likely that it would be the Panthers. While this is definitely a winnable game for Washington, the range of outcomes in this game leans much further towards Carolina than the 3-point spread would seem to indicate at first glance. While many people will be high on Washington after their big win over the Bucs, the reality is that this is still a below-average offensive team who just lost their best defensive player. 

The likeliest game flow is a moderately paced and moderate scoring first half, with Carolina gradually taking control as the game wears on. Washington will be conservative when the game is close and even more conservative if they get any kind of a lead. If Carolina can build a lead, they will force Heinicke to throw into the teeth of their defense and will be able to attack Washington on the ground and through the air in a positive game script — Cam has always been at his best when playing with a lead.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These two teams rank first and second in the NFL in turnover margin; their offenses simply don’t turn the ball over and their defenses are predicated on attacking the football until the whistle.
• Injuries of note include DeForest Buckner (abs, back, throat???), Darius Leonard (ankle, hand), TJ Carrie (knee, but it appears likely defensive back teammate Xavier Rhodes makes his return), and Cole Beasley (ribs).
• One of the higher game totals on the slate, but one that comes with a wide range of potential outcomes as far as true game flow goes.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts operate the slowest situation-neutral offense in the league and run a largely balanced offense. A lot has been made of the rushing success shown over the previous seven games through Jonathan Taylor, but this offense checks in at 13^th in the NFL in pass rate (59%) with the score within seven points (as in, competitive games). The foundation of Frank Reich’s offensive system revolves around layered routes and heavy 11 and 12-personnel rates, creating a dynamic environment that defenses are forced to adjust to in-game. The return to health of wide receiver TY Hilton has given them a dynamic playmaker in the “Z” wider receiver position capable of stretching the field vertically (the duo of Parris Campbell and TY Hilton have missed a combined 13 games this season), which opens up additional room underneath for the running back duo of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, as well as “X” and “Y” wide receivers Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Although the complexities of the route trees are designed to put pressure on a defense at multiple levels, the three primary wide receivers typically align in more traditional roles (“X”, “Y”, “Z”).

Frank Reich has long been hailed as a true technician of the game, tailoring an offense best suited to the personnel available to him, which is no different this year. The problems have largely been just that, the personnel available to him have been hit or miss each week. The main constant has been the running back room, which has devolved into a loose timeshare between Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, with snap rates and opportunity shares largely dictated by the game flow.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve uncovered throughout the site over the preceding four to five weeks, this Bills offense is not the same unit we grew accustomed to attacking with last year. Bankable weekly volume is a bit more convoluted than it has been in the past with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and the expanded role of breakout tight end Dawson Knox. Brian Daboll has shown more muted offensive aggression as far as late-game play calling goes when games have been in hand, and we’ve seen a higher emphasis on the run game in the red zone this season (37.5% rush score rate, compared to 25.37% last year). To put that in another way, we know this pass offense is still one of the top units in the league, but we can’t just close our eyes and click on Josh Allen and two of his pass-catchers and call it good as we could last year. We need to be methodical in our approach to this team now. The Bills run the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace of play in the league this year, with a blistering pace in games they trail (first-ranked 19.89 seconds per play). They’ve also run the fifth most offensive plays per game at 67.1 and rank fifth in total offense per game (401.1 yards per game).

On the ground, the matchup yields a slightly above average 4.31 net-adjusted line yards metric, but from a macro perspective, the matchup hinges a good deal around the health of Colts linebacker Darius Leonard. Zach Moss and Devin Singletary continue to operate in a tightly split backfield, each typically seeing 45-55% snap rates on a standard week. Matt Breida entered the conversation last week, scoring two touchdowns on only eight offensive snaps. Both Moss and Singletary are each typically good for only eight to 12 running back opportunities on a standard week and shouldn’t warrant our consideration this week in a neutral-at-best matchup.

The money is made (figuratively and literally) through the Bills pass offense, which currently ranks sixth in the NFL in total pass yards per game at 279.2. Week 10 marked just the third time all season that Stefon Diggs out-snapped “Queen Chess piece” Emmanuel Sanders, the latter of whom has been deployed all over the formation this year. Keep an eye on the injury status of slot-man Cole Beasley, who missed practice on Wednesday with his ribs ailment. I’d expect it to simply be a case of load management, but it is a situation worth monitoring, nonetheless. We’ll get into the matchups for each pass-catcher in the DFS Interpretation section below. WR4 Gabriel Davis continues to play a moderate role as a situational receiver, while Isaiah McKenzie typically sees 20-25% of the offensive snaps himself. Breakout tight end Dawson Knox has gotten by on an unsustainable touchdown rate and typically sees between four and five targets.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bills should have no problem passing against a very pass-funnel Colts defense, and while the Colts are presented with a difficult matchup on the offensive side of the ball, they create enough pressure over multiple levels that we’re likely to see them generate some level of success here. Although the chances of this game erupting for a “had to have it” game environment are fairly low, we should see this game played close throughout. The deciding factor may very well be which team wins the turnover battle, as each offense simply doesn’t turn the ball over at a high rate but each defense is built to attack the football in every area (aggressively pursue generating turnovers). So while the actual likeliest game flow depends heavily on if and when one of these defenses can force a timely turnover, we should see a tightly contested game here. That makes nailing down the likeliest game flow rather difficult, but gives us a game environment where we are likely to be able to narrow down the likeliest flow of volume to a point where select players should warrant our consideration from this game.

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Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• If Nick Chubb misses, D’Ernest Johnson will again be a “must play.”
• The Browns defense is underpriced for a home date with the Lions.
• D’Andre Swift is likely to see usage similar to Weeks 1-7 with the return of Williams.
• T.J. Hockenson has been more involved in weeks following his disappearing acts.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions aren’t going to go 0-16! A collective half sigh of relief must’ve been felt in Detroit as they avoided suffering the indignity of being the only franchise to go 0-16 twice. Is 0-15-1 better? It’s a little better. Dan Campbell deserves credit since unlike the 2008 Lions who at least had Calvin Johnson, the 2021 Lions truly have an 0-16 roster. Dan Campbell is now outperforming his talent. The Lions aren’t rolling over either, playing most of their games close, and pushing several playoff teams to the brink. They are loaded with draft picks, and it will be fun in the coming years to see if Campbell can turn this franchise around.

This week they face a Browns team that is weak against the pass (26^th in DVOA), and above-average against the run (12^th in DVOA), creating a pass funnel defense. The Lions seem to come into every game ready to brawl, more than with a specific plan to attack the team they are playing. They’ll basically try whatever is working and keep at that approach if it’s keeping them in the game. They’ll also cut bait and totally switch styles if what they’re doing isn’t working. This is evidenced by their normally slow pace (27^th situational neutral) but their willingness to throw caution into the wind and speed up (10^th in pace when behind) if they’re trying to catch up. They showed this tendency last week when they slammed Swift into the relative strength of the Steelers defense 33 times (averaging only 3.9 YPC) because, hey, it was keeping the game close! This game profiles as a game the Lions are likely to be losing, so there is a good chance of another 35 passing attempts or more for the Lions. Further complicating matters is the health of Jared Goff, who looks likely to play through an injury.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns come into this game a middling 5-5, disappointing against expectations after a 3-1 start, and currently sitting in the basement of the AFC North. The Browns have built the most effective running game in the NFL, behind an elite O-line and two of the best backs in the league. Unfortunately, their coaching staff continues to squander this massive advantage, and Baker Mayfield has looked more like a game manager than a franchise QB. Further highlighting this coaching staff’s inability to maximize their talent is the departure of Odell Beckham. OBJ passed the eye test in a Rams uniform, and his Dad politely pointed out on social media that he was routinely open and never got the ball. Kevin Stefanski needs to turn this season around or he might rightly be shown the door.

It’s no secret by now how the Browns want to attack. They play slowly (28^th situational neutral pace) and run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. Mayfield has been held under 33 attempts in every game this year, including back-to-back 21 attempt games. The Lions talent deficient defense is equally bad against the pass (28^th in DOVA), as the run (29^th in DVOA), and there is no reason for the Browns to deviate from their preferred method of attack. It is easy to predict with high confidence that the Browns will slam their running game down the Lions throats all afternoon.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 44 point total and sets up as a potential blowout spot (aren’t all Lions games) as the Browns are well-positioned to be able to move the ball against Detriot’s poor run D. Vegas has installed the Browns as a large 10 point home favorite, and in these spots we normally must worry about QBs/WRs sitting in the fourth quarter. Here, we know the Browns are going to run the ball all game, regardless of the scoreboard. The most likely game flow is highly likely, which has the Browns running all over the Lions from start to finish, with the scrappy Lions trying to pass to catch up late, before ultimately taking another loss.

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By HILOW >>

• San Francisco starting running back Elijah Mitchell underwent a procedure on Tuesday to address a finger fracture but is apparently not ruled out yet.
• JaMycal Hasty missed practice to start the week with an ankle injury.
• Jacksonville starting running back James Robinson added an ankle injury to his heel injury and missed practice on Wednesday.
• Both teams see their situation-neutral rush rates skyrocket if playing with a lead, as each team ranks in the top three in the league in rush rates with a lead (SF: 60%; JAX: 62%).

How SAN FRANSICO Will Try To Win ::

The best glimpse into how the 49ers would like to try to win games comes by examining their run-pass rates with a lead. San Francisco ranks third in the NFL this year in rush rates with a lead at 60% (interestingly enough, Jacksonville ranks first in this metric at 62%). Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranks third to last in the league in intended air yards per game, ahead of only Jameis Winston and Ben Roethlisberger. On the defensive side of the ball, the Niners continue their “blanket defense” approach, focusing on strength against the run, a swarming second level, and a back end that limits depth of target. When we combine these ideas, we’re left with a team that attempts to win games by limiting splash plays against on defense and building its offense around the run and ball-out-quick to its primary playmakers (Deebo Samuel and George Kittle).

The run game brings a bit of uncertainty this week with the news that Elijah Mitchell underwent a procedure on Tuesday to surgically repair a fracture in his finger. All early week news from the Niners is that they expect Mitchell to play this weekend. Furthering the unknowns is the uncertainty surrounding pass-catching running back JaMycal Hasty, who followed up a missed game in Week 10 with a missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury. In all, I would expect Mitchell to play but see a limited pass game role with his injured finger, while it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hasty miss a second consecutive game, leaving Jeff Wilson, Jr. as the primary change of pace option. The matchup yields a slightly below average 4.12 net-adjusted line yards metric, while the Jaguars cede the fifth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backfields.

We’ve finally seen this pass-catching corps return to where we thought it would be entering the season, with tight end George Kittle fully healthy and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk seemingly out of the doghouse. The Niners run 11-personnel at a bottom-five rate this season, instead utilizing 21-personnel at the league’s highest rate (two running backs). Often we find that increased 21-personnel rate comes through the presence of fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who has played more than 40% of the offensive snaps in every game since Week 1, including six games of 55% or more. That gives us an extremely concentrated pass-catching corps consisting primarily of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, with rotational pieces of Trent Sherfield and Jauan Jennings. The Jaguars present the Niners with an extreme pass-funnel matchup (seventh in DVOA against the run and 31^st in DVOA against the pass), but offensive tendencies limit the appeal based on expected game environment and to-date pass volume (over 30 pass attempts in only two games this season). As such, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Aiyuk will require efficiency and touchdowns to return GPP-worthy scores, which is boosted by the matchup.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars are basically akin to the Batman villain Two-Face with respect to their play-calling tendencies and how the team is run. With a lead this season, the Jaguars lead the league in rush rates at 62%. When trailing, however, they rank 10^th in the league in pass rates at 69%. Their pace of play jumps all over the place as well, from a situation-neutral value of 30.70 seconds per play (15^th) to a 22^nd-ranked 30.09 when leading by seven or more points, to an eighth-ranked 23.93 seconds per play when trailing by seven or more points. Overall, their pace of play on the season ranks first at just 25.86 seconds. Put this all together and how Jacksonville will try to win and the ways they have been forced to try to win are far from equal. Consider the Jaguars a team highly reactive and reliant on game flow as far as tendencies are concerned.

Before dealing with multiple injuries, running back James Robinson controlled this backfield with standard snap rates in the 65%-85% range. That has changed over the previous three games with Robinson dealing with a heel injury (has since added a “minor ankle injury” to the fold, as well). Over the first six weeks of the season, Robinson averaged 17.67 running back opportunities per game. Since the team’s Week 7 bye, Robinson has missed one game and played only 11% of the offensive snaps in another. His only healthy game since the team’s bye came in Week 10, where he saw a 59% snap rate and 17 running back opportunities. If he can take the field this week, the likeliest range of outcomes puts him in the 17-21 running back opportunity range, with game flow likely to dictate his receiving totals. Behind Robinson, the ageless Carlos Hyde operates as the primary backup, typically seeing between 25% and 35% of the offensive snaps, but capable of filling the lead back role should Robinson miss or be limited. The pure rushing matchup yields a slightly below average 4.155 net-adjusted line yards metric and should very much be considered a strength-on-strength matchup for the Jags.

The pass-catching corps has settled into a tight distribution of opportunities after the team added Marvin Jones, Jr. in the offseason, traded for tight end Dan Arnold after Week 3, and saw DJ Chark lost for the season during Week 4. Marvin Jones, Jr., Laviska Shenault, Jr., Jamal Agnew, and Dan Arnold now operate in “majority share” roles, each playing lead roles at their respective positions. Jones operates as the intermediate-to-deep threat with an aDOT of 12.1, Jamal Agnew operates in a short-to-intermediate role with an aDOT of 7.8, while Laviska Shenault operates in an underneath role with an aDOT of 6.6. Dan Arnold’s aDOT falls just below league average at 5.8 yards. Consider this offense one that is still trying to find their identity with all the new faces in the building, as far as coaching personnel goes. With the previous discussion of tendencies in mind, it should make sense that rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had an extremely wide range of outcomes as far as his pass attempts have gone, with two games below 26 pass attempts, four games between 33 and 35 pass attempts, one game of 41 pass attempts, and two games of 51 or more (!!!) pass attempts on the season. The 49ers have continued their “blanket defense” design under first-year defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans (following the departure of Robert Saleh), providing a strong defensive front against the run and a secondary designed to limit downfield passing against and “swarm tackle” after the catch. On the season, the 49ers have forced the second-fewest air yards, behind only the Bills.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Instead of trying to beat our collective heads against a cinderblock wall trying to figure out the exact likeliest scenario here, it is much more optimal to try and decipher what scenarios could evolve from this one, and who would benefit the most in each case. Since each team would prefer to run the football for as long as they are afforded the opportunity to do so, and since each team primarily attacks the short-to-intermediate areas of the field and relies on yards after the catch through the air, and since the Jaguars have shown play-calling tendencies that are drawn to the extremes (as far as run-pass rates are concerned), the lone scenario where we can confidently predict volume for each side is one where the 49ers are able to control the flow. We know the Jaguars would respond with elevated pass rates and an increased pace of play in this scenario, resulting in bankable volume for the Jacksonville pass-catchers in addition to a bump in expected offensive plays run from scrimmage and volume for the San Francisco run game. All other game flows, environments, and scenarios lead to a wide range of outcomes as far as volume and expected production goes, so it doesn’t make much sense to dissect each here, as they would leave little room for fantasy interest.

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Houston is coming off a bye and, since a Week 1 victory over the Jaguars, have lost eight straight games. Of those games, only one was within one score.
• Houston’s defense has actually been pretty solid while the offense has been the worst in the league.
• Tennessee has continued their string of success even as they are still finding their post-Derrick Henry identity.
• This game pits two relatively slow paced teams against each other who are both short on playmakers.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston is a pretty straightforward team to evaluate. They are slightly above league-average in situation-neutral pass rate and slightly below average in situation-neutral pace — their issues lie in personnel, talent, and execution. Houston’s offensive line PFF ranks are 27th in pass-blocking grade and 32nd in run blocking. Their skill players consist of journeyman veterans and/or young, inexperienced fringe NFL prospects. This combination of poor blocking and lack of playmakers makes it nearly impossible to create offense, as Houston ranks 31st in DVOA for both rush offense and passing offense. While Houston is “trying to win games,” really what they are doing is trying to keep their heads above water and fighting for jobs for next year (for both coaches and players).

Houston has not had over 15 running back rush attempts in any of their last three games, while they have failed to score double-digit points in five of nine games. Tennessee is best attacked on the ground, but Houston’s complete ineptitude in run blocking, along with below-average talent at running back, will make rushing success difficult to count on. Houston will likely continue a balanced attack and hope that Tyrod Taylor’s legs, a big play from Brandin Cooks, or a couple of broken plays can keep them in it.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee is trying to establish its identity in a post-Derrick Henry world. Over the last two weeks, the defense has stepped up and led them to victories with impressive performances against the Rams and Saints. In each of the last two weeks, the Titans took control early and did not have to ask much of the offense, which allowed them to remain conservative and run-heavy. This week’s game sets up a similar script, however, meaning we will likely have to wait at least another week to see what it takes to push this offense out of its comfort zone.

Houston’s defense is actually pretty respectable, ranking 17th out of 32 teams in defensive DVOA. The problem is the offense’s complete inability to move the ball or sustain drives, which gives opponents ample opportunity to score points, along with 17 turnovers through nine games leading to short fields. Tennessee is lacking in playmakers but has an above-average quarterback, high-end wide receiver, and a good all-around scheme. Houston’s defense has shown their greatest vulnerability in the running game, and Tennessee will likely lean into that while counting on their defense to feast on the porous Texans offense. When Tennessee does throw the ball, we should expect AJ Brown to feast on the 32nd graded coverage unit by PFF. Tennessee likely won’t need to throw with heavy volume, but we should expect high efficiency and potentially explosiveness when they do.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams are bottom-10 in situation-neutral pace, suggesting a game with relatively low play volume. Houston is not a great running team but will be encouraged to keep things on the ground rather than challenging the #2 graded secondary by PFF. Tennessee ranks 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and in a game that they are heavily favored, are likely to control how it is played and will attack in their most comfortable, familiar fashion — high run rate with some play action and bootleg passing concepts mixed in to make the defense pay for over pursuing the running game.

The combination of these factors sets up a slow-paced game with both teams running at a high rate — meaning the clock will be running and teams will be milking the play clock on both sides. Houston will eventually need to turn more pass-heavy as they fall further behind but are unlikely to see much success in that regard due to their lack of blocking and talent. This means that the Titans will get the ball back quickly after short Texans drives and run the clock even more. Don’t be surprised if this game is done 20 to 30 minutes before the rest of the early games on Sunday.

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Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Packers are in a mid-season hurt locker as far as injuries go to the offense. All of David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones (duh), Allen Lazard, Aaron Rodgers, and Malik Taylor have yet to practice as of Thursday.
• The Vikings rank tied for first in giveaways per game, while the Packers rank tied for fifth; neither offense gives the ball away!
• Both defenses rank 25^th or worse in red zone touchdown rate allowed, with the Vikings checking in at 68.00% and the Packers checking in at 73.08%.
• One of the better expected game environments on the slate.

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Aaron Rodgers “F U” tour continues in Week 10 as the Packers visit the Vikings. Tied for the best record in the league with the Cardinals and Titans, the Packers come into Week 11 with a clear identity. Their prevent-zone defense has rounded into form as the year has progressed, allowing Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers to control games through a methodical and slow-paced offense, designed to wear teams down as the game goes on. Although the Vikings have generated 29 sacks on the season, they have forced only 12 total turnovers over their first nine games and the Packers rank fifth in the league in giveaways. Expect the Packers to largely find success moving the ball in a neutral-on-paper matchup.

Aaron Jones is out. Kylin Hill is out (somehow, the industry isn’t talking about this). Patrick Taylor is the only other running back on the active roster currently, with Ryquell Armstead and Kerrith Whyte currently the only running backs on the practice squad. This. Is. Dillon’s. Backfield. The matchup against the Vikings yields an absolutely elite 4.725 net-adjusted line yards against the team ranked dead last in the NFL in the metric. The Packers’ high marks have also come with a piecemealed offensive line that has seen its fair share of injuries and change this season. Not much else to say with this one, to be honest.

The passing game sees a slew of injuries to regular contributors, as Allen Lazard and Malik Taylor have yet to practice this week. Lazard split the WR2 role with Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the two games without Robert Tonyan, so his absence would be of particular importance considering the necessary shift to heavier 11-personnel alignments seen over the previous two games. Davante Adams remains the alpha and the omega of this pass-catching corps, and would likely be counted on even more should Lazard miss as their route trees and responsibilities overlap a good bit. There are very few players in the NFL that can realistically approach 15-20 targets in a single game (well, other than Najee Harris lolz), and Davante Adams is one of them. The tight end unit has devolved into a three-headed blocking unit made up of veteran Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, and Tyler Davis. The Vikings do an excellent job of limiting completions against, ranking fourth in the league in completion rate allowed at just 61.56%, but they don’t play Davante Adams every week, and they allow a well below average 10.9 yards per completion on the season.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have proven time and time again that they aim to be a team built around minimizing mistakes, limiting pass production against via a complex zone scheme, and allowing the game to come to them. A massive eight of their nine games so far this season have been decided by seven points or less (the only game that was decided by more than one score was a 30-17 win over the Seahawks). That is absolutely incredible! Kirk Cousins has turned the ball over only three times all season (two picks and one fumble lost), which allows this team to remain in almost every game. Their moderate situation-neutral rush-pass rates indicate a team looking to control the time of possession battle and capitalize on their opponents’ mistakes. Finally, this is one of the more concentrated offenses in the league, with only four regular offensive play-maker contributors (three if you don’t want to count Ty Conklin, which is valid).

This backfield is Dalvin Cook’s, and a good chunk of the offense is designed around his effectiveness. Dalvin averages the third most running back touches per game at 19.8, and we saw his targets tick back up to the levels we’ve grown accustomed to last week (four to six targets is a viable weekly expectation). The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.385 net-adjusted line yards metric in one of the more run-funnel spots the Vikings will see all year. All of that to say, Dalvin Cook is in a great spot this week. Behind Dalvin, expect Alexander Mattison to be used sparingly in a change of pace role.

The passing game runs primarily through two bodies in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, both of whom play almost every offensive snap each week. KJ Osborn typically resides in the 50-60% snap rate range, with the pass-catching corps rounded out by near every-down tight end Ty Conklin. That’s it, and that’s the beauty of this offense. Justin Jefferson’s above-average 11.6 aDOT and above-average 69.6% catch rate come together to highlight one of the league’s top up and coming young wide receivers. What is sure to be missed by the field are the 15 red zone targets Jefferson has seen this season, which ranks ninth in the league amongst all pass-catchers (four more than his teammate, Adam Thielen). Thielen’s shorter area role (9.5 aDOT) typically requires additional volume and multiple trips to the end zone to reach a GPP-worthy score, but he remains a regular contributor to this offense. KJ Osborn and Ty Conklin have two combined games of more than seven targets (each with one such game) and should be considered “bet on touchdown variance” pieces.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We’re likely to see a closely contested game in the first half, with each team almost unwilling to make offensive mistakes. It almost doesn’t matter which team asserts themselves first here, as each offense’s play-calling tendencies align almost to a T. Situation-neutral pass rates land at 58% and 57% for the Packers and Vikings, respectively. Pass rates with a lead land at 52% for each team. Pass rates when trailing land are at 59% for Green Bay and 67% for Minnesota. Considering the injuries to the offensive pieces of the Packers, the game environment would reach an optimal scenario should the Packers eventually seize control of the game, forcing the Vikings into elevated pass rates, and raising the fantasy goodness from the game overall. This stands as the likeliest scenario, but we’re likely to see a tightly contested contest in this divisional showdown. When you get two teams that are good at the same things and struggle at similar things together, in a divisional matchup nonetheless, we typically find games where there is a wide range of outcomes as far as actual game flow goes. That said, and bringing this thought full circle, it almost doesn’t matter here as either team is highly unlikely to jump out to a multi-score lead at any point, creating a game environment where each team can continue to run their desired game plan (and making it much more predictable as far as volume and range of outcomes go!). 

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Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game is likely to play out at a slow pace
• Lamar Jackson has the highest raw ceiling on the slate
• David Montgomery saw 85% of the snaps in his last game and is mispriced for his role
• The Ravens WRs have an excellent matchup

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 6-3 Ravens are coming off a “mini bye” after a disappointing loss to a Dolphins team they were expected to beat since they were starting a backup QB (Personal side complaint: if Tua Tagovailoa was healthy enough to play, which he clearly was, why didn’t he start the game? Why do teams do that?). Against a mix of Jacoby Brissett and Tua, the Ravens allowed over 300 yards passing, and it was done without (arguably) their best skill position player (Mike Gesicki) catching a pass, and Devante Parker missing the game. The Ravens are a pathetic Steelers tie against the Lions away from having given up control of the AFC North. Jim Harbaugh is one of the better coaches in the NFL, and will have his team ready to play after such a disappointing showing. With ten days to prepare for the Bears, expect a strong game from the Ravens.

The disappointing Bears defense is below average against the pass and run (19^th in DVOA/21^st in DVOA), which doesn’t present a clear path of least resistance. The Ravens should be fine with that, as they tend to run “their offense” more than adapt for an opponent. The Ravens experience success because their offense is unique, and when it’s run well, it’s difficult to stop. The Bears (like most of the Ravens opponents) will have to alter their defense to try and contain the unique things Lamar Jackson brings to the table, rather than the other way around. Expect the Ravens to attack in their typical manner, using Jackson as a hybrid QB/RB, but being far more willing to let him throw over 40 times if the game requires it than they have been in previous years.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-6 Bears are riding a four-game losing streak against the Packers/Bucs/49ers/Steelers, and while none of those teams are pushovers, only the Steelers game was competitive. This looks like a lost season for Chicago as they try to rebuild around a rookie QB that needs more time before he’s ready for the NFL. Matt Nagy can’t afford to give up, as the Bears are technically only two games out of the Wildcard, and he could lose his job if this year finishes in a disappointing fashion.

The Bears draw a Baltimore defense in Week 11 that has been more reputation that results, showing poorly against the pass (24^th in DVOA), while being middling against the run (15^th in DVOA). The Ravens are weaker against the pass, but the difference isn’t likely to tilt the Bears away from doing everything they can to hide Justin Fields. Matt Nagy wants his offense to move painfully slow when the game is close (26^th situational neutral pace), but speeded up when winning (5th pace when ahead), and slowed back down when losing (25^th in pace when behind). Those splits don’t make much sense, except when you factor in that the Bears have been willing to essentially “give up” several times this year when hopelessly behind. Nagy has limited Fields to under 30 attempts in three out of the past four games (Fields had 32 attempts in a 38-3 blowout to the Bucs), and there is every reason to expect Fields to attempt under 30 passes in this spot. The Bears will come out trying to play slowly and run, hoping something breaks their way early to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Ravens have been installed as confident six-point road favorites early in the week, with Vegas expecting them to take care of a Bears team coming off a bye. The Ravens traditionally beat up on bad defenses, and this year’s Bears squad is a bad defense. The Ravens 26 point team total feels low, with the main obstacle to them reaching that threshold being the pace at which this game is likely to play out. The Ravens main weakness has been against the pass, and the Bears set up poorly to exploit that deficiency. The most likely game flow feels highly likely in this spot, with the Ravens pulling ahead in the first half, before cruising to an easy victory late

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• If there is a game that has a chance to be overlooked on this slate, this is probably the one.
• These teams both have below average pass defenses and above average pass rates recently.
• Cincinnati plays slow, but their elite pass rate recently has covered that up for their game environments.
• As weather starts to become a factor, this is one of only two games on the main slate being played indoors — with only one game being played in warm weather.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

It has been talked about extensively over the last few weeks, but it is worth mentioning again: the Bengals ran the ball at a very high rate early in the year in an effort to protect Joe Burrow in his return from an ACL tear and over the past few weeks have become extremely pass-heavy. Cincinnati is coming off their bye week, which was preceded by an embarrassing home loss to the Browns and an ugly loss to the bottom-feeding Jets — the bye couldn’t have come at any better of a time. What better recipe to get back on track than a matchup with a Raiders team that is falling apart on and off the field right now?

Las Vegas’ defense is middling against both the pass and the run. It is hard to explain, but looking back at the Raiders’ last few games, it feels like their defense is about as average as it gets and just lets the opposing offense “be who they are.” Here is what I mean by that:

• The Chiefs were dominant with an explosive passing offense.
• The Giants failed to put up many yards or threaten for explosive plays but found a way to do just enough to win a low-scoring game.
• The Eagles were solid when they could stay balanced but struggled when forced into a pass-heavy game script.
• The Broncos were overly conservative until it was too late and then got a large amount of production in the passing game when they opened things up.
• The Bears were extremely conservative and played at a slow pace, controlling the ball and relying on their defense to win the game.

Those could all just as easily be general statements about those teams as descriptions of their games against the Raiders. The question then becomes, “if the Raiders let teams ‘be who they are, then who are the Bengals?” 

The Bengals are a team that is playing more aggressively with each passing week and is blessed with a blossoming young star quarterback, a trio of playmaking wide receivers, and an underrated all-purpose running back. I would expect the Bengals to come out of their bye very aggressively and play sharp, unlike some veteran teams who have struggled out of their bye recently (Seahawks, Bucs, Raiders, Vikings). If the Bengals are aggressive and attack the intermediate areas with Tee Higgins and downfield with Ja’Marr Chase, they should move the ball with efficiency on chunk plays.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas has struggled to run the ball all season and will likely face the same difficulties here against a top-10 Bengals rush defense (by DVOA and PFF). The Raiders are getting no push from their 31st graded offensive line, and the loss of Henry Ruggs has only created more traffic in the box for their backs to deal with. Cincinnati has been far more susceptible to the pass this year, making a high volume, short-area passing attack seem to make sense given the Raiders’ personnel.

Las Vegas has scored 26 or more points in all five of their victories this year while scoring 16 points or less in all four of their losses. Perhaps no team is more reliant on their offense to win games for them, yet also, their offense has proved almost incapable of bringing them back in games. All of the Raiders’ wins have been played from ahead or at least kept within one score at all times. This makes sense from a broader perspective, as the Raiders are lacking in talent at the skill positions, so they rely on creative play calling and catching defenses off guard to have high-end offensive outputs. In games where the Raiders fall behind and become predictable, defenses can take away what they are trying to do and tee off on them. The Raiders are much better off in this spot if they attack through the air early, when it is less predictable, in an attempt to build a lead than they would be by playing it safe and then having to turn to the pass if/when they fall behind.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likely game flow here involves both teams turning pass-heavy either by design (Bengals) or out of necessity (Raiders). As you can say with any game with heavy pass volume, the results that will follow are highly variable. The Bengals are highly likely to have success because of the talent and scheme they are bringing in, while the Raiders are not the same team they started the year as but should be able to move the ball with some regularity through the air. The Bengals play at the 31st situation-neutral pace, but their ability to attack through the air at all levels of the field and also use a playmaker out of the backfield should suppress any worries that may cause about the game’s outlook. The only other cause for concern from my perspective is the Raiders’ #1 graded pass rush by PFF against a below-average Bengals offensive line.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Welcome to the “injuries could change the entire dynamic of the game,” game of the week.
• Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have been out the past two games, and with the Cardinals on bye in Week 12, there is a legitimate concern for projecting either to play this week, with the team in contention down the stretch (yes, current reports out of Arizona are that Kyler is “nearing a return,” but keep an eye on the late week statuses of both).
• Although both teams exhibit conservative tendencies, this game has the offensive pieces to turn into a divisional shootout, assuming Kyler Murray plays.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona’s approach to this game likely depends largely on the status of quarterback Kyler Murray, who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury sustained late in their loss to the Packers three weeks ago. The Colt McCoy led Cardinals turned in a record of 1-1 in his absence, but with the Cardinals in the driver’s seat in the NFC West (and currently in a three-way tie for the best record in the NFL), and the fact that the team finally gets their bye next week, there is merit to the team giving Kyler an additional two weeks to fully heal up here. Further muddying those waters is the fact that backup quarterback Colt McCoy suffered a strained pectoral in their Week 10 loss last week and has practiced on a limited basis to start the week. The Cardinals have been a much different team this year when compared to last season (similar to the Bills), in that their pace-up nature in close games (eighth-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) has devolved into a slow-paced, balanced offense in games they are able to control with their top-five defense. Furthermore, they are a much more balanced team this season, after the offseason additions of AJ Green and James Conner gave us the sense that they would continue their pass-happy ways into the 2021 season.

The ground game became fairly straightforward when Chase Edmonds suffered an ankle injury that required a stint on the IR two weeks ago, paving the way for James Conner to act as a true workhorse running back (77% and 82% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks), leading to games of 26 opportunities and 14 opportunities (extremely negative game script). Consider Conner a favorite to end the week with a top-five raw workload at the running back position, in a matchup that yields an average 4.22 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Seattle defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (32.0). Behind Conner, expect Eno Benjamin to operate in a loose change of pace role. The possible return of Kyler Murray would greatly strengthen the expected fantasy range of outcomes for Conner, simultaneously boosting his raw matchup (the threat of a rushing quarterback) and the overall effectiveness of the Arizona offense.

Although the absence of alpha wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins supposedly condenses the expected pass volume, we’ve seen a relatively ineffective offense in his absence as the team deals with multiple changes to offensive personnel (the absences of Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and AJ Green, and the midseason acquisition of tight end Zach Ertz). It appears likely that Nuk will miss his third contest in a row, paving the way for Christian Kirk to once again be treated as this offense’s de facto number one (96% and 85% snap rates past two games). While not the prototypical alpha, Kirk has shown to be capable in all offensive alignments. The direct fill-in for Nuk has been Antoine Wesley for consecutive weeks, playing 77% and 76% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks. Rondale Moore took the biggest hit with the return of AJ Green to the lineup, who missed the team’s Week 9 contest, playing only 33% of the offensive snaps in Week 10. I’d expect all of Christian Kirk, AJ Green, Zach Ertz, and the aforementioned James Conner to operate as near every-down players this week, and all would see a significant boost to their individual ranges of outcomes should Kyler return. Seattle’s defense ranks middle of the pack in both completion rate allowed (15^th) and yards allowed per reception (16^th).

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Man, oh man, the Seahawks looked bad last week, and man, oh man, Russell Wilson looked not healthy last week. With that out of the way, the Seahawks continue their slow-paced, conservative-balanced approach on offense, not fully willing to unleash Russ until absolutely required to. This week also marks the 89^th week in a row where head coach Pete Carroll has stated that the team needs to run the football more. Pete’s so cute when his team fails. All kidding aside, Pete Carroll seems to have this idea that the only way to win football games with an underperforming defense is to slow the game down, run the football, and keep the ball away from his opponents (as if scoring more points than the opponent won’t win games). Keep that in mind as we continue our exploration into this game.

The establish the run crew will be delighted to know that Pete Carroll is still a head coach in the NFL; however, this team’s backfield became a little less convoluted over the previous two weeks, where Alex Collins served as the clear early-down back and Travis Homer served as the clear change of pace and passing down back (compared to earlier where Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas were also in the mix). Consider each highly reliant on game flow to drive their expected volume. The matchup on the ground yields a respectable 4.29 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the Cardinals have really clamped down on opposing backfields in the red zone, ceding only three total touchdowns to the position.

Tight end Gerald Everett appears in danger of missing this week after failing to practice through Thursday. As such, expect Will Dissly to step into the lead role, while fellow tight end Colby Parkinson jumps up to a 60-65% snap rate (because, establish the run). Wide receiver Tyler Lockett has out-snapped DK Metcalf in every game since Week 2, which should continue to be the case moving forward. Freddie Swain continued to operate as the WR3 for the Seahawks after rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge returned from a lengthy absence last week. In all, we know this drill with the pass game by now: moderate volume and intermediate-to-deep roles make Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf highly reliant on volume and trips to the paint, but each carries pretty significant ceilings.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Alrighty then, we have one team that would prefer to slow the game down when playing with a lead, that is also struggling through a multitude of injuries (Cardinals), and we have one team who would prefer to “establish the run so we can hide an underperforming defense and attempt to win the game in the fourth quarter,” that is also playing with a quarterback not yet 100% healthy. That said, the actual flow of this game likely depends largely on Kyler Murray’s health and the Cardinals ability to assert control on the scoreboard. In every viable game script, however, we should have at minimum one of these two teams attempting to slow the game down, with the likeliest scenario (Kyler returns and the Cardinals can control the game through their defense and sustained drives) leading to a game environment that is largely underwhelming. As such, I am much more interested in one-offs and correlated pairings than I am in attacking this one with a game stack or two.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Five of the nine games that the Cowboys have played so far this year have gone for 60 combined points or more.
• Six of the nine games that the Chiefs have played so far this year have gone for 54 combined points or more.
• Dallas ranks 23^rd in red zone touchdown rate allowed at 65.38%, while the Chiefs rank 27^th at 68.75%.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire needs to put in a solid week of practice before the Chiefs activate him, but a return is possible this week.
• The number one and number two most efficient offenses in the league.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Dallas pass rates when leading, in neutral situations, and when trailing, stand at 46%, 56%, and 66% on the season, which all rank in the top ten in the league in each respective category. Dallas defense also ranks fifth in drive success rate allowed. So, how in the hell have over half of the Cowboys games gone for 60 points or more, with half of the remaining four games coming in blowouts over the previous two weeks? They weren’t even all against top offenses, as they combined for more than 60 points against the Bucs, the Eagles, the Panthers, the Giants, and the Patriots. It’s a good question, I’m glad you asked! The Dallas defense ranks seventh in the league in opponent completion rate allowed but 25^th in yards allowed per completion. This team has repeatedly been a victim of the deep ball, a recipe for relative disaster against the high octane Chiefs passing attack (third-most passing yards per game at 295.1). We also get a pretty solid glimpse into the tendencies of this offense through their changing pass rates in different situations. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has designed this offense to maximize the talents available to him on the roster and is continually putting this team in the best position to succeed.

In six of the seven games that weren’t blowouts, Ezekiel Elliott has seen a 70% or greater snap rate, leading to an average of 20.6 running back opportunities per game over that seven-game sample. Although no longer asked to carry the football 30+ times as he was earlier in his career, Zeke is still very much a major part of this offense. Spelling Zeke is backup extraordinaire Tony Pollard, who has seen anywhere between six and 18 running back opportunities in games this season. The matchup on the ground yields an ungodly 4.81 net-adjusted line yards metric against an underperforming Chiefs defense allowing 23.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (held down by the only six total touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs this season, which is interesting considering their struggles in the red zone).

Quarterback Dak Prescott has multiple touchdown passes in all but one healthy game this season but has only two games all year over 30 fantasy points, a nod to the balanced nature of this Cowboys offense. Five of his eight games started have seen him attempt 32 passes or fewer, with an overtime game against the Patriots, and a Week 1 shootout against the Bucs standing as two outlier games at over 50 pass attempts apiece. All of that was to highlight the moderate weekly volume expectation of the Dallas pass-catchers in all but extreme game environments, as all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs command their fair share of the pass volume. Furthering that assertion, all Dallas pass-catchers have combined for only four games of an individual seeing double-digit targets. Put another way, this is a spread pass offense. As such, individual pass-catchers must rely on efficiency and touchdowns in order to provide GPP-worthy scores. Keep that in mind as we dive further into this offense below.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

We’ve talked extensively about the offensive tendencies of the Chiefs in this space, so I’ll simply go over the most pertinent information for this game. Patrick Mahomes ranks second in the league in total intended air yards, and the Cowboys defense has struggled with discipline on the back end (overly aggressive). The biggest possible change for the Chiefs this week is the possible return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has been out of action since Week 5 with a knee injury. Even through all the perceived struggles of this Chiefs offense, they maintain their hold as the most efficient offense in the league from a drive success rate perspective, have scored the third-most points per drive, and pick up the most yards per drive. 

Should CEH return to action this week, I would expect more of a split backfield than what we have seen so far this season, with CEH and Darrel Williams splitting the “lead back” role and Jerick McKinnon on hand for the back most likely to be used in obvious pass situations. That muddies the picture a good bit when considering any member of this backfield. Should CEH miss, it is likeliest that Williams maintains the same lead-back role that has led to an average of 19.4 running back opportunities per game in the absence of CEH. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.30 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an offensive line that has largely struggled in most run-blocking metrics. Dallas has allowed just 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.

The pass game all but starts and stops with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who combine for 49.8% of the team’s total available targets on the year. Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, and Josh Gordon have been jockeying back and forth for snaps over the previous three games, with a single receiver amongst those four playing over 60% of the offensive snaps just twice over that time. Again, we’ll get into the matchup a bit more below.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

These two teams like to score points. These two teams also have been susceptible to giving up points. The Cowboys struggle with deep passing via an overly aggressive secondary, while the Chiefs primarily force teams to march the field while limiting splash plays against. Kellen Moore knows this and is likely to design a game plan around his running backs and short-area passing in an attempt to maximize his team’s chances of coming away with a victory. All of this comes together to make the likeliest game flow one of a back and forth, high scoring affair, in which each team is well equipped to attack the weakness of the opposing defense. We’re also unlikely to see one team pull away from the other, giving us a likeliest game environment ripe for fantasy goodness. Okay, that was already too many words to tell you something you already know: this game presents the best game environment on paper on the slate.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::