Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 4:25pm Eastern

Cards (
20.75) at

Hawks (
24.25)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
5th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
6th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
10th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
8th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
23rd DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
27th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
6th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Welcome to the “injuries could change the entire dynamic of the game,” game of the week.
  • Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have been out the past two games, and with the Cardinals on bye in Week 12, there is a legitimate concern for projecting either to play this week, with the team in contention down the stretch (yes, current reports out of Arizona are that Kyler is “nearing a return,” but keep an eye on the late week statuses of both).
  • Although both teams exhibit conservative tendencies, this game has the offensive pieces to turn into a divisional shootout, assuming Kyler Murray plays.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona’s approach to this game likely depends largely on the status of quarterback Kyler Murray, who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury sustained late in their loss to the Packers three weeks ago. The Colt McCoy led Cardinals turned in a record of 1-1 in his absence, but with the Cardinals in the driver’s seat in the NFC West (and currently in a three-way tie for the best record in the NFL), and the fact that the team finally gets their bye next week, there is merit to the team giving Kyler an additional two weeks to fully heal up here. Further muddying those waters is the fact that backup quarterback Colt McCoy suffered a strained pectoral in their Week 10 loss last week and has practiced on a limited basis to start the week. The Cardinals have been a much different team this year when compared to last season (similar to the Bills), in that their pace-up nature in close games (eighth-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) has devolved into a slow-paced, balanced offense in games they are able to control with their top-five defense. Furthermore, they are a much more balanced team this season, after the offseason additions of AJ Green and James Conner gave us the sense that they would continue their pass-happy ways into the 2021 season.

The ground game became fairly straightforward when Chase Edmonds suffered an ankle injury that required a stint on the IR two weeks ago, paving the way for James Conner to act as a true workhorse running back (77% and 82% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks), leading to games of 26 opportunities and 14 opportunities (extremely negative game script). Consider Conner a favorite to end the week with a top-five raw workload at the running back position, in a matchup that yields an average 4.22 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Seattle defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (32.0). Behind Conner, expect Eno Benjamin to operate in a loose change of pace role. The possible return of Kyler Murray would greatly strengthen the expected fantasy range of outcomes for Conner, simultaneously boosting his raw matchup (the threat of a rushing quarterback) and the overall effectiveness of the Arizona offense.

Although the absence of alpha wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins supposedly condenses the expected pass volume, we’ve seen a relatively ineffective offense in his absence as the team deals with multiple changes to offensive personnel (the absences of Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and AJ Green, and the midseason acquisition of tight end Zach Ertz). It appears likely that Nuk will miss his third contest in a row, paving the way for Christian Kirk to once again be treated as this offense’s de facto number one (96% and 85% snap rates past two games). While not the prototypical alpha, Kirk has shown to be capable in all offensive alignments. The direct fill-in for Nuk has been Antoine Wesley for consecutive weeks, playing 77% and 76% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks. Rondale Moore took the biggest hit with the return of AJ Green to the lineup, who missed the team’s Week 9 contest, playing only 33% of the offensive snaps in Week 10. I’d expect all of Christian Kirk, AJ Green, Zach Ertz, and the aforementioned James Conner to operate as near every-down players this week, and all would see a significant boost to their individual ranges of outcomes should Kyler return. Seattle’s defense ranks middle of the pack in both completion rate allowed (15th) and yards allowed per reception (16th).

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Man, oh man, the Seahawks looked bad last week, and man, oh man, Russell Wilson looked not healthy last week. With that out of the way, the Seahawks continue their slow-paced, conservative-balanced approach on offense, not fully willing to unleash Russ until absolutely required to. This week also marks the 89th week in a row where head coach Pete Carroll has stated that the team needs to run the football more. Pete’s so cute when his team fails. All kidding aside, Pete Carroll seems to have this idea that the only way to win football games with an underperforming defense is to slow the game down, run the football, and keep the ball away from his opponents (as if scoring more points than the opponent won’t win games). Keep that in mind as we continue our exploration into this game.

The establish the run crew will be delighted to know that Pete Carroll is still a head coach in the NFL; however, this team’s backfield became a little less convoluted over the previous two weeks, where Alex Collins served as the clear early-down back and Travis Homer served as the clear change of pace and passing down back (compared to earlier where Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas were also in the mix). Consider each highly reliant on game flow to drive their expected volume. The matchup on the ground yields a respectable 4.29 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the Cardinals have really clamped down on opposing backfields in the red zone, ceding only three total touchdowns to the position.

Tight end Gerald Everett appears in danger of missing this week after failing to practice through Thursday. As such, expect Will Dissly to step into the lead role, while fellow tight end Colby Parkinson jumps up to a 60-65% snap rate (because, establish the run). Wide receiver Tyler Lockett has out-snapped DK Metcalf in every game since Week 2, which should continue to be the case moving forward. Freddie Swain continued to operate as the WR3 for the Seahawks after rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge returned from a lengthy absence last week. In all, we know this drill with the pass game by now: moderate volume and intermediate-to-deep roles make Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf highly reliant on volume and trips to the paint, but each carries pretty significant ceilings.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Alrighty then, we have one team that would prefer to slow the game down when playing with a lead, that is also struggling through a multitude of injuries (Cardinals), and we have one team who would prefer to “establish the run so we can hide an underperforming defense and attempt to win the game in the fourth quarter,” that is also playing with a quarterback not yet 100% healthy. That said, the actual flow of this game likely depends largely on Kyler Murray’s health and the Cardinals ability to assert control on the scoreboard. In every viable game script, however, we should have at minimum one of these two teams attempting to slow the game down, with the likeliest scenario (Kyler returns and the Cardinals can control the game through their defense and sustained drives) leading to a game environment that is largely underwhelming. As such, I am much more interested in one-offs and correlated pairings than I am in attacking this one with a game stack or two.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • 4th highest total that has moved down 2 pts
  • ARZ favored by 1 pt
  • ARZ had won every game until last week (7 straight)
  • ARZ/SEA totals w/ Cliff Kingsbury & Kyler Murray (2 seasons): 49 // 71 // 40 // 37
  • Teams are split at 2-2
  • The 71 pt total game went to OT, each team scored 30+, the only game where either teams reached 30+
  • SEA has allowed only 12.3 pts/g the last 3 (Packers, Jags, Saints)
  • ARZ pts last 3: 10 (McCoy) // 31 // 21 // Avg-20.7
  • SEA pts last 3: 0 (Wilson) // 31 (Geno Smith) // 10 (Geno)
  • ARZ pts allowed: 34 // 17 // 24 // Avg-25.0

Kyler Murray:

  • Murray missed the last 2 with an ankle injury
  • In 8 games Murray has 2 with 300+ pass yds (316-WK 3, 400-WK 4)
  • Pass TDs: 0 // 3 // 4 // 1 // 2 // 0 // 1 // 2 // 1
  • Murray has 5, 6, or 7 rush atts in every game (6.1 atts/g)
  • He scored a rushing TD in the first 3 games of the season but has none since
  • His longest rush is only 18 yds on the season
  • Murray ($7.9k) topped 30+ DK pts Weeks 1 & 2 // Since: 11.1 // 22.4 // 25.6 // 13.7 // 22.6 // 22.5
  • To pay off: 3x-23.7 // 4x-31.6 // 5x-39.5
  • Price range: $7.6k (Week 1)-$8.5k (Week 7) 
  • SEA allows the 11th least DK pts to QBs (18.5)

ARZ WRs:

  • Hopkins may miss his 2nd straight game (hamstring)
  • Tgts last 2 w/ no Hopkins or Murray: Christian Kirk (8,6) // Rondale Moore (4 5) // AJ Green (5, DNP) // Antoine Wesley (1,3)
  • Snaps last 2: Kirk-(47,67) // Moore-(18, 7) // Green-(38,DNP) // Wesley-42,54)
  • Kirk has lined up in the slot on 77% of snaps
  • His price is a season high this week ($5.7k) // Season range: $4.5k-$5.7k
  • SEA allows 35.9 DK pts to WRs (13th least), 10.6 yds/rec (17th), & 275.3 rec yds/g (4th most)

Zach Ertz:

  • Since joining ARZ: 4:46 (6 tgts) // 3:27 (5 tgts) // 4:42 (4 tgts) // 3:66:1 TD (5 tgts)
  • $4.8k is a season high price
  • SEA allows 13.0 DK pts/g to TEs (15th least)

ARZ RBs:

  • Chase Edmonds (IR) has missed the last 2
  • James Conner last 2: Rush-10:39:1 TD Rec-3:25 (4 tgts) // Rush-21:96:2 TDs Rec-5:77:1TD
  • Eno Benjamin last 2: 6:22 // 9:39:1 TD 
  • Conner has a rush TD in 7 of 10 games + 1 rec TD
  • DK pts/g: 15.4 // 40.3 // 14.2 // 12.4 // 8.1 // 10.7 // 20.6 // 18.3 // 2.6 // 5.3
  • SEA allows the 2nd most DK pts to RBs (32.0)
  • ARZ played SF in Conner’s 40.3 pt game // SF allows the 13th most DK pts/g to RBs (24.4)

Russell Wilson:

  • DK pts last 4 vs ARZ: 20.08 // 35.92 // 10.96 // 14.3
  • Wilson completed only 50% of his passes last week
  • DK pts: 7.6 (injured) // 10.1 // 22.6 // 16.6 // 26.3 // 27.1
  • He has one game w// 300+ pass yds & hasn’t had a game w/ 3+ pass TDs since Week 1 (4 TDs)
  • SEA ranks 31st in pass atts/g (28.9) & 30th in yds/g (202.4)
  • SEA QB sacks/g: 3.2 (2nd most) // ARZ QB sacks/g: 2.5 (9th most) 
  • His price ($6.5k) is a season low
  • Price Range: $6.5k-$7.6k
  • ARZ allows 16.8 DK pts/g to QBs (6th least), 5th least pass yds/g (206.4), & 11th least pass TDs/g 1.4

DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett:

  • Lockett had his biggest game of his career in the 1st matchup that went to OT last season (15:200:3 TDs:20 tgts:56.0 DK pts)
  • He had one of his worst games in the second matchup in 2019 (2.2 DK pts)
  • Avg DK pts vs SEA last 4 matchups: Metcalf-(4.9) // Lockett-(22.25)
  • Tgts last 3 games: Metcalf-(8, 6, 5) // Lockett-(8, 13, 3)
  • Metcalf has 2 10+ tgt games // Lockett has 3
  • Lockett DK pts: 4.3 // 29.2 // 3.2 // 5.5 // 10.7 // 6.4 // 7.1 // 34.8 // 29.0
  • Metcalf DK pts: 5.8 // 22.3 // 17.6 // 11.8 // 26.8 // 16.5 // 25.7 // 11.3 // 16.0
  • ARZ 20+ DK pt WRs allowed: Donovan Peoples-Jones (29.1-WK 6) // Van Jefferson (21.0-WK 4) // KJ Osborn (20.1-WK 2) 
  • No WR priced over $3.9k has scored 20 DK pts vs ARZ
  • ARZ allows the ninth least DK pts to WRs (34.6), 5th least rec yds/g (206.4), allows the 2nd to lowest yds/rec (9.2)

SEA TEs:

  • Tgts: Everett: (8, 2, 3, 3, 5, 2, 2) // Dissly (2, 2, 4, 2, 1, 3) 
  • SEA TEs have only two TDs (Everett-1, Dissly-1)
  • ARZ allows the least DK pts/g to TEs (7.6)

SEA RBs:

  • Chris Carson is unlikely to return from IR this week
  • Alex Collins atts w/o Carson: 10 // 10 // 16 // 20 // 15 
  • No other SEA RB has over 7 atts in a game since Carson was placed on IR
  • Collins season high DK pts was 19.8 pts vs PIT Week 6
  • Including Carson, no SEA RB has scored over 20 DK pts
  • SEA RBs have been targeted the least of any team (34)
  • ARZ allows the 14th least rush yds/g (116.6) // SEA ranks 22nd in rush yds/g (99.8) 
  • SEA atts 23.6 rushes/g (9th least)
  • ARZ allows the 12th least DK pts/g to RBs (23.3)