Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Jets will be starting Joe Flacco, who brings career 6.8 yards per attempt and 10.9 yards per completion marks to the table against a defense allowing 42.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, while ranking 28th in the league in yards allowed per pass.
- The Miami defense blitzes at the second highest rate in the league, a large contributing factor to the Jets’ decision to start Flacco here.
- New York’s pace of play jumps from a 32.22 second per play situation-neutral mark all the way up to 24.85 seconds per play in the second half this season, which is a significant jump. That also means that Jets game environments are highly reliant on their opposition to generate positive environments.
- The Dolphins will be playing this game with a depleted pass-catching corps and a quarterback with a “banged up finger” on his throwing hand.
How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::
Miami’s situation-neutral pass rates in all games in which Tua Tagovailoa started sits at 64% this season, a tick below their season average of 66%. Their pace of play sits at a 14th-ranked 30.30 situation-neutral mark and eighth-ranked 26.61 mark overall. In neutral-to-positive game flows, Tua averages just over 13 pass attempts per half (only six quarters in this sample size this season), as the team has been forced into continual negative game scripts due to an underperforming defense. Speaking of that defense, the Dolphins blitz at the league’s second highest rate and play elevated man coverages because of it. Miami’s pass rates are top five in the league in almost every split (first half, second half, with a lead, with a lead in the second half, etc), meaning the expected pass volume this week depends almost entirely on Tua’s health.
Myles Gaskin has emerged as the borderline workhorse running back on this offense in the absence of Malcolm Brown, who has already been ruled out for this weekend. Over the last four weeks, his snap rates have been 63%, 58%, 72%, and 61%, leading to running back opportunity counts of 19, 16, 26, and 16. The efficiency has been extremely lacking behind an atrocious offensive line, but the volume has been, and should continue to be there. Expect Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird to operate sparingly in change of pace roles. The matchup on the ground yields a gross-on-paper 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric, held low via Miami’s second to last rank. Four to six targets with 14-16 rush attempts should be considered Gaskin’s standard range of outcomes as far as expected workload goes here.
Preston Williams appeared to remain in the proverbial doghouse in Week 10 after being held out for two consecutive contests, landing a modest 26% snap rate. Albert Wilson continues to operate in a modified third wide receiver role, primarily out of the slot, leaving Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki as the only true every-down pass-catchers on this offense. The second wide receiver role was split between Williams, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford last week, and unless Preston is removed from the doghouse, all three are likely to split the role again here. Via the previous discussion, Miami has really only controlled the game environment for six quarters with Tua under center, leading to an average of 13.3 pass attempts per quarter. Are we likely to only see 27 pass attempts here? No, I’d say we’re likeliest to see somewhere in the range of 32-35 pass attempts from the Dolphins based on their season-to-date tendencies, leaving seven to nine targets for Waddle, six to eight targets for Gesicki, four to six targets for the aforementioned running back Myles Gaskin, and 15 or so targets split amongst Albert Wilson, Preston Williams, Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, Salvon Ahmed, and Patrick Laird. Not a ton to love here.
How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::
Things get shaken up a good bit for the Jets this week with the news that Joe Flacco will garner the start. Number two overall pick Zach Wilson apparently isn’t healthy enough to return to a starting role and the team is moving on from the Mike White experiment, paving the way for Flacco to draw the start after being recently acquired from the Eagles. On the season, the Jets rank second in the league in situation-neutral pass rates, checking in just behind the Bucs at 67%. Their situation-neutral pace of play ranks 25th at 32.22 seconds per play, which jumps to a third-ranked 24.85 seconds per play in the second half (that, my friends, is a substantial jump!). We should consider the Jets a team that required outside influence to force the issue as far as game environment goes, which has been the case fairly often this year.
The return of Tevin Coleman muddied the waters of this Jets backfield further, who returned to his standard, pre-injury role as the primary early-down, change of pace rusher. Those snaps came to the direct detriment of starter Michael Carter, while Ty Johnson maintained his role as the primary “obvious pass down” back. The pure rushing matchup returns a below-average 4.015 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a slight downgrade against the pass-funnel nature of the Dolphins defense. The biggest impact to this backfield, more so than the return of Tevin Coleman, is the change at quarterback, as Flacco has targeted the running back position at a whopping 23.5% over his career. For perspective, the NFL average for running back target rate this season is just over 18%. This would seem to result in a significant boost to the back on the field the most in Michael Carter, who would still require efficiency and multiple trips to the end zone in order to provide a GPP-worthy score, but who also sees a slightly elevated floor compared to weeks prior (more on this below).
Similar to our discussion on the running back position, we can gain a glimpse of the expected target distribution for the Jets this week by examining the career positional target rates for new starter Joe Flacco. Flacco has targeted the slot wide receiver position at one of the lower rates of qualifying quarterbacks over his career at just over 16%. What does this mean? When we take a big picture look at Flacco and his underlying metrics over his career, we find that his first read is fairly often a perimeter wide receiver on intermediate-to-deep routes, and if forced into second and third reads (either through pressure or sticky coverage on the back end), he is more than willing to simply check the ball down to his running back. Back to Michael Carter, who is in a route on 42.7% of the team’s passing plays this season. When we then consider the heavy blitz rates of the Miami defense, we’re left with a good path to six to eight targets for Michael Carter here, with possible paths to more should Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage continue. Speaking of those struggles, Davis holds a 12.0 yards per target mark against zone this season and a 6.0 yards per target mark against man, a glaring split to consider against the heavy man coverages shown by the Dolphins this season with the return to health by perimeter corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So, while Davis is the “deep threat” in this offense (13.4 aDOT, compared to 5.4 for Jamison Crowder and 11.9 for Elijah Moore), the chances for him returning a strong GPP-worthy score here are much lower than I initially thought, before diving into the setup of this game. In all, no one player profiles as a strong on-paper play from the Jets this week with Flacco at quarterback, although Michael Carter should be considered the top play from this team.
Likeliest Game flow ::
Because the Jets don’t force the issue on their own, but they up their pace of play to extreme levels if forced to do so, the overall game environment from this one depends almost entirely on Miami’s ability to put points up on the scoreboard in the first half. Considering the heavy injuries to Miami’s pass-catching corps, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ailing finger injury, and Miami’s propensity to let games come to them depending on their defense’s ability to limit scoring, we’re left with a situation where the percentage solution here is a game environment largely devoid of paths to upside. To put that another way, in order for this game to really take off, it would likely require aggression to be initiated by Miami, which we are extremely unlikely to see here considering the current state of the Dolphins. That gives us a likeliest game flow where the first half is played to a relative slugfest, with Miami eventually asserting control later in the game. Joe Flacco’s career 61.7% completion rate and low touchdown totals (only 225 passing scores in 175 career starts) make first-half success for the Jets highly unlikely here, particularly considering de facto alpha Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage so far this year. Since the Dolphins are likely to take a conservative approach with a depleted pass-catching corps and an injury to the throwing hand of their starting quarterback, and since the Jets don’t show aggression unless forced to do so, we’re likeliest to see a game decided late in the fourth quarter or by the Miami defense. All of that to say, this game environment is not one to go out of our way to attack this week.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Alex88 >>
- Vegas total of 45 is the fourth lowest on the week
- MIA averages the fifth lowest ppg, NYJ averages the sixth lowest
- NYJ allows the most ppg in the league (32.9)
- MIA allows 25.2 ppg, ninth most
- MIA is coming off an upset of BAL, as an +8.5 underdog
- NYJ has allowed 24+ pts in all but one game, 30+ in the last four games including two 45 pt beatdowns and 54 pts to NE
- Per numberFire, MIA ranks 20th in adjusted seconds per play and third in adjusted pass rate
- NYJ ranks 24th in adjusted seconds per play and ninth in adjusted pass rate
- Ranks 24th in PFF passing grade
- 7.0 YPA ranks tied for 27th and 7.7 ADoT ranks tied for 28th
- DK log: 17.18 // 25.36 // 28.54 // 16.2
- If only including games he started and finished, his 21.82 DK pts would rank in the top 10 among QBs
- NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.1)
- Six out of nine opposing QBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. NYJ: Sam Darnold 20.06 // Matt Ryan 24.58 // Mac Jones 25.18 // Joe Burrow 21.26 // Carson Wentz 24.18 // Josh Allen 24.94
MIA Passing Attack
- MIA uses 11 personnel at the second lowest rate in the league at 32% (league average is 59%) and 12 personnel at the highest rate by far at 58% (average is 22%)
- Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 83.8% // Mike Gesicki 73.1% // Durham Smythe 52.5% // Adam Shaheen 37.9% // Mack Hollins 36.7%
- Target counts for the last two weeks (Parker was placed on IR following Week 8’s 11 target game): Waddle 16 // Gesicki 15 // Albert Wilson 7 // Hollins 7 // Shaheen 6 // Isaiah Ford 4 // Smythe 3
- Waddle has yet to hit 20 DK pts, but he has hit double digits in six out of 10 games
- Hollins has hit double digits twice, Wilson and Ford have yet to do so
- NYJ ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.4)
- There have only been six WR scores of 15+ vs. NYJ: DJ Moore 15.4 // Kendrick Bourne 15.8 // Gabriel Davis 16.5 // Michael Pittman 17.4 // Tyler Boyd 19.74 // Stefon Diggs 33.2
- Among all qualified TEs, Gesicki ranks fourth in air yards, ninth in target share, fourth in air yard market share, and seventh in WOPR
- Despite scoring 0 pts last week and in Week 1, Gesicki’s 11.4 DK ppg still ranks ninth among TEs
- DK log: 0 // 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7 // 8.3 // 22.5 // 21.5 // 9.8 // 9.4 // 0
- NYJ ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.1)
- Kyle Pitts had the only must have TE score against NYJ (29.9)
- No other TE has hit 15 pts
- Among qualified RBs, Gaskin ranks 12th in target share, 12th in WOPR, and 22nd in RBOPR
- In the last two weeks, his 41 total touches ranks sixth
- He scored 16.7 and 5.5 DK pts in those two weeks
- His only GPP worthy score was 31.9 @ TB
- He has no other 20+ DK pt scores
- NYJ ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (40.5)
- Notable opposing RB scores: Nyheim Hines 20.8 // Joe Mixon 25.1 // CMC 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Jonathan Taylor 37
- Since 2014, averages 15.87 DK ppg
- MIA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (21.5)
- Opposing QB scores: Mac Jones 15.24 // Josh Allen 17.66 // Derek Carr 25.24 // Carson Wentz 17.92 // Tom Brady 40.74 // Trevor Lawrence 19.86 // Matt Ryan 22.44 // Josh Allen 29.46 // Tyrod Taylor 8.9 // Lamar Jackson 16.42
NYJ Passing Attack
- Snap share: Ryan Griffin 63.6% // Corey Davis 60.3% // Elijah Moore 52% // Jamison Crowder 49% // Tyler Kroft 43.6% // Keelan Cole 42.6%
- Target share: Davis 13.6% // Moore 12.7% // Crowder 11.9% // Braxton Berrios 8.6% // Cole 8% // Griffin 7.5% // Kroft 4.2%
- Among qualified WRs, Davis is 23rd in air yard market share
- Davis’s DK log: 26.7 // 2.8 // 9.1 // 24.1 // 8.5 // 14.7 // 13.3
- Moore’s DK log: 0.7 // 8.7 // 5.2 // 10.2 // 13.1 // 27.4 // 13.4
- Crowder’s DK log: 19.1 // 8.4 // 7.4 // 17.4 // 18.8 // 5
- No other WR has hit 15 DK pts
- MIA ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (42.3)
- Notable opposing WR scores: Stefon Diggs 16 // Russell Gage 16.7 // Nelson Agholor 18.2 // Hunter Renfrow 18.7 // Cole Beasley 24 // Marvin Jones 26 // Mike Evans 32.3 // Antonio Brown 34.4
- There have only been two TE scores in the double digits: Tyler Kroft 10 (Week 8 @ CIN) // Ryan Griffin 12.8 (Week 9 vs. IND)
- MIA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.6)
- Notable opposing TE scores: Darren Waller 10.4 // Mark Andrews 18.3 // Mo Alie-Cox 19.2 // Kyle Pitts 26.3
- Michael Carter took command of the backfield starting in Week 7
- Snap counts since then: Carter 191 // Ty Johnson 102 // Tevin Coleman 17 (all in Week 10)
- Target counts: Carter 31 // Johnson 24 // Coleman 3
- Touch counts: Carter 77 // Johnson 33 // Coleman 6
- Among qualified RBs, Carter ranks 13th in goal line share, eighth in total targets, ninth in target share, ninth in WOPR, and 11th in RBOPR
- Carter’s DK log since Week 7: 17.4 // 32.2 // 9.6 // 18.2
- MIA ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.2)
- Notable opposing RB scores: Damien Harris 15.7 // Zack Moss 16.4 // Devin Singletary 17.1 // James Robinson 19.1 // Leonard Fournette 21 // Jonathan Taylor 23.4 // Peyton Barber 26.2