Dolphins (

24.25) at
Jets (

20.25)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Jets will be starting Joe Flacco, who brings career 6.8 yards per attempt and 10.9 yards per completion marks to the table against a defense allowing 42.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, while ranking 28^th in the league in yards allowed per pass.
• The Miami defense blitzes at the second highest rate in the league, a large contributing factor to the Jets’ decision to start Flacco here.
• New York’s pace of play jumps from a 32.22 second per play situation-neutral mark all the way up to 24.85 seconds per play in the second half this season, which is a significant jump. That also means that Jets game environments are highly reliant on their opposition to generate positive environments.
• The Dolphins will be playing this game with a depleted pass-catching corps and a quarterback with a “banged up finger” on his throwing hand.

How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s situation-neutral pass rates in all games in which Tua Tagovailoa started sits at 64% this season, a tick below their season average of 66%. Their pace of play sits at a 14^th-ranked 30.30 situation-neutral mark and eighth-ranked 26.61 mark overall. In neutral-to-positive game flows, Tua averages just over 13 pass attempts per half (only six quarters in this sample size this season), as the team has been forced into continual negative game scripts due to an underperforming defense. Speaking of that defense, the Dolphins blitz at the league’s second highest rate and play elevated man coverages because of it. Miami’s pass rates are top five in the league in almost every split (first half, second half, with a lead, with a lead in the second half, etc), meaning the expected pass volume this week depends almost entirely on Tua’s health.

Myles Gaskin has emerged as the borderline workhorse running back on this offense in the absence of Malcolm Brown, who has already been ruled out for this weekend. Over the last four weeks, his snap rates have been 63%, 58%, 72%, and 61%, leading to running back opportunity counts of 19, 16, 26, and 16. The efficiency has been extremely lacking behind an atrocious offensive line, but the volume has been, and should continue to be there. Expect Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird to operate sparingly in change of pace roles. The matchup on the ground yields a gross-on-paper 3.98 net-adjusted line yards metric, held low via Miami’s second to last rank. Four to six targets with 14-16 rush attempts should be considered Gaskin’s standard range of outcomes as far as expected workload goes here.

Preston Williams appeared to remain in the proverbial doghouse in Week 10 after being held out for two consecutive contests, landing a modest 26% snap rate. Albert Wilson continues to operate in a modified third wide receiver role, primarily out of the slot, leaving Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki as the only true every-down pass-catchers on this offense. The second wide receiver role was split between Williams, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford last week, and unless Preston is removed from the doghouse, all three are likely to split the role again here. Via the previous discussion, Miami has really only controlled the game environment for six quarters with Tua under center, leading to an average of 13.3 pass attempts per quarter. Are we likely to only see 27 pass attempts here? No, I’d say we’re likeliest to see somewhere in the range of 32-35 pass attempts from the Dolphins based on their season-to-date tendencies, leaving seven to nine targets for Waddle, six to eight targets for Gesicki, four to six targets for the aforementioned running back Myles Gaskin, and 15 or so targets split amongst Albert Wilson, Preston Williams, Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, Salvon Ahmed, and Patrick Laird. Not a ton to love here.

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

Things get shaken up a good bit for the Jets this week with the news that Joe Flacco will garner the start. Number two overall pick Zach Wilson apparently isn’t healthy enough to return to a starting role and the team is moving on from the Mike White experiment, paving the way for Flacco to draw the start after being recently acquired from the Eagles. On the season, the Jets rank second in the league in situation-neutral pass rates, checking in just behind the Bucs at 67%. Their situation-neutral pace of play ranks 25^th at 32.22 seconds per play, which jumps to a third-ranked 24.85 seconds per play in the second half (that, my friends, is a substantial jump!). We should consider the Jets a team that required outside influence to force the issue as far as game environment goes, which has been the case fairly often this year. 

The return of Tevin Coleman muddied the waters of this Jets backfield further, who returned to his standard, pre-injury role as the primary early-down, change of pace rusher. Those snaps came to the direct detriment of starter Michael Carter, while Ty Johnson maintained his role as the primary “obvious pass down” back. The pure rushing matchup returns a below-average 4.015 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a slight downgrade against the pass-funnel nature of the Dolphins defense. The biggest impact to this backfield, more so than the return of Tevin Coleman, is the change at quarterback, as Flacco has targeted the running back position at a whopping 23.5% over his career. For perspective, the NFL average for running back target rate this season is just over 18%. This would seem to result in a significant boost to the back on the field the most in Michael Carter, who would still require efficiency and multiple trips to the end zone in order to provide a GPP-worthy score, but who also sees a slightly elevated floor compared to weeks prior (more on this below).

Similar to our discussion on the running back position, we can gain a glimpse of the expected target distribution for the Jets this week by examining the career positional target rates for new starter Joe Flacco. Flacco has targeted the slot wide receiver position at one of the lower rates of qualifying quarterbacks over his career at just over 16%. What does this mean? When we take a big picture look at Flacco and his underlying metrics over his career, we find that his first read is fairly often a perimeter wide receiver on intermediate-to-deep routes, and if forced into second and third reads (either through pressure or sticky coverage on the back end), he is more than willing to simply check the ball down to his running back. Back to Michael Carter, who is in a route on 42.7% of the team’s passing plays this season. When we then consider the heavy blitz rates of the Miami defense, we’re left with a good path to six to eight targets for Michael Carter here, with possible paths to more should Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage continue. Speaking of those struggles, Davis holds a 12.0 yards per target mark against zone this season and a 6.0 yards per target mark against man, a glaring split to consider against the heavy man coverages shown by the Dolphins this season with the return to health by perimeter corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. So, while Davis is the “deep threat” in this offense (13.4 aDOT, compared to 5.4 for Jamison Crowder and 11.9 for Elijah Moore), the chances for him returning a strong GPP-worthy score here are much lower than I initially thought, before diving into the setup of this game. In all, no one player profiles as a strong on-paper play from the Jets this week with Flacco at quarterback, although Michael Carter should be considered the top play from this team.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Because the Jets don’t force the issue on their own, but they up their pace of play to extreme levels if forced to do so, the overall game environment from this one depends almost entirely on Miami’s ability to put points up on the scoreboard in the first half. Considering the heavy injuries to Miami’s pass-catching corps, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ailing finger injury, and Miami’s propensity to let games come to them depending on their defense’s ability to limit scoring, we’re left with a situation where the percentage solution here is a game environment largely devoid of paths to upside. To put that another way, in order for this game to really take off, it would likely require aggression to be initiated by Miami, which we are extremely unlikely to see here considering the current state of the Dolphins. That gives us a likeliest game flow where the first half is played to a relative slugfest, with Miami eventually asserting control later in the game. Joe Flacco’s career 61.7% completion rate and low touchdown totals (only 225 passing scores in 175 career starts) make first-half success for the Jets highly unlikely here, particularly considering de facto alpha Corey Davis’ struggles against man coverage so far this year. Since the Dolphins are likely to take a conservative approach with a depleted pass-catching corps and an injury to the throwing hand of their starting quarterback, and since the Jets don’t show aggression unless forced to do so, we’re likeliest to see a game decided late in the fourth quarter or by the Miami defense. All of that to say, this game environment is not one to go out of our way to attack this week.

---

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

---

DFS+ Interpretation ::