Kickoff Sunday, Nov 21st 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
14.75) at

Browns (
27.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
29th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
19th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
20th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
28th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • If Nick Chubb misses, D’Ernest Johnson will again be a “must play.”
  • The Browns defense is underpriced for a home date with the Lions.
  • D’Andre Swift is likely to see usage similar to Weeks 1-7 with the return of Williams.
  • T.J. Hockenson has been more involved in weeks following his disappearing acts.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions aren’t going to go 0-16! A collective half sigh of relief must’ve been felt in Detroit as they avoided suffering the indignity of being the only franchise to go 0-16 twice. Is 0-15-1 better? It’s a little better. Dan Campbell deserves credit since unlike the 2008 Lions who at least had Calvin Johnson, the 2021 Lions truly have an 0-16 roster. Dan Campbell is now outperforming his talent. The Lions aren’t rolling over either, playing most of their games close, and pushing several playoff teams to the brink. They are loaded with draft picks, and it will be fun in the coming years to see if Campbell can turn this franchise around.

This week they face a Browns team that is weak against the pass (26th in DVOA), and above-average against the run (12th in DVOA), creating a pass funnel defense. The Lions seem to come into every game ready to brawl, more than with a specific plan to attack the team they are playing. They’ll basically try whatever is working and keep at that approach if it’s keeping them in the game. They’ll also cut bait and totally switch styles if what they’re doing isn’t working. This is evidenced by their normally slow pace (27th situational neutral) but their willingness to throw caution into the wind and speed up (10th in pace when behind) if they’re trying to catch up. They showed this tendency last week when they slammed Swift into the relative strength of the Steelers defense 33 times (averaging only 3.9 YPC) because, hey, it was keeping the game close! This game profiles as a game the Lions are likely to be losing, so there is a good chance of another 35 passing attempts or more for the Lions. Further complicating matters is the health of Jared Goff, who looks likely to play through an injury.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns come into this game a middling 5-5, disappointing against expectations after a 3-1 start, and currently sitting in the basement of the AFC North. The Browns have built the most effective running game in the NFL, behind an elite O-line and two of the best backs in the league. Unfortunately, their coaching staff continues to squander this massive advantage, and Baker Mayfield has looked more like a game manager than a franchise QB. Further highlighting this coaching staff’s inability to maximize their talent is the departure of Odell Beckham. OBJ passed the eye test in a Rams uniform, and his Dad politely pointed out on social media that he was routinely open and never got the ball. Kevin Stefanski needs to turn this season around or he might rightly be shown the door.

It’s no secret by now how the Browns want to attack. They play slowly (28th situational neutral pace) and run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. Mayfield has been held under 33 attempts in every game this year, including back-to-back 21 attempt games. The Lions talent deficient defense is equally bad against the pass (28th in DOVA), as the run (29th in DVOA), and there is no reason for the Browns to deviate from their preferred method of attack. It is easy to predict with high confidence that the Browns will slam their running game down the Lions throats all afternoon.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 44 point total and sets up as a potential blowout spot (aren’t all Lions games) as the Browns are well-positioned to be able to move the ball against Detriot’s poor run D. Vegas has installed the Browns as a large 10 point home favorite, and in these spots we normally must worry about QBs/WRs sitting in the fourth quarter. Here, we know the Browns are going to run the ball all game, regardless of the scoreboard. The most likely game flow is highly likely, which has the Browns running all over the Lions from start to finish, with the scrappy Lions trying to pass to catch up late, before ultimately taking another loss.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Vegas total of 45 tied for fourth lowest in Week 11
  • 10 point spread is the third largest
  • DET’s 17.5 implied total is second lowest
  • CLE’s 27.5 implied total is tied for fourth highest
  • Per numberFire, DET ranks 23rd in adjusted seconds per play and 31st in adjusted pass rate
  • CLE ranks 28th in adjusted seconds per play and 27th in adjusted pass rate
  • DET allows 28.9 ppg, third worst in the league

Jared Goff

  • Ranks 28th in PFF passing grade
  • 6.3 YPA ranks 35th and 6.4 ADoT ranks 36th
  • Hasn’t hit 20+ DK pts since Week 2
  • DK log from Week 3 onwards: 9.08 // 18.76 // 8.12 // 9.18 // 13.02 // 8.88 // 4.56
  • CLE ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (21.2)

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: TJ Hockenson 84.1% // Kalif Raymond 74.5% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 64.6% // Trinity Benson 37.5%
  • Target share: Hockenson 19.1% // Raymond 13.7% // Amon 13.1% // Benson 5.4%
  • Among still active WRs, Raymond still holds the only two 15+ DK pt efforts: 19.6 // 20.6
  • CLE ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.6)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Justin Jefferson 20.4 // DeAndre Hopkins 20.5 // Brandin Cooks 22.8 // Kendrick Bourne 24.1 // Mike Williams 39.5 // Tyreek Hill 40.1
  • All of those players rank among the top 32 WRs in PFF receiving grade
  • DET’s best, still active WR in PFF receiving grade ranks 70th (Amon)
  • Among qualified TEs, Hockenson ranks sixth in air yards, sixth in target share, fifth in air yard market share, and sixth in WOPR
  • His 11.9 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • CLE ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Travis Kelce 25.6 // Cole Kmet 2.1 // Donald Parham 12.9 / Noah Fant 8.9 // Pat Freiermuth 14.4 // Hunter Henry 19.7

D’Andre Swift

  • Among all qualified RBs, Swift ranks third in target share, fourth in WOPR, and fifth in RBOPR
  • His rush share ranks 14th and goal line rush share ranks 21st
  • He leads all RBs with seven targets per game
  • 18.4 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • CLE ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (23)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Javonte Williams 17.2 // Najee Harris 21 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Austin Ekeler 33.9

Baker Mayfield

  • Baker’s health is in question as of Wednesday evening
  • Ranks 22nd in PFF passing grade
  • 8.1 YPA ranks tied for seventh and 9.3 ADoT ranks tied for sixth
  • Only one 20+ DK pt performance (26 pts), the Week 5 game @ LAC that ended in a 42-47 loss
  • Otherwise he hasn’t hit 19 DK pts
  • His 14.74 DK ppg ranks down with the two Trevors (Siemian and Lawrence)
  • DET ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.8)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Lamar Jackson 20.28 // Joe Burrow 23.84 // Matthew Stafford 30.16

CLE Passing Attack

  • CLE utilizes 13 personnel (3 TEs) at the highest rate in the league by far at 21% (league average is 4% and no other team is in the double digits) 
  • Since OBJ’s exit from the team following Week 8, here are the snap totals: Donovan Peoples-Jones 79 // Jarvis Landry 79 // Austin Hooper 72 // David Njoku 70 // Harrison Bryant 48 // Anthony Schwartz 37 // Rashard Higgins 29
  • Target totals from Week 8 onwards: Landry 10 // D’Ernest Johnson 8 // DPJ 8 // Hooper 7 // Njoku 7 // Bryant 4 // Schwartz 2 // Higgins 1
  • Landry’s DK log: 19.4 // 1.9 // 8.7 // 11 // 4.1 // 6.6
  • DPJ’s health is up in the air as of Wednesday, but he has two of the three highest DK scores from the WR room: 16.6 // 29.1
  • Schwartz and Higgins have yet to hit 12 DK pts
  • DET ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.8)
  • On the season, Hooper has an 11.9% target share and Njoku has a 10.5%
  • Njoku had the outlier score of 30.9 in Week 5 (the second highest TE score league wide this year)
  • Otherwise, no TE has cracked 13 pts
  • DET ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.9)

CLE RBs

  • CLE is tied with BAL for the most rushing yards per game, first in yards per attempt, and tied for first in rushing TDs per game (1.6)
  • DET allows the third most rushing yards per game
  • Chubb is likely to return, taking back the reins from D’Ernest Johnson
  • Chubb’s 18.3 DK ppg ranks ninth at the position
  • DET ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (30.5)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 20.3 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Aaron Jones 41.5