Patriots (

12.75) at
Steelers (

17.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 14 kicks off with the Patriots visiting the Steelers for a game with a 30-point total (one of the lowest Vegas totals we’ve seen in decades) with Pittsburgh favored by 6. Most of the time, I love my job, but when a game like this comes up to write up, ugh. But, there’s money to be won, so let’s see if we can figure out how. First, some injury stuff: Kenny Pickett is out so the Steelers will have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Rhamondre Stevenson is doubtful and thus probably out, which would leave the Pats with a backfield of Ezekiel Elliott and likely Ty Montgomery or JaMycal Hasty (or possibly both). The Patriots also have all of Demario Douglas, Devante Parker, and JuJu Smith-Schuster listed as questionable. My guess is Parker and JuJu play while Douglas misses another game. 

New England

On the New England side, Zeke slides into a big role. Last week, he played 69% of the snaps and handled 17 carries and 5 targets after Rhamondre went down (and that was with Rhamondre playing about a quarter of the game). That’s a big role as normally backs with roles like that are more expensive than $9,400. Look, every play in this game is gross, but in the context of this awful game, Zeke sure looks like a strong on-paper play. The Steelers defense is no joke but they’re better against the pass, and we can feel confident that the Patriots are not going to go into this one with a pass-heavy game plan given their woes at quarterback. Behind Zeke, I really don’t know how things will split between Montgomery and Hasty, but my guess is Hasty will be the direct backup – we’ve seen Montgomery on the team all season and he only has three carries, having been primarily used as a pass catcher. I think it’s most likely that Hasty plays the RB2 role, and Montgomery will maintain some level of involvement but probably more as a receiver. I wouldn’t play these two guys together. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The poor Patriots are incredibly banged up at wide receiver. Assuming Douglas doesn’t play (which seems likely as he’s in concussion protocol and has not returned to practice – not much time on a short week), they’ll trot out DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton as their primary WRs with Jalen Reagor and Montgomery playing supporting roles. I’m also expecting Kayshon Boutte to miss another game, but if he’s back, he’s probably in the WR4 mix. This is a tough matchup and not made any better by the Pats abysmal QB play, but at least they’re all really cheap. Parker is $5,600, JuJu is $3,800, and Thornton is $3,400. JuJu has shown zero semblance of upside with New England this year and I can quickly relegate him to the MME punt pool. Parker at least has some per-catch upside and is my favorite play here. Zappe also targeted him nine times last week on just 25 pass attempts, and while we can’t reasonably expect this kind of target share every week, his volume should be the safest on the team. Thornton is a wild card with an extremely low floor but solid ceiling – lots of per-touch upside, occasionally is schemed the ball in space to run with, and we saw him have some nice games last season so the ceiling isn’t purely theoretical. He’s volatile and thus also somewhat of a punt play, but I’d take him over JuJu in a heartbeat. 

At tight end, it’s primarily Hunter Henry and then Pharaoh Brown, with Mike Gesicki’s role shrinking of late (26% and 9% of the snaps last week while Brown has played 54% and 50% – the two lowest and highest rates of the season for these guys, respectively). Henry would be my second favorite Patriots pass catcher. Brown is more of a blocker – he hasn’t seen a target since Week 8 – but he’s viable as a punt, while Gesicki’s role has evaporated but could return if the Pats feel like they need pass catching more than blocking. ALL of these guys are pretty thin with extremely low floors. 

Pittsburgh