Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Texans have some major names on their injury report to begin the week.
- WR Tank Dell is done for the season after his gnarly leg injury suffered in Week 13.
- OT Laremy Tunsil (knee), OT George Fant (hip), and S Jimmy Ward (shoulder) all missed practice on Wednesday with various ailments. All three are primary contributors on this team.
- TE Dalton Schultz (hamstring) got in a limited session Wednesday after missing Week 13.
- WR Noah Brown (knee) also got in a limited session Wednesday, which is important because he is now expected to enter the starting lineup on the perimeter for the Texans.
- Jets RB Breece Hall (ankle) and WR Jason Brownlee (ankle) did not practice Wednesday. This is the first we’ve heard about either injury.
- This game opened with a game total of 36.5 points, which has been bet down to just 33.0 over growing concerns regarding the weather at MetLife Stadium.
- This is a weather game in what is being dubbed a weather week – we know the drill by now, the field is highly likely to overreact to weather on this slate. I’ll pass along weather updates as the weekend draws near.
How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has more or less run the gamut when you look at his play-calling tendencies this season, notably starting the year with a forward-leaning, layered aerial attack before spending the next four weeks with the highest first-down rush rate in the league, before then returning to a more unpredictable design until now. Knowing the path he has taken this season, it becomes a little more difficult to ascertain how he is likeliest to approach this spot against one of the better all-around defenses in the league, in expected inclement weather, without a primary contributor on offense (rookie wide receiver Tank Dell), in the potential absence of both of his elite starting offensive tackles. We spent a lot of time diagnosing what Tunsil and Fant meant to this offense when Tunsil returned to the lineup in the middle of the season. Slowik has been able to stay ahead of the sticks recently through unpredictable tendencies, solid efficiency on first down behind a dynamic run-blocking scheme, and unreal efficiency from his rookie quarterback. Not that those things can’t happen in this spot, they just become a lot more difficult given the circumstances. All of that to say, there is a bit more uncertainty with this Houston offense than we have seen in some time. There is also something to say of the fact that the Jets face the highest rush rate of any team in the league this season (49.63 percent).
As we’ve explored previously, Devin Singletary is the back most suited for the zone-gap run-blocking scheme recently employed by Slowik. He handily outpaced one-read grinder Dameon Pierce in the latter’s first game back from injury in Week 12, but the two ran in a near-even timeshare the following week, with Pierce seeing 38 percent of the offensive snaps and handling 15 carries and zero targets to the 46 percent snap rate, eight carries, and one target of Singletary. It was also Pierce that had his number called in the green zone, scoring from three yards out in the first quarter. It appears as if this backfield has reverted to the messy timeshare we saw during the first eight weeks of the season, leaving a lot to be desired from either back. The fact that the Jets have faced the highest rush rate this season adds a bit to the workload expectation for Pierce, who has struggled to just 3.0 yards per carry and has just two breakaway runs through nine games played. The pure rushing matchup is middling, at best, against a Jets defense holding opponents to 4.1 yards per carry behind 1.24 yards allowed before contact.
The pure magic of this offense has been, and should continue to be, the aerial attack. The problem is that the Jets defense has held opponents to just 5.2 net yards per pass attempt and 176.6 total pass yards per game this season. That almost certainly does not mean the Texans are precluded from finding success in this spot, it just makes it that much more difficult. Furthermore, Nico Collins enters the bonkers-elite discussion on snaps played in the absence of Dell this season, and he should be considered the primary option through the air for the remainder of the season. Brown is expected to enter the starting lineup opposite Collins and has produced when called upon this season, most notably rattling off consecutive games of more than 150 receiving yards while either Collins or Robert Woods were sidelined earlier this season. Both Brown and Schultz are currently on the team’s injury report, but both should join Collins as the top options through the air should they work their way into active status by the weekend. Woods and John Metchie are likely to round out the pass-catching corps, both likely to be held to under 60 percent of the offensive snaps. The Jets lead the league in DK points allowed per game to wide receivers this season at just 24.3 points, notably allowing the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends through 13 weeks (seven). Finally, the fact that they have allowed just three receiving scores all season to opposing wide receivers is troubling.
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