Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The NFL is once again gracing us with an outstanding “game of the week” in the late afternoon window between two of the NFL’s top teams.
- A loss will likely knock the Bills out of the AFC playoffs.
- Kansas City’s offense continues to struggle to find a rhythm as we get into the late stages of the season.
- Buffalo’s offense has appeared to be very potent once again since changing their offensive coordinator – scoring 66 points in the two games since the change.
- We should expect both teams to enter this game with an aggressive offensive mindset due to their respect for each other’s quarterback.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
The Bills rank 5th in the NFL in cumulative point differential, having outscored their opponents by 101 points throughout 12 games. Despite that elite performance, they enter Week 14 with a 6-6 record and likely need to win out or, at worst, lose only one more game to have a chance at making the playoffs. All six of Buffalo’s losses have been by one score, with two coming in overtime and two others happening in the last 12 seconds of regulation. It has indeed been a season of near-misses as Buffalo has struggled to put it all together and seemingly continues to find new ways to lose games. While three of those losses have been relatively understandable against the Eagles, Bengals, and Jaguars, the close losses to the Broncos, Jets, and Patriots have really put their season in jeopardy.
This week, the rubber meets the road for Buffalo as they head into Kansas City for a showdown with their biggest rival of the last few years. The Bills offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in DVOA while being top-6 in efficiency both in the passing game and on the ground. They are averaging 33 points per game in the two games since firing Ken Dorsey as their offensive coordinator. They appear to be intent on riding Josh Allen, which is probably a wise decision and should have happened a while ago. Allen set season highs in pass attempts, rush attempts, and rushing yards in their Week 12 loss to the Eagles. This week against the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, the Bills will undoubtedly lean heavily on Allen again. The history between these teams and their respect for Mahomes will ensure that Buffalo enters this game with a “point acquisition” mindset, knowing that no lead is safe until the clock hits 0:00. Kansas City’s defense has been terrific this year. It ranks 3rd in the NFL in pass-defense DVOA. Still, they are not an insurmountable unit by any means. Just last week, Jordan Love and the Packers diced them up for 267 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. The Chiefs also rank in the bottom half of the league in PFF pass rush and coverage grades, indicating they may be more vulnerable than their on-paper metrics.
While Allen will be the backbone of the Buffalo attack, the running game against Kansas City’s bottom-5 run defense won’t be entirely ignored. The increased use of Josh Allen’s legs should only create even bigger running lanes for James Cook and the other running backs when Buffalo decides to run it. The Chiefs play a high rate of man coverage and have historically and this year been very good against perimeter wide receivers. Their physical secondary can give some teams fits, but we should expect the route-running proficiency of Stefon Diggs and the mismatch versatility of Dalton Kincaid to be the focal points of the Bills passing attack this week. Likewise, we should expect Buffalo to look to involve their running backs out of the backfield in the passing game and try to get Cook and Ty Johnson isolated against the Chiefs linebackers in coverage. In Week 11 against the Jets, who play a similar man-heavy coverage style and have very good perimeter cornerbacks, Buffalo’s running backs combined for six receptions, 76 receiving yards, and two touchdown receptions. Gabe Davis has had better games this season against weaker secondaries and/or teams that play more zone coverage. That, along with all of the other matchup factors this week, would seem to point to this game being one where he runs a lot of wind sprints while Diggs, Kincaid, and the running backs are Allen’s primary targets. Regardless of the Chiefs 2023 offensive struggles, this Bills team will enter Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, remembering their epic collapse in the playoffs two years ago, and approach every possession intending to accumulate points.
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