Kickoff Sunday, Dec 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
17.5) at

Browns (

Over/Under 37.5


Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • If you like backup quarterbacks, this is the game for you!
  • Jacksonville is playing on a short week after an ugly loss to the Bengals on Monday night and dealing with the shock of an ugly Trevor Lawrence injury.
  • The Jaguars also lost their leading wide receiver, Christian Kirk, to a groin injury.
  • Jacksonville faces the third-highest opponent pass rate in the league, and the Browns had their highest pass rate of the season in Joe Flacco’s first start in Week 13.
  • This is a critical game for both of these teams, as the Browns fight to hold onto their wild card spot and the Jaguars have two teams nipping at their heels in the AFC South.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars seemed like they would have things on cruise control to a repeat AFC South title after their Week 12 road win in Houston gave them a two-game lead in the division. Fast forward a week, and they have lost their starting quarterback and leading wide receiver and gave up nearly 500 yards of total offense on national TV to a team quarterbacked by a 27-year-old undrafted journeyman in his second career start. Life comes at you fast in the NFL.

This week, Jacksonville faces a Browns team that is already very familiar with the challenges of trying to win in the NFL with a backup quarterback. The Browns rank top-3 in the NFL against both the run and the pass while they have feasted on some of the inferior opponents they have faced this year. No one in the NFL plays man coverage at a higher rate than the Browns, and Jacksonville just lost their “man-beater” in primary slot receiver Christian Kirk. Put simply, the Browns defense is very aggressive and dares their opponents to beat them in 1-on-1 matchups before their elite pass rush (#3 graded by PFF) gets home. Zay Jones is not a “separator”, and Calvin Ridley is more effective against zone coverage and when he has time to create separation on more complex routes. A backup quarterback under duress is going to need quick reads and hot routes to have any sort of success, meaning Jacksonville is likely to focus heavily on their running game, screens, and perhaps an increased role for tight end Evan Engram – who scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 13. 

There really isn’t much more to say on the Jaguars side of things. Their best chance of victory is going to be hiding quarterback CJ Beathard and winning the turnover and field position battles. Jacksonville’s defense has been very good this season, outside of a couple of ugly performances. However, those ugly performances have primarily come at the hands of offenses with elite offensive talent (Ja’Marr Chase and company last week, the 49ers juggernaut, CJ Stroud before we knew how good he really was). The Browns offense is likely to throw a lot, but they are not loaded with elite playmakers, especially with Amari Cooper likely to miss. Because of that, Jacksonville should enter this game with a very conservative mindset and hope to keep the game close and let the Browns shoot themselves in the foot at some point with turnovers of their own.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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