Titans (

15.75) at
Dolphins (

29.25)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 14 has not one but two Monday night Showdowns! Rejoice! This one has the Titans visiting the Dolphins for a 46 total game with the Dolphins favored by 13 (wow). The Dolphins are implied for 29.5 points while the Titans are at just 16.5 so Vegas is clearly predicting a blowout but we’ll see. 

Miami

The Dolphins have an absolutely explosive offense but this matchup is a nightmare for their run game as the Titans are 1st in run defense DVOA (while being 30th in pass defense DVOA). This is a classic pass funnel matchup, and while that doesn’t mean the Dolphins backfield can’t hit, it’s a tough spot for them with De’Von Achane priced all the way at $10,200, and Raheem Mostert at $8,800. Split backfield with very expensive backs in one of the worst possible matchups is a tough sell for me. Running backs in Showdown always have paths to ceiling, and both Achane and Mostert are explosive players who can break one at any time, but they’re much riskier than normal in this game.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In a pass funnel matchup it’s really, really tough to come up with a case to avoid Tyreek Hill beyond “football is weird.” The dude has been dismantling defenses every single week and only has three games under 20 DK points. It’s a perfect matchup for the NFL’s best wide receiver (or at least the NFL’s most productive wide receiver) and he’ll be massively owned but he deserves to be. The only case I can think of to not play him is just game theory and that football IS weird and unexpected things happen in every game. On paper, he’s an absolute smash play. Behind him is Jaylen Waddle, who is overpriced for what he’s done this season at $9,200 but if you believe the run game has less success, that boosts Waddle’s upside. It’s fair to think that the odds of at least one of Tyreek and Waddle hitting are extremely high, and I’m likely to have a rule of at least one of them on every roster. Every other pass catcher on the Dolphins is getting into thin territory: all of Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson, and River Cracraft will see the field at wide receiver while we’ll see Durham Smythe, Julian Hill, and maybe a bit of Tanner Conner at tight end. The Miami offense is one of the most concentrated in the NFL. There are a couple of ways this could play out: 1) we could see a bit more involvement than usual from the ancillary pass catchers given the difficult run matchup, or, 2) we could just see the Dolphins increase their passing volume to the RBs (both of whom are capable pass catchers), while the other rando pass catchers continue to barely do anything. Of this group, Wilson is my favorite as he’s the most talented, but these guys are all thin. I’ll discuss group thoughts for this bunch at the end.

Tennessee