Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Another potential weather spot, per the current forecast.
- TE Tyler Higbee (neck) did not practice Wednesday for the Rams while WR Puka Nacua (shoulder) was limited.
- WR Rashod Bateman (illness) was the only Ravens player to miss practice on Wednesday, although he appears likely to play on Sunday.
- Baltimore averages 27.0 points per game (seventh) and has held opponents to the fewest points per game this season (15.6). They also rattled off five consecutive games of 31 points or more before faltering against the Chargers (20 points scored). In other words, the Ravens are about as elite as they come this year. They are quietly putting together an elite all-around season despite innumerable major injuries to both sides of the ball (again).
How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams have been Steady Eddie this year, quietly going about their business while averaging 22.3 points per game (11th). Furthermore, the Rams have averaged a robust 31.75 points per game over their previous four games since their Week 9 bye, with wins over the Saints, Bears, and Chargers during that span (29-22 loss to the Packers in Week 12). Now, that is not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents, but the point remains – this team, under Sean McVay’s tutelage and Matthew Stafford’s resurgence, is currently no joke. In fact, that recent surge of three wins in four games has the Rams within striking distance of a playoff spot after sputtering out of the gates this year. They are one of four teams currently tied at 6-6 in the NFC, with those four teams the likeliest teams to secure the sixth and seventh seed. And they find themselves in that spot while fighting through numerous injuries of their own. Cooper Kupp started the season off by missing the first four games and was injured in another. Kyren Williams missed four games in the middle of the season. Matthew Stafford left one game early and missed the following game with an injury. And now Puka Nacua is dealing with an injury that held him to 63 percent of the offensive snaps a week ago while tight end Tyler Higbee started the week with a ‘DNP’ with an injury of his own. On the other side of the ball, what this team has managed to do with the level of talent they have has been nothing short of remarkable. We all scoffed at the way this defense looked on paper prior to the start of the season and all they’ve done this year is hold opponents to 21.1 points per game (14th) on 330.8 total yards per game (16th). In other words, this defense should not be performing as well as they have this year without elite coaching.
Kyren Williams has held one of the most robust roles of any back in the league when healthy, capable of playing nearly every offensive snap when called upon by his coaching staff. Williams has three games (of seven total healthy games without Cam Akers) of 94 percent or more of the offensive snaps this season, which is absolutely absurd in today’s NFL game. His 83.7 percent snap rate ranks first, his 41 red zone touches rank fifth (and that’s with the four missed games), and his route participation ranks third. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more valuable back in 2023 that is not named Christian McCaffrey. For years the Ravens were better attacked through the air due to elite linebackers and the presence of an elite nose tackle, but this season has been a little different. Baltimore currently ranks first (by a metric mile) in net yards allowed per pass attempt at 4.2 while ranking 20th in yards allowed per carry at 4.3. A routinely positive game script has made it so the Ravens face a rush on only 36.71 percent of their defensive snaps (fourth lowest in the league), but it is most definitely the clearest way to attack this defense in 2023. Just five combined touchdowns allowed to opposing backs has kept the Ravens at 11th in DK points allowed per game to the position which is more a testament to their elite red zone defense than anything else.
There are a few moving parts with the Los Angeles pass offense due to injuries to tight end Tyler Higbee and wide receiver Puka Nacua. I would expect Nacua to play through his shoulder ailment while Higbee’s status is more up in the air for Week 14. Either way, Nacua is outperforming Cooper Kupp in almost every meaningful metric this season (except target rate against man coverage, and even then, Nacua has experienced a recent surge in his marks against man). On a standard week with everyone healthy, Nacua, Kupp, and Higbee are the near every-down pass-catchers in this offense, with Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek, Demarcus Robinson, and Hunter Long rotating through the remaining snaps. Most notably, Robinson has played nearly 60 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in consecutive weeks. Whether that’s a trend or necessity due to the recent injuries remains to be seen. The matchup through the air is as difficult as they come considering the metrics mentioned above.
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