Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Both teams are coming off a Week 13 bye and should be fully rested and very healthy.
- The Vikings look to bounce back from a couple tough losses they had heading into their bye week as they fight for a playoff spot in the NFC.
- Justin Jefferson is practicing in full as he is on pace to return from a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury.
- Joshua Dobbs will remain the Vikings’ starting quarterback despite a four-interception performance in Minnesota’s last game.
- Las Vegas is theoretically still alive for the playoffs and Minnesota would be the No. 6 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.
- Both teams have had a run-heavy approach in recent weeks, with the Raiders relying on Josh Jacobs since their head coaching change and the Vikings scaling back their pass rate since Kirk Cousins was injured.
How MINNESOTA Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have had a wild season this year as they started out horribly and many people were wondering if they would tank the year for a high draft pick after a 1-3 start. They turned things around, however, as Cousins was having a fantastic season and their defense ironed things out under first-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Even a torn Achilles for Cousins didn’t derail them at first, as they responded with wins over the Falcons and Saints in their first two games with Dobbs at quarterback. Things fell apart quickly, however, as they lost their last two games against the Broncos and Bears prior to last week’s bye. The big issue in those losses, which came by a combined three points, was that they had seven total turnovers compared to only two for their opponents. There was talk prior to their Week 13 bye that Dobbs could be benched, but he has been confirmed as the starter for this week – albeit likely with a shorter leash. When you think about it, sticking with Dobbs makes sense. As maddening as those losses are, the fact that they were such narrow losses despite the massive negative turnover differential points to the fact that the Vikings are on the right track and just need to take better care of the ball.
As for what that means for Week 14 against the Raiders, the return of Jefferson will certainly play a role as well. The Vikings are likely to be a bit more conservative this week in terms of giving Dobbs easier reads and emphasizing his need to take care of the ball. That being said, the mere presence of Jefferson should open things up across the field and make his reads easier, and, when all else fails, give him one of the best playmakers in the league to rely on. The Raiders defense looked great in the first two games of the Antonio Pierce era, but that likely had more to do with facing the Jets and Giants than any massive swing in their level of play. They seemed to fall back to earth in their Week 12 loss to the Chiefs, whose offense has looked very pedestrian for most of the season but went off against the Raiders. Minnesota has the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL this season, and while we should expect them to be more conservative this week than they were early in the season with Cousins, they are unlikely to turn into a “run-based” offense now that their elite receiving corps is back intact. We should expect a healthy dose of easy first read targets for Jefferson and TJ Hockenson, with the coaching staff encouraging Dobbs to either use his legs to run for yards or check down to the running backs if those initial looks aren’t there, rather than taking the chance of him giving this game away with multiple avoidable turnovers again.
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