Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor remained out of practice (through Thursday) and appears likely to miss his second consecutive contest against the Bengals in Week 14.
- The Bengals have a clean injury report, meaning we have a clear picture of who will play this week.
- Colts RB Zack Moss handled an insane 94 percent snap rate in the absence of Taylor in Week 13. This feels like it could be setting up for a nice flop-lag spot for the veteran running back in what is now a solid on-paper matchup.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
The Colts remain exactly neutral in season-long pass rate over expectation (PROE) but have seen some of the heaviest swings in either direction, most commonly quick to make in-game adjustments based on the first couple of series. That has led to some of the highest PROE games and some of the lowest PROE in the league this season, which is an interesting dynamic to break down when we’re looking to narrow down the offensive tendencies from the Colts this year. The combination of those fluid tendencies with an uptempo design has led to some elite game environments, which is something we’re always looking to identify and attack. Based on the micro matchups present against the Bengals, I would expect the team to begin the game with a run-balanced approach, with ever present probability of adjustments from there.
Moss played a massive 94 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in the absence of Taylor in Week 13, which is both ridiculous and beautiful. That might seem foreign at first glance but is in line with what we saw out of Moss earlier in the season with Taylor out. Furthermore, the state of this roster is likely to have that trend continue into the future, with only Trey Sermon on the active roster behind the top two backs and Tyler Goodson likely to get another game-day elevation from the practice squad. That means another solid chance at 22-25 running back opportunities for Moss, assuming the game environment cooperates – and even then, Moss has proven to be capable through the air. The matchup against the Bengals is a solid one on paper, as Cincinnati has allowed a robust 4.8 yards per carry behind 1.56 yards allowed before contact (31st). That has led to opposing backfields averaging 22.3 DK points per game against the Bengals while scoring 11 total times through 12 games played.
The Colts came out of their Week 11 bye as a more concentrated pass offense, shedding Isaiah McKenzie from their game plans in favor of rookie Josh Downs. That leaves the primary pass catchers as a tight unit consisting of Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce in every-down roles, with Downs in a “standard-for-a-slot-man” 65-70 percent snap-rate role. The tight ends are a nasty conglomeration of four bodies, all of whom mix in for non-negligible snap rates on a weekly basis, leaving all of Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory off the weekly fantasy radar. As for the matchup, the Bengals are typically tight against perimeter wide receivers that don’t work the middle of the field due to their zone-heavy, prevent-style defensive shell. That has left them most susceptible to pass-catching running backs, inline tight ends, and wide receivers that work the middle of the field through crossing routes, inward-breaking routes, and screens. That, sadly, is a tough ask for the one-dimensional style of Pierce after his breakout game, leaving Pittman, Moss and Downs as the likeliest contributors through the air.
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