Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Buccaneers were forced to play with a skeleton crew on defense in Week 13, missing three of their five most talented individual players against the Panthers (LB Devin White, LV Lavonte David, and CB Jamel Dean). Dean and White were held out of practice on Wednesday while David returned as a full participant.
- Buccaneers NT Vita Vea (toe) missed practice on Wednesday but appears likely to suit up on Sunday, considering he has participated sparingly in practices all season but continues to play through various ailments.
- The Falcons are likely to continue banging their proverbial heads against the wall through the run game unless otherwise forced, regardless of matchup or expected efficiency. That’s just what we get from this team under current leadership.
- Mike Evans is on an absolute tear, seeing double-digit targets in three of his last four games (and hitting nine in the other) and scoring seven touchdowns in his previous seven contests.
- The Buccaneers have evolved, or devolved, into an offense centered around two players – Mike Evans and Rachaad White.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Buccaneers rank right near the middle of the pack in PROE but have largely struggled to sustain drives this season, resulting in just 61.1 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game and a 23rd-ranked 19.4 points per game average. Furthermore, they are averaging just 18.75 points per game over their last four contests and have just one game since their Week 5 bye with more than 21 points scored. In other words, this team has rarely been the driving force behind the eventual game environment they find themselves in, instead adopting a more reactionary stance as far as offensive design goes. What is interesting about the recent scoring trends for the Buccaneers is a defense that is playing much better of late, likely influenced most by the transition back to the roots of head coach Todd Bowles, who has this defense paying more Cover-2, Cover-3 and quarters alignments in a zone-heavy scheme. On offense, the Buccaneers have become more concentrated of late, with the bulk of their offense running through two players – wide receiver Mike Evans and running back Rachaad White. Chris Godwin has not seen more than seven targets since Week 7, the WR3 role has been divided amongst two to three players of late, and tight end Cade Otton has not seen more than a modest five targets in a month despite playing all but six offensive snaps during that time.
As mentioned above, Rachaad White has become a borderline workhorse back for the Buccaneers of late. His season-long snap rate stands at an elite 76.7 percent, and his 72.5 percent team opportunity share ranks ninth in the league. Furthermore, he has played 80 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps in five of the previous six games and has played 70 percent or more of the offensive snaps in every game this season. His opportunity totals during the most recent five-game stretch stand at 25, 17, 16, 23, and 24, giving us a solid idea of an expected range of outcomes in varying game environments. White is going to remain heavily involved in the weekly game plan for the Buccaneers, with ultimate opportunity counts subject to game environment on a weekly basis. The pure rushing matchup is another difficult one on paper against a Falcons defense holding opposing backs to just 3.9 yards per carry behind 1.17 yards allowed before contact this season. The Falcons have also filtered just 59 targets to running backs this season, good for the sixth-fewest in the league. Chase Edmonds has emerged as the de facto change of pace back behind White, but he has yet to see more than a modest six opportunities at any point this season while playing for the Buccaneers.
Also, as mentioned above, the passing game has run primarily through Mike Evans of late. Chris Godwin and Cade Otton join Evans as the three near every-down pass-catchers (as does running back Rachaad White), but it’s Evans that has run laps around the others since the team’s Week 5 bye week. In other words, if this pass offense is succeeding, the production is highly likely to be flowing through Evans (and, to a lesser extent, White). The Falcons have run man and zone at near league-average rates this season, giving Evans and his ridiculous 38.8 percent target rate against man coverages some room to run in this spot. The Falcons have allowed the seventh deepest aDOT at 8.4 yards but have really cracked down on YAC allowed, ceding the sixth-fewest yards after the catch through 13 weeks. Furthermore, the Falcons have generated pressure at an above-average/borderline elite 24.3 percent rate this season behind a moderate 24.9 percent blitz rate, meaning the Bucs are likely to see an interesting mix of man-zone coverages and increased pressure.
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