Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Miami’s offense is finally starting to click, and they have played themselves back into the playoff picture in the AFC.
- The Dolphins offense has become less concentrated this season with the emergence of TE Jonnu Smith as a consistently involved player, while veteran WR Tyreek Hill continues to have a down season for his standards.
- The Packers are having a terrific season but are shockingly in third place in their own very competitive division with an 8-3 record.
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs has had 20+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
- Packers WR Romeo Doubs, who plays the most snaps and runs the most routes of any player in their receiving corps, is likely to miss this game with a concussion.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
Miami’s offense has evolved a bit in 2024, as they are finally getting consistent reps with the core of their team on the field. At the start of the year, they were using free agent acquisition TE Jonnu Smith in a rotational role with limited targets, and then QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a scary concussion in Week 2 that shattered the offense for over a month. When Tua first returned to the field, the offense was exceptionally conservative with the plays they called and the situations they put him in while they leaned on their running game and play calling to create advantages. Since Tua’s return, the Dolphins lost their first two games against current division leaders Arizona and Buffalo by 1 point and 3 points and have since won three straight games to get back into the AFC playoff picture. The Dolphins were last in the league in scoring, averaging just under 12 points per game, when Tua returned to the field in Week 8. Since then, the Dolphins have averaged 29 points per game in their last five outings.
Miami’s offense has changed from 2023 in two very specific ways. First of all, their backfield has a true bell cow with explosive second-year RB De’Von Achane dominating touches and usage while games are still in question. In previous seasons, the Dolphins had always preferred more of a “committee” approach when health allowed it. This year, veteran Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright split time spelling Achane, but pretty much anytime it matters, you can expect Achane on the field, and the Dolphins actively scheme creative ways to get him the ball. The second major change is the addition of TE Jonnu Smith to the passing game as a consistent and impactful weapon, rather than last year’s dominance by receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins had a Week 6 bye. Since then, the receiving production for Miami looks like this::
- Jonnu Smith: 34 receptions for 395 yards and 4 TDs (on 42 targets)
- Tyreek Hill: 26 receptions for 285 yards and 2 TDs (on 34 targets)
- Jaylen Waddle: 20 receptions for 290 yards and 2 TDs (on 28 targets)
For all intents and purposes, Smith has been the top receiving option on this team after Achane since their bye week. This is a big distinction because, since the return of Tua, the Dolphins have significantly increased their pass rate and aggressiveness. Miami ranks 5th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four games. Tua ranks dead last (36th) out of all qualified passers in average intended air yards and has the fastest average time to throw in the NFL, stats that show you how quickly and efficiently he is getting the ball out of his hands. Put simply; the Dolphins use creative formations and pre-snap motions to keep defenses on their heels and focus on stretching them horizontally more than vertically as they play to the strengths of their personnel and keep Tua upright. This week, they face a Packers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in blitz rate while mixing up man and zone coverage, often altering their approach for their opponents. After the Dolphins passing game had their best outing of the season against the Patriots, who rank 2nd in the NFL in man coverage rate, I would expect a more zone-heavy approach from Green Bay in this spot. They are also likely to blitz at a low rate to keep the ball in front of them and avoid giving up big plays by bringing blitzes that the Dolphins quick hitters can beat for big plays.
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