XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Our holiday week closes out with the Browns visiting the Broncos for a 41.5 total game with Denver favored by 5.5 points. This is a game that feels like it has some barbell-shaped outcomes. Denver’s offense overall has not been great (22 points per game, 19th in the league) but they have five games of 26+ points and a couple over 30 (as well as some total disasters). The Broncos defense has been great but since Jameis Winston took over, Cleveland has struggled against the Chargers and Saints while putting up 24 on the Steelers and 29 on the Ravens. This one could go in a lot of different directions as each offense is capable of outbursts but also quite capable of struggling. Let’s see if we can figure it out and finish Week 13 strong.
Denver
On the Broncos side, their run game has gone really weird. A couple of games ago it looked like Javonte Williams was losing his job to Audric Estime, but then Estime completely vanished last week with just 5 offensive snaps while Javonte went back over 50% in Denver’s last two games. He’s not really getting a lot of run, though, with just 14 and 12 opportunities in those two games (and those were both games that Denver controlled and won handily). Jaleel McLaughlin is still around, playing modest snaps and handling something like 4-7 carries per game, while Estime is also getting a few carries despite barely playing any snaps at all. This is a 3-way backfield that isn’t generating enough production for anyone – only one Denver running back has reached 20 DK points all year (Javonte in Week 7), and only 3 times has a Denver back scored even 15 DK points (all Javonte). The best you can say for it is that pricing has adjusted, with lead back Javonte down at just $6,800. If you want to try and fish here, fine, but there’s really nothing that makes these guys stand out. Any running back who finds the end zone at these prices has a pretty decent chance of making it into an optimal lineup. If I’m betting here, Javonte is the favorite for touches and thus touchdowns, but really I’m treating all of these guys as fairly thin tournament options with extremely modest floors but the potential to find their way into a winning lineup with an end zone trip. Good luck.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Bo Nix has been exceptionally good of late. In his last five games, he has a 11:1 TD:INT ratio and he’s gotten his season numbers up to 6.4 yards per pass attempt (not great, but approaching respectability). The Broncos really spread the ball around in their passing offense – a LOT – but Courtland Sutton has really been the apple of Nix’s eye with a 25.1% target share (and 39.4% air yards share – that’s 7th in the NFL, and his 17 red zone targets rank 2nd). His aDOT is robust and we know the way to beat Cleveland’s defense is through deep passing (thanks to JM and his now-famous Quentin Johnston call a couple of weeks ago). He’s my favorite overall play on Denver, in part because of the robustness of his role, but also in part because literally nobody else has a solid role. Denver is running a 5-WR, 3-TE rotation currently – that’s 8 pass catchers to go along with their 3 running backs (oh, and fullback Michael Burton gets involved every once in a while too). In descending order of snaps, the wide receivers are Devaughn Vele, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Tony Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr. Vele has shown a lot of promise so far this year, but he’s only averaging 5 targets per game – that gives him some floor but with Sutton hogging the red zone usage, ceiling is hard to find. He is coming off of his best game so far, putting up 6/80/0 against the Raiders on 9 targets, so there’s optimism that as with many rookies he’ll continue to ascend in the second half of the season. He’s my 2nd favorite Bronco. Humphrey has an elite name but not much else going for him with a low-aDOT, low-volume role of ~3.5 targets/game. Franklin’s role is similar to Humphey’s though with a little more per-target oomph – he’s at least capable of breaking a longer one, giving him some ceiling (with no floor). And then we come to Mims, who as we’ve known since last season has a very legitimate ceiling on 2-3 targets per game because he’s a threat to house one from anywhere (and, again, Cleveland’s weakness is against deep passing). Of these bottom three, Mims is actually my favorite. None of these guys have any real floor, so I’ll go with the guy who’s the cheapest and who has actually shown a ceiling at the NFL level. To be clear, they’re all super risky tournament plays. None of them are “great” plays. But I’ll have more Mims than I will Humphrey or Franklin.
The Broncos tight end situation is pretty gross for DFS purposes. Adam Trautman is playing the most snaps but is primarily a blocking TE. Nate Adkins and Lucas Krull are more capable pass catchers but aren’t playing a lot. Trautman has 15 targets in 12 games, Adkins has 7, and Krull has 14. These guys are all just MME sprinkles for me, though Krull has the edge both in name awesomeness and in volume.
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