Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
20) at

Jets (
21.5)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf followed up consecutive missed practices with full showings Friday, heading into the weekend absent a game designation.
  • Jets LT Tyron Smith (neck) was ruled out for Week 13.
  • Jets RB Breece Hall (knee) went DNP, limited, full in practice this week and ultimately drew the questionable tag. I expect him to play with no limitations, barring setback.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Seahawks rank fifth in pass attempts per game (36.9), second in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and second in pass yards per game (257.2). Unlike the Bengals, however, they have struggled to score this season, tied for 24th in pass touchdowns per game at 1.1. Save the excuses and the regression (progression?) talks, at some point we have to be honest with what teams are showing us on the field. Quarterback Geno Smith has a passing touchdown in all but two games but has also thrown multiple touchdowns only twice all season. Furthermore, after scoring 23 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Seahawks have failed to score more than 20 points in any of their previous four games. Even so, the Seahawks currently find themselves atop the tight NFC West at 6-5, holding the tie-breaker over the Cardinals as things currently stand. It’s insane how the division has fallen this season, with it almost certainly to send just one team to the postseason. In fact, only the Seahawks (+2) and Cardinals (+8) currently hold a positive scoring differential this year. Woof. With that, every game for the rest of the season is precious to these Seahawks, starting with a brutal matchup with the Jets (at least offensively).

Speaking only to workload, Kenneth Walker is probably $500 too cheap on DraftKings. The biggest problem is Walker’s scoring opportunities have almost completely dried up in this most recent four-game stretch, managing just one touchdown on 80 opportunities over the previous four games. The matchup also doesn’t do Walker any favors against a Jets defense allowing just 1.59 yards before contact and 18.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Even at a somewhat depressed salary, there are better places to spend on this slate. Finally, the Seahawks now find themselves as the worst run-blocking offensive line in the league, with just 1.10 yards before contact per attempt. 

I’ve struggled all season to diagnose Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role in this offense. At least for now (maybe even finally?), his role appears to have grown. Over this most recent four-game stretch, JSN has seen his aDOT grow to 11.0 (8.8 on the season) while seeing a tidy 34.2% first-read target rate, 0.70 fantasy points per route run, and 3.33 yards per route run. That’s while still playing almost 85% of his snaps from the slot. That’s important against the Jets as their perimeter corners are some of the best in the game, which has them operating as a true slot funnel through the air. Metcalf clearly is not fully healthy yet after a mid-season injury, failing to practice through Thursday of this week before logging a full practice Friday. Since returning from injury after the team’s Week 10 bye and two missed games, Metcalf has caught 11 of 14 targets for 129 scoreless yards in less prohibitive matchups than he’ll find in Week 13. Lockett has not seen more than six targets since Week 6 and tight end Noah Fant has not seen more than six targets all season, making this offense extremely concentrated at the top. 

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

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