Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Week 13 but reports are that he is likely to play.
- Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson picked up a shoulder injury in the team’s Week 12 contest. After managing a week of limited practice showings, he drew a questionable tag for Week 13.
- The Texans have allowed a league-worst 14 passing touchdowns outside the red zone this season (shout out to Rich Hribar on that pull, which came from the Searching for Ceiling pod Friday morning).
HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Texans still maintain an identity rooted in their defense due to head coach DeMeco Ryans’ lineage. Beyond that, the team is still feverishly held back by Bobby Slowik’s play-calling tendencies, which continues to place the team in too many long down-and-distance situations throughout the course of a game. This is often something the unreal talents of C.J. Stroud can overcome against lesser opponents, but it has been this team’s kryptonite against stronger teams for the last two seasons. Furthermore, a once great strength of this team was its red-zone defense, something that has slipped all the way to 30th in the league this season (67.86% red-zone touchdown rate allowed).
Joe Mixon has one of the most robust running back workloads in the league this season, averaging 20.6 carries and 3.8 targets per game. Furthermore, he has seen the second-most red-zone opportunities, including seven goal-line carries. That has left him with the second-most expected fantasy points and second-most actual fantasy points per game in 2024. Mixon, like many other backs in the league, also has stark splits in production in wins versus losses, amassing 26.54 fantasy points per game in the five wins he has played in (missed three games) and 18.88 fantasy points per game in four losses. With the Texans instilled as 3.5-points road favorites, Mixon sets up well to see both volume and production against a Jaguars team allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Nico Collins has played in just five fully healthy games this season. In those five games, the stud wide receiver is averaging 116.2 yards an 0.6 touchdowns per game. The dude also has two touchdowns called back from penalty this season. He has scored 20.2 DK points or more in four of those five healthy games, averaging a robust 24.02 DK points per game in fully healthy games this season. Basically, step aside CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill, there’s a new alpha in town. Collins is just as likely as any of the top names at the position to put up a score that helped you take down a GPP any time he takes the field, and a matchup against an opponent he has already hung a 12-151-1 line on this year should not change that. Tank Dell, Hutchinson, and Dalton Schultz round out the pass-catching corps, all playing truly complementary roles to the alpha wide receiver, with none of the secondary cast returning a single usable fantasy week this season.
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