Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Vikings TE Josh Oliver (ankle/wrist) will miss his second consecutive game in Week 13.
- Cardinals RB Emari Demercado (back) got in a full week of limited sessions but is still listed as questionable for Week 13.
- The structural matchup between the Arizona offense and the Minnesota defense is about as rough as they come.
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
I’ll just keep saying it until something changes, but the Cardinals are borderline elite when it comes to the structure of their run game and borderline incompetent when it comes to the structure of their pass offense. That could spell legitimate trouble against a Vikings defense allowing the fewest rush yards per game (74.7) and forcing the eighth highest pass rate over expectation this season. In other words, this is one of the worst on-paper matchups for the Cardinals and we have to question their ability to overcome the clear structural mismatch.
Somewhat shockingly, the Cardinals have lost by seven or more points just four times all season. In those four games, James Conner has just one “normal workload,” which came in a Week 4 blowout loss to the Commanders (42-14). Conner’s workload in the other three games in which the Cardinals lost by seven or more points this season: nine carries and one target in a 20-13 loss to the Lions, seven carries and five targets in a 34-13 loss to the Packers, and seven carries and five targets in a 10-point loss to the Seahawks in Week 12. In other words, Conner averages 21.14 opportunities per game when the Cardinals are not getting blown out and 13.25 opportunities per game when the Cardinals lose by seven or more points this season. The Cardinals are currently instilled as 3.5-point road dogs, but things do not set up well for their offense here.
Since erupting for 130 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 2, rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has seen double-digit targets once and gone over 100 yards through the air once, giving him two games all season of returning a 4x salary multiplier on his now-depressed Week 13 salary. The truth of the matter is he is not really being used in a way that maximizes his skill set, with a high rate of seven-to-nine routes that have left him with an inflated 13.7 aDOT. With poor layering of routes underneath, opposing defenses are typically able to bracket those intermediate-to-downfield routes and minimize his impact on the game, something that will need to change before I view him as anything more than a highly talented young receiver held down by the structure of his offense. What that has left the door open for, however, is Trey McBride underneath. Even so, McBride has zero receiving touchdowns (he has two touchdowns this year, a two-yard carry and when he fell on a fumble in the end zone in Week 2) and has also returned a 4x salary multiplier only twice all year. Only Michael Wilson joins those two as a near every-down pass-catchers, typically held to sub-optimal snap and route participation rates.
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