Kickoff Thursday, Nov 28th 12:30pm Eastern
Bears ( 19.25) at
Lions ( 28.75)
Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Bears offense, specifically the passing game, finally came to life in Week 12 against a very good Vikings defense.
- Detroit’s offense continues to hum and their league-best running game is in a great spot this week against the leaky run defense of the Bears.
- Lions RB David Montgomery and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown were non-participants in practice Monday and their statuses should be monitored closely heading into Thursday’s game.
- The Lions have not won on Thanksgiving since 2016, with three losses during their drought coming at the hands of the Bears.
How chicago Will Try To Win ::
Chicago’s season has been a roller coaster, with a very rough start to the season followed by a nice three-game stretch heading into their bye week, and then emerging from their bye to play poorly and have their offensive coordinator fired. They have played two games since removing Shane Waldron from the equation. In the first game, they played the Packers in what turned out to be a relatively low-play volume outing. The Bears had a field goal blocked as time expired and lost 20-19. While the overall offensive output wasn’t tremendous, we could start to see some changes taking place. Last week against the Vikings (who entered the game as the #1 ranked DVOA defense in the NFL) was probably Chicago’s best offensive game of the season despite losing 30-27 in overtime. The Bears play in what is currently the best division in football and this week’s game in Detroit will be the finale of a three game stretch in 11 days in which they faced all of their divisional opponents. Despite Chicago’s 4-7 record and current four game losing streak, they are playing very good football right now and narrowly lost to two very good teams recently. The arrow is pointing up.
Everything for the Bears starts with their prized rookie QB, Caleb Williams. During the last two weeks since their coordinator change, Williams has been cutting it loose a bit with his legs as he has been rushing more and scrambling to make downfield throws. Williams has 15 rushes for 103 yards over the last two games while making multiple highlight reel plays on scrambles, and throwing zero interceptions on 78 pass attempts against two very good pass defenses. The Bears offense has been retooled a bit in terms of how they use their receivers as well. DJ Moore is being used in a higher volume role and closer to the line of scrimmage, allowing him to use his elite talent with the ball in his hands to create yards after the catch. Moore is quickly ascending back to the top tier of WRs. Veteran Keenan Allen has maintained his role but is coming off his best game of the season against the Vikings, while rookie WR Rome Odunze seems primed for a breakout game at some point. Odunze leads the Bears in aDOT (average depth of target) at over 13 yards and has been targeted 10 times in each of his last two games. The Bears have moved TE Cole Kmet into a near every down role while D’Andre Swift still leads the backfield but cedes goal line touches to Roschon Johnson, who has scored in back-to-back games and has 6 TDs in his last eight appearances.
The Bears had a 78% dropback rate in Week 12 against the Vikings as their running game was giving them very little and they fell behind by two scores in the second half. They led most of the game the week before against the Packers, and 61% of their plays were pass attempts or scrambles by Williams. This week against the Lions they face the best offense in the league and a defense that faces the third highest opponent pass rate in the NFL. Chicago’s offensive line has struggled in the running game, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. The Lions run defense has been very strong for a couple of years now so Chicago is highly unlikely to have success on the ground, and we are likely to see a very high dropback rate from the Bears, much like we did this past week against Minnesota. Williams is likely to throw in the neighborhood of 40 passes and scramble a handful of times against a Lions defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in blitz rate and QB pressure rate. The Vikings play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, while the Lions lead the league in man coverage rate – making this a stark difference in passing game matchup. Keenan Allen had a great deal of success last week, but this week in man coverage (likely lined up against Lions All-Pro defensive back Brian Branch) will be much tougher sledding. Expect Moore’s diverse role that involves short targets and pre-snap motion to be critical, while Odunze has a chance to deliver on the elite usage we have seen from him lately. Chicago will have to pass early out of necessity and likely have to stick with it to keep pace.
How Detroit Will Try To Win ::
Kickoff Thursday, Nov 28th 4:30pm Eastern
Giants ( 17.25) at
Cowboys ( 21.25)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Both of the New York football franchises are in complete disarray, as the Giants had an embarrassing performance in their first game since releasing former franchise QB Daniel Jones.
- Dallas is coming off an exciting upset over the Commanders as the Cowboys’ defense is getting healthier and improving, while Cooper Rush is showing improvement as he gets more comfortable.
- CeeDee Lamb has double-digit targets in six straight games, averaging 13 targets per game during that stretch.
- Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers has not eclipsed 100 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in the five games since returning from a concussion.
- The Dallas defense with Micah Parsons back on the field could wreak havoc on the Giants with Tommy DeVito taking sacks at an incredibly high rate.
HOW new york WILL TRY TO WIN ::
New York’s season is in the gutter and it seems that at this point the biggest question is whether they will clean house with their front office and coaching staff before or after the season, or if they will keep them in place for a reset in 2025. Head coach Brian Daboll is coming under heavy scrutiny, but he is one of the better offensive minds in the game and took the Giants to the playoffs by surprise in his first season with the team in 2022. In the two years since, he lost his starting QB a few games into the year and then lost his franchise RB when the team decided to let him leave after the 2023 season. The Giants re-signed Daniel Jones after he led them to the playoffs in 2022 and he did not play well this season. It is easy to be a prisoner of the moment and put this all on Daboll, who is not without fault by any means, but it is hard to imagine many (if any) coaches putting together strong teams last year or this year when you consider the totality of what the Giants have dealt with. The Giants are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bucs in Week 12. The franchise decided to bench Jones for the remainder of the year to avoid triggering the injury guarantees in his contract. Jones then asked for his release, which they granted. To make matters worse, they have opted to start fan favorite DeVito rather than Drew Lock in place of Jones. Lock would almost certainly give them a better chance to win and be better for all of the Giants skill players, but the team is tanking without saying it.
As for this week, the Giants will likely try to lean on their running game and short passing game against a Dallas defense that has struggled to contain running games throughout the season. The Bucs’ defense completely shut down the Giants last week, but Tampa Bay has been a pass-funnel type of defense all season and it shouldn’t have been that surprising that it would be a spot the Giants’ offense would struggle in. This week projects as one where explosive rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. may be heavily featured given how the matchup warrants it. I don’t like making these broad comparisons often, but this spot feels eerily similar to 2020 when Washington traveled to Dallas to play on Thanksgiving with rookie RB Antonio Gibson as their featured back and he ripped off 100+ yards and three TDs. Not to say that Tracy will have THAT good of a game, but both Tracy and Gibson are converted receivers with explosive ability on teams that are being somewhat left for dead. As for the passing game, DeVito has an incredibly high sack rate in games that he has started and the Cowboys’ defense with Parsons back on the field could tee off on him if things take too long to develop. This should tend to make the Giants focus on the short passing game to Tracy and wide receivers Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson. The Giants are unlikely to play with accelerated tempo, as their focus will be on ball control and limiting negative plays. Their pass rate will likely be average or slightly below, but the nature of their passes should be relatively conservative with the Dallas pass rush and secondary rounding into form.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Thursday, Nov 28th 8:20pm Eastern
Dolphins ( 21.75) at
Packers ( 25.25)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Miami’s offense is finally starting to click, and they have played themselves back into the playoff picture in the AFC.
- The Dolphins offense has become less concentrated this season with the emergence of TE Jonnu Smith as a consistently involved player, while veteran WR Tyreek Hill continues to have a down season for his standards.
- The Packers are having a terrific season but are shockingly in third place in their own very competitive division with an 8-3 record.
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs has had 20+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
- Packers WR Romeo Doubs, who plays the most snaps and runs the most routes of any player in their receiving corps, is likely to miss this game with a concussion.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
Miami’s offense has evolved a bit in 2024, as they are finally getting consistent reps with the core of their team on the field. At the start of the year, they were using free agent acquisition TE Jonnu Smith in a rotational role with limited targets, and then QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a scary concussion in Week 2 that shattered the offense for over a month. When Tua first returned to the field, the offense was exceptionally conservative with the plays they called and the situations they put him in while they leaned on their running game and play calling to create advantages. Since Tua’s return, the Dolphins lost their first two games against current division leaders Arizona and Buffalo by 1 point and 3 points and have since won three straight games to get back into the AFC playoff picture. The Dolphins were last in the league in scoring, averaging just under 12 points per game, when Tua returned to the field in Week 8. Since then, the Dolphins have averaged 29 points per game in their last five outings.
Miami’s offense has changed from 2023 in two very specific ways. First of all, their backfield has a true bell cow with explosive second-year RB De’Von Achane dominating touches and usage while games are still in question. In previous seasons, the Dolphins had always preferred more of a “committee” approach when health allowed it. This year, veteran Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright split time spelling Achane, but pretty much anytime it matters, you can expect Achane on the field, and the Dolphins actively scheme creative ways to get him the ball. The second major change is the addition of TE Jonnu Smith to the passing game as a consistent and impactful weapon, rather than last year’s dominance by receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins had a Week 6 bye. Since then, the receiving production for Miami looks like this::
- Jonnu Smith: 34 receptions for 395 yards and 4 TDs (on 42 targets)
- Tyreek Hill: 26 receptions for 285 yards and 2 TDs (on 34 targets)
- Jaylen Waddle: 20 receptions for 290 yards and 2 TDs (on 28 targets)
For all intents and purposes, Smith has been the top receiving option on this team after Achane since their bye week. This is a big distinction because, since the return of Tua, the Dolphins have significantly increased their pass rate and aggressiveness. Miami ranks 5th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four games. Tua ranks dead last (36th) out of all qualified passers in average intended air yards and has the fastest average time to throw in the NFL, stats that show you how quickly and efficiently he is getting the ball out of his hands. Put simply; the Dolphins use creative formations and pre-snap motions to keep defenses on their heels and focus on stretching them horizontally more than vertically as they play to the strengths of their personnel and keep Tua upright. This week, they face a Packers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in blitz rate while mixing up man and zone coverage, often altering their approach for their opponents. After the Dolphins passing game had their best outing of the season against the Patriots, who rank 2nd in the NFL in man coverage rate, I would expect a more zone-heavy approach from Green Bay in this spot. They are also likely to blitz at a low rate to keep the ball in front of them and avoid giving up big plays by bringing blitzes that the Dolphins quick hitters can beat for big plays.
How green bay Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Friday, Nov 29th 3:00pm Eastern
Raiders ( 14.25) at
Chiefs ( 27.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Oh boy. Black Friday’s game has the Raiders visiting the Chiefs for a 42.5 total game with Kansas City favored by 12.5, which means the Raiders are projected to score just 15 points. This is projected to be a fairly one-sided bloodbath, especially with the Raiders losing Gardner Minshew and turning to Aiden O’Connell at quarterback. The Chiefs defense has been one of the best units in the league and it seems like their offense might (finally) be turning a bit of a corner, while the Raiders…well…suck.
Kansas City
We’ll start with the Chiefs backfield, where they expect to get Isiah Pacheco back after his early season broken leg. What’s unclear is how the workload will split between Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and perhaps Samaje Perine and Carson Steele. I’d expect Steele to be removed from the rotation entirely and Perine to be relegated to a small role (at best). Keep in mind, both Hunt and Pacheco are capable pass catching backs in their own right, so he might just be hanging around in an emergency RB3 role with something like 0-3 touches as his range of outcomes. The matchup here is strong, and as a massive home favorite, that bodes well for the Chiefs run game, but the challenge is both Pacheco and Hunt are priced for pretty full workloads at $9,200 and $9,000, respectively. I’d be more interested in Pacheco than Hunt here as I think he likely gets the larger share of the workload (they were pretty confident he was ready to go last week but gave him one extra week just to be certain, so much like Nico Collins the other week, he could come back to a nearly-full workload). He also has a better per-touch upside as Hunt is fairly…well…slow at this point in his career. I would personally still leave Hunt in my player pool and try to get at least a couple percent of him. As for Pacheco, I’m sort of hoping industry projections will have him in a split. I think he’s going to get at least a 1A role, call it 15 or so touches as a floor, with upside for a full workload. He’s priced around the 1A level, so if he does get a full workload in this matchup he’s underpriced by probably $1k or so. I want to take the risk and play him.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Patrick Mahomes is coming off of his best performance of the season (or, well, at least from a fantasy point standpoint) as he picked apart the surprisingly feisty Panthers last week. The problem is, he’s only gone over 20 DK points twice this season and both of those times required a high volume of pass attempts and a cupcake matchup. He’s…fine, I guess. I mean, if you don’t want to play a lot of Raiders, that means you’ll have salary to work with and so he’s reasonable. The Chiefs wide receiver situation is a bit bizarre. Justin Watson is leading the team in offensive snaps at wide receiver but is averaging just 2 targets per game. He’s on the field a ton but hard to view him as anything more than a punt option. Xavier Worthy has been a disappointment in his rookie season, but bear with me a bit: he’s been coming on a little bit lately. He’s caught 8 of 11 targets in his last two games and added a carry in each game (he’s only caught 4 targets a game three times this season, twice in the last two weeks). So…maybe things are looking up? We know he has huge per-target upside as he can really score from anywhere. This could burn me because his floor is awful, but I think he’s a really interesting tournament play. Then we have recent acquisition DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster in roughly half-time roles. Hopkins’ role hasn’t grown as he’s been with the team for longer, so it’s unclear what’s going on here. Are they intentionally holding him back and waiting for the playoffs? Is he struggling to learn the playbook? Or, maybe they just don’t see him as being good enough to be a full-time player (which I very much doubt is true). Hopkins is earning targets when on the field and he’s played very well during his limited time with the Chiefs, catching 22 of 27 targets, so why isn’t he playing more? I have no earthly idea, and that leaves him in an awkward spot pricing-wise at $8,400, as that’s a tough price to pay for a guy only playing half the snaps. I’d consider him a contrarian tournament option. JuJu had a huge game earlier in the season after Rashee Rice went down but then he got hurt, and since returning in Week 11, he only has 3 targets despite playing only slightly fewer snaps than Hopkins.
At tight end, Travis Kelce has still looked plenty capable when needed but as we’ve noted before at OWS, it feels like the Chiefs are very much trying to limit his target volume. They gave him some early volume last week against the Panthers, but once they got a lead, Kelce disappeared from the passing game plan almost entirely. I think you’re hoping for him to hit on something like 6-8 targets at most. Now, the matchup is awesome, he’s super talented, and I think he can deliver a ceiling at $9,600. Keep in mind here we need to consider slate-specific pricing context, and that while Mahomes and Kelce both look a bit overpriced, if you aren’t going to play a lot of Raiders you have salary to spare, and if Las Vegas gets stomped, something like 15 points from Mahomes and/or Kelce could easily be optimal. Finally, TE2 Noah Gray has seen 9 targets in the last two weeks and has caught a whopping 4 touchdowns. Volume-wise, Gray is still a bit of a punt option but he’s on the field a lot and clearly has Mahomes’ trust in all areas of the field. I think I’d prefer Gray straight up to any of the Chiefs wide receivers except Hopkins and maybe Worthy.
Las Vegas
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Chargers ( 24) at
Falcons ( 23)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins was ruled out with the knee injury he suffered in last week’s loss to the Ravens.
- Chargers TE Will Dissly did enough in his practice progression (DNP, limited, full) to avoid an injury designation this week.
- The Falcons had a vast injury report this week but all seems to be copacetic heading into the weekend.
- The Falcons once-comfortable lead in the division has evaporated in two short weeks, now just one game in hand over the Buccaneers and two games over the Saints (with tie-breakers on both teams).
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers have been a team that has set the tempo with their defense while attempting to sustain drives on offense through a dynamic run game and short area passing attack. They haven’t really attempted downfield passing at great frequency until forced to (like at the end of halves or when trailing) or when they get just outside the red zone, an area where Quentin Johnston has truly flourished this season. The problem with that setup is they are now without one of the primary pieces that made that game plan so effective in J.K. Dobbins, replacing him with straight-ahead plodder Gus Edwards, rookie Kimani Vidal, and journeyman Hassan Haskins. That is likeliest to lead to more disruption on offense and fewer sustained drives than it is to lead to a sweeping change made from their play calling tendencies.
I don’t think it should be understated what the impact of losing this team’s primary rusher means to the Chargers moving forward. In my opinion, it makes their offense much more one-dimensional, an offense that strives to keep opponents off balance due to the threat of both Dobbins’ legs and Herbert’s elite arm. You lose the legs and the arm becomes less effective because teams don’t need as many bodies in the box or down near the line of scrimmage. Gus Edwards has forced a grand total of three missed tackles on 54 carries this season, Kimani Vidal has been inactive for seven of 11 games, and Hassan Haskins is career special teamer.
The Los Angeles aerial attack has evolved into a loose four-man scene, with rookie Ladd McConkey leading the way out of the slot. Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston are the “starting” perimeter receivers while Will Dissly has taken a stranglehold on the tight end repetitions in the absence of Hayden Hurst. Johnston has a clearly defined role that elevates just outside of the red zone while Palmer is more of a downfield/field stretcher option unlikely to see targets amass. That effectively leaves this offense as “McConkey or bust,” and it has been profitable to side with the bust side of that equation through the field’s infatuation with a rookie slot receiver. The matchup does align with McConkey’s skillset, but this is still a receiver who has not seen double-digit looks yet in his career and has only gone over 100 yards twice through 11 games.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
DFS+ Interpretation ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Steelers ( 21.5) at
Bengals ( 24.5)
Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The only notable injury on the Steelers side is LB Alex Highsmith (DNP) with an ankle.
- The Bengals notable injuries are OT Orlando Brown (LP) with a fibula, DT Sheldon Rankins (DNP) with an illness, and LB Logan Wilson (DNP) with a knee.
- This game has an interesting spread, with the 4-7 Bengals installed as 3-point favorites over the 8-3 Steelers.
- Joey Porter Jr. is likely to shadow Ja’Marr Chase on most of his routes. Porter has limited every WR that he has primarily shadowed this season.
- The Steelers backfield is a timeshare, but Jaylen Warren played the most snaps he’s seen this season last week.
- George Pickens is only the Steelers WR who gets any volume in an extremely run heavy offense.
- Tee Higgins is likely to see an uptick in opportunities because of Porter’s coverage on Chase.
- Chase Brown has played over 80% of the snaps since Zach Moss went down with an injury.
How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The 8-3 Steelers come into Week 13 off a disappointing loss to the Browns on Thursday night in the snow. Mike Tomlin’s teams have always played up and down to their competition. The Steelers three losses are against teams with a combined 12-22 record. The Ravens took care of business against the Chargers to move to 8-4, which makes winning this game of critical importance to the Steelers chances of winning the division. The edge focuses on offense because that’s what matters for fantasy football, but the true answer to “how will Pittsburgh try to win” is on defense. The Steelers defense is excellent, and it will have to match up against the Bengals strong offense. Whoever wins the “strength versus strength” side of the ball is likely to win the game. The most important part of that matchup will be Chase against Porter. If Porter can take away Chase, the Bengals offense will be playing left-handed. Last year in Week 12, Porter covered Chase on 86% of his routes, allowing two contested catches on two targets for 36 yards, with an average separation distance of 0.9 yards.
The Bengals have been hurt on the ground (22nd in DOVA) and wrecked through the air (27th in DVOA). The Bengals have been slightly easier to throw on than to run against, but the Steelers are helmed by Arthur Smith, which means it doesn’t really matter what the opponent does well. The Steelers play at a slow pace (26th in seconds per play) and hate passing (30th in PROE). Those things aren’t going to change week to week, making Pittsburgh’s offense one of the easiest to predict. Smith runs an offense that only Troy Aikman could love, but in fairness to Smith, his strength as an offensive coordinator has been getting the best out of his offensive line. The Steelers offense live has been middling (18th ranked by PFF), but when you consider how many injuries they’ve suffered (two season-ending injuries to starters), and that they are starting rookies at center and guard, Smith deserves credit for having this unit functioning around league average. The Bengals have a weak pass rush (30th in sack percentage) and the Steelers should be able to win in the trenches. Expect a typical Arthur Smith game plan, based on running the ball at high rates and not making mistakes on offense.
How Cincinatti Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Texans ( 24) at
Jaguars ( 21)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Week 13 but reports are that he is likely to play.
- Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson picked up a shoulder injury in the team’s Week 12 contest. After managing a week of limited practice showings, he drew a questionable tag for Week 13.
- The Texans have allowed a league-worst 14 passing touchdowns outside the red zone this season (shout out to Rich Hribar on that pull, which came from the Searching for Ceiling pod Friday morning).
HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Texans still maintain an identity rooted in their defense due to head coach DeMeco Ryans’ lineage. Beyond that, the team is still feverishly held back by Bobby Slowik’s play-calling tendencies, which continues to place the team in too many long down-and-distance situations throughout the course of a game. This is often something the unreal talents of C.J. Stroud can overcome against lesser opponents, but it has been this team’s kryptonite against stronger teams for the last two seasons. Furthermore, a once great strength of this team was its red-zone defense, something that has slipped all the way to 30th in the league this season (67.86% red-zone touchdown rate allowed).
Joe Mixon has one of the most robust running back workloads in the league this season, averaging 20.6 carries and 3.8 targets per game. Furthermore, he has seen the second-most red-zone opportunities, including seven goal-line carries. That has left him with the second-most expected fantasy points and second-most actual fantasy points per game in 2024. Mixon, like many other backs in the league, also has stark splits in production in wins versus losses, amassing 26.54 fantasy points per game in the five wins he has played in (missed three games) and 18.88 fantasy points per game in four losses. With the Texans instilled as 3.5-points road favorites, Mixon sets up well to see both volume and production against a Jaguars team allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Nico Collins has played in just five fully healthy games this season. In those five games, the stud wide receiver is averaging 116.2 yards an 0.6 touchdowns per game. The dude also has two touchdowns called back from penalty this season. He has scored 20.2 DK points or more in four of those five healthy games, averaging a robust 24.02 DK points per game in fully healthy games this season. Basically, step aside CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill, there’s a new alpha in town. Collins is just as likely as any of the top names at the position to put up a score that helped you take down a GPP any time he takes the field, and a matchup against an opponent he has already hung a 12-151-1 line on this year should not change that. Tank Dell, Hutchinson, and Dalton Schultz round out the pass-catching corps, all playing truly complementary roles to the alpha wide receiver, with none of the secondary cast returning a single usable fantasy week this season.
How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::
DFS+ Interpretation ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Cards ( 20.75) at
Vikings ( 24.25)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Vikings TE Josh Oliver (ankle/wrist) will miss his second consecutive game in Week 13.
- Cardinals RB Emari Demercado (back) got in a full week of limited sessions but is still listed as questionable for Week 13.
- The structural matchup between the Arizona offense and the Minnesota defense is about as rough as they come.
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
I’ll just keep saying it until something changes, but the Cardinals are borderline elite when it comes to the structure of their run game and borderline incompetent when it comes to the structure of their pass offense. That could spell legitimate trouble against a Vikings defense allowing the fewest rush yards per game (74.7) and forcing the eighth highest pass rate over expectation this season. In other words, this is one of the worst on-paper matchups for the Cardinals and we have to question their ability to overcome the clear structural mismatch.
Somewhat shockingly, the Cardinals have lost by seven or more points just four times all season. In those four games, James Conner has just one “normal workload,” which came in a Week 4 blowout loss to the Commanders (42-14). Conner’s workload in the other three games in which the Cardinals lost by seven or more points this season: nine carries and one target in a 20-13 loss to the Lions, seven carries and five targets in a 34-13 loss to the Packers, and seven carries and five targets in a 10-point loss to the Seahawks in Week 12. In other words, Conner averages 21.14 opportunities per game when the Cardinals are not getting blown out and 13.25 opportunities per game when the Cardinals lose by seven or more points this season. The Cardinals are currently instilled as 3.5-point road dogs, but things do not set up well for their offense here.
Since erupting for 130 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 2, rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has seen double-digit targets once and gone over 100 yards through the air once, giving him two games all season of returning a 4x salary multiplier on his now-depressed Week 13 salary. The truth of the matter is he is not really being used in a way that maximizes his skill set, with a high rate of seven-to-nine routes that have left him with an inflated 13.7 aDOT. With poor layering of routes underneath, opposing defenses are typically able to bracket those intermediate-to-downfield routes and minimize his impact on the game, something that will need to change before I view him as anything more than a highly talented young receiver held down by the structure of his offense. What that has left the door open for, however, is Trey McBride underneath. Even so, McBride has zero receiving touchdowns (he has two touchdowns this year, a two-yard carry and when he fell on a fumble in the end zone in Week 2) and has also returned a 4x salary multiplier only twice all year. Only Michael Wilson joins those two as a near every-down pass-catchers, typically held to sub-optimal snap and route participation rates.
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
DFS+ Interpretation ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Colts ( 22) at
Patriots ( 19.5)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Patriots have NINE players who were limited in practice all week and are listed as questionable for Week 13, including WR DeMario Douglas. Some things never change, New England.
- Colts WRs Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin have both been ruled out, while WR Alec Pierce is listed as questionable after a full practice Friday that followed two DNPs early in the week.
- The Indianapolis offense is fundamentally structured differently than it was earlier in the season with Richardson under center, and we are here for every minute of it!
- The Patriots rank third in the league in man coverage rates on defense at a robust 39.8%.
- Adonai Mitchell has been the Colts top weapon against man coverage and he is now stepping into a more prominent role in the offense due to injuries to Downs and Dulin (and maybe Pierce, too?).
How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::
As we’ve touched on the previous two weeks, this Colts offense is functionally and fundamentally different in Anthony Richardson’s second stint as the starter. The offense is now built around the strengths Richardson possesses in stark contrast to what we saw to start the season when the offense appeared to be more geared toward developing his current shortcomings. No longer are the Colts trying to meticulously train Richardson into a pocket passer, a leap all NFL-level quarterbacks must make to become mainstays in the league. No, now this team is dialing up insane levels of run-pass options and play action, built to leverage his freakish athletic ability. They are getting him out of the pocket on designed roll-outs, designed to manipulate the second level of the opposing defense and make his reads easier. They are manipulating linebackers with pre-snap motion instead of having those motions fall flat with little threat of intermediate work. This is what we signed up for on Richardson, and I’m not sure the field (or general public or fantasy community) has fully caught onto those truths. Yeah, we were there first, baby.
While nothing in the role of Jonathan Taylor has meaningfully changed through the three different seasons we’ve seen from the Colts this year (Richardson to start the year in a handcuffed scheme, then Flacco in that same offense, and now Richardson in the new-look offense), consistency with volume has the been few and far between, largely due to wildly shifting game environments the Colts have found themselves in. Taylor ranks first in the league in opportunity share at a ridiculous 89.3%, with game scripts holding him to “modest” 17.9 carries and 2.4 targets per game marks. The Colts are also blocking to solidly above average marks, generating 2.10 yards before contact per attempt. The Patriots continue to be more middle of the pack than atrocious against the run, typically victimized by increased volume on the ground more than they are from a per-attempt standpoint. Even so, Taylor’s modest-to-poor pass game involvement keeps him in the yardage-and-touchdown range, meaning he will likely need to hit the rushing bonus and score multiple touchdowns to return a GPP-viable score, something he has done just once all season.
Things get really interesting for me through the air. Adonai Mitchell has been the team’s top weapon against man coverage this year, by a nautical mile. He has seen a ridiculous 0.56 targets per route run, 3.50 yards per route run, and 0.57 fantasy points per route run against man this season, also ranking near the top of the league in ASS (average separation score) against man. He should be stepping into at least a 70% snap rate with Josh Downs sidelined, and maybe more depending on the status of Alec Pierce. I expect Pierce to play after logging a full practice Friday, but the fact he was unable to take the field in any capacity through the first two practice sessions of the week is telling of his level of health. We’ve seen wide receivers play after missing the first two practices this year (DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett come to mind), typically with muted efficiency and route participation rates. As such, I expect Michael Pittman and Mitchell to lead the team in snap rate and route participation rate against the Patriots, with Mitchell the clearest option through the air against man coverage (Michael Pittman has understandably pedestrian marks against man this year – 0.29 FP/RR, 1.09 YPRR, 0.21 TPRR). The tight end room remains a frustrating split amongst three bodies, sapping all of the upside from the group.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
DFS+ Interpretation ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Hawks ( 20) at
Jets ( 21.5)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf followed up consecutive missed practices with full showings Friday, heading into the weekend absent a game designation.
- Jets LT Tyron Smith (neck) was ruled out for Week 13.
- Jets RB Breece Hall (knee) went DNP, limited, full in practice this week and ultimately drew the questionable tag. I expect him to play with no limitations, barring setback.
HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Seahawks rank fifth in pass attempts per game (36.9), second in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and second in pass yards per game (257.2). Unlike the Bengals, however, they have struggled to score this season, tied for 24th in pass touchdowns per game at 1.1. Save the excuses and the regression (progression?) talks, at some point we have to be honest with what teams are showing us on the field. Quarterback Geno Smith has a passing touchdown in all but two games but has also thrown multiple touchdowns only twice all season. Furthermore, after scoring 23 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Seahawks have failed to score more than 20 points in any of their previous four games. Even so, the Seahawks currently find themselves atop the tight NFC West at 6-5, holding the tie-breaker over the Cardinals as things currently stand. It’s insane how the division has fallen this season, with it almost certainly to send just one team to the postseason. In fact, only the Seahawks (+2) and Cardinals (+8) currently hold a positive scoring differential this year. Woof. With that, every game for the rest of the season is precious to these Seahawks, starting with a brutal matchup with the Jets (at least offensively).
Speaking only to workload, Kenneth Walker is probably $500 too cheap on DraftKings. The biggest problem is Walker’s scoring opportunities have almost completely dried up in this most recent four-game stretch, managing just one touchdown on 80 opportunities over the previous four games. The matchup also doesn’t do Walker any favors against a Jets defense allowing just 1.59 yards before contact and 18.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Even at a somewhat depressed salary, there are better places to spend on this slate. Finally, the Seahawks now find themselves as the worst run-blocking offensive line in the league, with just 1.10 yards before contact per attempt.
I’ve struggled all season to diagnose Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role in this offense. At least for now (maybe even finally?), his role appears to have grown. Over this most recent four-game stretch, JSN has seen his aDOT grow to 11.0 (8.8 on the season) while seeing a tidy 34.2% first-read target rate, 0.70 fantasy points per route run, and 3.33 yards per route run. That’s while still playing almost 85% of his snaps from the slot. That’s important against the Jets as their perimeter corners are some of the best in the game, which has them operating as a true slot funnel through the air. Metcalf clearly is not fully healthy yet after a mid-season injury, failing to practice through Thursday of this week before logging a full practice Friday. Since returning from injury after the team’s Week 10 bye and two missed games, Metcalf has caught 11 of 14 targets for 129 scoreless yards in less prohibitive matchups than he’ll find in Week 13. Lockett has not seen more than six targets since Week 6 and tight end Noah Fant has not seen more than six targets all season, making this offense extremely concentrated at the top.
How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern
Titans ( 19.5) at
WFT ( 25.5)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Commanders RB Austin Ekeler (concussion) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, meaning he was still experiencing symptoms and making it highly unlikely he would play in Week 13.
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (ankle) did not practice Wednesday but returned as a full participant Thursday.
- The Titans are extremely banged up on defense, with five starters listed on the injury report Wednesday.
- Commanders WR Noah Brown was added to the injury report Thursday as a non-participant with a knee injury.
- Commanders RB Brian Robinson (ankle) was limited in both early practices this week.
- Titans RB Tyjae Spears (concussion) is listed as questionable after consecutive full practices to end the week.
- Since Week 4, the Commanders have allowed the second most rush yards while holding teams to the fifth fewest pass yards.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
In three games since returning as the starter under center, Will Levis has pass attempts of 23, 31, and 24, clearly indicating how Brian Callahan would like to try to win games. In fact, the Titans have just two games all season with a positive pass rate over expectation, primarily floating in the neutral-to-negative range. But the Titans have largely been forced into this offensive stance considering their team composition, with a defense allowing the second fewest yards per game but the sixth most points per game, mostly due to an offense that has given the ball away at the second highest rate this season.
Tyjae Spears returned to practice for the first time since suffering a concussion in Week 11, managing consecutive full showings to end the week. He should return to a normal workload against the Commanders. That removes a lot of the allure of Tony Pollard, who saw opportunity counts of 22, 24, 31, and 29 in the four games without Spears this season. Spears isn’t overly likely to see a robust workload on a weekly basis more than what his presence does to sap the upside from this backfield, which is important considering the Commanders have allowed the second most rush yards since Week 4. Again, nothing really jumps off the page here.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored in six of his previous seven games, entering a near-every-down role in Week 8 following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. Even so, he has returned just one GPP-viable score in that stretch. Calvin Ridley has returned three GPP-viable scores this season, two of which have come since the departure of Nuk. That said, he has seen double-digit targets just once all season, with the likeliest range that puts him in the six to nine target envelope. His high aDOT (16.3) effectively keeps his weekly range of outcomes wide, something we typically look to attack at lower ownership. The problem is that the Commanders function as a “force you to march the field” defense while allowing the fourth fewest pass yards since Week 4. Slot receiver Tyler Boyd and the tight end unit have combined for exactly zero GPP-viable scores this season.
How washington Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 4:05pm Eastern
Bucs ( 26.5) at
Panthers ( 19.5)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Bucs are coming off a convincing road victory over the Giants and are in position to make a run at the NFC South with a soft on-paper schedule to end the season.
- Carolina played arguably its best game of the season in Week 12 against the AFC-leading Chiefs, taking the game down to the wire in a 30-27 loss.
- Panthers rookie RB Jonathon Brooks played only five snaps in his debut, notching just two carries as Chuba Hubbard maintained his workhorse role.
- Bucs rookie RB Bucky Irving is coming off the best game of his career despite continuing to split work with teammates Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
- Mike Evans returned to the lineup in Week 12 and looked fully healthy in a game where he wasn’t needed as the Bucs ran all over the Giants. This could be a smash spot for Evans with high volume and downfield targets against a team that will have to sell out to slow down the run.
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Tampa Bay has had a bit of a rollercoaster season. The Bucs have a 5-6 record and are a game back in the NFC South, but they lost both matchups against the division-leading Falcons, which means they lose the tie-breaker and would need to win the division outright. Their remaining schedule is extremely soft, as their Week 15 matchup with the Chargers is the only game they have left against a team with a winning record. The combined record of the teams they play in their other five remaining games is 17-39. The Falcons have a couple of tough games and are far from a dominant team themselves, making it likely that the Bucs can take advantage of the soft schedule and stay in NFC South contention through the end of the season.
The Bucs emerged from their Week 11 bye to face a Giants team that was throwing in the towel on their season. They racked up over 450 yards of offense as Baker Mayfield was surgical, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt, and the running game led by Irving accumulated four rushing touchdowns. In the first game back for Evans since Chris Godwin left the lineup, the Bucs’ receiving corps consisted of Evans in his usual “X” receiver role, veteran Sterling Shepard in the slot, and explosive rookie Jalen McMillan in the “Z” role that Godwin previously held. Irving and White split the backfield fairly evenly with Irving far more efficient in his opportunities, while Tucker popped in to steal a goal-line TD.
The Bucs face a Carolina defense that has been abused all season, ranking dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA as they are 32nd against the run and 30th against the pass. Last week the Carolina offense finally came to life, but the defense once again struggled as they allowed 30 points for the sixth time in 11 games and surrendered the best fantasy game of the season for Patrick Mahomes. The Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the season, and with Evans back and Carolina likely able to at least generate a little bit of offense, we should expect the Bucs to come out fairly aggressively in this matchup. Evans should be the main focus of the passing game and heavily involved, while tight end Cade Otton is highly trusted and the Panthers have been dusted up by the position this season, ranking 31st in the NFL in DVOA against opposing tight ends. The Bucs appear to be expanding the role for Irving, as he has at least three receptions in five straight games while catching six balls just last week, many of which were on plays designed for him and not just “dump offs”. As the Bucs’ season is basically on the line every week and Irving is separating himself with his high level of play, we should expect him to stay heavily involved and be the focal point of the offense along with Evans and Otton.
How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 4:05pm Eastern
Rams ( 25.75) at
Saints ( 23.25)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- New Orleans had a bye in Week 12 but won back-to-back games heading into its bye week with home wins over the Falcons and Browns.
- The Saints’ offense relies heavily on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill to drive their production and has a good matchup against a Rams defense that just gave up a historic performance to Saquon Barkley.
- To no one’s surprise, Los Angeles has been playing much better offensively with its main players back on the field. The Saints’ defense has struggled tackling in the running game and just gave up nearly 400 yards to the Browns’ passing game.
- The Rams’ secondary is most susceptible to perimeter wide receivers, potentially setting up Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a third consecutive game with a long touchdown.
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Rams are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles where their shortcomings were exposed on both sides of the ball. The Eagles’ pass rush exposed the Rams’ offensive line, sacking Matthew Stafford five times and disrupting a passing game that had been humming along since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned. The defense, which had also been playing well, was run through by the Eagles and gave up nearly 500 yards of offense, including over 300 rushing yards. The Rams’ season is teetering on the brink with a 5-6 record and a game against the Bills waiting for them in Week 14. They need to survive this upcoming stretch to give themselves a shot down the stretch, as they close the year with three games against division opponents over the last four weeks. The NFC West is a tight race right now with all four teams within a game of each other and none seemingly in a spot to run the table, meaning a 10-7 or 9-8 record will likely win the division. This gives the Rams very little margin for error and makes this week’s game in New Orleans close to a “must-win” if they want to stay alive.
The Rams’ passing game has been doing the heavy lifting recently and workhorse RB Kyren Williams has only rushed for 100 yards in a game once this season, after doing so in six of his 12 regular-season appearances in 2023. The last couple of weeks have been interesting, as the Rams were running well early against the Eagles but game script forced them to abandon it as Philadelphia was scoring almost every time it touched the ball en route to 37 points. The Rams rank fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four games, no surprise with their star receivers back on the field. The Saints play man coverage at a top-10 rate and the Rams’ WRs and scheme are able to consistently expose that approach with creative pre-snap motions and alignments that put defenders in tough situations and give Kupp and Nacua the ability to rack up yards after the catch. Two weeks ago against the Patriots (who play primarily man coverage), Nacua and Kupp combined for 15 receptions for 229 yards and three TDs while Matthew Stafford had his season high in yards per pass attempt and generated his second four-TD game since his dynamic receiving duo returned. The Rams’ offense should be able to get Williams going in this matchup against the league’s 31st-ranked DVOA run defense, which should complement the passing game well and open up the play-action opportunities for the intermediate and deep areas of the field that can sometimes be taken away when the Rams struggle to run the ball. Despite the strong matchup on the ground, the Rams’ offense will rely on the passing game to a high degree, as that is where their bread is buttered at this point. In any event, Los Angeles should be able to move the ball well in this matchup, with multiple paths to chunk plays.
How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 4:25pm Eastern
Eagles ( 23.5) at
Ravens ( 26.5)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- This is an interesting matchup between two of the top-3 rushing offenses in the league, who are facing two top-10 run defenses.
- The Ravens and Eagles are both coming off national TV wins in Week 12, with the Ravens playing on a short week after traveling to Los Angeles to face the Chargers.
- This game’s over/under of 51 is over three points higher than the next closest game on the main slate.
- Baltimore is trailing Pittsburgh in their own division, while Philadelphia has a 2.5 game lead on the Commanders – but this game is highly critical for both teams for playoff positioning, momentum, etc.
- The status of Eagles WR DeVonta Smith will heavily impact their likely approach and player usage.
- Baltimore has a bye in Week 14, which means they have two weeks to rest after this game and can be liberal with their player usage.
How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles offense is really starting to hum and just had arguably their best game of the season with a 37-20 dominant performance against the Rams. Saquon Barkley’s talents playing alongside the dual threat aspect of Jalen Hurts, and behind one of the top offensive lines in the game is borderline unfair. Last week, Barkley had an incredible 302 total yards from scrimmage, with 255 of them coming on the ground. To make the night even more impressive, the Eagles amassed nearly 500 yards of offense despite playing without wide receiver DeVonta Smith. In his absence, A.J. Brown had a relatively dominant performance of his own on the perimeter but wasn’t really needed during the second half while Barkley ran wild. The Eagles scored on seven of nine possessions, including all four times they had the ball in the second half, and have now scored 26 or more points in six consecutive games.
The Eagles offense is not trying to hide what they want to do, as they rank 31st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation. Barkley and Hurts are everything to this offense as they lean on the ability of their offensive line to create holes and use misdirection between the two to hold linebackers for each other. The ability of this offense to get these dynamic athletes to the second level is something to behold. Philadelphia’s offense struggled earlier this year when A.J. Brown was out. His presence is essential to forcing defenses to play them honest and not just totally load the box. Sunday Night Football announcer Cris Collinsworth said it perfectly last week, “There are guys who you can’t cover and there are guys that you can’t tackle once they make a catch…..A.J. Brown just so happens to be both of those guys.” These three create everything for the Eagles offense. The presence of DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert makes them even more potent but the “Big 3” are what makes them special.
This week against the Ravens will be a tougher task for the Eagles than last week. Baltimore was one of the league’s bigger pass funnels early in the season as their run defense was very strong, and their secondary was depleted and getting torched by opponents who were relentlessly attacking them. Things have tightened up a bit for the Ravens in recent weeks, as they have held three of their last four opponents below 250 passing yards with 6.5 yards per pass attempt or less allowed in each of those games. Baltimore now ranks 8th in run defense DVOA and a below average but respectable 19th in pass defense DVOA. The Bengals high powered and aggressive passing offense has dusted them up twice this year, but against less talented and/or more run-heavy offenses in recent weeks, the Ravens have done pretty well. The Eagles will have an interesting dynamic as their preferred method of attack is likely to struggle in the early going. How aggressive they decide to be through the air will likely depend in large part on how much they trust their defense, which is dealing with some injuries in the secondary right now. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni will likely try to slow things down and control the tempo rather than getting into a shootout with Lamar Jackson on his home turf, but may not have much of a choice in the matter.
How baltimore Will Try To Win ::
DFS+ Interpretation ::
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 8:20pm Eastern
49ers ( 19) at
Bills ( 25.5)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The 49ers travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Sunday night in a 44.5 total game with the home team favored by 6. The big question is if Brock Purdy will return from his 1-game absence. As I write this on Friday afternoon, he just got in a full practice, and coach Kyle Shanahan said it looks likely that he will play. I’m going to assume he is playing. We may see the spread get closer between now and game time due to this news, and I definitely hope that’s how it plays out because it will sure make things more interesting.
Buffalo
On the Bills side of things, James Cook is in one of the weirder running back rolls in the league, as he’s only reached even a modest 60% snap count once this season and yet he’s gone over 20 touches four times. His carry counts are odd – 17+ four times, but 12 or fewer every other game. That’s probably just random distribution, but it’s kind of strange seeing how there’s no middle ground. What I think we can count on him for is 11 carries and 3 targets – that’s been about his floor, and so at $9,600, he’s clearly overpriced for his floor. But we also know there’s a ceiling well beyond that (he has two games of 28.5+ DK points this season). He also, finally, is a Bills running back with a solid goal-line role who is not giving way to Josh Allen all the time – Cook has 14 carries inside the 5 while Allen has 3. There’s still some vulture threat here, of course, but not as significant as we’re used to seeing from Buffalo. Cook makes me nervous as a play because for $9,400 his floor is much lower than most other running backs who we see priced around here, but the ceiling is elite, and as a large home favorite that boosts his likelihood of reaching it (The Bills winning has not been a guarantee of lots of work for Cook, but all four of his 20+ touch games have come in Bills wins and three of them have come in fairly close wins). Backing him up are Ty Johnson and Ray Davis, with Johnson playing the larger role but Davis having performed better and having more per-touch upside. I would definitely only play 1 of the backup RBs in a lineup.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, it’s a story of “who even knows” with the Bills. Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out and rookie Keon Coleman is questionable, though he got three limited practices this week so he at least has a chance to return from his 2-game absence. Without those two we saw Buffalo deploy a wide receiver corps of Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins. Shakir led the team in snaps last week as Cooper is eating into Hollins’ workload – he’s primarily a slot receiver so his per-target upside is most but the volume is solid for him, averaging 9 targets per game over Buffalo’s last five games. Shakir also has double-digit DK points in all but one game on the season. You have to feel good about the floor here, the price is reasonable, and if the ceiling is only decent at least he doesn’t have to compete with a full slate of players. Shakir is the epitome of a “fine” option – he isn’t super exciting, and you’ll almost certainly need a touchdown in order for him to really help you win a tournament, but he’s also extremely unlikely to hurt you. I’d be tempted to just lock him in smaller field tournaments, but you could consider an underweight position in large field and hope he doesn’t end reaching the level needed to be optimal. Amari has now played three games with Buffalo (while missing two others), has topped out at 51% of the snaps, and has a total of 10 targets. I have to think his role will grow (why else did they bother acquiring him?) and with a full week after his 2-game absence, perhaps he’s ready to step into a larger role. This is, in my opinion, the spot to buy on him – he’s just $7,200 and you’re taking some risk by being early rather than waiting to see a bigger role first, but being early on players is how you win DFS tournaments. There’s risk here but also tourney-winning upside and he’s way too cheap. Samuel and Hollins both seem playable as value options. After basically doing nothing all season, Samuel (finally) has 14 targets in the last two games. At just $4,400 he’s underpriced – he’s almost like a cheaper Shakir, really, with similar per-target production but at roughly half the price. Hollins fills a deep threat role and while he’s had a couple of productive weeks in Amaris’ absence, his snaps are the most clearly impacted by Amari playing more, which pushes him more toward punt territory.
At tight end, Dawson Knox is back in a nearly full-time role with Kincaid out. That resulted in 6 targets last week, a very nice number for $4,000. Quintin Morris can be used as an MME punt option as can Zach Davidson if he gets called up from the practice squad again. The TL;DR here is that while the Buffalo running game is a bit overpriced, the entire passing game is underpriced.
San Francisco
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
Kickoff Monday, Dec 2nd 8:15pm Eastern
Browns ( 17.75) at
Broncos ( 23.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Our holiday week closes out with the Browns visiting the Broncos for a 41.5 total game with Denver favored by 5.5 points. This is a game that feels like it has some barbell-shaped outcomes. Denver’s offense overall has not been great (22 points per game, 19th in the league) but they have five games of 26+ points and a couple over 30 (as well as some total disasters). The Broncos defense has been great but since Jameis Winston took over, Cleveland has struggled against the Chargers and Saints while putting up 24 on the Steelers and 29 on the Ravens. This one could go in a lot of different directions as each offense is capable of outbursts but also quite capable of struggling. Let’s see if we can figure it out and finish Week 13 strong.
Denver
On the Broncos side, their run game has gone really weird. A couple of games ago it looked like Javonte Williams was losing his job to Audric Estime, but then Estime completely vanished last week with just 5 offensive snaps while Javonte went back over 50% in Denver’s last two games. He’s not really getting a lot of run, though, with just 14 and 12 opportunities in those two games (and those were both games that Denver controlled and won handily). Jaleel McLaughlin is still around, playing modest snaps and handling something like 4-7 carries per game, while Estime is also getting a few carries despite barely playing any snaps at all. This is a 3-way backfield that isn’t generating enough production for anyone – only one Denver running back has reached 20 DK points all year (Javonte in Week 7), and only 3 times has a Denver back scored even 15 DK points (all Javonte). The best you can say for it is that pricing has adjusted, with lead back Javonte down at just $6,800. If you want to try and fish here, fine, but there’s really nothing that makes these guys stand out. Any running back who finds the end zone at these prices has a pretty decent chance of making it into an optimal lineup. If I’m betting here, Javonte is the favorite for touches and thus touchdowns, but really I’m treating all of these guys as fairly thin tournament options with extremely modest floors but the potential to find their way into a winning lineup with an end zone trip. Good luck.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Bo Nix has been exceptionally good of late. In his last five games, he has a 11:1 TD:INT ratio and he’s gotten his season numbers up to 6.4 yards per pass attempt (not great, but approaching respectability). The Broncos really spread the ball around in their passing offense – a LOT – but Courtland Sutton has really been the apple of Nix’s eye with a 25.1% target share (and 39.4% air yards share – that’s 7th in the NFL, and his 17 red zone targets rank 2nd). His aDOT is robust and we know the way to beat Cleveland’s defense is through deep passing (thanks to JM and his now-famous Quentin Johnston call a couple of weeks ago). He’s my favorite overall play on Denver, in part because of the robustness of his role, but also in part because literally nobody else has a solid role. Denver is running a 5-WR, 3-TE rotation currently – that’s 8 pass catchers to go along with their 3 running backs (oh, and fullback Michael Burton gets involved every once in a while too). In descending order of snaps, the wide receivers are Devaughn Vele, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Tony Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr. Vele has shown a lot of promise so far this year, but he’s only averaging 5 targets per game – that gives him some floor but with Sutton hogging the red zone usage, ceiling is hard to find. He is coming off of his best game so far, putting up 6/80/0 against the Raiders on 9 targets, so there’s optimism that as with many rookies he’ll continue to ascend in the second half of the season. He’s my 2nd favorite Bronco. Humphrey has an elite name but not much else going for him with a low-aDOT, low-volume role of ~3.5 targets/game. Franklin’s role is similar to Humphey’s though with a little more per-target oomph – he’s at least capable of breaking a longer one, giving him some ceiling (with no floor). And then we come to Mims, who as we’ve known since last season has a very legitimate ceiling on 2-3 targets per game because he’s a threat to house one from anywhere (and, again, Cleveland’s weakness is against deep passing). Of these bottom three, Mims is actually my favorite. None of these guys have any real floor, so I’ll go with the guy who’s the cheapest and who has actually shown a ceiling at the NFL level. To be clear, they’re all super risky tournament plays. None of them are “great” plays. But I’ll have more Mims than I will Humphrey or Franklin.
The Broncos tight end situation is pretty gross for DFS purposes. Adam Trautman is playing the most snaps but is primarily a blocking TE. Nate Adkins and Lucas Krull are more capable pass catchers but aren’t playing a lot. Trautman has 15 targets in 12 games, Adkins has 7, and Krull has 14. These guys are all just MME sprinkles for me, though Krull has the edge both in name awesomeness and in volume.
Cleveland
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.