Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The only notable injury on the Steelers side is LB Alex Highsmith (DNP) with an ankle.
- The Bengals notable injuries are OT Orlando Brown (LP) with a fibula, DT Sheldon Rankins (DNP) with an illness, and LB Logan Wilson (DNP) with a knee.
- This game has an interesting spread, with the 4-7 Bengals installed as 3-point favorites over the 8-3 Steelers.
- Joey Porter Jr. is likely to shadow Ja’Marr Chase on most of his routes. Porter has limited every WR that he has primarily shadowed this season.
- The Steelers backfield is a timeshare, but Jaylen Warren played the most snaps he’s seen this season last week.
- George Pickens is only the Steelers WR who gets any volume in an extremely run heavy offense.
- Tee Higgins is likely to see an uptick in opportunities because of Porter’s coverage on Chase.
- Chase Brown has played over 80% of the snaps since Zach Moss went down with an injury.
How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The 8-3 Steelers come into Week 13 off a disappointing loss to the Browns on Thursday night in the snow. Mike Tomlin’s teams have always played up and down to their competition. The Steelers three losses are against teams with a combined 12-22 record. The Ravens took care of business against the Chargers to move to 8-4, which makes winning this game of critical importance to the Steelers chances of winning the division. The edge focuses on offense because that’s what matters for fantasy football, but the true answer to “how will Pittsburgh try to win” is on defense. The Steelers defense is excellent, and it will have to match up against the Bengals strong offense. Whoever wins the “strength versus strength” side of the ball is likely to win the game. The most important part of that matchup will be Chase against Porter. If Porter can take away Chase, the Bengals offense will be playing left-handed. Last year in Week 12, Porter covered Chase on 86% of his routes, allowing two contested catches on two targets for 36 yards, with an average separation distance of 0.9 yards.
The Bengals have been hurt on the ground (22nd in DOVA) and wrecked through the air (27th in DVOA). The Bengals have been slightly easier to throw on than to run against, but the Steelers are helmed by Arthur Smith, which means it doesn’t really matter what the opponent does well. The Steelers play at a slow pace (26th in seconds per play) and hate passing (30th in PROE). Those things aren’t going to change week to week, making Pittsburgh’s offense one of the easiest to predict. Smith runs an offense that only Troy Aikman could love, but in fairness to Smith, his strength as an offensive coordinator has been getting the best out of his offensive line. The Steelers offense live has been middling (18th ranked by PFF), but when you consider how many injuries they’ve suffered (two season-ending injuries to starters), and that they are starting rookies at center and guard, Smith deserves credit for having this unit functioning around league average. The Bengals have a weak pass rush (30th in sack percentage) and the Steelers should be able to win in the trenches. Expect a typical Arthur Smith game plan, based on running the ball at high rates and not making mistakes on offense.
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