Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Bucs are coming off a convincing road victory over the Giants and are in position to make a run at the NFC South with a soft on-paper schedule to end the season.
- Carolina played arguably its best game of the season in Week 12 against the AFC-leading Chiefs, taking the game down to the wire in a 30-27 loss.
- Panthers rookie RB Jonathon Brooks played only five snaps in his debut, notching just two carries as Chuba Hubbard maintained his workhorse role.
- Bucs rookie RB Bucky Irving is coming off the best game of his career despite continuing to split work with teammates Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
- Mike Evans returned to the lineup in Week 12 and looked fully healthy in a game where he wasn’t needed as the Bucs ran all over the Giants. This could be a smash spot for Evans with high volume and downfield targets against a team that will have to sell out to slow down the run.
HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Tampa Bay has had a bit of a rollercoaster season. The Bucs have a 5-6 record and are a game back in the NFC South, but they lost both matchups against the division-leading Falcons, which means they lose the tie-breaker and would need to win the division outright. Their remaining schedule is extremely soft, as their Week 15 matchup with the Chargers is the only game they have left against a team with a winning record. The combined record of the teams they play in their other five remaining games is 17-39. The Falcons have a couple of tough games and are far from a dominant team themselves, making it likely that the Bucs can take advantage of the soft schedule and stay in NFC South contention through the end of the season.
The Bucs emerged from their Week 11 bye to face a Giants team that was throwing in the towel on their season. They racked up over 450 yards of offense as Baker Mayfield was surgical, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt, and the running game led by Irving accumulated four rushing touchdowns. In the first game back for Evans since Chris Godwin left the lineup, the Bucs’ receiving corps consisted of Evans in his usual “X” receiver role, veteran Sterling Shepard in the slot, and explosive rookie Jalen McMillan in the “Z” role that Godwin previously held. Irving and White split the backfield fairly evenly with Irving far more efficient in his opportunities, while Tucker popped in to steal a goal-line TD.
The Bucs face a Carolina defense that has been abused all season, ranking dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA as they are 32nd against the run and 30th against the pass. Last week the Carolina offense finally came to life, but the defense once again struggled as they allowed 30 points for the sixth time in 11 games and surrendered the best fantasy game of the season for Patrick Mahomes. The Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the season, and with Evans back and Carolina likely able to at least generate a little bit of offense, we should expect the Bucs to come out fairly aggressively in this matchup. Evans should be the main focus of the passing game and heavily involved, while tight end Cade Otton is highly trusted and the Panthers have been dusted up by the position this season, ranking 31st in the NFL in DVOA against opposing tight ends. The Bucs appear to be expanding the role for Irving, as he has at least three receptions in five straight games while catching six balls just last week, many of which were on plays designed for him and not just “dump offs”. As the Bucs’ season is basically on the line every week and Irving is separating himself with his high level of play, we should expect him to stay heavily involved and be the focal point of the offense along with Evans and Otton.
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