Kickoff Sunday, Dec 1st 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
22) at

Patriots (
19.5)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Patriots have NINE players who were limited in practice all week and are listed as questionable for Week 13, including WR DeMario Douglas. Some things never change, New England.
  • Colts WRs Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin have both been ruled out, while WR Alec Pierce is listed as questionable after a full practice Friday that followed two DNPs early in the week.
  • The Indianapolis offense is fundamentally structured differently than it was earlier in the season with Richardson under center, and we are here for every minute of it!
  • The Patriots rank third in the league in man coverage rates on defense at a robust 39.8%.
  • Adonai Mitchell has been the Colts top weapon against man coverage and he is now stepping into a more prominent role in the offense due to injuries to Downs and Dulin (and maybe Pierce, too?).

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve touched on the previous two weeks, this Colts offense is functionally and fundamentally different in Anthony Richardson’s second stint as the starter. The offense is now built around the strengths Richardson possesses in stark contrast to what we saw to start the season when the offense appeared to be more geared toward developing his current shortcomings. No longer are the Colts trying to meticulously train Richardson into a pocket passer, a leap all NFL-level quarterbacks must make to become mainstays in the league. No, now this team is dialing up insane levels of run-pass options and play action, built to leverage his freakish athletic ability. They are getting him out of the pocket on designed roll-outs, designed to manipulate the second level of the opposing defense and make his reads easier. They are manipulating linebackers with pre-snap motion instead of having those motions fall flat with little threat of intermediate work. This is what we signed up for on Richardson, and I’m not sure the field (or general public or fantasy community) has fully caught onto those truths. Yeah, we were there first, baby.

While nothing in the role of Jonathan Taylor has meaningfully changed through the three different seasons we’ve seen from the Colts this year (Richardson to start the year in a handcuffed scheme, then Flacco in that same offense, and now Richardson in the new-look offense), consistency with volume has the been few and far between, largely due to wildly shifting game environments the Colts have found themselves in. Taylor ranks first in the league in opportunity share at a ridiculous 89.3%, with game scripts holding him to “modest” 17.9 carries and 2.4 targets per game marks. The Colts are also blocking to solidly above average marks, generating 2.10 yards before contact per attempt. The Patriots continue to be more middle of the pack than atrocious against the run, typically victimized by increased volume on the ground more than they are from a per-attempt standpoint. Even so, Taylor’s modest-to-poor pass game involvement keeps him in the yardage-and-touchdown range, meaning he will likely need to hit the rushing bonus and score multiple touchdowns to return a GPP-viable score, something he has done just once all season.

Things get really interesting for me through the air. Adonai Mitchell has been the team’s top weapon against man coverage this year, by a nautical mile. He has seen a ridiculous 0.56 targets per route run, 3.50 yards per route run, and 0.57 fantasy points per route run against man this season, also ranking near the top of the league in ASS (average separation score) against man. He should be stepping into at least a 70% snap rate with Josh Downs sidelined, and maybe more depending on the status of Alec Pierce. I expect Pierce to play after logging a full practice Friday, but the fact he was unable to take the field in any capacity through the first two practice sessions of the week is telling of his level of health. We’ve seen wide receivers play after missing the first two practices this year (DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett come to mind), typically with muted efficiency and route participation rates. As such, I expect Michael Pittman and Mitchell to lead the team in snap rate and route participation rate against the Patriots, with Mitchell the clearest option through the air against man coverage (Michael Pittman has understandably pedestrian marks against man this year – 0.29 FP/RR, 1.09 YPRR, 0.21 TPRR). The tight end room remains a frustrating split amongst three bodies, sapping all of the upside from the group.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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