Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Bucs offense has shown signs of life the last two weeks and will try to match the show the Bills put on last week against these Steelers.
- The lack of pass rush for the Steelers without TJ Watt will be a huge problem for them trying to slow down Tom Brady and Co.
- The Steelers offense is going to continue to struggle to form an identity if they keep falling behind in games.
- Pittsburgh has a tough decision to make in how to attack the Bucs, with a very difficult matchup for the passing game and a running game that may be the worst in the NFL.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Tampa Bay offense appears to be firing again, with their core offensive players healthy and starting to get in sync. A matchup with the Falcons funneled the Bucs heavily towards the pass, as Tom Brady threw the ball 52 times compared to only 20 “non-kneel” rushing plays, a 73% pass rate, in a game that they never trailed and were ahead by multiple scores for about two-thirds of the game. This week, they face a Steelers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, having just given up 424 passing yards to Josh Allen and the Bills, with a whopping 348 of those yards coming in the first half!!! What that tells us is that the Bucs, favored by eight points on the road in this matchup, should have the opportunity to attack the Steelers in whatever manner they choose.
After a slow offensive start to the season for the Bucs, they hold the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation over the last two weeks since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both returned to the lineup. While the volume has returned, the passing game didn’t quite hit last week in the massive way that we occasionally saw it hit in previous years due to some bad touchdown luck and a couple of missed opportunities. They look good but are still just a bit shy of the well-oiled machine that a fully functioning Bucs passing game usually operates as. This week, they should have a chance to fully resurrect. The Steelers defense has become a shell of itself without TJ Watt, as they currently have PFF’s 23rd-graded pass rush despite an opening week performance where they dominated the Bengals (the only game in which Watt played). After seven sacks in that opening game, the Steelers have only three total sacks in the last four games. This will be a critical aspect of this game as the Bucs offensive line has struggled against some better pass rushes this year, but if Tom Brady is given a clean pocket with his weapons at his disposal then he is likely to pick up right where Josh Allen left off.
The Bucs are a team that follows the spirit of their leader, Tom Brady, and is aggressive and goes for the kill when they smell blood. It is hard to imagine a scenario where they watch last week’s film from the Steelers game against the Bills and don’t come out firing and trying to tear the lid off the game. The Bucs have thrown at a high rate only recently, but for the season they are playing at a torrid pace, ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds-per-snap and 8th in situation-neutral pace of play.
How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- QBs vs TB: Dak (134:0:1) // Winston (236:1:3) // Rodgers (255:2:1) // Mahomes (249:3:1) // Mariota (147:1)
- In a blowout loss to BUF, Pickett threw for 327:0:1 in his first career start
- TB ranks 1st in def pass DVOA, another tough matchup after facing 6th ranked BUF
- PIT is a 9 pt home underdog
- Home underdogs of 7+, implied for under 20 pts since 2014: 113 QBs average 14.6 DK pts with 38.9% consistency in hitting expectation, just 13 have scored 25+ (11.5%)
- 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
- 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
- 2022 WRs vs TB: Lamb (29), Brown (68) // Olave (80), Thomas (65:1) // Doubs (73:1), Lazard (45:1) // MVS (63), Juju (46) // Zacchaeus (39:1), London (35)
- PIT tg in Pickett start: Diontae (13) // Claypool (9) // Pickens (8)
- Pickens has 102 and 83 yds after a slow start with Trubisky
- Diontae has one game over 60 yds this season
- Tracking the Bowles TB rush def::
- TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
- In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
- In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
- In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
- 2022 TB run defense appears to currently be a step below what those previous 3 teams have been
- Top RBs vs 2022 TB: Elliott (10:52) // Ingram (10:60) // Jones/Dillon (24:68) // CEH (19:92:1), Pacheco (11:63) // Allgeier (45)
- TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
- 2022 TB has allowed just 17 rec for 58 yds, TD
- Najee yds: 26:1 // 89 // 61 // 74 // 36
- Warren yds: 7 // 15 // 33 // 22 // 63
- Brady scored multiple TDs in 15/19 games in 2021
- Brady passed for 250+ yds in 14/19 games (10/19 over 300yds)
- Brady in 2022: 212:1:1 // 190:1 // 271:1 // 385:3 // 351:1
- QBs vs PIT: Burrow (338:2:4) // Mac (252:1:1) // Brissett (220:2) // Z Wilson (252:1:2) // Allen (424:4:1)
- In 10 games vs Tomlin’s Steelers, Brady has averaged 319 yds, 2.7 TDs per game
- Brady has been favored on the road 20 times as a Buc, scoring 25+ DK pts in 9 of them, and 30+ in 7 of them
- PIT ranks 18th in def pass DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most completed air yds
- 5 WRs already have 100+ yds vs PIT, and another 3 have 75+ yds
- Chase (129:1) // Agholor (110:1), Meyers (95) // Cooper (101:1) // C Davis (75:1) // G Davis (171:2), Diggs (102:1), Shakir (75:1)
- TB targets last two weeks: Evans (18) // Godwin (16) // Gage (10) // Miller (7)
- TB yds last two weeks: Evans (184:2) // Godwin (120) // Gage (44) // Miller (35)
- Evans DK pts in the 9 aforementioned Brady games: 5.7 // 19.7 // 20 // 43.1 // 20.9 // 21.6 // 12.8 // 16.9 // 14.7
- Fournette’s 2021 season::
- 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
- 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
- Fournette in 2022::
- Rushing: 21:127 // 24:65 // 12:35 // 3:-3 // 14:56:1
- Receiving: 2:10 // 2:9 // 5:35 // 7:57:1 // 10:83:1
- After allowing 96 RB rec yds to CIN in W1, PIT has allowed just 64 RB rec yds in 4 g since
- Rushing vs PIT: CIN (86) // NE (118:1) // CLE (160:1) // NYJ (81:1) // BUF (80:1)
- Fournette’s 9 g as road favorite since 2021 (DK scores): 6.4 // 16.8 // 30.7 // 7.3 // 17.2 // 47.1 // 22.2 // 18.7 // 9.4
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