Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
18.5) at
Packers (
26)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is a matchup of the fastest and slowest paced teams.
  • The Packers play calling is highly game flow dependent.
  • Both running games are set up for success.
  • Breece Hall is taking over the Jets backfield and is mispriced for his role and talent.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-2 Jets. Is that a typo? Nope, just checked, the Jets are really 3-2. They’ll let anyone have a winning record these days. Unfortunately for Robert Saleh’s Jets, their record is deceptive, having lost decidedly to the Bengals/Ravens, while recording victories against the Browns (epic collapse), the Steelers (played the first half with Mitch Trubisky), and the Dolphins (third-string QB). The Jets first two wins were by a combined five points, before finally getting a win going away against the Dolphins using Skylar “Days of our Lives” Thompson at QB. The Jets are lucky to be 3-2 but if you ask Robert Saleh, they’ve been “punching people in the mouth.”

One thing Saleh does appear to have figured out is that Zach Wilson isn’t very good at football. The Jets want to run the ball regardless of who is playing QB, but it’s clear they are more willing to open things up with Joe Flacco. The Jets called run/pass splits of 17/59, 20/44, and 20/52 in their first three games. In the past two games with Wilson, the same splits have been 29/36 and 33/21. Game flow has something to do with those numbers but the change at QB more fully explains the switch in offensive philosophy. The Jets are going to be a run-heavy team with Wilson under center, especially if they can keep the game within two scores.   

The Jets have played at the fastest overall pace in the league to start the year. Is that a typo? Nope, just checked, the Jets really are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL. They’ll let anyone play fast these days. The Jets are living up to their name and flying to the line of scrimmage, playing in the top ten in pace in all situations. In particular, it stands out how fast they’re playing when ahead (2nd in total pace), which shows the Jets are going to play with tempo regardless of the score. 

The Packers have been solid against the pass (11th in DVOA) but trampled on the ground (30th in DVOA). The Packers secondary is led by Jaire Alexander who once again holds a top 25 position grade per PFF. The rest of the secondary is more solid than spectacular but there is no reason to attack the relative strength of a defense while they grade out so poorly against the run. The Packers present as a run funnel defense that forces teams to pass by taking a lead. Saleh is hoping to keep things close and hide Zach Wilson. Expect a “mouth punching” game plan from the Jets for as long as possible, with a chance they stay run heavy even down by multiple scores.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Third highest game total in Week 6
  • GB’s implied total of 26.5 is the third highest
  • NYJ’s implied total of 19.5 is tied for the fifth lowest
  • GB -7 is the third widest spread
  • NYJ ranks seventh in fewest adj. seconds/play, GB ranks 32nd (per numberFire)
  • NYJ ranks 20th in PROE, GB ranks 21st
  • GB ranks seventh in avg. time of possession, NYJ ranks 21st
  • NYJ ranks 11th in ppg, GB defense ranks 11th in ppg allowed
  • GB ranks 22nd in ppg, NYJ defense ranks tied for 18th in ppg allowed
  • GB ranks ninth in ypg, NYJ defense ranks 10th in ypg allowed
  • NYJ ranks 12th in ypg, GB defense ranks fifth in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the GB offensive line as the fifth best, NYJ ranked at 25th
  • The GB defense is ranked 12th by PFF, NYJ ranks 14th

Zach Wilson

  • 10th in PFF passing grade
  • 30th in PFF grade when under pressure
  • Ranks 12th in Pass EPA/play, 30th in CPOE, & sixth in ADoT (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Wilson’s ($5,300) game logs (in chronological order): 18/36:252:1:2 // 14/21:210 (plus a rushing TD)
  • Scored 20+ DK pts three times in 15 games, but yet to hit 25 pts
  • GB ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two QBs have hit 275+ yds
  • None have scored 20 DK pts

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Elijah Moore 86.1% // Tyler Conklin 84.8% // Corey Davis 76.7% // Garrett Wilson 60.9%
  • Target share: Wilson 20.1% // Conklin 14% // Davis 13.6% // Moore 13.6%
  • Redzone targets: Wilson 9 // Davis 3 // Moore 3 // Braxton Berrios 2 // Conklin 1
  • Wilson ($5,000) ranks 14th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 8/14:102:2 // 6/11:60 // 2/6:41 // 3/4:27
  • Moore ($4,900) ranks seventh in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 3/5:41 // 4/9:49 // 3/4:53 // 1/4:11
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary three times in 15 games
  • Davis ($4,800) ranks sixth in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 2/4:83:1 // 2/5:27 // 5/6:74:1 // 2/4:38
  • Scored 4x his DK salary twice in 14 games since 2021
  • GB ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Three WRs have hit 75+ yds
  • Notable scores: Russell Gage 25.7 // Justin Jefferson 42.4
  • Conklin’s ($3,400) last four game logs: 6/9:40 // 8/8:84 // 3/5:52 // 0/1:0
  • His 9.2 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • Scored 15+ DK pts three times since 2021
  • GB ranks third in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only Cameron Brate has hit 25+ yds (5/6:52)
  • None have hit 12 DK pts

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Michael Carter 51.8% // Breece Hall 51%
  • Rush share: Hall 54.4% // Carter 45.6%
  • Target share: Hall 13.6% // Carter 9.8%
  • Redzone touches: Hall 13 // Carter 10
  • Hall ($5,800) ranks 21st in rush share, 11th in RYOE/carry, 15th in broken tackle %, eighth in high value touch %, ninth in target share, first in air yard share, first in ADoT, third in WOPR, first in YPRR, & third in TPRR (per 4for4, min 50 carries)
  • His last four game logs: 7:50 & 1/1:10:1 // 8:39 & 6/11:53 // 17:66:1 & 2/6:12 // 18:97:1 & 2/2:100
  • His 17 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Among RBs with just 30 carries, Carter ($5,000) ranks eighth in broken tackle %, fourth in high value touch %, 16th in target share, 17th in air yard share, 19th in ADoT, 17th in WOPR, 17th in YPRR, & 12th in TPRR
  • His last four games: 7:23 & 5/5:27 // 11:39 & 1/2:7 // 9:15 & 2/3:14 // 10:21:2 & 2/2:12
  • Carter’s snaps have declined in each week this season
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts just once in 19 games (32.2 vs. CIN in Week 8 2021)
  • GB ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Five RBs have hit 60+ yds: Rhamondre Stevenson 66 // Saquon Barkley 70 // Damien Harris 86 // Dalvin Cook 90 // David Montgomery 122
  • None have hit 20 DK pts

Aaron Rodgers

  • Eighth in PFF passing grade
  • Ninth in PFF grade when under pressure
  • Ranks 11th in CPOE & 32nd in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • NYJ kept Skylar Thompson under pressure on 60% of his dropbacks in Week 5
  • Rodgers’s ($6,100) last four game logs: 19/25:234:2 // 27/35:255:2:1 // 21/35:251:2:1 // 25/39:222:2
  • Yet to hit 20 DK pts this year
  • Under LaFleur, in 30 home games as a favorite, Rodgers has scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary 11 times
  • NYJ ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just one QB has hit 230+ yds (Joe Burrow had 275)
  • None have scored 25+ DK pts

GB Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Allen Lazard 73.4% // Romeo Doubs 73.1% // Randall Cobb 45% // Robert Tonyan 44.3%
  • Target share: Doubs 16.8% // Lazard 14.5% // Cobb 14.5% // Tonyan 11.6%
  • Redzone targets: Doubs 5 // Tonyan 5 // Lazard 3 // Cobb 1
  • Lazard ($6,000) ranks 14th in air yard share, 13th in ADoT, & 24th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 2/3:13:1 // 4/6:45:1 // 6/8:116 // 4/8:35:1
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary twice in 46 games with LaFleur
  • Cobb ($4,400) ranks 12th in YPRR & 23rd in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 3/3:37 // 2/2:57 // 3/4:42 // 7/13:99
  • Scored 4x his DK salary twice in last 16 games
  • NYJ ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Four WRs have hit 90+ yds
  • Notable scores: Devin Duvernay 21.4 // Tyler Boyd 23.5
  • Tonyan ($3,600) ranks 12th in TPRR
  • His last four games: 2/2:11 // 6/7:37 // 2/2:22:1 // 4/4:23
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts five times since 2020 (33 games)
  • NYJ ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Harrison Bryant 45 // Mark Andrews 52 // Pat Freiermuth 85
  • Notable scores: Andrews 10.2 // Freiermuth 15.5

GB Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 63.3% // AJ Dillon 50.5%
  • Rush share: Dillon 50.8% // Jones 49.2%
  • Target share: Jones 11% // Dillon 8.1%
  • Redzone touches: Jones 12 // Dillon 10
  • Jones ($7,600) ranks second in RYOE/carry, 12th in broken tackle %, 13th in high value touch %, 13th in target share, 19th in air yard share, 16th in ADoT, 14th in WOPR, 22nd in YPRR, & 23rd in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 15:132:1 & 3/3:38:1 // 12:36 & 3/4:11 // 16:110 & 3/4:5 // 13:63 & 2/3:17
  • His 15.8 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts three times since Dillon joined the team (2020)
  • In 19 games as a home favorite since 2020, he’s averaged 20.7 DK ppg
  • Dillon ($5,600) ranks 24th in rush share, 24th in RYOE/carry, 17th in broken tackle %, & 24th in broken tackles
  • His last four games: 18:61 & 1/3:6 // 12:32 & 2/3:6 // 17:73 & 1/2:11 // 6:34
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times in 31 games
  • NYJ ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 70+ yds: Najee Harris 74 // Nick Chubb 87 // Raheem Mostert 113
  • Notable scores: Mostert 22.2 // Chubb 32.3